Limitations and biases of conventional analysis of climate change. Towards an analysis coherent with sustainable development

This paper shows the numerous problems of conventional economic analysis in the evaluation of climate change mitigation policies. The article points out the many limitations, omissions, and the arbitrariness that have characterized most evaluation models applied up until now. These shortcomings, in an almost overwhelming way, have biased the result towards the recommendation of a lower aggressiveness of emission mitigation policies. Consequently, this paper questions whether these results provide an appropriate answer to the problem. Finally, various points that an analysis coherent with sustainable development should take into account are presented.

Equity and CO2 emissions distribution in climate change integrated assessment

Emissions distribution is a focus variable for the design of future international agreements to tackle global warming. This paper specifically analyses the future path of emissions distribution and its determinants in different scenarios. Whereas our analysis is driven by tools which are typically applied in the income distribution literature and which have recently been applied to the analysis of CO2 emissions distribution, a new methodological approach is that our study is driven by simulations run with a popular regionalised optimal growth climate change model over the 1995-2105 period. We find that the architecture of environmental policies, the implementation of flexible mechanisms and income concentration are key determinants of emissions distribution over time. In particular we find a robust positive relationship between measures of inequalities.

Calculation of the variance in surveys of the economic climate

Public opinion surveys have become progressively incorporated into systems of official statistics. Surveys of the economic climate are usually qualitative because they collect opinions of businesspeople and/or experts about the long-term indicators described by a number of variables. In such cases the responses are expressed in ordinal numbers, that is, the respondents verbally report, for example, whether during a given trimester the sales or the new orders have increased, decreased or remained the same as in the previous trimester. These data allow to calculate the percent of respondents in the total population (results are extrapolated), who select every one of the three options. Data are often presented in the form of an index calculated as the difference between the percent of those who claim that a given variable has improved in value and of those who claim that it has deteriorated. As in any survey conducted on a sample the question of the measurement of the sample error of the results has to be addressed, since the error influences both the reliability of the results and the calculation of the sample size adequate for a desired confidence interval. The results presented here are based on data from the Survey of the Business Climate (Encuesta de Clima Empresarial) developed through the collaboration of the Statistical Institute of Catalonia (Institut d’Estadística de Catalunya) with the Chambers of Commerce (Cámaras de Comercio) of Sabadell and Terrassa.

Climate change in the Atlantic Ocean since the 1940's and the effects on the global climate

En aquest projecte s’ha estudiat la relació entre els canvis en les temperatures superficials de l’Oceà Atlàntic i els canvis en la circulació atmosfèrica en el segle XX. Concretament s’han analitzat dos períodes de estudi: el primer des del 1940 al 1960 i el segon des del 1980 fins al 2000. S’ha posat especial interès en les anomalies en les temperatures superficials del mar en la regió tropical de l’Oceà Atlàntic i la possible interconnexió amb els canvis climàtics observats i predits. Per a la realització de l’estudi s’han dut a terme una sèrie d’experiments utilitzant el model climàtic elaborat a la universitat d’UCLA (UCLA‐AGCM model). Els resultats obtinguts han estat analitzats en forma de mapes i figures per a cada variable d’estudi. També s’ha fet una comparació entre els resultats obtinguts i altres trobats en altres treballs publicats sobre el mateix tema de recerca. Els resultats obtinguts són molt amplis i poden tenir diverses interpretacions. Tot i així algunes de les conclusions a les quals s’ha arribat són: les diferències més significatives per a les variables estudiades i trobades a partir dels resultats obtinguts del model per als dos períodes d’estudi són en els mesos d’hivern i a la zona dels tròpics; concretament a parts del nord de sud Amèrica i a parts del nord d’Àfrica. S’han trobat també canvis significatius en els patrons de precipitació sobre aquestes mateixes zones. També s’ha observant un moviment cap al nord de la zona d’interconvergència tropical i pot ser degut a l’anòmal gradient trobat a la zona equatorial en les temperatures superficial de l’Oceà. Tot i així per a una definitiva discussió i conclusions sobre els resultats dels experiments, seria necessari un estudi més ampli i profund.

The Evolution of the Climate Change Regime: Beyond a North-South Divide?

This research primarily analyses relevant climate bargaining dynamics that have been informed by a North-South impasse. This working paper argues that the first stage of negotiations for a climate convention indeed witnessed a North-South divide which became institutionalized in the Framework Convention on Climate Change. However, in subsequent negotiation rounds the key loci of bargaining struggles was centered between developed countries, in which relevant North-South cooperation dynamics were also present. Finally, this paper assesses the unfinished post-Kyoto bargaining process in which two trends are already being observed: both the emergence of a new geopolitics between the United States and major developing countries, and a fragmentation process within the South, in which the Copenhagen Accord itself has begun to institutionalize such fragmentation.

El clima social i emocional en els mòduls de participació i convivència dels centres penitenciaris catalans

Aquest estudi es proposa valorar indicadors descriptius de la població penitenciària estudiada, analitzar les diferències entre programes d’organització (mòduls de participació i convivència versus ordinaris), i avaluar els indicadors de clima (social i emocional), per tal d’establir hipòtesi explicatives de la comparació dels resultats entre els mòduls de participació i convivència i altres mòduls de la mateixa àrea especialitzada (violència, drogodependències o preparació per a la vida en llibertat). Per això, s’han recollit dades de 14 indicadors descriptius de població i de 18 indicadors d’organització i participació de 1124 interns, dels 10 mòduls residencials estudiats de 3 de les presons catalanes. A més, s’han recollit 327 inventaris d’interns i 57 de professionals de clima emocional, i 331 escales d’interns i 92 de professionals de clima social per a Institucions Penitenciàries (Moos). Els resultats de les respostes als dos instruments de clima emocional i clima social emprats, ofereixen un índex de consistència interna o fiabilitat molt elevada, considerant que tenen una validesa predictiva molt potent. D’aquests resultats, s’analitzen les diferències en el clima emocional i social en relació al tipus d’organització de la unitat (participació i convivència o ordinària), al col·lectiu d’interns i al de professionals, i en relació a les variables descriptives de la població de cada unitat residencial d’estudi. Finalment s’estableixen unes hipòtesi explicatives d’aquests resultats, per tal de plantejar propostes de millora per al funcionament dels mòduls estudiats i per a l’avaluació futura, alhora que es valoren les possibilitats de generalització dels mòduls de participació i convivència als centres penitenciaris catalans en general i s’efectuen recomanacions per a l’adequada implantació dels mateixos (condicions mínimes d’execució): establiment d’un programa marc per part del centre directiu, que comprometi els centres al compliment d’uns estàndards de qualitat.

Embedding Emotional Context in Recommender Systems

Emotions are crucial for user's decision making in recommendation processes. We first introduce ambient recommender systems, which arise from the analysis of new trends on the exploitation of the emotional context in the next generation of recommender systems. We then explain some results of these new trends in real-world applications through the smart prediction assistant (SPA) platform in an intelligent learning guide with more than three million users. While most approaches to recommending have focused on algorithm performance. SPA makes recommendations to users on the basis of emotional information acquired in an incremental way. This article provides a cross-disciplinary perspective to achieve this goal in such recommender systems through a SPA platform. The methodology applied in SPA is the result of a bunch of technology transfer projects for large real-world rccommender systems

Reaction-diffusion wave fronts: Multigeneration biological species under climate change

A generalization of reaction-diffusion models to multigeneration biological species is presented. It is based on more complex random walks than those in previous approaches. The new model is developed analytically up to infinite order. Our predictions for the speed agree to experimental data for several butterfly species better than existing models. The predicted dependence for the speed on the number of generations per year allows us to explain the change in speed observed for a specific invasion

Extremal principle of entropy production in the climate system

Paltridge found reasonable values for the most significant climatic variables through maximizing the material transport part of entropy production by using a simple box model. Here, we analyse Paltridge's box model to obtain the energy and the entropy balance equations separately. Derived expressions for global entropy production, which is a function of the radiation field, and even its material transport component, are shown to be different from those used by Paltridge. Plausible climatic states are found at extrema of these parameters. Feasible results are also obtained by minimizing the radiation part of entropy production, in agreement with one of Planck's results, Finally, globally averaged values of the entropy flux of radiation and material entropy production are obtained for two dynamical extreme cases: an earth with uniform temperature, and an earth in radiative equilibrium at each latitudinal point

Emotional attention as a modulatory system of perception

Report for the scientific sojourn carried out at the University Medical Center, Swiss, from 2010 to 2012. Abundant evidence suggests that negative emotional stimuli are prioritized in the perceptual systems, eliciting enhanced neural responses in early sensory regions as compared with neutral information. This facilitated detection is generally paralleled by larger neural responses in early sensory areas, relative to the processing of neutral information. In this sense, the amygdala and other limbic regions, such as the orbitofrontal cortex, may play a critical role by sending modulatory projections onto the sensory cortices via direct or indirect feedback.The present project aimed at investigating two important issues regarding these mechanisms of emotional attention, by means of functional magnetic resonance imaging. In Study I, we examined the modulatory effects of visual emotion signals on the processing of task-irrelevant visual, auditory, and somatosensory input, that is, the intramodal and crossmodal effects of emotional attention. We observed that brain responses to auditory and tactile stimulation were enhanced during the processing of visual emotional stimuli, as compared to neutral, in bilateral primary auditory and somatosensory cortices, respectively. However, brain responses to visual task-irrelevant stimulation were diminished in left primary and secondary visual cortices in the same conditions. The results also suggested the existence of a multimodal network associated with emotional attention, presumably involving mediofrontal, temporal and orbitofrontal regions Finally, Study II examined the different brain responses along the low-level visual pathways and limbic regions, as a function of the number of retinal spikes during visual emotional processing. The experiment used stimuli resulting from an algorithm that simulates how the visual system perceives a visual input after a given number of retinal spikes. The results validated the visual model in human subjects and suggested differential emotional responses in the amygdala and visual regions as a function of spike-levels. A list of publications resulting from work in the host laboratory is included in the report.

Emotional attention as a modulatory system of perception

Report for the scientific sojourn carried out at the University Medical Center, Swiss, from 2010 to 2012. Abundant evidence suggests that negative emotional stimuli are prioritized in the perceptual systems, eliciting enhanced neural responses in early sensory regions as compared with neutral information. This facilitated detection is generally paralleled by larger neural responses in early sensory areas, relative to the processing of neutral information. In this sense, the amygdala and other limbic regions, such as the orbitofrontal cortex, may play a critical role by sending modulatory projections onto the sensory cortices via direct or indirect feedback.The present project aimed at investigating two important issues regarding these mechanisms of emotional attention, by means of functional magnetic resonance imaging. In Study I, we examined the modulatory effects of visual emotion signals on the processing of task-irrelevant visual, auditory, and somatosensory input, that is, the intramodal and crossmodal effects of emotional attention. We observed that brain responses to auditory and tactile stimulation were enhanced during the processing of visual emotional stimuli, as compared to neutral, in bilateral primary auditory and somatosensory cortices, respectively. However, brain responses to visual task-irrelevant stimulation were diminished in left primary and secondary visual cortices in the same conditions. The results also suggested the existence of a multimodal network associated with emotional attention, presumably involving mediofrontal, temporal and orbitofrontal regions Finally, Study II examined the different brain responses along the low-level visual pathways and limbic regions, as a function of the number of retinal spikes during visual emotional processing. The experiment used stimuli resulting from an algorithm that simulates how the visual system perceives a visual input after a given number of retinal spikes. The results validated the visual model in human subjects and suggested differential emotional responses in the amygdala and visual regions as a function of spike-levels. A list of publications resulting from work in the host laboratory is included in the report.

Processes and consequences in business ethical dilemmas: The oil industry and climate changes

This paper proposes a framework to examine business ethical dilemmas andbusiness attitudes towards such dilemmas. Business ethical dilemmas canbe understood as reflecting a contradiction between a socially detrimentalprocess and a self-interested profitable consequence. This representationallows us to distinguish two forms of behavior differing by whetherpriority is put on consequences or on processes. We argue that theseforms imply very different business attitudes towards society:controversial or competitive for the former and aligned or cooperativefor the latter. These attitudes are then analyzed at the discursive level in order to address the question of good faith in businessargumentation, i.e. to which extent are these attitudes consistent withactual business behaviors. We argue that consequential attitudes mostlyinvolve communication and lobbying actions aiming at eluding the dilemma.Therefore, the question of good faith for consequential attitudes liesin the consistency between beliefs and discourse. On the other hand,procedural attitudes acknowledge the dilemma and claim a change of theprocess of behavior. They thus raise the question of the consistencybetween discourses and actual behavior. We apply this processes/consequencesframework to the case of the oil industry s climate change ethical dilemmawhich comes forth as a dilemma between emitting greenhouse gases and making more profits . And we examine the different attitudes of two oilcorporations-BP Amoco and ExxonMobil-towards the dilemma.

Entropy Production In Thermodynamic Climate Models

We present a non-equilibrium theory in a system with heat and radiative fluxes. The obtained expression for the entropy production is applied to a simple one-dimensional climate model based on the first law of thermodynamics. In the model, the dissipative fluxes are assumed to be independent variables, following the criteria of the Extended Irreversible Thermodynamics (BIT) that enlarges, in reference to the classical expression, the applicability of a macroscopic thermodynamic theory for systems far from equilibrium. We analyze the second differential of the classical and the generalized entropy as a criteria of stability of the steady states. Finally, the extreme state is obtained using variational techniques and observing that the system is close to the maximum dissipation rate

The second law of thermodynamics and the global climate system : A review of the maximum entropy production principle

The long-term mean properties of the global climate system and those of turbulent fluid systems are reviewed from a thermodynamic viewpoint. Two general expressions are derived for a rate of entropy production due to thermal and viscous dissipation (turbulent dissipation) in a fluid system. It is shown with these expressions that maximum entropy production in the Earth s climate system suggested by Paltridge, as well as maximum transport properties of heat or momentum in a turbulent system suggested by Malkus and Busse, correspond to a state in which the rate of entropy production due to the turbulent dissipation is at a maximum. Entropy production due to absorption of solar radiation in the climate system is found to be irrelevant to the maximized properties associated with turbulence. The hypothesis of maximum entropy production also seems to be applicable to the planetary atmospheres of Mars and Titan and perhaps to mantle convection. Lorenz s conjecture on maximum generation of available potential energy is shown to be akin to this hypothesis with a few minor approximations. A possible mechanism by which turbulent fluid systems adjust themselves to the states of maximum entropy production is presented as a selffeedback mechanism for the generation of available potential energy. These results tend to support the hypothesis of maximum entropy production that underlies a wide variety of nonlinear fluid systems, including our planet as well as other planets and stars