The Role of model uncertainty and learning in the U.S. postwar policy response to oil prices

This paper studies optimal monetary policy in a framework that explicitly accounts for policymakers' uncertainty about the channels of transmission of oil prices into the economy. More specfically, I examine the robust response to the real price of oil that US monetary authorities would have been recommended to implement in the period 1970 2009; had they used the approach proposed by Cogley and Sargent (2005b) to incorporate model uncertainty and learning into policy decisions. In this context, I investigate the extent to which regulator' changing beliefs over different models of the economy play a role in the policy selection process. The main conclusion of this work is that, in the specific environment under analysis, one of the underlying models dominates the optimal interest rate response to oil prices. This result persists even when alternative assumptions on the model's priors change the pattern of the relative posterior probabilities, and can thus be attributed to the presence of model uncertainty itself.

Policy evaluation and uncertainty about the effects of oil prices on economic activity

This paper addresses the issue of policy evaluation in a context in which policymakers are uncertain about the effects of oil prices on economic performance. I consider models of the economy inspired by Solow (1980), Blanchard and Gali (2007), Kim and Loungani (1992) and Hamilton (1983, 2005), which incorporate different assumptions on the channels through which oil prices have an impact on economic activity. I first study the characteristics of the model space and I analyze the likelihood of the different specifications. I show that the existence of plausible alternative representations of the economy forces the policymaker to face the problem of model uncertainty. Then, I use the Bayesian approach proposed by Brock, Durlauf and West (2003, 2007) and the minimax approach developed by Hansen and Sargent (2008) to integrate this form of uncertainty into policy evaluation. I find that, in the environment under analysis, the standard Taylor rule is outperformed under a number of criteria by alternative simple rules in which policymakers introduce persistence in the policy instrument and respond to changes in the real price of oil.

Policy gradient based Reinforcement Learning for real autonomous underwater cable tracking

This paper proposes a field application of a high-level reinforcement learning (RL) control system for solving the action selection problem of an autonomous robot in cable tracking task. The learning system is characterized by using a direct policy search method for learning the internal state/action mapping. Policy only algorithms may suffer from long convergence times when dealing with real robotics. In order to speed up the process, the learning phase has been carried out in a simulated environment and, in a second step, the policy has been transferred and tested successfully on a real robot. Future steps plan to continue the learning process on-line while on the real robot while performing the mentioned task. We demonstrate its feasibility with real experiments on the underwater robot ICTINEU AUV

Perspectives on the green construction of the new European Energy Policy

The EU has been one of the main actors involved in the construction process of an international climate change regime, adopting it as an identity sign in the international arena. This activism has reverted in the European political agenda and in the one of its Members States. Therefore, climate change has become a driver for the EU growing participation in energy policy and for its governance evolution. In this context, much attention has been paid to the climate and energy policies integration agreed after the 2007 spring European Council. Apparently, this decision meant a decisive step towards the incorporation of the environmental variable in the energy policy-making. Moreover, the Action Plan [2007-2009] “Energy Policy for Europe” outlined priority actions in a variety of energy-related areas, implying the new European Energy Policy commencement. Against this background, there is still much left to understand about its formulation and its further development. Rooted on the Environmental Policy Integration approach, this paper traces the increasing proximity between environment and energy policies in order to understand the green contribution to the European Energy Policy construction.

Monetary policy with signal extraction from the bond market

Monetary policy is conducted in an environment of uncertainty. This paper sets upa model where the central bank uses real-time data from the bond market togetherwith standard macroeconomic indicators to estimate the current state of theeconomy more efficiently, while taking into account that its own actions influencewhat it observes. The timeliness of bond market data allows for quicker responsesof monetary policy to disturbances compared to the case when the central bankhas to rely solely on collected aggregate data. The information content of theterm structure creates a link between the bond market and the macroeconomythat is novel to the literature. To quantify the importance of the bond market asa source of information, the model is estimated on data for the United Statesand Australia using Bayesian methods. The empirical exercise suggests that thereis some information in the US term structure that helps the Federal Reserve toidentify shocks to the economy on a timely basis. Australian bond prices seemto be less informative than their US counterparts, perhaps because Australia is arelatively small and open economy.

Self reported physical activity, public health, and perceived environment: results from a comparative European study

The focus of physical activity promotion is moving from methods for increasing health enhancing physical activity on the individual level to higher level strategies including environmental and policy approaches. Scientific inquiry, traditionally related to individual-based strategies, requires adaptation and refinement when environmental and policy changes become more relevant. The objective of this study is to investigate the significance for behaviour and health of community-based environments that encourage physical activity. DESIGN AND SETTING The article presents data and results from a cross sectional comparative survey of the general population in six European countries (Belgium, Finland, Germany (East and West), Netherlands, Spain, Switzerland). Specifically, the relation between perceived community-based opportunities for physical activity, self reported physical activity, and self rated health status is investigated. PARTICIPANTS Representative samples of general populations (adults 18 years or older). Overall response rate: 53.5%. Sample sizes realised: Belgium: n=389; Finland: n=400; Germany (East): n = 913; Germany (West): n=489; Netherlands: n=366; Spain: n=380; Switzerland: n=406. MAIN RESULTS Analyses show that best opportunities are reported by people who are lightly to moderately physically active. People's self rated health is moderately, but significantly associated with both perceived opportunities, and physical activity itself. These predictors interact in that especially for women, the health impact of physical activity is more pronounced in case of good opportunities. CONCLUSIONS The paper shows the potential of opportunities within residential and community environments with regard to physical activity, both for behaviour and health. Opportunities may enable the population, especially women, to develop an active lifestyle, and thus improve their health. Future studies with objective indicators for physical activity related environments should test the findings that are based on perceptions.

Going with the consumer towards the social Web environment : a review of extant knowledge

The social Web environment cannot be explained without taking into account the use made by consumers of the web technologies in the field of e-commerce. Starting with a systematic background of the growing body of research on marketing and consumer behaviour on the Web; this article presents a critical review of the main contributions on this theme, integrating also the research field of consumer behaviour in the social Web environment. It concludes with some managerial guidelines for successful use of the social Web in the commercial activities and in the establishment of fruitful relationships between the consumers and the brand.