Multivariate contemporaneous-threshold autoregressive models

This paper proposes a contemporaneous-threshold multivariate smooth transition autoregressive (C-MSTAR) model in which the regime weights depend on the ex ante probabilities that latent regime-specific variables exceed certain threshold values. A key feature of the model is that the transition function depends on all the parameters of the model as well as on the data. Since the mixing weights are also a function of the regime-specific innovation covariance matrix, the model can account for contemporaneous regime-specific co-movements of the variables. The stability and distributional properties of the proposed model are discussed, as well as issues of estimation, testing and forecasting. The practical usefulness of the C-MSTAR model is illustrated by examining the relationship between US stock prices and interest rates.

IHO Metodología de Evaluación para Gestores de Contenidos

El present Treball Final de carrera té com a finalitat, el realitzar una metodologia d'avaluació IHO per a Gestors de Continguts. La idea principal és que en aplicar les nostres proves a les pàgines obtingudes amb el Gestor, aquestes superin els protocols mínims que establirem en tot allò relacionat a web corporatives i de continguts.

¿Son nuestros repositorios lo suficientemente sólidos como para asumir mandatos institucionales?

Aquesta comunicació se centra en l'estudi de la mida, la flexibilitat i l'estabilitat dels equips que gestionen els dipòsits espanyols en l'actualitat, per tal de determinar si són prou sòlids i estables com per suportar mandats institucionals. Per això s'ha realitzat una enquesta entre els dipòsits per tal de recopilar informació sobre l'estructura dels equips professionals que els gestionen. Atès que el nivell de desenvolupament entre els dipòsits espanyols és molt diferent, l'anàlisi se centrarà inicialment en aquells que es troben més consolidats, encara que la intenció de l'estudi és assolir un nivell de cobertura el més ampli possible que eventualment pugui excedir els límits nacionals.

Towards reusability and tailorability in collaborative learning systems using IMS-LD and grid services

CSCL applications are complex distributed systems that posespecial requirements towards achieving success in educationalsettings. Flexible and efficient design of collaborative activitiesby educators is a key precondition in order to provide CSCL tailorable systems, capable of adapting to the needs of eachparticular learning environment. Furthermore, some parts ofthose CSCL systems should be reused as often as possible inorder to reduce development costs. In addition, it may be necessary to employ special hardware devices, computational resources that reside in other organizations, or even exceed thepossibilities of one specific organization. Therefore, theproposal of this paper is twofold: collecting collaborativelearning designs (scripting) provided by educators, based onwell-known best practices (collaborative learning flow patterns) in a standard way (IMS-LD) in order to guide the tailoring of CSCL systems by selecting and integrating reusable CSCL software units; and, implementing those units in the form of grid services offered by third party providers. More specifically, this paper outlines a grid-based CSCL system having these features and illustrates its potential scope and applicability by means of a sample collaborative learning scenario.

The Three Horsemen of Growth: Plague, War and Urbanization in Early Modern Europe

How did Europe overtake China? We construct a simple Malthusian model with two sectors, and use it to explain how European per capita incomes and urbanization rates could surge ahead of Chinese ones. That living standards could exceed subsistence levels at all in a Malthusian setting should be surprising. Rising fertility and falling mortality ought to have reversed any gains. We show that productivity growth in Europe can only explain a small fraction of rising living standards. Population dynamics - changes of the birth and death schedules - were far more important drivers of the longrun Malthusian equilibrium. The Black Death raised wages substantially, creating important knock-on effects. Because of Engel's Law, demand for urban products increased, raising urban wages and attracting migrants from rural areas. European cities were unhealthy, especially compared to Far Eastern ones. Urbanization pushed up aggregate death rates. This effect was reinforced by more frequent wars (fed by city wealth) and disease spread by trade. Thus, higher wages themselves reduced population pressure. Without technological change, our model can account for the sharp rise in European urbanization as well as permanently higher per capita incomes. We complement our calibration exercise with a detailed analysis of intra-European growth in the early modern period. Using a panel of European states in the period 1300-1700, we show that war frequency can explain a good share of the divergent fortunes within Europe.

A consistency test of the time trade-off

This paper tests the internal consistency of time trade-off utilities.We find significant violations of consistency in the direction predictedby loss aversion. The violations disappear for higher gauge durations.We show that loss aversion can also explain that for short gaugedurations time trade-off utilities exceed standard gamble utilities. Ourresults suggest that time trade-off measurements that use relativelyshort gauge durations, like the widely used EuroQol algorithm(Dolan 1997), are affected by loss aversion and lead to utilities thatare too high.

What risks do people perceive in everyday life? A perspective gained from the experience sampling method (ESM)

The experiential sampling method (ESM) was used to collect data from 74 parttimestudents who described and assessed the risks involved in their current activitieswhen interrupted at random moments by text messages. The major categories ofperceived risk were short-term in nature and involved loss of time or materials relatedto work and physical damage (e.g., from transportation). Using techniques of multilevelanalysis, we demonstrate effects of gender, emotional state, and types of risk onassessments of risk. Specifically, females do not differ from males in assessing thepotential severity of risks but they see these as more likely to occur. Also, participantsassessed risks to be lower when in more positive self-reported emotional states. Wefurther demonstrate the potential of ESM by showing that risk assessments associatedwith current actions exceed those made retrospectively. We conclude by notingadvantages and disadvantages of ESM for collecting data about risk perceptions.

Efectos de las aceleraciones positivas en el organismo

El artículo describe los efectos de las aceleraciones positivas (+Gz) sobre el organismohumano. Se consideran los factores determinantes de las aceleraciones: intensidad, velocidad de comienzo, dirección y duración. La fisiopatología describe los factores hidrostáticos,hemodinámicos y de regulación refleja del aparato cardiocirculatorio. La exposición a +Gz produce reacciones adaptativas fisiológicas. Cuando éstas se superan, aparecen patologías de tipocardiocirculatorio, respiratorio, músculoesquelético, nervioso, sensorial,... Se describen los diferentes procedimientos y equipos específicos que protegen al piloto de los efectos de +Gz. Éstos incluyen las maniobras de contracción muscular, los trajes anti-G, los equipos de respiración a presión positiva, así como el entrenamiento en centrífuga.

Metal-Nitride-oxide-semiconductor light-emitting devices for general lighting.

The potential for application of silicon nitride-based light sources to general lighting is reported. The mechanism of current injection and transport in silicon nitride layers and silicon oxide tunnel layers is determined by electro-optical characterization of both bi- and tri-layers. It is shown that red luminescence is due to bipolar injection by direct tunneling, whereas Poole-Frenkel ionization is responsible for blue-green emission. The emission appears warm white to the eye, and the technology has potential for large-area lighting devices. A photometric study, including color rendering, color quality and luminous efficacy of radiation, measured under various AC excitation conditions, is given for a spectrum deemed promising for lighting. A correlated color temperature of 4800K was obtained using a 35% duty cycle of the AC excitation signal. Under these conditions, values for general color rendering index of 93 and luminous efficacy of radiation of 112 lm/W are demonstrated. This proof of concept demonstrates that mature silicon technology, which is extendable to lowcost, large-area lamps, can be used for general lighting purposes. Once the external quantum efficiency is improved to exceed 10%, this technique could be competitive with other energy-efficient solid-state lighting options. ©2011 Optical Society of America OCIS codes: (230.2090) Electro-optical devices; (150.2950) Illumination.

Financial reforms and capital flows: Insights from general equilibrium

As a result of debt enforcement problems, many high-productivity firms in emergingeconomies are unable to pledge enough future profits to their creditors and this constrains thefinancing they can raise. Many have argued that, by relaxing these credit constraints, reformsthat strengthen enforcement institutions would increase capital flows to emerging economies. Thisargument is based on a partial equilibrium intuition though, which does not take into account theorigin of any additional resources that flow to high-productivity firms after the reforms. We showthat some of these resources do not come from abroad, but instead from domestic low-productivityfirms that are driven out of business as a result of the reforms. Indeed, the resources released bythese low-productivity firms could exceed those absorbed by high-productivity ones so that capitalflows to emerging economies might actually decrease following successful reforms. This resultprovides a new perspective on some recent patterns of capital flows in industrial and emergingeconomies.

Antibiotic prophylaxis to prevent local infection in oral surgery: use or abuse?

Antibiotics have a well-documented efficacy in the treatment of established infections and as prophylactic agents in medically compromised patients. However, the systematic administration of antibiotics to prevent local infections in fit patients is much more controversial. The aim of this paper is to reflect on the justification for prophylactic usage of antibiotics to prevent wound infection and to reason out the most appropriate antibiotic guidelines taking into account available scientific data and studies by other authors. Numerous clinical trials question the efficacy of antibiotics in preventing wound infection. While some studies establish that antibiotics reduce the incidence of postoperative infections, others compare their efficacy to that of placebo. Thus, scientific literature suggests that every oral surgical intervention is not tributary of systematic antibiotic prophylaxis to prevent local infections. Intrinsic surgical risk factors and the patient"s individual circumstances must be taken into account. Even though the efficacy of other antibiotics cannot be ruled out due to our limited comprehension of the bacteriologic interrelations intervening in the pathogenesis of postextraction local infection, the amoxicillin-clavulanic acid combination theoretically covers the complete odontogenic bacterial spectrum in Spain. When the prophylactic use of antibiotics is indicated, this should be performed preoperatively, at high doses, and its extent should not exceed 24 hours. Special attention should be paid to antiinfectious local measures that can minimize infection risk during the wound"s healing period

The Significance of Business Exit for Future Entrepreneurial Activity

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyse the impact of business exits on future dimensions of entrepreneurial activity at the macroeconomic level. Design/methodology/approach: This research uses the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) data for 41 countries and the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) to carry out the analysis. The paper differentiates the effect of the two components of total entrepreneurial activity, and the two motivations for it – opportunity and necessity entrepreneurship. Findings: The results presented here show a positive and significant effect of the coefficient associated with exits in all models. This means that the levels of entrepreneurial activity exceed business exits. The robustness of the models are tested, including other variables such as the fear of failure, the Gross Domestic Product, role models, entrepreneurial skills and the unemployment variables. The main hypothesis which stated that at national level business exits imply greater rates of opportunity-driven entrepreneurship is corroborated. Originality/value: One would expect that unemployment rates would imply higher levels of necessity entrepreneurship. However, results show that unemployment rates do in fact favour opportunity entrepreneurship levels. This could be due to those government policies that are aimed at promoting entrepreneurship through the capitalization of unemployment to be totally invested in a new start-up. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first panel data study to link previous exit rates to future dimensions of entrepreneurial activity. Keywords: Entrepreneurship, business exits, social values, industrial organization Paper type: Research paper

Late and postmagmatic alterations in the tin-bearing batholith of Ricobayo (Iberian Massif, NW Spain)

The deuteric alteration processes undergone by the granites of the Ricobayo Batholith were: microclinization, chloritization, albitization, muscovitization, tourmalinization and garnetization. These processes must be interpreted in a dynamic context so that the different reactions that take place are the consequence of a successive interaction between rock and fluids. The physicochemical conditions deduced from these fluids are: temperature lower than 600 OC, pressure between 1.5 and 1 Kb, fugacity of oxygen between 10-25 and 10-35 bars, fugacity of sulphur lower than 10-l5 bars, the composition was kept stable and their log (a(K+)/a(Ht)) and log (a(Na+)/a(H+)) varied between 3.8 and 3.2 and between 3.5 and 4.6, respectively, and the pH of the fluids was higher than 5 during the microclinization, muscovitization and tourmalinization, and lower during chloritization and albitization. The deposition of cassiterite occurs with pH episodes that exceed 5.

Evidence for coseismic events of recurrent prehistoric deformation along the Alhama de Murcia fault, southeastern Spain

The Alhama de Murcia fault is a 85 km long oblique-slip fault, and is related to historical and instrumental seismic activity. A paleoseismic analysis of the Lorca-Totana sector of the fault containing MSK I=VIII historical earthquakes was made in order to identify and quantify its seismic potential. We present 1) the results of the neotectonic, structural and geomorphological analyses and, 2) the results of trenching. In the study area, the Alhama de Murcia fault forms a depressed corridor between two strands, the northwestern fault with morphological and structural features of a reverse component of slip, bounding the La Tercia range to the South, and the southeastern fault strand with evidence of sinistral oblique strike-slip movement. The offset along this latter fault trapped the sediments in transit from the La Tercia range towards the Guadalentín depression. The most recent of these sediments are arranged in three generations of alluvial fans and terraces. The first two trenches were dug in the most recent sediments across the southeastern fault strand. The results indicate a coseismic reverse fault deformation that involved the sedimentary sequence up to the intermediate alluvial fan and the Holocene terrace deposits. The sedimentary evolution observed in the trenches suggests an event of temporary damming of the Colmenar creek drainage to the South due to uplifting of the hanging wall during coseismic activation of the fault. Trench, structural and sedimentological features provide evidence of at least three coseismic events, which occurred after 125,000 yr. The minimum vertical slip rate along the fault is 0.06 mm/yr and the average recurrence period should not exceed 40,000 yr in accordance with the results obtained by fan topographic profiling. Further absolute dating is ongoing to constrain these estimates.

ESTRO-HERO survey: Guidelines for equipment and staffing of radiotherapy facilities in the European countries: Final results of the ESTRO-HERO survey

Background and purpose: In planning to meet evidence based needs for radiotherapy, guidelines for the provision of capital and human resources are central if access, quality and safety are not to be compromised. A component of the ESTRO-HERO (Health Economics in Radiation Oncology) project is to document the current availability and content of guidelines for radiotherapy in Europe. Materials and methods: An 84 part questionnaire was distributed to the European countries through their national scientific and professional radiotherapy societies with 30 items relating to the availability of guidelines for equipment and staffing and selected operational issues. Twenty-nine countries provided full or partial evaluable responses. Results: The availability of guidelines across Europe is far from uniform. The metrics used for capital and human resources are variable. There seem to have been no major changes in the availability or specifics of guidelines over the ten-year period since the QUARTS study with the exception of the recent expansion of RTT staffing models. Where comparison is possible it appears that staffing for radiation oncologists, medical physicists and particularly RTTs tend to exceed guidelines suggesting developments in clinical radiotherapy are moving faster than guideline updating. Conclusion: The efficient provision of safe, high quality radiotherapy services would benefit from the availability of well-structured guidelines for capital and human resources, based on agreed upon metrics, which could be linked to detailed estimates of need