Memory in contracts: the experience of the EBRD (1991-2003)

The objective of this paper is to identify the role of memory in repeated contracts with moral hazard in financial intermediation. We use the database we have built containing the contracts signed by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development EBRD between 1991 and 2003. Our framework is a standard setting of repeated moral hazard. After having controlled for the adverse selection component, we are able to prove that client reputation is the discrimination device according to which the bank fixes the amount of credit for the established clients. Our results unambiguously isolate the effect of memory in the bank's lending decisions.

Memory in contracts: the experience of the EBRD (1991-2003)

The objective of this paper is to identify the role of memory as a screening device in repeated contracts with asymmetric information in financial intermediation. We use an original dataset from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. We propose a simple empirical method to capture the role of memory using the client's reputation. Our results unambiguously isolate the dominant effect of memory on the bank's lending decisions over market factors in the case of established clients.

Design effect and interviewer effects: Evidence from the Spanish ESS3-2006 Data

In 2007 the first Quality Enhancement Meeting on sampling in the European SocialSurvey (ESS) took place. The discussion focused on design effects and inteviewereffects in face-to-face interviews. Following the recomendations of this meeting theSpanish ESS team studied the impact of interviewers as a new element in the designeffect in the response s variance using the information of the correspondent SampleDesign Data Files. Hierarchical multilevel and cross-classified multilevel analysis areconducted in order to estimate the amount of responses variation due to PSU and tointerviewers for different questions in the survey. Factor such as the age of theinterviewer, gender, workload, training and experience and respondent characteristicssuch as age, gender, renuance to participate and their possible interactions are alsoincluded in the analysis of some specific questions like trust in politicians and trustin legal system . Some recomendations related to future sampling designs and thecontents of the briefing sessions are derived from this initial research.

Single mothers and incentives to work: The French experience

This paper analyzes the effect of the 1998 reform of the French single parents allowanceon the labor supply of single mothers with very young children. The reform aimed atencouraging participation by allowing eligible single parents to accumulate benefits andlabor earnings for a limited period of time. Using data from the French EmploymentSurvey, the analysis shows that single mothers affected by the reform had experienced asignificant increase in their employment rate four years after the reform wasimplemented. During the same period, the employment rate of married mothers withyoung children did not experience a significant change, suggesting that at least part ofthe increase was a consequence of the reform. These results provide some evidence thatbenefit schedules that provide financial incentives to work can have significant effectsin getting single moms back to work, even in the presence of very young children.

Empirical study of correlated survival times for recurrent events with proportional hazards margins and the effect of correlation and censoring.

Background: In longitudinal studies where subjects experience recurrent incidents over a period of time, such as respiratory infections, fever or diarrhea, statistical methods are required to take into account the within-subject correlation. Methods: For repeated events data with censored failure, the independent increment (AG), marginal (WLW) and conditional (PWP) models are three multiple failure models that generalize Cox"s proportional hazard model. In this paper, we revise the efficiency, accuracy and robustness of all three models under simulated scenarios with varying degrees of within-subject correlation, censoring levels, maximum number of possible recurrences and sample size. We also study the methods performance on a real dataset from a cohort study with bronchial obstruction. Results: We find substantial differences between methods and there is not an optimal method. AG and PWP seem to be preferable to WLW for low correlation levels but the situation reverts for high correlations. Conclusions: All methods are stable in front of censoring, worsen with increasing recurrence levels and share a bias problem which, among other consequences, makes asymptotic normal confidence intervals not fully reliable, although they are well developed theoretically.

The effect of virtual reality on visual vertigo symptoms in patients with peripheral vestibular dysfunction: a pilot study.

Individuals with vestibular dysfunction may experience visual vertigo (VV), in which symptoms are provoked or exacerbated by excessive or disorientating visual stimuli (e.g. supermarkets). VV can significantly improve when customized vestibular rehabilitation exercises are combined with exposure to optokinetic stimuli. Virtual reality (VR), which immerses patients in realistic, visually challenging environments, has also been suggested as an adjunct to VR to improve VV symptoms. This pilot study compared the responses of sixteen patients with unilateral peripheral vestibular disorder randomly allocated to a VR regime incorporating exposure to a static (Group S) or dynamic (Group D) VR environment. Participants practiced vestibular exercises, twice weekly for four weeks, inside a static (Group S) or dynamic (Group D) virtual crowded square environment, presented in an immersive projection theatre (IPT), and received a vestibular exercise program to practice on days not attending clinic. A third Group D1 completed both the static and dynamic VR training. Treatment response was assessed with the Dynamic Gait Index and questionnaires concerning symptom triggers and psychological state. At final assessment, significant betweengroup differences were noted between Groups D (p = 0.001) and D1 (p = 0.03) compared to Group S for VV symptoms with the former two showing a significant 59.2% and 25.8% improvement respectively compared to 1.6% for the latter. Depression scores improved only for Group S (p = 0.01) while a trend towards significance was noted for Group D regarding anxiety scores (p = 0.07). Conclusion: Exposure to dynamic VR environments should be considered as a useful adjunct to vestibular rehabilitation programs for patients with peripheral vestibular disorders and VV symptoms.

The effect of virtual reality on visual vertigo symptoms in patients with peripheral vestibular dysfunction: a pilot study

Individuals with vestibular dysfunction may experience visual vertigo (VV), in which symptoms are provoked or exacerbated by excessive or disorientating visual stimuli (e.g. supermarkets). VV can significantly improve when customized vestibular rehabilitation exercises are combined with exposure to optokinetic stimuli. Virtual reality (VR), which immerses patients in realistic, visually challenging environments, has also been suggested as an adjunct to VR to improve VV symptoms. This pilot study compared the responses of sixteen patients with unilateral peripheral vestibular disorder randomly allocated to a VR regime incorporating exposure to a static (Group S) or dynamic (Group D) VR environment. Participants practiced vestibular exercises, twice weekly for four weeks, inside a static (Group S) or dynamic (Group D) virtual crowded square environment, presented in an immersive projection theatre (IPT), and received a vestibular exercise program to practice on days not attending clinic. A third Group D1 completed both the static and dynamic VR training. Treatment response was assessed with the Dynamic Gait Index and questionnaires concerning symptom triggers and psychological state. At final assessment, significant betweengroup differences were noted between Groups D (p = 0.001) and D1 (p = 0.03) compared to Group S for VV symptoms with the former two showing a significant 59.2% and 25.8% improvement respectively compared to 1.6% for the latter. Depression scores improved only for Group S (p = 0.01) while a trend towards significance was noted for Group D regarding anxiety scores (p = 0.07). Conclusion: Exposure to dynamic VR environments should be considered as a useful adjunct to vestibular rehabilitation programs for patients with peripheral vestibular disorders and VV symptoms.

Empirical study of correlated survival times for recurrent events with proportional hazards margins and the effect of correlation and censoring.

Background: In longitudinal studies where subjects experience recurrent incidents over a period of time, such as respiratory infections, fever or diarrhea, statistical methods are required to take into account the within-subject correlation. Methods: For repeated events data with censored failure, the independent increment (AG), marginal (WLW) and conditional (PWP) models are three multiple failure models that generalize Cox"s proportional hazard model. In this paper, we revise the efficiency, accuracy and robustness of all three models under simulated scenarios with varying degrees of within-subject correlation, censoring levels, maximum number of possible recurrences and sample size. We also study the methods performance on a real dataset from a cohort study with bronchial obstruction. Results: We find substantial differences between methods and there is not an optimal method. AG and PWP seem to be preferable to WLW for low correlation levels but the situation reverts for high correlations. Conclusions: All methods are stable in front of censoring, worsen with increasing recurrence levels and share a bias problem which, among other consequences, makes asymptotic normal confidence intervals not fully reliable, although they are well developed theoretically.