Leading indicator properties of US high-yield credit spreads

In this paper we examine the out-of-sample forecast performance of high-yield credit spreads regarding real-time and revised data on employment and industrial production in the US. We evaluate models using both a point forecast and a probability forecast exercise. Our main findings suggest the use of few factors obtained by pooling information from a number of sector-specific high-yield credit spreads. This can be justified by observing that, especially for employment, there is a gain from using a principal components model fitted to high-yield credit spreads compared to the prediction produced by benchmarks, such as an AR, and ARDL models that use either the term spread or the aggregate high-yield spread as exogenous regressor. Moreover, forecasts based on real-time data are generally comparable to forecasts based on revised data. JEL Classification: C22; C53; E32 Keywords: Credit spreads; Principal components; Forecasting; Real-time data.

Diversity of Vibrionaceae bacteria isolated from the haemolymph of the spider crab Maja brachydactyla

Aims: The aim of this study was to characterise and identify vibrios isolated from the haemolymph of apparently healthy adult spider crabs (Maja brachydactyla) wild-caught in the Spanish localities of Galician coast and in the Canary Islands and also from captive animals held at IRTA’s facilities in the Ebro Delta of Catalonia, north-west Spanish Mediterranean coast. Methods and Results: A total of 277 bacterial isolates were obtained, and of these, 171 were characterised with rep-PCR, resulting electrophoretic bands were analysed and clusters formed. Identification of representative strains of each cluster was made by sequencing the 16S rRNA. Samples from animals caught in Galicia and captive at IRTA (around 15–18 C) rendered mostly species belonging to the Splendidus clade (72Æ2 and 76Æ6% respectively), commonly found in cold waters (below 20 C). Higher species diversity was found in the haemolymph of the captive animals. In the warmer Canary Islands waters (around 21 C), the diversity of vibrios is dominated by three clades, Harveyi (Vibrio core group, 39Æ3%), Orientalis (23Æ2%) and Splendidus (21Æ4%) with a species diversity that equals that of the colder captive animals. Conclusions: Differences in the vibrios populations were found in the haemolymph extracted from animals collected from the three localities. Potential new species were found, and their description is under way. Significance and Impact of Study: As with other invertebrates, spider crabs also contain a diverse population of vibrios. These findings should help researchers to diagnose when a crab is infected.

Abundància i persistència de Faecalibacteriun prausnitzii en la Malaltia de Crohn

Faecalibacterium prausnitzii és un del bacteris anaeròbis més abundants entre les espècies comensals del tracte intestinal humà sa. Aquesta espècie és una de les principals productores de butirat a l'intestí (que és la principal font d’energia per als colonòcits), però també s'ha suggerit que pot produir compostos antiinflamatoris i intervenir en la regulació de vàries rutes metabòliques de l’hoste. F. prausnitzii és un bacteri difícil de cultivar, ja que presenta una elevada sensibilitat a l'oxigen i presenta uns requeriments nutricionals molt exigents, el que ha compromès considerablement el nombre d’estudis basats en aïllats d’aquesta espècie. No obstant això, en els darrers anys l’interès en aquest bacteri està creixent ja que s’ha evidenciat que les poblacions de F. prausnitzii són variables en diferents grups d'edat i que es veuen reduïdes en certs trastorns intestinals com ara la malaltia inflamatòria intestinal i el càncer colorectal. L’objectiu d'aquest treball ha estat aprofundir en el rol que desenvolupa F. prausnitzii com un dels principals bacteris comensals del tracte intestinal humà. En primer lloc, s’ha dissenyat, optimitzat i validat un nou mètode molecular per determinar l’abundància d’aquesta espècie en mostres del tracte gastrointesinal, i s’ha demostrat la seva possible aplicació per ajudar al diagnòstic de la malaltia de Crohn. En segon lloc, s’ha dut a terme un estudi de les característiques filogenètiques i fenotípiques dels aïllats de F. Prausnitzii disponibles en l'actualitat a fi de coneixre’n millor la diversitat genètica i fenotípica i dilucidar quins factors són crucials en comprometre la població d’aquest bacteri en un intestí malalt. L’anàlisi de les soques ha revelat que F. prausnitzii inclou Principalment dos filogrups, nutricionalment versàtils i molt sensibles a canvis en les condicions ecològiques que pot patir l’intestí de l’hoste sota certes malalties intestinals. En conclusió, els resultat obtinguts en aquest estudi mostren que F. prausnitzii és una espècie ben establerta al còlon sa, amb una elvada versatilitat metabòlica ja que és capaç d’ interactuar amb carbohidrats de diferent estructura i complexitat. S’ha corroborat que aquest microorganisme seria un bon indicador de salut intestinal ja que la seva abundància es veu significativament reduida en pacients amb malaltia de Crohn. Aquests resultats concorden amb els obtinguts per proves fisiològiques que mostren una elevada sensibilitat de l’espècie a determinades condicions relacionades amb malalties intestinals. Estudis futurs s’orientaran a comprendre millor quins factros derrivats de la interacció amb l’hoste també determinen la persistència d’aquesta espècie en un intestí sa o malalt.

Mathematical modeling and analysis of the interaction of populations of bacteria and bacteriophages within chicken intestine

Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document de l'arxiu adjunt

Indicator taxa of benthic diatom communities: a case study in Mediterranean streams

A key issue in the implementation of the Water Framework Directive is the classification of streams and rivers using biological quality parameters and type-specific reference conditions. Four groups of stream types were defined in NE Spain on the basis of 152 diatom samples by means of detrended correspondence analysis and classification techniques. Diatom analysis was restricted to epilithic taxa, and the sites included gradients ranging from near-natural streams to sites with poor ecological quality. The main gradient shows a clear separation of sites in relation to the degree of human influence: polluted streams (mainly located in the lowlands) differ from streams in mountainous areas and in the Pyrenees. A second gradient is related to physiographical features. Headwater streams can be distinguished by their catchment geology. The type-specific diatom taxa for the stream types studied were determined by using indicator species analysis (IndVal). The type-specific taxa from near-natural streams are coincident with the indicator taxa for high ecological status. Human impact reduced the typological heterogeneity of the diatom community composition. Overall, the diatom communities in NE Spain exhibit a regional distribution pattern that closely corresponds with that observed in river systems elsewhere. Physiographical differences are only evident in undisturbed sites, while nutrient enrichment and other human disturbances may mask the regional differences in the distribution of diatom communities

Lactic acid bacteria from fresh fruit and vegetables as biocontrol agents of phytopathogenic bacteria and fungi

This study evaluated the efficacy of lactic acid bacteria (LAB) isolated from fresh fruits and vegetables as biocontrol agents against the phytopathogenic and spoilage bacteria and fungi, Xanthomonas campestris, Erwinia carotovora, Penicillium expansum, Monilinia laxa, and Botrytis cinerea. The antagonistic activity of 496 LAB strains was tested in vitro and all tested microorganisms except P. expansum were inhibited by at least one isolate. The 496 isolates were also analyzed for the inhibition of P. expansum infection in wounds of Golden Delicious apples. Four strains (TC97, AC318, TM319, and FF441) reduced the fungal rot diameter of the apples by 20%; only Weissella cibaria strain TM128 decreased infection levels by 50%. Cell-free supernatants of selected antagonistic bacteria were studied to determine the nature of the antimicrobial compounds produced. Organic acids were the preferred mediators of inhibition but hydrogen peroxide was also detected when strains BC48, TM128, PM141 and FF441 were tested against E. carotovora. While previous reports of antifungal activity by LAB are scarce, our results support the potential of LAB as biocontrol agents against postharvest rot. [Int Microbiol 2008; 11(4):231-236]

Understanding the two-component sensing System of virulent bacteria

Report for the scientific sojourn carried out at the l’ Institute for Computational Molecular Science of the Temple University, United States, from 2010 to 2012. Two-component systems (TCS) are used by pathogenic bacteria to sense the environment within a host and activate mechanisms related to virulence and antimicrobial resistance. A prototypical example is the PhoQ/PhoP system, which is the major regulator of virulence in Salmonella. Hence, PhoQ is an attractive target for the design of new antibiotics against foodborne diseases. Inhibition of the PhoQ-mediated bacterial virulence does not result in growth inhibition, presenting less selective pressure for the generation of antibiotic resistance. Moreover, PhoQ is a histidine kinase (HK) and it is absent in animals. Nevertheless, the design of satisfactory HK inhibitors has been proven to be a challenge. To compete with the intracellular ATP concentrations, the affinity of a HK inhibidor must be in the micromolar-nanomolar range, whereas the current lead compounds have at best millimolar affinities. Moreover, the drug selectivity depends on the conformation of a highly variable loop, referred to as the “ATP-lid, which is difficult to study by X-Ray crystallography due to its flexibility. I have investigated the binding of different HK inhibitors to PhoQ. In particular, all-atom molecular dynamics simulations have been combined with enhanced sampling techniques in order to provide structural and dynamic information of the conformation of the ATP-lid. Transient interactions between these drugs and the ATP-lid have been identified and the free energy of the different binding modes has been estimated. The results obtained pinpoint the importance of protein flexibility in the HK-inhibitor binding, and constitute a first step in developing more potent and selective drugs. The computational resources of the hosting institution as well as the experience of the members of the group in drug binding and free energy methods have been crucial to carry out this work.

Energy as an indicator of modernisation in Latin America by 1925

In absence of comparable macroeconomic indicators for most of the Latin American economiesbeyond the 1930s, this paper presents an estimate of the apparent consumption per head of coal and petroleum for 25 countries of Latin American and the Caribbean for the year 1925, doubling the number of countries for which energy consumption estimates were previously available. Energy consumption is then used as an indicator of economic modernisation. As a result, the paper provides the basis for a quantitative comparative analysis of modernisation performance beyond the few countries for which historical national accounts are available in Latin America.

Is football an indicator of development at the international level?

[spa] El objetivo de este trabajo es examinar si el fútbol puede ser considerado como un indicador de desarrollo a nivel internacional. Se ha diseñado un modelo econométrico empírico con el fin de analizar el desarrollo en términos de niveles de PIB per cápita y del crecimiento del PIB. Se utiliza información transversal y temporal. Los resultados sugieren que la clasificación FIFA de las selecciones nacionales se puede utilizar para complementar nuestra comprensión del desarrollo multidimensional en aquellos países donde la disponibilidad de la información no es tan buena como los investigadores quisieran.

Is football an indicator of development at the international level?

[spa] El objetivo de este trabajo es examinar si el fútbol puede ser considerado como un indicador de desarrollo a nivel internacional. Se ha diseñado un modelo econométrico empírico con el fin de analizar el desarrollo en términos de niveles de PIB per cápita y del crecimiento del PIB. Se utiliza información transversal y temporal. Los resultados sugieren que la clasificación FIFA de las selecciones nacionales se puede utilizar para complementar nuestra comprensión del desarrollo multidimensional en aquellos países donde la disponibilidad de la información no es tan buena como los investigadores quisieran.

Monitoring mortality as an indicator of influenza in Catalonia, Spain.

This study aimed to investigate the behaviour of two indicators of influenza activity in the area of Barcelona and to evaluate the usefulness of modelling them to improve the detection of influenza epidemics. DESIGN: Descriptive time series study using the number of deaths due to all causes registered by funeral services and reported cases of influenza-like illness. The study concentrated on five influenza seasons, from week 45 of 1988 to week 44 of 1993. The weekly number of deaths and cases of influenza-like illness registered were processed using identification of a time series ARIMA model. SETTING: Six large towns in the Barcelona province which have more than 60,000 inhabitants and funeral services in all of them. MAIN RESULTS: For mortality, the proposed model was an autoregressive one of order 2 (ARIMA (2,0,0)) and for morbidity it was one of order 3 (ARIMA (3,0,0)). Finally, the two time series were analysed together to facilitate the detection of possible implications between them. The joint study of the two series shows that the mortality series can be modelled separately from the reported morbidity series, but the morbidity series is influenced as much by the number of previous cases of influenza reported as by the previous mortality registered. CONCLUSIONS: The model based on general mortality is useful for detecting epidemic activity of influenza. However, because there is not an absolute gold standard that allows definition of the beginning of the epidemic, the final decision of when it is considered an epidemic and control measures recommended should be taken after evaluating all the indicators included in the influenza surveillance programme.

Epidemiology of foodborne Norovirus outbreaks in Catalonia, Spain

Background: Noroviruses are one of the principal biological agents associated with the consumption of contaminated food. The objective of this study was to analyse the size and epidemiological characteristics of foodborne outbreaks of gastroenteritis in Catalonia, a region in the northeast of Spain.Methods: In all reported outbreaks of gastroenteritis associated with food consumption, faecal samples of persons affected were analysed for bacteria and viruses and selectively for parasites. Study variables included the setting, the number of people exposed, age, sex, clinical signs and hospital admissions. The study was carried out from October 2004 to October 2005.Results: Of the 181 outbreaks reported during the study period, 72 were caused by Salmonella and 30 by norovirus (NoV); the incidence rates were 14.5 and 9.9 per 100,000 person-years, respectively. In 50% of the NoV outbreaks and 27% of the bacterial outbreaks (p = 0.03) the number of persons affected was ¿10; 66.7% of NoV outbreaks occurred in restaurants; no differences in the attack rates were observed according to the etiology. Hospitalizations were more common (p = 0.03) in bacterial outbreaks (8.6%) than in NoV outbreaks (0.15%). Secondary cases accounted for 4% of cases in NoV outbreaks compared with 0.3% of cases in bacterial outbreaks (p < 0.001)Conclusion: Norovirus outbreaks were larger but less frequent than bacterial outbreaks, suggesting that underreporting is greater for NoV outbreaks. Food handlers should receive training on the transmission of infections in diverse situations. Very strict control measures on handwashing and environmental disinfection should be adopted in closed or partially-closed institutions.

Foodborne norovirus outbreak: the role of an asymptomatic food handler

Background: In July 2005 an outbreak of acute gastroenteritis occurred on a residential summer camp in the province of Barcelona (northeast of Spain). Forty-four people were affected among residents and employees. All of them had in common a meal at lunch time on 13 July (paella, round of beef and fruit). The aim of this study was to investigate a foodborne norovirus outbreak that occurred in the residential summer camp and in which the implication of a food handler was demonstrated by laboratory tests. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was designed. Personal or telephone interview was carried out to collect demographic, clinical and microbiological data of the exposed people, as well as food consumption in the suspected lunch. Food handlers of the mentioned summer camp were interviewed. Ten stool samples were requested from symptomatic exposed residents and the three food handlers that prepared the suspected food. Stools were tested for bacteries and noroviruses. Norovirus was detected using RT-PCR and sequence analysis. Attack rate, relative risks (RR) and its 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated to assess the association between food consumption and disease. Results: The global attack rate of the outbreak was 55%. The main symptoms were abdominal pain (90%), nausea (85%), vomiting (70%) and diarrhoea (42.5%). The disease remitted in 24-48 hours. Norovirus was detected in seven faecal samples, one of them was from an asymptomatic food handler who had not eaten the suspected food (round of beef), but cooked and served the lunch. Analysis of the two suspected foods isolated no pathogenic bacteria and detected no viruses. Molecular analysis showed that the viral strain was the same in ill patients and in the asymptomatic food handler (genotype GII.2 Melksham-like). Conclusions: In outbreaks of foodborne disease, the search for viruses in affected patients and all food handlers, even in those that are asymptomatic, is essential. Health education of food handlers with respect to hand washing should be promoted.

Implications of free Shiga toxin-converting bacteriophages occurring outside bacteria for the evolution and the detection of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli

In this review we highlight recent work that has increased our understanding of the distribution of Shiga toxin-converting phages that can be detected as free phage particles, independently of Shiga toxin-producing bacteria (STEC). Stx phages are a quite diverse group of temperate phages that can be found in their prophage state inserted within the STEC chromosome, but can also be found as phages released from the cell after activation of their lytic cycle. They have been detected in extraintestinal environments such as water polluted with feces from humans or animals, food samples or even in stool samples of healthy individuals. The high persistence of phages to several inactivation conditions makes them suitable candidates for the successful mobilization of stx genes, possibly resulting in the genes reaching a new bacterial genomic background by means of transduction, where ultimately they may be expressed, leading to Stx production. Besides the obvious fact that Stx phages circulating between bacteria can be, and probably are, involved in the emergence of new STEC strains, we review here other possible ways in which free Stx phages could interfere with the detection of STEC in a given sample by current laboratory methods and how to avoid such interference.