Determining underlying macroeconomic fundamentals during emerging market crises: Are conditions as bad as they seem?

Emerging market crises are characterized by large swings in both macroeconomic fundamentalsand asset prices. The economic significance of observed movements in macroeconomicvariables is obscured by the brief and extreme nature of crises. In this paper we propose to study the macroeconomic consequences of crises by studying the behavior of effective fundamentals, constructed by studying the relative movements of stock prices during crises. We find that these effective fundamentals provide a different picture than that implied by observed fundamentals. First, asset prices often reflect expectations of improvement in fundamentals after the initial devaluations; specifically, effective depreciations are positive but not as large as the observed ones. Second, crises vary in their effect on credit market conditions, with investors expecting tightening of credit in some cases (Mexico 1994, Philippines 1997), but loosening of credit in others (Sweden 1992, Korea 1997, Brazil 1999).

On the impact of fundamentals, liquidity and coordination on market stability

We develop a coordination game to model interactions betweenfundamentals and liquidity during unstable periods in financial markets.We then propose a flexible econometric framework for estimationof the model and analysis of its quantitative implications. The specificempirical application is carry trades in the yen dollar market, includingthe turmoil of 1998. We find a generally very deep market, withlow information disparities amongst agents. We observe occasionallyepisodes of market fragility, or turmoil with up by the escalator, downby the elevator patterns in prices. The key role of strategic behaviorin the econometric model is also confirmed.

Teaching fundamentals of computing theory: a constructivist approach

A Fundamentals of Computing Theory course involves different topics that are core to the Computer Science curricula and whose level of abstraction makes them difficult both to teach and to learn. Such difficulty stems from the complexity of the abstract notions involved and the required mathematical background. Surveys conducted among our students showed that many of them were applying some theoretical concepts mechanically rather than developing significant learning. This paper shows a number of didactic strategies that we introduced in the Fundamentals of Computing Theory curricula to cope with the above problem. The proposed strategies were based on a stronger use of technology and a constructivist approach. The final goal was to promote more significant learning of the course topics.

EMU sovereign debt market crisis: Fundamentals-based or pure contagion?

We empirically investigate whether the transmission of the recent crisis in euro area sovereign debt markets was due to fundamentals-based or pure contagion. To do so, we examine the behaviour of EMU sovereign bond yield spreads with respect to the German bund for a sample of both central and peripheral countries from January 1999 to December 2012. First we apply a dynamic approach to analyse the evolution of the degree of Grangercausality within the 90 pairs of sovereign bond yield spreads in our sample, in order to detect episodes of significantly increased causality between them (which we associate with contagion) and episodes of significantly reduced interconnection (which we associate with immunisation). We then use an ordered logit model to assess the determinants of the occurrence of the episodes detected. Our results suggest the importance of variables proxying market sentiment and of variables proxying macrofundamentals in determining contagion and immunisation outcomes. Therefore, our findings underline the coexistence of “pure” and “fundamentals-based contagion” during the recent European debt crisis.

EMU sovereign debt market crisis: Fundamentals-based or pure contagion?

We empirically investigate whether the transmission of the recent crisis in euro area sovereign debt markets was due to fundamentals-based or pure contagion. To do so, we examine the behaviour of EMU sovereign bond yield spreads with respect to the German bund for a sample of both central and peripheral countries from January 1999 to December 2012. First we apply a dynamic approach to analyse the evolution of the degree of Grangercausality within the 90 pairs of sovereign bond yield spreads in our sample, in order to detect episodes of significantly increased causality between them (which we associate with contagion) and episodes of significantly reduced interconnection (which we associate with immunisation). We then use an ordered logit model to assess the determinants of the occurrence of the episodes detected. Our results suggest the importance of variables proxying market sentiment and of variables proxying macrofundamentals in determining contagion and immunisation outcomes. Therefore, our findings underline the coexistence of “pure” and “fundamentals-based contagion” during the recent European debt crisis.

Dollarization and the relationship between EMBI and fundamentals Latin American countries

This paper presents empirical evidence on the interrelationship that exists between the evolution of the Emerging Markets Bonds Index (EMBI) and some macroeconomic variables in seven Latin American countries; two of them (Ecuador and Panama), full dollarized. We make use of a Cointegrated Vector framework to analyze the short run effects from 2001 to 2009. The results suggest that EMBI is more stable in dollarized countries and that its evolution influences economic activity in non-dollarized economies; suggesting that investors confidence might be higher in dollarized countries where real and financial economic evolution are less tied than in non-dollarized ones.

Dollarization and the relationship between EMBI and fundamentals Latin American countries

This paper presents empirical evidence on the interrelationship that exists between the evolution of the Emerging Markets Bonds Index (EMBI) and some macroeconomic variables in seven Latin American countries; two of them (Ecuador and Panama), full dollarized. We make use of a Cointegrated Vector framework to analyze the short run effects from 2001 to 2009. The results suggest that EMBI is more stable in dollarized countries and that its evolution influences economic activity in non-dollarized economies; suggesting that investors confidence might be higher in dollarized countries where real and financial economic evolution are less tied than in non-dollarized ones.

On the choice of an exchange rate regime: target zones revisited

From the classical gold standard up to the current ERM2 arrangement of the European Union, target zones have been a widely used exchange regime in contemporary history. This paper presents a benchmark model that rationalizes the choice of target zones over the rest of regimes: the fixed rate, the free float and the managed float. It is shown that the monetary authority may gain efficiency by reducing volatility of both the exchange rate and the interest rate at the same time. Furthermore, the model is consistent with some known stylized facts in the empirical literature that previous models were not able to produce, namely, the positive relation between the exchange rate and the interest rate differential, the degree of non-linearity of the function linking the exchage rate to fundamentals and the shape of the exchange rate stochastic distribution.

Aproximació al disseny de procediments i instruments per a la personalització de l'ensenyament a l'etapa primària des d'una perspectiva inclusiva

The main objective of this research is to found a new process about the personalization's curriculum for pupils with especial educational needs. In this research there are two objectives: the first objective is to describe a procedure for to do the individual planning for this pupils. This procedure is called "Procediment per cartes de personalització" (Pedragosa 2002). The other objective is centered to validate this procedure for teachers who are in active service in primary's etapa and to check if it's a good process for to do the individual planning in an inclusive approach. The procedure's cobcretion is about three basic referents: In the first, we consult with the current regulations, in the second we incorporate the inclusion's approach and the fundamentals of universal learning design, and finally we consult Ruiz's (1999) provides. We obtain the information for the research until, during and after of the formation's course (in 2003/2004). We introduced two questionnaire (until and after of formation sessions) and we register all of the sessions with a parlimentary report. About the main research results we can to affirm that the procedure is a good option for the professional's practice. It's an organized, ordered and coherent design with our curriculum. But, in spite of, we can to probate that there some interesting variables which are to influence to the procedure's efficiency.

Real equilibrium exchange rates. A panel data approach for advanced and emerging economies.

Based on an behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model, this paper examines the determinants of the real effective exchange rate and evaluates the degree of misalignment of a group of currencies since 1980. Within a panel cointegration setting, we estimate the relationship between exchange rate and a set of economic fundamentals, such as traded-nontraded productivity differentials and the stock of foreign assets. Having ascertained the variables are integrated and cointegrated, the long-run equilibrium value of the fundamentals are estimated and used to derive equilibrium exchange rates and misalignments. Although there is statistical homogeneity, some structural differences were found to exist between advanced and emerging economies.

When do central banks prefer to intervene secretly?

Central banks often intervene secretly in the foreign exchange market. This secrecy seems to be at odds with the signalling channel. In this article we will analyse when a central bank intervening in the foreign exchange rate market purely through the signalling channel would prefer to act secretly or publicly. By using a microstructure model, we will show that the consistency of the intervention with fundamentals, the volume of noise trading, the weight given to the effectiveness of intervention and the degree of superior information held by the central bank will influence the decision to intervene secretly or publicly. Keywords: foreign exchange intervention, market microstructure. JEL Classifi…cation: D82, E58, F31, G14.

Blanqueo de capitales en Argentina: historia, legislación, economía, política y ética

En l'actualitat, el desenvolupament permanent de les tecnologies informàtiques, Internet i el diner digital, fan cada cop més evolucionades i sofisticades les operacions financeres des de i cap a qualsevol lloc del món, potenciant la propagació del problema del blanqueig de capitals. Són desmesurats i enormes els recursos financers que es generen i provenen d'activitats il•lícites, la qual cosa genera un gran impacte en l'economia formal. El present treball, explora i analitza aspectes fundamentals del blanqueig de capitals, centrant-se en el cas d'Argentina i comparant-lo amb el d'Espanya. Es desenvolupa en l'evolució històrica i dels processos, com s'ha anat modificant la legislació existent en aquesta matèria i s’avalua el seu impacte en l'economia.

Individualització de la programació docent de Fonaments de Computadors

La metodologia docent impulsada per la creació d’un Espai Europeu d’Ensenyament Superior comú implica tenir en compte el treball de l’estudiant. En aquest sentit, resulta molt convenient facilitar a l’alumnat de primers cursos l’adaptació a una docència que s’organitza en crèdits ECTS i que se centra en el procés d’aprenentatge dels estudiants. Per aquest motiu, l’objectiu d’aquest projecte ha estat que assumissin un grau més elevat de responsabilitat en l’aprenentatge i que adquirissin una competència més gran en l’organització del temps d’acord amb els programes docents de les assignatures que cursessin. Per aconseguir-ho, s’ha creat un entorn de presentació de les guies docents basat en les agendes d’activitats d’aprenentatge. Aquestes agendes són, de fet, planificacions de les activitats presencials i no presencials que han de dur a terme els estudiants per assolir els objectius de cadascuna de les assignatures que fan. Perquè siguin efectives, han de ser el més individuals possibles i amb la informació suficient com perquè les activitats es puguin dur a terme. Així, els alumnes disposen d’una veritable agenda particular del què han de fer i quan per seguir una assignatura determinada. Com a resultat del projecte s’ha proposat una organització de la informació d’una assignatura que facilita tant la gestió de les guies docents com la creació d’agendes d’activitats d’aprenentatge, s’ha establert una metodologia de presentació dels programes docents amb suport de web perquè sigui de fàcil consulta i en els que els vincles de cada activitat s’activen segons el ritme del curs i, finalment, s’ha aplicat tot per al cas de l’assignatura de Fonaments de computadors, aconseguint que l’alumnat s’acostumi a seguir les agendes d’activitats i, consegüentment, a millorar el rendiment acadèmic de l’assignatura, que era el que, es pretenia originalment.

Growth in a Cross-Section of Cities: Location, Increasing Returns or Random Growth?

This article analyzes empirically the main existing theories on income and population city growth: increasing returns to scale, locational fundamentals and random growth. To do this we implement a threshold nonlinearity test that extends standard linear growth regression models to a dataset on urban, climatological and macroeconomic variables on 1,175 U.S. cities. Our analysis reveals the existence of increasing returns when per-capita income levels are beyond $19; 264. Despite this, income growth is mostly explained by social and locational fundamentals. Population growth also exhibits two distinct equilibria determined by a threshold value of 116,300 inhabitants beyond which city population grows at a higher rate. Income and population growth do not go hand in hand, implying an optimal level of population beyond which income growth stagnates or deteriorates

Derechos fundamentales y ciudadanía europea

Tracta dels drets fundamentals en el procés de configuració política d'Europa, de la Carta dels Drets Fonamentals de la UE. i de les garanties jurisdiccionals