Evaluation of a revision of the BSPcast decision support system for control of brown spot of pear

Control of brown spot of pear requires fungicide treatments of pear trees during the growing season. Scheduling fungicide sprays with the Brown spot of pear forecasting system (BSPcast) provides significantfungicide savings but does not increase the efficacy of disease control. Modifications in BSPcast wereintroduced in order to increase system performance. The changes consisted of: (1) the use of a daily infectionrisk (Rm≥0.2) instead of the 3-day cumulative risk (CR≥0.4) to guide the fungicide scheduling, and (2) theinclusion of the effect of relative humidity during interrupted wetness periods. Trials were performed during2 years in an experimental pear orchard in Spain. The modifications introduced did not result in increaseddisease control efficacy, compared with the original BSPcast system. In one year, no reduction in the numberof fungicide applications was obtained using the modified BSPcast system in comparison to the original system, but in the second year the number of treatments was reduced from 15 to 13. The original BSPcast model overestimated the daily infection risk in 6.5% of days with wetness periods with low relative humidity during the wetness interruption, and in these cases the modified version was more adequate

Application of a support system to the design of wastewater treatment plants

This paper presents a case study that explores the advantages that can be derived from the use of a design support system during the design of wastewater treatment plants (WWTP). With this objective in mind a simplified but plausible WWTP design case study has been generated with KBDS, a computer-based support system that maintains a historical record of the design process. The study shows how, by employing such a historical record, it is possible to: (1) rank different design proposals responding to a design problem; (2) study the influence of changing the weight of the arguments used in the selection of the most adequate proposal; (3) take advantage of keywords to assist the designer in the search of specific items within the historical records; (4) evaluate automatically thecompliance of alternative design proposals with respect to the design objectives; (5) verify the validity of previous decisions after the modification of the current constraints or specifications; (6) re-use the design records when upgrading an existing WWTP or when designing similar facilities; (7) generate documentation of the decision making process; and (8) associate a variety of documents as annotations to any component in the design history. The paper also shows one possible future role of design support systems as they outgrow their current reactive role as repositories of historical information and start to proactively support the generation of new knowledge during the design process

Present and future methodology for the implementation of decision support systems for traffic management

Real-time predictions are an indispensable requirement for traffic management in order to be able to evaluate the effects of different available strategies or policies. The combination of predicting the state of the network and the evaluation of different traffic management strategies in the short term future allows system managers to anticipate the effects of traffic control strategies ahead of time in order to mitigate the effect of congestion. This paper presents the current framework of decision support systems for traffic management based on short and medium-term predictions and includes some reflections on their likely evolution, based on current scientific research and the evolution of the availability of new types of data and their associated methodologies.

Decision Support Methods for Global Optomization

Immobile location-allocation (LA) problems is a type of LA problem that consists in determining the service each facility should offer in order to optimize some criterion (like the global demand), given the positions of the facilities and the customers. Due to the complexity of the problem, i.e. it is a combinatorial problem (where is the number of possible services and the number of facilities) with a non-convex search space with several sub-optimums, traditional methods cannot be applied directly to optimize this problem. Thus we proposed the use of clustering analysis to convert the initial problem into several smaller sub-problems. By this way, we presented and analyzed the suitability of some clustering methods to partition the commented LA problem. Then we explored the use of some metaheuristic techniques such as genetic algorithms, simulated annealing or cuckoo search in order to solve the sub-problems after the clustering analysis

Simulación de departamentos de urgencias empleando un modelo basado en agentes

Los servicios de salud son sistemas muy complejos, pero de alta importancia, especialmente en algunos momentos críticos, en todo el mundo. Los departamentos de urgencias pueden ser una de las áreas más dinámicas y cambiables de todos los servicios de salud y a la vez más vulnerables a dichos cambios. La mejora de esos departamentos se puede considerar uno de los grandes retos que tiene cualquier administrador de un hospital, y la simulación provee una manera de examinar este sistema tan complejo sin poner en peligro los pacientes que son atendidos. El objetivo de este trabajo ha sido el modelado de un departamento de urgencias y el desarrollo de un simulador que implementa este modelo con la finalidad de explorar el comportamiento y las características de dicho servicio de urgencias. El uso del simulador ofrece la posibilidad de visualizar el comportamiento del modelo con diferentes parámetros y servirá como núcleo de un sistema de ayuda a la toma de decisiones que pueda ser usado en departamentos de urgencias. El modelo se ha desarrollado con técnicas de modelado basado en agentes (ABM) que permiten crear modelos funcionalmente más próximos a la realidad que los modelos de colas o de dinámicas de sistemas, al permitir la inclusión de la singularidad que implica el modelado a nivel de las personas. Los agentes del modelo presentado, descritos internamente como máquinas de estados, representan a todo el personal del departamento de urgencias y los pacientes que usan este servicio. Un análisis del modelo a través de su implementación en el simulador muestra que el sistema se comporta de manera semejante a un departamento de urgencias real.

Elicitation of subjective crop yield PDF

En este trabajo se investiga la coherencia y confiabilidad de estimaciones de funciones de densidad de probabilidad (FDP) subjetivas de rendimientos de cultivos realizadas por un amplio grupo de agricultores. Se utilizaron tres técnicas de elicitación diferentes: el método de estimación de FDP en dos pasos, la distribución Triangular y la distribución Beta. Los sujetos entrevistados ofrecieron estimaciones para los valores puntuales de rendimientos de cultivos (medio, máximo posible, más frecuente y mínimo posible) y para las FDP basadas en la estimación de intervalos. Para evaluar la persistencia, se utilizaron los conceptos de persistencia temporal y persistencia metodológica. Los resultados son interesantes para juzgar la adecuación de las técnicas de estimación de probabilidades subjetivas a los sistemas de ayuda en la toma de decisiones en agricultura.

Short communication. Persistence of point crop yield subjective estimates

En este trabajo se investiga la persistencia de las estimaciones puntuales subjetivas de rendimientos en cultivos anua- les realizadas por un amplio grupo de agricultores. La persistencia en el tiempo es una condición necesaria para la co- herencia y la confiabilidad de las estimaciones subjetivas de variables aleatorias. Los sujetos entrevistados estimaron valores puntuales de rendimientos de cultivos anuales (rendimientos medio, mayor, mínimo y más frecuente). Se han encontrado diferencias relativas poco importantes en todas las variables, excepto en los rendimientos mínimos, donde existe una alta dispersión. Los resultados son interesantes para estimar la adecuación de las técnicas de estimación de probabilidades subjetivas para ser utilizadas en los sistemas de ayuda en la toma de decisiones en agricultura.

Classifier combination for in vivo magnetic resonance spectra of brain tumours

In this paper we present a multi-stage classifier for magnetic resonance spectra of human brain tumours which is being developed as part of a decision support system for radiologists. The basic idea is to decompose a complex classification scheme into a sequence of classifiers, each specialising in different classes of tumours and trying to reproducepart of the WHO classification hierarchy. Each stage uses a particular set of classification features, which are selected using a combination of classical statistical analysis, splitting performance and previous knowledge.Classifiers with different behaviour are combined using a simple voting scheme in order to extract different error patterns: LDA, decision trees and the k-NN classifier. A special label named "unknown¿ is used when the outcomes of the different classifiers disagree. Cascading is alsoused to incorporate class distances computed using LDA into decision trees. Both cascading and voting are effective tools to improve classification accuracy. Experiments also show that it is possible to extract useful information from the classification process itself in order to helpusers (clinicians and radiologists) to make more accurate predictions and reduce the number of possible classification mistakes.

SQualTrack: A Tool for Robust Fault Detection

One of the techniques used to detect faults in dynamic systems is analytical redundancy. An important difficulty in applying this technique to real systems is dealing with the uncertainties associated with the system itself and with the measurements. In this paper, this uncertainty is taken into account by the use of intervals for the parameters of the model and for the measurements. The method that is proposed in this paper checks the consistency between the system's behavior, obtained from the measurements, and the model's behavior; if they are inconsistent, then there is a fault. The problem of detecting faults is stated as a quantified real constraint satisfaction problem, which can be solved using the modal interval analysis (MIA). MIA is used because it provides powerful tools to extend the calculations over real functions to intervals. To improve the results of the detection of the faults, the simultaneous use of several sliding time windows is proposed. The result of implementing this method is semiqualitative tracking (SQualTrack), a fault-detection tool that is robust in the sense that it does not generate false alarms, i.e., if there are false alarms, they indicate either that the interval model does not represent the system adequately or that the interval measurements do not represent the true values of the variables adequately. SQualTrack is currently being used to detect faults in real processes. Some of these applications using real data have been developed within the European project advanced decision support system for chemical/petrochemical manufacturing processes and are also described in this paper

Information systems for water resources management improvement in developing countries

Water resources management, as also water service provision projects in developing countries have difficulties to take adequate decisions due to scarce reliable information, and a lack of proper information managing. Some appropriate tools need to be developed in order to improve decision making to improve water management and access of the poorest, through the design of Decision Support Systems (DSS). On the one side, a DSS for developing co-operation projects on water access improvement has been developed. Such a tool has specific context constrains (structure of the system, software requirements) and needs (Logical Framework Approach monitoring, organizational-learning, accountability and evaluation) that shall be considered for its design. Key aspects for its successful implementation have appeared to be a participatory design of the system and support of the managerial positions at the inception phase. A case study in Tanzania was conducted, together with the Spanish NGO ONGAWA – Ingeniería para el Desarrollo. On the other side, DSS are required also to improve decision making on water management resources in order to achieve a sustainable development that not only improves the living conditions of the population in developing countries, but that also does not hinder opportunities of the poorest on those context. A DSS made to fulfil these requirements shall be using information from water resources modelling, as also on the environment and the social context. Through the research, a case study has been conducted in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia, an endhorreic basin 160 km south of Addis Ababa. There, water has been modelled using ArcSWAT, a physically based model which can assess the impact of land management practices on large complex watersheds with varying soils, land use and management conditions over long periods of time. Moreover, governance on water and environment as also the socioeconomic context have been studied.

A Negotiation Style Recommender Based on Computational Ecology in Open Negotiation Environments

The system described herein represents the first example of a recommender system in digital ecosystems where agents negotiate services on behalf of small companies. The small companies compete not only with price or quality, but with a wider service-by-service composition by subcontracting with other companies. The final result of these offerings depends on negotiations at the scale of millions of small companies. This scale requires new platforms for supporting digital business ecosystems, as well as related services like open-id, trust management, monitors and recommenders. This is done in the Open Negotiation Environment (ONE), which is an open-source platform that allows agents, on behalf of small companies, to negotiate and use the ecosystem services, and enables the development of new agent technologies. The methods and tools of cyber engineering are necessary to build up Open Negotiation Environments that are stable, a basic condition for predictable business and reliable business environments. Aiming to build stable digital business ecosystems by means of improved collective intelligence, we introduce a model of negotiation style dynamics from the point of view of computational ecology. This model inspires an ecosystem monitor as well as a novel negotiation style recommender. The ecosystem monitor provides hints to the negotiation style recommender to achieve greater stability of an open negotiation environment in a digital business ecosystem. The greater stability provides the small companies with higher predictability, and therefore better business results. The negotiation style recommender is implemented with a simulated annealing algorithm at a constant temperature, and its impact is shown by applying it to a real case of an open negotiation environment populated by Italian companies

Una explicación del conflicto social sobre energía eólica en la comarca de la Terra Alta en Cataluña

El estudio investiga las razones que explican un conflicto sobre la instalación de parques eólicos en Terra Alta, una comarca rural de Cataluña. Identificamos tres razones principales. Primero, y de acuerdo con el marco conceptual de ecología política, el conflicto eólico forma parte de un conflicto más generalizado sobre la ‘macro-concentración’ de instalaciones energéticas en el sur de Cataluña que generan energía y beneficios económicos principalmente para el centro del desarrollo económico catalán. Segundo, el impacto paisajístico de los proyectos eólicos choca con iniciativas locales que impulsan el paisaje como un activo valioso capaz de sustentar la vida en la comarca. Por último, desequilibrios de poder en el sistema formal de toma de decisiones sobre parques eólicos impiden la inclusión de valores locales como criterios en el proceso de toma de decisiones y eso también genera conflicto. Para un desarrollo sostenible de energía eólica, la importancia del potencial eólico como criterio principal de localización debe ser reevaluada, y la negociación de la distribución de beneficios debe hacerse en la forma más abierta posible.

Sistema intel•ligent d’ajuda a la decisió pel control remot de tecnologia de membranes per la depuració d’aigües

El principal objectiu del projecte consisteix en desenvolupar l’anàlisi, disseny,desenvolupament i implementació d’un sistema d’ajuda a la decisió (SAD) basat en elconeixement pel control remot i la supervisió de l’operació integrada d’estacionsdepuradores BRM (bioreactor de membranes) pe ra la depuració d’aigües residuals ambexigències de qualitat de reutilització de l’aigua tractada

Reasons for deploying an e-reader loan service at the UOC Library

The presentation will focus on the reasons for deploying an e-reader loan service at a virtual university library as a part of an e-learning support system to aid user mobility, concentration of documentary and electronic resources, and ICT skills acquisition, using the example of the UOC pilot project and its subsequent consolidation. E-reader devices at the UOC are an extension of the Virtual Campus. They are offered as a tool to aid user mobility, access to documentary and electronic resources, and development of information and IT skills. The e-reader loan service began as a pilot project in 2009 and was consolidated in 2010. The UOC Library piloted the e-reader loan service from October to December 2009. The pilot project was carried out with 15 devices and involved 37 loans. The project was extended into 2010 with the same number of devices and 218 loans (October 2010). In 2011 the e-reader loan service is to involve 190 devices, thus offering an improved service. The reasons for deploying an e-reader loan service at the UOC are the following: a) to offer library users access to the many kinds of learning materials available at the UOC through a single device that facilitates student study and learning; b) to enhance access to and use of the e-book collections subscribed to by the UOC Library; c) to align with UOC strategy on the development of learning materials in multiple formats, and promote e-devices as an extension of the UOC Virtual Campus, and d) to increase UOC Library visibility within and beyond the institution. The presentation will conclude with an analysis of the key issues to be taken into account at a university library: the e-reader market, the unclear business and license model for e-book contents, and the library's role in promoting new reading formats to increase use of e-collections.

Adaptive business intelligence for an open negotiation environment

Engineering of negotiation model allows to develop effective heuristic for business intelligence. Digital ecosystems demand open negotiation models. To define in advance effective heuristics is not compliant with the requirement of openness. The new challenge is to develop business intelligence in advance exploiting an adaptive approach. The idea is to learn business strategy once new negotiation model rise in the e-market arena. In this paper we present how recommendation technology may be deployed in an open negotiation environment where the interaction protocol models are not known in advance. The solution we propose is delivered as part of the ONE Platform, open source software that implements a fully distributed open environment for business negotiation