A finite-population revenue management model and a risk-ratio procedure for the joint estimation of population size and parameters

Many dynamic revenue management models divide the sale period into a finite number of periods T and assume, invoking a fine-enough grid of time, that each period sees at most one booking request. These Poisson-type assumptions restrict the variability of the demand in the model, but researchers and practitioners were willing to overlook this for the benefit of tractability of the models. In this paper, we criticize this model from another angle. Estimating the discrete finite-period model poses problems of indeterminacy and non-robustness: Arbitrarily fixing T leads to arbitrary control values and on the other hand estimating T from data adds an additional layer of indeterminacy. To counter this, we first propose an alternate finite-population model that avoids this problem of fixing T and allows a wider range of demand distributions, while retaining the useful marginal-value properties of the finite-period model. The finite-population model still requires jointly estimating market size and the parameters of the customer purchase model without observing no-purchases. Estimation of market-size when no-purchases are unobservable has rarely been attempted in the marketing or revenue management literature. Indeed, we point out that it is akin to the classical statistical problem of estimating the parameters of a binomial distribution with unknown population size and success probability, and hence likely to be challenging. However, when the purchase probabilities are given by a functional form such as a multinomial-logit model, we propose an estimation heuristic that exploits the specification of the functional form, the variety of the offer sets in a typical RM setting, and qualitative knowledge of arrival rates. Finally we perform simulations to show that the estimator is very promising in obtaining unbiased estimates of population size and the model parameters.

Population Size and Civil Conflict Risk: Is There A Causal Link?

[spa] La estimación del impacto del tamaño de la populación sobre la probabilidad de conflicto civil se complica por el sesgo de endogeneidad y las variables omitidas. Este artículo trata el problema de causalidad utilizando métodos de variables instrumentales en un panel de 37 países del África Sub-sahariana en el período 1981-2004. Encontramos que un aumento de la población en un 1% aumenta la probabilidad de conflicto civil por un 5.2%.

A Computer program for estimating population size by the removal method

A BASIC computer program (REMOVAL) was developed to compute in a VAXNMS environment all the calculations of the removal method for population size estimation (catch-effort method for closed populations with constant sampling effort). The program follows the maximum likelihood methodology,checks the failure conditions, applies the appropriate formula, and displays the estimates of population size and catchability, with their standard deviations and coefficients of variation, and two goodness-of-fit statistics with their significance levels. Data of removal experiments for the cyprinodontid fish Aphanius iberus in the Alt Emporda wetlands are used to exemplify the use of the program

Microsatellite markers reveal shallow genetic differentiation between cohorts of the common sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus (Lamarck) in northwest Mediterranean

Temporal variability was studied in the common sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus through the analysis of the genetic composition of three yearly cohorts sampled over two consecutive springs in a locality in northwestern Mediterranean. Individuals were aged using growth ring patterns observed in tests and samples were genotyped for five microsatellite loci. No reduction of genetic diversity was observed relative to a sample of the adult population from the same location or within cohorts across years. FST and amova results indicated that the differentiation between cohorts is rather shallow and not significant, as most variability is found within cohorts and within individuals. This mild differentiation translated into estimates of effective population size of 90100 individuals. When the observed excess of homozygotes was taken into account, the estimate of the average number of breeders increased to c. 300 individuals. Given our restricted sampling area and the known small-scale heterogeneity in recruitment in this species, our results suggest that at stretches of a few kilometres of shoreline, large numbers of progenitors are likely to contribute to the larval pool at each reproduction event. Intercohort variation in our samples is six times smaller than spatial variation between adults of four localities in the western Mediterranean. Our results indicate that, notwithstanding the stochastic events that take place during the long planktonic phase and during the settlement and recruitment processes, reproductive success in this species is high enough to produce cohorts genetically diverse and with little differentiation between them. Further research is needed before the link between genetic structure and underlying physical and biological processes can be well established.

Data size sufficiency analyses of haplotype inference algortihms

We present experimental and theoretical analyses of data requirements for haplotype inference algorithms. Our experiments include a broad range of problem sizes under two standard models of tree distribution and were designed to yield statistically robust results despite the size of the sample space. Our results validate Gusfield's conjecture that a population size of n log n is required to give (with high probability) sufficient information to deduce the n haplotypes and their complete evolutionary history. The experimental results inspired our experimental finding with theoretical bounds on the population size. We also analyze the population size required to deduce some fixed fraction of the evolutionary history of a set of n haplotypes and establish linear bounds on the required sample size. These linear bounds are also shown theoretically.

Population genetic structure and demography analysis in palinurus elephas populations from atlantic and mediterranean waters

Report for the scientific sojourn at the University of Reading, United Kingdom, from January until May 2008. The main objectives have been firstly to infer population structure and parameters in demographic models using a total of 13 microsatellite loci for genotyping approximately 30 individuals per population in 10 Palinurus elephas populations both from Mediterranean and Atlantic waters. Secondly, developing statistical methods to identify discrepant loci, possibly under selection and implement those methods using the R software environment. It is important to consider that the calculation of the probability distribution of the demographic and mutational parameters for a full genetic data set is numerically difficult for complex demographic history (Stephens 2003). The Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC), based on summary statistics to infer posterior distributions of variable parameters without explicit likelihood calculations, can surmount this difficulty. This would allow to gather information on different demographic prior values (i.e. effective population sizes, migration rate, microsatellite mutation rate, mutational processes) and assay the sensitivity of inferences to demographic priors by assuming different priors.

REGSTATTOOLS: freeware statistical tools for the analysis of disease population databases used in health and social studies

Background: The repertoire of statistical methods dealing with the descriptive analysis of the burden of a disease has been expanded and implemented in statistical software packages during the last years. The purpose of this paper is to present a web-based tool, REGSTATTOOLS http://regstattools.net intended to provide analysis for the burden of cancer, or other group of disease registry data. Three software applications are included in REGSTATTOOLS: SART (analysis of disease"s rates and its time trends), RiskDiff (analysis of percent changes in the rates due to demographic factors and risk of developing or dying from a disease) and WAERS (relative survival analysis). Results: We show a real-data application through the assessment of the burden of tobacco-related cancer incidence in two Spanish regions in the period 1995-2004. Making use of SART we show that lung cancer is the most common cancer among those cancers, with rising trends in incidence among women. We compared 2000-2004 data with that of 1995-1999 to assess percent changes in the number of cases as well as relative survival using RiskDiff and WAERS, respectively. We show that the net change increase in lung cancer cases among women was mainly attributable to an increased risk of developing lung cancer, whereas in men it is attributable to the increase in population size. Among men, lung cancer relative survival was higher in 2000-2004 than in 1995-1999, whereas it was similar among women when these time periods were compared. Conclusions: Unlike other similar applications, REGSTATTOOLS does not require local software installation and it is simple to use, fast and easy to interpret. It is a set of web-based statistical tools intended for automated calculation of population indicators that any professional in health or social sciences may require.

Population connectivity buffers genetic diversity loss in a seabird

Background Ancient DNA has revolutionized conservation genetic studies as it allows monitoring of the genetic variability of species through time and predicting the impact of ecosystems" threats on future population dynamics and viability. Meanwhile, the consequences of anthropogenic activities and climate change to island faunas, particularly seabirds, remain largely unknown. In this study, we examined temporal changes in the genetic diversity of a threatened seabird, the Cory"s shearwater (Calonectris borealis). Findings We analysed the mitochondrial DNA control region of ancient bone samples from the late-Holocene retrieved from the Canary archipelago (NE Atlantic) together with modern DNA sequences representative of the entire breeding range of the species. Our results show high levels of ancient genetic diversity in the Canaries comparable to that of the extant population. The temporal haplotype network further revealed rare but recurrent long-distance dispersal between ocean basins. The Bayesian demographic analyses reveal both regional and local population size expansion events, and this is in spite of the demographic decline experienced by the species over the last millennia. Conclusions Our findings suggest that population connectivity of the species has acted as a buffer of genetic losses and illustrate the use of ancient DNA to uncover such cryptic genetic events.

On the weights of nations: assigning voting weights in a heterogenous union

Consider a voting procedure where countries, states, or districts comprising a union each elect representatives who then participate in later votes at the union level on their behalf. The countries, provinces, and states may vary in their populations and composition. If we wish to maximize the total expected utility of all agents in the union, how to weight the votes of the representatives of the different countries, states or districts at the union level? We provide a simple characterization of the efficient voting rule in terms of the weights assigned to different districts and the voting threshold (how large a qualified majority is needed to induce change versus the status quo). Next, in the context of a model of the correlation structure of agents preferences, we analyze how voting weights relate to the population size of a country. We then analyze the voting weights in Council of the European Union under the Nice Treaty and the recently proposed constitution, and contrast them under different versions of our model.

A Model of ethnic conflict

We present a model of conflict, in which discriminatory government policy or social intolerance is responsive to various forms of ethnic activism, including violence. It is this perceived responsiveness -captured by the probability that the government gives in and accepts a proponed change in ethnic policy- that induces individuals to mobilize in support for their cause. Yet, mobilization is costly and demonstrators have to be compensated accordingly. Individuals have to weigh their ethnic radicalism with their material well-being to determine the size of their money contribution to the cause. Our main results are: (i) a one-sided increase in radicalism or in population size increases conflict; (ii) a one-sided increase in income has ambiguous effects depending on the elasticity of contributions to income; (iii) an increase in within-group inequality increases conflict; and (iv) an increase in the correlation between ethnic radicalism and inequality also increases conflict.

Labor supply response to international migration and remittances in the Republic of Haiti

The Republic of Haiti is the prime international remittances recipient country in the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) region relative to its gross domestic product (GDP). The downside of this observation may be that this country is also the first exporter of skilled workers in the world by population size. The present research uses a zero-altered negative binomial (with logit inflation) to model households' international migration decision process, and endogenous regressors' Amemiya Generalized Least Squares method (instrumental variable Tobit, IV-Tobit) to account for selectivity and endogeneity issues in assessing the impact of remittances on labor market outcomes. Results are in line with what has been found so far in this literature in terms of a decline of labor supply in the presence of remittances. However, the impact of international remittances does not seem to be important in determining recipient households' labor participation behavior, particularly for women.

Caracterització i conservació d’una població de tortuga de rierol (Mauremys Leprosa) a l’ein del riu Llobregat al terme d’Abrera

S'ha estudiat una població de tortuga de rierol (Mauremys leprosa) present al curs principal del riu Llobregat, al seu pas pel municipi d'Abrera (Baix Llobregat). El tram té una longitud de 4.140 metres de recorregut sinuós, inclòs a l'EIN Riu Llobregat, amb predomini d'albaredes i pollancredes. S'ha caracteritzat el tram de riu segons el tipus de secció que presenta al llarg de l'àrea d'estudi. L'activitat de les tortugues comprèn de mitjans de febrer a mitjans de novembre, sense que s'hagi detectat una disminució a l'estiu. L'ús de l'espai no és uniforme amb una marcada preferència per trams del riu amb una certa fondària i velocitat de l'aigua alentida. S’han capturat 68 tortugues de rierol mitjançant nanses de pesca adaptades i, un cop marcades, s'han alliberat al mateix lloc. Per a cada animal es van obtenir les dades biomètriques i es va determinar el sexe. Mitjançant el mètode de captura-recaptura s'ha estimat la mida de la població en 100 ± 11 individus. La ràtio de sexes de la població és de 2:1 a favor dels mascles. La distribució de classes d'edats permet comprovar que la població està ben estructurada. No s'ha comprovat la reproducció, tot i que el nombre de femelles reproductores és elevat. La falta de captures de nounats i d’individus d'un hivern d’edat, i el baix nombre de juvenils capturats fa pensar que la taxa de reclutament és baixa. La mobilitat dels animals aigües amunt està limitada per la presència de dos assuts a l'àrea d'estudi, la qual cosa compromet la connectivitat de la població dins i fora de l'àrea d'estudi. També s'ha detectat la presència de tortuga de Florida (Trachemys scripta spp.) sense que s'hagi observat cap interacció entre ambdues espècies. Es proposen un seguit de mesures per afavorir la conservació de la tortuga de rierol.

Construyendo las bases para una comparación fiable: la Encuesta Social Europea

Surveys are a valuable instrument to find out about the social and politicalreality of our context. However, the work of researchers is often limitedby a number of handicaps that are mainly two. On one hand, the samples areusually low technical quality ones and the fieldwork is not carried out inthe finest conditions. On the other hand, many surveys are not especiallydesigned to allow their comparison, a precisely appreciated operation inpolitical research. The article presents the European Social Survey andjustifies its methodological bases. The survey, promoted by the EuropeanScience Foundation and the European Commission, is born from the collectiveeffort of the scientific community with the explicit aim to establishcertain quality standards in the sample design and in the carrying out ofthe fieldwork so as to guarantee the quality of the data and allow eachcomparison between countries.

Evolutionary dynamics of molecular markers during local adaptation: a case study in Drosophila subobscura

Background: Natural selection and genetic drift are major forces responsible for temporal genetic changes in populations. Furthermore, these evolutionary forces may interact with each other. Here we study the impact of an ongoing adaptive process at the molecular genetic level by analyzing the temporal genetic changes throughout 40 generations of adaptation to a common laboratory environment. Specifically, genetic variability, population differentiation and demographic structure were compared in two replicated groups of Drosophila subobscura populations recently sampled from different wild sources. Results: We found evidence for a decline in genetic variability through time, along with an increase in genetic differentiation between all populations studied. The observed decline in genetic variability was higher during the first 14 generations of laboratory adaptation. The two groups of replicated populations showed overall similarity in variability patterns. Our results also revealed changing demographic structure of the populations during laboratory evolution, with lower effective population sizes in the early phase of the adaptive process. One of the ten microsatellites analyzed showed a clearly distinct temporal pattern of allele frequency change, suggesting the occurrence of positive selection affecting the region around that particular locus. Conclusion: Genetic drift was responsible for most of the divergence and loss of variability between and within replicates, with most changes occurring during the first generations of laboratory adaptation. We also found evidence suggesting a selective sweep, despite the low number of molecular markers analyzed. Overall, there was a similarity of evolutionary dynamics at the molecular level in our laboratory populations, despite distinct genetic backgrounds and some differences in phenotypic evolution.

Deu anys de seguiment demogràfic i genètic d"Stachys maritima a Catalunya (2001-2010). Implicacions per a un pla de recuperació.

Ten years of demographic and genetic monitoring of Stachys maritima in Catalonia (2001-2010). Implications for a recovery plan.- Stachys maritima is a species typical of the coastal dunes, with a wide distribution within the Mediterranean Basin. In spite of this, the species shows a clear regression. In Catalonia, it has been observed an important reduction of its populations since early 20th century, where it has disappeared from several localities in which it was relatively common (Tarragonès, Barcelonès). Herein we present the results of the demographic monitoring of the species during the last 10 years (2001-2010) in the known localities in Catalonia. Besides corroborating the disappearance (northern Sant Martí d'Empúries), the re-discovering (Llobregat Delta beach) and the detection of new populations (inner dunes of the Montgrí), a large year-to-year fluctuation of the monitored populations is stated; the possible reasons are discussed. In addition, the present work also includes the results of the allozyme diversity analysis of the new detected populations as well as the rediscoveries of the period 2004-2008, which were not included in a former study of genetic diversity carried out in 2002-2003. It is necessary to emphasize that the contribution of the new populations to the genetic diversity of Stachys maritima is very small, which can be attributed to their limited population size and /or to founder effects. Despite that the species is included in the Annex 2 ('En Perill d'Extinció') within the Catàleg de Flora Amenaçada de Catalunya (Catalogue of Endangered Flora of Catalonia), and some 'soft' conservation measures have been applied at local level (signposting of the beach accesses, environmental education, etc.) coupled with other more significant measures (e.g. translocation of individuals discovered in an artificial sandbank), it would be necessary the coordinated action and the scientific support of any initiative of conservation that could be carried out. The general frame to initiate actions of conservation should be the recovery plan of Stachys maritima, whose draft and application is mandatory in accordance to the Catàleg.