Efficient knowledge retrieval to calibrate input variables in forest fire prediction

Forest fires are a serious threat to humans and nature from an ecological, social and economic point of view. Predicting their behaviour by simulation still delivers unreliable results and remains a challenging task. Latest approaches try to calibrate input variables, often tainted with imprecision, using optimisation techniques like Genetic Algorithms. To converge faster towards fitter solutions, the GA is guided with knowledge obtained from historical or synthetical fires. We developed a robust and efficient knowledge storage and retrieval method. Nearest neighbour search is applied to find the fire configuration from knowledge base most similar to the current configuration. Therefore, a distance measure was elaborated and implemented in several ways. Experiments show the performance of the different implementations regarding occupied storage and retrieval time with overly satisfactory results.

Modelling of bird distribution under complex mediterranean landscape dynamics: open habitat birds and fire (MEDFIRE)

Report for the scientific sojourn at the Simon Fraser University, Canada, from July to September 2007. General context: landscape change during the last years is having significant impacts on biodiversity in many Mediterranean areas. Land abandonment, urbanisation and specially fire are profoundly transforming large areas in the Western Mediterranean basin and we know little on how these changes influence species distribution and in particular how these species will respond to further change in a context of global change including climate. General objectives: integrate landscape and population dynamics models in a platform allowing capturing species distribution responses to landscape changes and assessing impact on species distribution of different scenarios of further change. Specific objective 1: develop a landscape dynamic model capturing fire and forest succession dynamics in Catalonia and linked to a stochastic landscape occupancy (SLOM) (or spatially explicit population, SEPM) model for the Ortolan bunting, a species strongly linked to fire related habitat in the region. Predictions from the occupancy or spatially explicit population Ortolan bunting model (SEPM) should be evaluated using data from the DINDIS database. This database tracks bird colonisation of recently burnt big areas (&50 ha). Through a number of different SEPM scenarios with different values for a number of parameter, we should be able to assess different hypothesis in factors driving bird colonisation in new burnt patches. These factors to be mainly, landscape context (i.e. difficulty to reach the patch, and potential presence of coloniser sources), dispersal constraints, type of regenerating vegetation after fire, and species characteristics (niche breadth, etc).

Analysis of nonlinear noisy integrate & fire neuron models: blow-up and steady states

Nonlinear Noisy Leaky Integrate and Fire (NNLIF) models for neurons networks can be written as Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov equations on the probability density of neurons, the main parameters in the model being the connectivity of the network and the noise. We analyse several aspects of the NNLIF model: the number of steady states, a priori estimates, blow-up issues and convergence toward equilibrium in the linear case. In particular, for excitatory networks, blow-up always occurs for initial data concentrated close to the firing potential. These results show how critical is the balance between noise and excitatory/inhibitory interactions to the connectivity parameter.

Distributed fire detector system

Aquest treball pretén elaborar un sistema de detecció d'incendis implementat sota una xarxa de sensors sense fils. Aquesta xarxa està formada per petits dispositius autònoms equipats amb un transmissor de ràdio, un microcontrolador, diferents sensors (temperatura, lluminositat i efecte Hall) i alimentació per bateries (AA).

Hyperbolic reaction-diffusion equations for a forest fire model

Forest fire models have been widely studied from the context of self-organized criticality and from the ecological properties of the forest and combustion. On the other hand, reaction-diffusion equations have interesting applications in biology and physics. We propose here a model for fire propagation in a forest by using hyperbolic reaction-diffusion equations. The dynamical and thermodynamical aspects of the model are analyzed in detail

Mechanisms of antagonism of Pseudomonas fluorescens EPS62e against Erwinia amylovora, the causal agent of fire blight

Pseudomonas fluorescens EPS62e was selected during a screening procedure for its high efficacy in controlling infections by Erwinia amylovora, the causal agent of fire blight disease, on different plant materials. In field trials carried out in pear trees during bloom, EPS62e colonized flowers until the carrying capacity, providing a moderate efficacy of fire-blight control. The putative mechanisms of EPS62e antagonism against E. amylovora were studied. EPS62e did not produce antimicrobial compounds described in P. fluorescens species and only developed antagonism in King’s B medium, where it produced siderophores. Interaction experiments in culture plate wells including a membrane filter, which physically separated the cultures, confirmed that inhibition of E. amylovora requires cell-to-cell contact. The spectrum of nutrient assimilation indicated that EPS62e used significantly more or different carbon sources than the pathogen. The maximum growth rate and affinity for nutrients in immature fruit extract were higher in EPS62e than in E. amylovora, but the cell yield was similar. The fitness of EPS62e and E. amylovora was studied upon inoculation in immature pear fruit wounds and hypanthia of intact flowers under controlled-environment conditions. When inoculated separately, EPS62e grew faster in flowers, whereas E. amylovora grew faster in fruit wounds because of its rapid spread to adjacent tissues. However, in preventive inoculations of EPS62e, subsequent growth of EPS101 was significantly inhibited. It is concluded that cell-to-cell interference as well as differences in growth potential and the spectrum and efficiency of nutrient use are mechanisms of antagonism of EPS62e against E. amylovora

Illusory correlation in the remuneration of chief executive officers: It pays to play golf, and well

Illusory correlation refers to the use of information in decisions that is uncorrelated with the relevantcriterion. We document illusory correlation in CEO compensation decisions by demonstrating thatinformation, that is uncorrelated with corporate performance, is related to CEO compensation. We usepublicly available data from the USA for the years 1998, 2000, 2002, and 2004 to examine the relationsbetween golf handicaps of CEOs and corporate performance, on the one hand, and CEO compensationand golf handicaps, on the other hand. Although we find no relation between handicap and corporateperformance, we do find a relation between handicap and CEO compensation. In short, golfers earnmore than non-golfers and pay increases with golfing ability. We relate these findings to the difficultiesof judging compensation for CEOs. To overcome this and possibly other illusory correlations inthese kinds of decisions, we recommend the use of explicit, mechanical decision rules.

La Crema: A case study of mutual fire insurance

We analyze a mutual fire insurance mechanism usedin Andorra, which is called La Crema in the locallanguage. This mechanism relies on households'announced property values to determine how much ahousehold is reimbursed in the case of a fire andhow payments are apportioned among other households.The only Pareto eficient allocation reachablethrough the mechanism requires that all householdshonestly report the true value of their property.However, such honest reporting is not an equilibriumexcept in the extreme case where the property valuesare identical for all households. Nevertheless, as the size of the society becomes large, thebenefits from deviating from truthful reportingvanish, and all of the non-degenerate equilibriaof the mechanism are nearly truthful andapproximately Pareto efficient.

Self-organized criticality and synchronization in a coupled map lattice model of integrate-and-fire oscillators

We introduce two coupled map lattice models with nonconservative interactions and a continuous nonlinear driving. Depending on both the degree of conservation and the convexity of the driving we find different behaviors, ranging from self-organized criticality, in the sense that the distribution of events (avalanches) obeys a power law, to a macroscopic synchronization of the population of oscillators, with avalanches of the size of the system.

Synchronization, diversity, and topology of networks of integrate and fire oscillators

We study synchronization dynamics of a population of pulse-coupled oscillators. In particular, we focus our attention on the interplay between topological disorder and synchronization features of networks. First, we analyze synchronization time T in random networks, and find a scaling law which relates T to network connectivity. Then, we compare synchronization time for several other topological configurations, characterized by a different degree of randomness. The analysis shows that regular lattices perform better than a disordered network. This fact can be understood by considering the variability in the number of links between two adjacent neighbors. This phenomenon is equivalent to having a nonrandom topology with a distribution of interactions and it can be removed by an adequate local normalization of the couplings.

Tuning synchronization of integrate-and-fire oscillators through mobility

We analyze the emergence of synchronization in a population of moving integrate-and-fire oscillators. Oscillators, while moving on a plane, interact with their nearest neighbor upon firing time. We discover a nonmonotonic dependence of the synchronization time on the velocity of the agents. Moreover, we find that mechanisms that drive synchronization are different for different dynamical regimes. We report the extreme situation where an interplay between the time scales involved in the dynamical processes completely inhibits the achievement of a coherent state. We also provide estimators for the transitions between the different regimes.

Advances in UAS for forest fire fighting

Peer reviewed

Project SKY-EYE: applying UAVs to forest fire fighter support and monitoring

Peer reviewed

A subalpine rangeland bird community before and after fire: prescribed burning in the Eastern Pyrenees

High mountain rangelands host important populations of threatened bird species, but can be affected by extensive changes in land use. I studied the breeding bird community of two shrubland plots at 1,850–2,100 m a.s.l. in the Pyrenees. Breeding territories were mapped for four years, before and after the prescribed burning, the aim of which was to increase the grazing value of the study area. The most abundant species (reaching ≥3 breeding pairs/10 ha in at least one plot and one year) were Dunnock Prunella modularis, Dartford Warbler Sylvia undata, Stonechat Saxicola torquatus, Rock Bunting Emberiza cia and Ortolan Bunting E. hortulana. The open-shrubland plot contained a similar number of breeding species (10 vs.9), but a lower overall density (23 vs. 28 breeding pairs/10 ha) than the dense-shrubland plot. Most breeding species alsooccurred in winter. After fire, the number of bird species, overall density and conservation value (an index that takes into account all species’ densities and their categories of conservation concern in Europe) decreased, but tended to recover afterwards. These results may help understand the composition and dynamics of bird assemblages in managed mountain areas

Personality traits and psychopathology predict burnout symptoms after two years in a sample of Catalan police officers

The operational aspects of psychological assessment are well documented (e.g. Murphy and Davidshofer, 1994). Essentially, the process involves the administration of one or more valid psychological tests in order to assess a person’s suitability to a task or situation. The resulting data and report are then used by police psychologists to assist in determining the suitability of the applicant for police duties. In Catalunya, this task is carried out during basic training for police career agent in the evaluation of psychological conditions for the use of the weapon. Police work can be one of the most stressful jobs, and it frequently leads to the development of burnout syndrome. In their day-to-day tasks, police officers are constantly subjected to various stressors (de la Fuente, Aguayo, Vargas and Cañadas, 2013). The most widely accepted definition of the burnout syndrome is one that describes it as a response to chronic work stress made up of three components: emotional exhaustion, depersonalisation and low personal accomplishment (Maslach & Jackson, 1981). Some studies showed that personality characteristics, and positive and negative affectivity explained significant variance in each of the burnout dimensions (Alarcon, Eschleman and Bowling, 2009).