Calculation of the variance in surveys of the economic climate

Public opinion surveys have become progressively incorporated into systems of official statistics. Surveys of the economic climate are usually qualitative because they collect opinions of businesspeople and/or experts about the long-term indicators described by a number of variables. In such cases the responses are expressed in ordinal numbers, that is, the respondents verbally report, for example, whether during a given trimester the sales or the new orders have increased, decreased or remained the same as in the previous trimester. These data allow to calculate the percent of respondents in the total population (results are extrapolated), who select every one of the three options. Data are often presented in the form of an index calculated as the difference between the percent of those who claim that a given variable has improved in value and of those who claim that it has deteriorated. As in any survey conducted on a sample the question of the measurement of the sample error of the results has to be addressed, since the error influences both the reliability of the results and the calculation of the sample size adequate for a desired confidence interval. The results presented here are based on data from the Survey of the Business Climate (Encuesta de Clima Empresarial) developed through the collaboration of the Statistical Institute of Catalonia (Institut d’Estadística de Catalunya) with the Chambers of Commerce (Cámaras de Comercio) of Sabadell and Terrassa.

Risk Attitude And Wage Growth: Replication And Reconstruction

We replicate Shaw (1996) who found that individual wage growth is higher for individuals with greater preference for risk taking. Expanding her dataset with more American observations and data for Germany, Spain and Italy, we find mixed support for the earlier results. We present and estimate a new model and find that in particular the wage level is sensitive to attitudes towards risk taking. Comments given at the Labour Economics Conference in honour of Niels Westergaard (Nyborg, August 2008) and EALE 2008 (Amsterdam) and at seminars in Maastricht,Reus and Essen (RWI) are gratefully acknowledged. The authors also acknowledge financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (grant number SEJ2007-66318) and from the Barcelona Economics Program of CREA. JEL code: J24; J30. Key words: wage growth, risk, post-school investment.

Contextualizing the impact of work organization on employee satisfaction

The paper assesses the relationship between the use of alternative workplace practices (AWP) and job satisfaction. Using a unique employeremployee data set with rich information on both firm and employee characteristics we test whether there is a positive impact of AWPs on job satisfaction (motivation hypothesis) or it is negative (intensification hypothesis). We expand a growing empirical literature focusing on small and medium size firms from a southern European area. Our results show an overall positive effect, depending on the specific practice considered. We also obtain some sort of time-dependence with the effects turning from negative to positive once the practice has been implemented for some time. Keywords: Job satisfaction, work organization, unobserved heterogeneity.

Determinants of the educational use of digital learning materials: The mediating role of self-efficacy, perceived norm and attitude

Initiatives to stimulate the development and propagation of open educational resources (OER) need a sufficiently large community that can be mobilized to participate in this endeavour. Failure to achieve this could lead to underuse of OER. In the context of the Wikiwijs initiative a large scale survey was undertaken amongst primary and secondary school teachers to explore possible determinants of the educational use of digital learning materials (DLMs). Basing on the Integrative Model of Behaviour Prediction it was conjectured that self-efficacy, attitude and perceived norm would take a central role in explaining the intention to use DLMs. Several other predictors were added to the model as well whose effects were hypothesized to be mediated by the three central variables.All conjectured relationships were found using path analysis on survey data from 1484 teachers. Intention to DLMs was most strongly determined by self-efficacy, followed by attitude. ICT proficiency was in its turn the strongest predictor of self-efficacy. Perceived norm played only a limited role in the intention to use DLMs. Concluding, it seems paramount for the success of projects such as Wikiwijs to train teachers in the use of digital learning materials and ICT (e.g. the digital blackboard) and to impact on their attitude.

The effects of walking while working on productivity and health: a field experiment

Lack of physical activity can cause health problems and diminish organizational productivity. We conducted a 12-months long field experiment in a financial services company to study the effects of slow-moving treadmills outfitted for office work on employee productivity and health. 43 sedentary volunteers were assigned randomly to two groups to receive treadmill workstations 7 months apart. Employees could opt at will for standard chair-desk arrangement. Biometric measurements were taken quarterly and weekly online performance surveys were administered to study participants and to more than 200 non-participants and their supervisors.In this study we explore three questions concerning the effects of the introduction of treadmills in the workplace. (1) Does it improve overall physical activity? (2) Does it improve health measures? (3) Does it improve performance? The answers are as follows. (1) Yes (net effect of almost half an hour a day). (2) Yes (small gains, one minor decline). (3) No and yes (initial decline followed by increase to recover to initial level within one year) – based on weekly employee self reports.

Methods and representativeness of European surveys in children and adolescents: the KIDSCREEN study

Background: The objective of the present study was to compare three different sampling and questionnaire administration methods used in the international KIDSCREEN study in terms of participation, response rates, and external validity. Methods: Children and adolescents aged 8–18 years were surveyed in 13 European countries using either telephone sampling and mail administration, random sampling of school listings followed by classroom or mail administration, or multistage random sampling of communities and households with self-administration of the survey materials at home. Cooperation, completion, and response rates were compared across countries and survey methods. Data on non-respondents was collected in 8 countries. The population fraction (PF, respondents in each sex-age, or educational level category, divided by the population in the same category from Eurostat census data) and population fraction ratio (PFR, ratio of PF) and their corresponding 95% confidence intervals were used to analyze differences by country between the KIDSCREEN samples and a reference Eurostat population. Results: Response rates by country ranged from 18.9% to 91.2%. Response rates were highest in the school-based surveys (69.0%–91.2%). Sample proportions by age and gender were similar to the reference Eurostat population in most countries, although boys and adolescents were slightly underrepresented (PFR <1). Parents in lower educational categories were less likely to participate (PFR <1 in 5 countries). Parents in higher educational categories were overrepresented when the school and household sampling strategies were used (PFR = 1.78–2.97). Conclusion: School-based sampling achieved the highest overall response rates but also produced slightly more biased samples than the other methods. The results suggest that the samples were sufficiently representative to provide reference population values for the KIDSCREEN instrument.

Employee referrals and efficiency wages

Many workers believe that personal contacts are crucial for obtainingjobs in high-wage sectors. On the other hand, firms in high-wage sectorsreport using employee referrals because they help provide screening andmonitoring of new employees. This paper develops a matching model thatcan explain the link between inter-industry wage differentials and useof employee referrals. Referrals lower monitoring costs because high-effortreferees can exert peer pressure on co-workers, allowing firms to pay lowerefficiency wages. On the other hand, informal search provides fewer job andapplicant contacts than formal methods (e.g., newspaper ads). In equilibrium,the matching process generates segmentation in the labor market becauseof heterogeneity in the size of referral networks. Referrals match good high-paying jobs to well-connected workers, while formal methods matchless attractive jobs to less-connected workers. Industry-level data show apositive correlation between industry wage premia and use of employeereferrals. Moreover, evidence using the NLSY shows similar positive andsignificant OLS and fixed-effects estimates of the returns to employeereferrals, but insignificant effects once sector of employment is controlledfor. This evidence suggests referred workers earn higher wages not becauseof higher unobserved ability or better matches but rather because theyare hired in high-wage sectors.

On the valuation and incentive effects of executive cash bonus contracts

Executive compensation packages are often valued in an inconsistent manner: while employee stock options (ESOs) are typically valued ex-ante, cash bonuses are valued ex-post. This renders the existing valuation models of employee compensation packages theoretically unsatisfactory and, potentially, empirically distortive. In this paper, we propose an option-based framework for ex-ante valuation of cash bonus contracts. After obtaining closed-form expressions for ex-ante values of several frequently used types of bonus contracts, we utilize them to explore the e¤ects that the shape of a bonus contract has on the executive s attitude toward risk-taking. We, also, study pay-performance sensitivity of such contracts. We show that the terms of a bonus contract can dramatically impact both risk-taking behavior as well as pay-performance incentives. Several testable predictions are made, and venues of future research outlined.

Improving small area estimation by combining surveys: new perspectives in regional statistics

A national survey designed for estimating a specific population quantity is sometimes used for estimation of this quantity also for a small area, such as a province. Budget constraints do not allow a greater sample size for the small area, and so other means of improving estimation have to be devised. We investigate such methods and assess them by a Monte Carlo study. We explore how a complementary survey can be exploited in small area estimation. We use the context of the Spanish Labour Force Survey (EPA) and the Barometer in Spain for our study.

Employee referrals and the inter-industry wage structure

This paper investigates the role of employee referrals in the labor market.Using an original data set, I find that industries that pay wage premia andhave characteristics associated with high-wage sectors rely mainly on employeereferrals to fill jobs. Moreover, unemployment rates are higher in industries which use employee referrals more extensively. This paper develops an equilibrium matching model which can explain these empirical regularities. Inthis model, the matching process sorts heterogeneous firms and workers into two distinct groups: referrals match "good" jobs to "good" workers, while formalmethods (e.g., newspaper ads and employment agencies) match less-attractive jobs to disadvantaged workers. Thus, well-connected workers who learn quickly aboutjob opportunities use referrals to jump job queues, while those who are less well placed in the labor market search for jobs through formal methods. The split of firms and workers between referrals and formal search is, however, not necessarily efficient. Congestion externalities in referral search imply that unemployment would be closer to the optimal rate if firms and workers 'at themargin' searched formally.

When are layoffs acceptable? Evidence from a quasi-experiment

Many authors have discussed a decline in internal labor markets and an apparent shift to a new employment contract, characterized by less commitment between employer and employee and more portable skills. These discussions occur without much evidence on what employment contract employees currently feel is fair. We perfomed quasi-experimental surveys to study when employees in the U.S. andCanada feel that layoffs are fair.Layoffs were perceived as more fair if they were due to lower product demand than if the result of employee suggestions. This result appears to be solely due to norms of reciprocity (companiesshould not punish employees for their efforts), rather than norms of sharing rents, as new technology was also considered a justification for layoffs.Consistent with theories of distributive and procedural equity, layoffs were perceived as more fair if the CEO voluntarily shared the pain. CEO bonuses due to layoffs lowered their reported fairness only slightly.Respondents in Silicon Valley were not more accepting of layoffsthan were those in Canada on average, although the justificationsconsidered valid differed slightly.

The statistical accuracy of surveys on business and economic perspectives: a case study

In this paper, we develop a new decision making model and apply it in political Surveys of economic climate collect opinions of managers about the short-term future evolution of their business. Interviews are carried out on a regular basis and responses measure optimistic, neutral or pessimistic views about the economic perspectives. We propose a method to evaluate the sampling error of the average opinion derived from a particular type of survey data. Our variance estimate is useful to interpret historical trends and to decide whether changes in the index from one period to another are due to a structural change or whether ups and downs can be attributed to sampling randomness. An illustration using real data from a survey of business managers opinions is discussed.

Serological and virological surveys of the influenza A viruses in Antarctic and sub-Antarctic penguins

To evaluate the avian influenza virus (AIV) circulation in Antarctic and sub-Antarctic penguins we carried out a serosurvey on six species from Livingston, Marion and Gough islands. Seropositivity against AIV was performed on serum samples using a competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and haemagglutination and neuraminidase inhibition assays. Some oropharyngeal and cloacal swabs were also assayed to detect influenza virus genomes by real time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction. Overall, 12.1% (n = 140) penguins were seropositive to AIV. By species, we detected 5% (n = 19) and 11% (n = 18) seroprevalence in sub-Antarctic rockhopper penguins (Eudyptes spp.) from Gough and Marion islands, respectively, 42% (n = 33) seroprevalence in macaroni penguins (Eudyptes chysolophus Brandt), but no positives in the three other species, gentoo (Pygoscelis papua Forster; n = 25) and chinstrap penguins (P. antarctica Forster; n = 16), from Livingston Island and king penguins (Aptenodytes patagonicus Miller; n = 27) from Marion Island. While seropositivity reflected previous exposure to the AIV, the influenza genome was not detected. Our results indicate that AIV strains have circulated in penguin species in the sub-Antarctic region, but further studies are necessary to determine the precise role that such penguin species play in AIV epidemiology and if this circulation is species (or genus) specific.

Calculation of the variance in surveys of the economic climate

Public opinion surveys have become progressively incorporated into systems of official statistics. Surveys of the economic climate are usually qualitative because they collect opinions of businesspeople and/or experts about the long-term indicators described by a number of variables. In such cases the responses are expressed in ordinal numbers, that is, the respondents verbally report, for example, whether during a given trimester the sales or the new orders have increased, decreased or remained the same as in the previous trimester. These data allow to calculate the percent of respondents in the total population (results are extrapolated), who select every one of the three options. Data are often presented in the form of an index calculated as the difference between the percent of those who claim that a given variable has improved in value and of those who claim that it has deteriorated.

Labour segregation and immigrant and native-born wage distributions in Spain: an analysis using matched employer-employee data

This article carries out an empirical examination of the origin of the differences between immigrant and native-born wage structures in the Spanish labour market. Especial attention is given in the analysis to the role played by occupational and workplace segregation of immigrants. Legal immigrants from developing countries exhibit lower mean wages and a more compressed wage structure than native-born workers. By contrast, immigrants from developed countries display higher mean wages and a more dispersed wage structure. The main empirical finding is that the disparities in the wage distributions for the native-born and both groups of immigrants are largely explained by their different observed characteristics, with a particularly important influence in this context of workplace and, particularly, occupational segregation.