Progress Towards to Equity Market Integration in Eastern Europe

The advent of the European Union has decreased the diversification benefits available from country based equity market indices in the region. This paper measures the increase in stock integration between the three largest new EU members (Hungary, the Czech Republic and Poland who joined in May 2004) and the Euro-zone. A potentially gradual transition in correlations is accommodated in a single VAR model by embedding smooth transition conditional correlation models with fat tails, spillovers, volatility clustering, and asymmetric volatility effects. At the country market index level all three Eastern European markets show a considerable increase in correlations in 2006. At the industry level the dates and transition periods for the correlations differ, and the correlations are lower although also increasing. The results show that sectoral indices in Eastern European markets may provide larger diversification opportunities than the aggregate market. JEL classifications: C32; C51; F36; G15 Keywords: Multivariate GARCH; Smooth Transition Conditional Correlation; Stock Return Comovement; Sectoral correlations; New EU Members

Migration and trade: Theory with an Application to the Eastern- Western European Integration

The remarkable increase in trade flows and in migratory flows of highly educated people are two important features of globalization of the last decades. This paper extends a two-country model of inter- and intraindustry trade to a rich environment featuring technological differences, skill differences and the possibility of international labor mobility. The model is used to explain the patterns of trade and migration as countries remove barriers to trade and to labor mobility. We parameterize the model to match the features of the Western and Eastern European members of the EU and analyze first the effects of the trade liberalization which occured between 1989 and 2004, and then the gains and losses from migration which are expected to occur if legal barriers to labor mobility are substantially reduced. The lower barriers to migration would result in significant migration of skilled workers from Eastern European countries. Interestingly, this would not only benefit the migrants and most Western European workers but, via trade, it would also benefit the workers remaining in Eastern Europe. Key Words: Skilled Migration, Gains from Variety, Real Wages, Eastern-Western Europe. JEL Codes: F12, F22, J61.

Impacte de la variabilitat climàtica ràpida de l'últim període glacial sobre la vegetació del sud-est de Nord Amèrica

Projecte de recerca elaborat a partir d’una estada a UMR-CNRS - Géologie et Océanographie, França, entre 2007 i 2009. Els canvis climàtics ràpids de l’últim període glacial (cicles Dansgaard/Oeschger i Heinrich Stadials-HS), han estat documentats en testimonis marins, de gel i dipòsits continentals, generalment de l’hemisferi nord. Mentre que la majoria dels estudis paleoclimàtics i paleoceanogràfics de l’Atlàntic Nord sobre l’últim període glacial s’han centrat en la part nord i est, les latituds mitjanes de la part occidental han estat menys estudiades. Particularment, els canvis de la vegetació de l’est de Nord Amèrica durant l’últim glacial es coneixen molt poc degut a la manca de seqüències pol.líniques llargues en aquesta regió. Només dues seqüències de pol.len del llac Tulane (Florida) mostren canvis de la vegetació significatius i interessants durant l’últim glacial, que suggereixen HS càlids i humits, que contrasta amb el que s’observa a l’altre costat de l’Atlàntic Nord. El treball realitzat al UMR-CNRS 5805 EPOC, Université Bordeaux 1, EPHE, des del 23 d’abril 2007 al 22 d’abril 2009, gràcies a la beca Beatriu de Pinós, implica una reconstrucció a alta resolució dels canvis de la vegetació a partir de l’anàlisi d’un testimoni marí, localitzat a l’oest de l’Atlàntic Nord subtropical (MD99-2203, 34º58’N, 75º12’W), durant l’Estadi Isotòpic Marí 3 (MIS 3). Les dades pal.linològiques del testimoni mostren una alternança entre Picea i Quercus. En general, les associacions pol.líniques indiquen que les variacions de la vegetació segueixen un patró bosc boreal/temperat durant l’últim glacial. El model d’edat preliminar basat en edats radiomètriques suggereix un augment del bosc temperat acompanyat d’una reducció del boreal entre el H4 i el H3. La comparació amb registres pol.línics marins d’alta resolució de la regió est subtropical, a latituds similars, mostren, per primer cop, que els canvis en les formacions forestals associats als canvis climàtics ràpids de l’últim glacial van ser menys intensos al sud-est de Nord Amèrica que a la Península Ibèrica.

Is ENP good news for the transfer of environmental norms? Incentives and socialization for Eastern neighbours

The launching of the European Neighbourhood Policy has created some expectations. Cooperation between the EU and its partners is expected to get deeper, to the point that neighbouring countries have been promised to share “everything but institutions” with the EU. Moreover, cooperation is also expected to be broader, as it has been presented as including more and more issue areas. In other words, the ENP has the vocation of being a universal instrument to promote the transfer of EU norms. This paper focuses on one single issue area, the environment, and one group of ENP partners, the Western Newly Independent States and the South Caucasus, to revise to what extent neighbourhood policy can provide the mechanisms to encourage rule transfer. Are incentives and disincentives powerful enough? Can the ENP promote the socialization of neighbours into EU environmental norms?

The Franco-German motor before the eastern enlargement: the causes of its decline

The Franco-German axis has been a transcendent force behind the European integration ever since the early years of the EEC. Nevertheless, since the fall of the Berlin Wall in November 1989, the perception of a progressive distancing between France and Germany as far as the EU politics is concerned, has increased. There has not been a definitive break in Franco-German relations. However, the influence of the Franco-German axis in the EU has been reduced in the 90s. Finally, in the Nice IGC (December 2000), the misunderstandings of these two “big” states about their weight in the Council, almost caused the failure to conclude the Treaty of Nice, clearing the way for the Eastern enlargement. The traditional balance between France and Germany has been eroded. Germany has consolidated its role of leadership in the EU, and above all towards the candidate countries. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the fifth enlargement as one of the causes of the decline of the Franco-German axis as the motor of the process of European integration.

Genetic homogeneity of dolphinfish (Coryphaena hippurus) in the western Mediterranean and the eastern Atlantic

Dolphinfish (Coryphaena hippurus) is an epipelagic, highly migratory species distributed worldwide in tropical and temperate waters including the Mediterranean Sea. Protein electrophoresis analyses can provide knowledge of the genetic population structure of the species and therefore be used as a tool for fishery management. Areas sampled include the islands of Majorca and Sicily in the western Mediterranean and the Canary Islands in the eastern Atlantic. The results of the protein electrophoresis reveal a level of genetic variability similar to other highly migratory species. No differences were found among locations, and it was not possible to reject the null hypothesis of one panmictic population in the area studied

Travertines and volcanic landforms in the eastern pyrenees margin

Travertines and volcanic landforms in the eastern pyrenees margin

Graduate labor mismatch in Central and Eastern Europe

[cat] Utilitzant l’enquesta REFLEX/HEGESCO, aquest article explora la probabilitat de desajustament entre educació i treball a l’Europa de l’Est i Central. Classifiquem els països en dos grups segons la transparència dels títols educatius al mercat de treball. Polònia, la República Txeca i Eslovènia formen el grup amb més transparència, i Hongria, Lituània i Estònia formen el grup amb més opacitat. Analitzem tres tipus de desajustaments: el vertical (infra‐, sobre‐educació), l’horitzontal (desajustament del camp d’estudi) i el desajust en habilitats. Focalitzem l’anàlisi en l’efecte dels camps d’estudi i les competències dels individus en el desajustament del mercat laboral en aquests països. Els resultats mostren importants diferències entre els dos grups de països estudiats.

Rapid radiation in spiny lobsters (Palinurus spp) as revealed by classic and ABC methods using mtDNA and microsatellite data

Background: Molecular tools may help to uncover closely related and still diverging species from a wide variety of taxa and provide insight into the mechanisms, pace and geography of marine speciation. There is a certain controversy on the phylogeography and speciation modes of species-groups with an Eastern Atlantic-Western Indian Ocean distribution, with previous studies suggesting that older events (Miocene) and/or more recent (Pleistocene) oceanographic processes could have influenced the phylogeny of marine taxa. The spiny lobster genus Palinurus allows for testing among speciation hypotheses, since it has a particular distribution with two groups of three species each in the Northeastern Atlantic (P. elephas, P. mauritanicus and P. charlestoni) and Southeastern Atlantic and Southwestern Indian Oceans (P. gilchristi, P. delagoae and P. barbarae). In the present study, we obtain a more complete understanding of the phylogenetic relationships among these species through a combined dataset with both nuclear and mitochondrial markers, by testing alternative hypotheses on both the mutation rate and tree topology under the recently developed approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods. Results Our analyses support a North-to-South speciation pattern in Palinurus with all the South-African species forming a monophyletic clade nested within the Northern Hemisphere species. Coalescent-based ABC methods allowed us to reject the previously proposed hypothesis of a Middle Miocene speciation event related with the closure of the Tethyan Seaway. Instead, divergence times obtained for Palinurus species using the combined mtDNA-microsatellite dataset and standard mutation rates for mtDNA agree with known glaciation-related processes occurring during the last 2 my. Conclusion The Palinurus speciation pattern is a typical example of a series of rapid speciation events occurring within a group, with very short branches separating different species. Our results support the hypothesis that recent climate change-related oceanographic processes have influenced the phylogeny of marine taxa, with most Palinurus species originating during the last two million years. The present study highlights the value of new coalescent-based statistical methods such as ABC for testing different speciation hypotheses using molecular data.

Graduate labor mismatch in Central and Eastern Europe

[cat] Utilitzant l’enquesta REFLEX/HEGESCO, aquest article explora la probabilitat de desajustament entre educació i treball a l’Europa de l’Est i Central. Classifiquem els països en dos grups segons la transparència dels títols educatius al mercat de treball. Polònia, la República Txeca i Eslovènia formen el grup amb més transparència, i Hongria, Lituània i Estònia formen el grup amb més opacitat. Analitzem tres tipus de desajustaments: el vertical (infra‐, sobre‐educació), l’horitzontal (desajustament del camp d’estudi) i el desajust en habilitats. Focalitzem l’anàlisi en l’efecte dels camps d’estudi i les competències dels individus en el desajustament del mercat laboral en aquests països. Els resultats mostren importants diferències entre els dos grups de països estudiats.

Wave-height hazard analysis in Eastern Coast of Spain : Bayesian approach using generalized Pareto distribution

Standard practice of wave-height hazard analysis often pays little attention to the uncertainty of assessed return periods and occurrence probabilities. This fact favors the opinion that, when large events happen, the hazard assessment should change accordingly. However, uncertainty of the hazard estimates is normally able to hide the effect of those large events. This is illustrated using data from the Mediterranean coast of Spain, where the last years have been extremely disastrous. Thus, it is possible to compare the hazard assessment based on data previous to those years with the analysis including them. With our approach, no significant change is detected when the statistical uncertainty is taken into account. The hazard analysis is carried out with a standard model. Time-occurrence of events is assumed Poisson distributed. The wave-height of each event is modelled as a random variable which upper tail follows a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). Moreover, wave-heights are assumed independent from event to event and also independent of their occurrence in time. A threshold for excesses is assessed empirically. The other three parameters (Poisson rate, shape and scale parameters of GPD) are jointly estimated using Bayes' theorem. Prior distribution accounts for physical features of ocean waves in the Mediterranean sea and experience with these phenomena. Posterior distribution of the parameters allows to obtain posterior distributions of other derived parameters like occurrence probabilities and return periods. Predictives are also available. Computations are carried out using the program BGPE v2.0

Mesoscale numerical analysis of the historical November 1982 heavy precipitation event over Andorra (Eastern Pyrenees)

From 6 to 8 November 1982 one of the most catastrophic flash-flood events was recorded in the Eastern Pyrenees affecting Andorra and also France and Spain with rainfall accumulations exceeding 400 mm in 24 h, 44 fatalities and widespread damage. This paper aims to exhaustively document this heavy precipitation event and examines mesoscale simulations performed by the French Meso-NH non-hydrostatic atmospheric model. Large-scale simulations show the slow-evolving synoptic environment favourable for the development of a deep Atlantic cyclone which induced a strong southerly flow over the Eastern Pyrenees. From the evolution of the synoptic pattern four distinct phases have been identified during the event. The mesoscale analysis presents the second and the third phase as the most intense in terms of rainfall accumulations and highlights the interaction of the moist and conditionally unstable flows with the mountains. The presence of a SW low level jet (30 m s-1) around 1500 m also had a crucial role on focusing the precipitation over the exposed south slopes of the Eastern Pyrenees. Backward trajectories based on Eulerian on-line passive tracers indicate that the orographic uplift was the main forcing mechanism which triggered and maintained the precipitating systems more than 30 h over the Pyrenees. The moisture of the feeding flow mainly came from the Atlantic Ocean (7-9 g kg-1) and the role of the Mediterranean as a local moisture source was very limited (2-3 g kg-1) due to the high initial water vapour content of the parcels and the rapid passage over the basin along the Spanish Mediterranean coast (less than 12 h).

Domestic architecture and social differences in North-Eastern Iberia during the iron age (c.525-200 BC)

This paper is concerned with the organization of societies in north-eastern Iberia (present-day Catalonia) during the Iron Age, using data provided by domestic architecture and settlement organization. I offer an analysis of the social differences detected in the dwellings based on a sample of houses excavated at different types of settlement. Although many Iberian houses had simple layouts and small surface areas, some larger dwellings at the main sites are distinguished by the shape of their ground plans, their surface areas, architectural features, and central locations; these houses are believed to be the residences of the Iberian elite. Such dwellings are not found at all sites and the data suggest that there was a relationship between the category of the settlement (or its function) and the types of dwelling in it.