The Spread of free-riding behavior in a social network

We study a model where agents, located in a social network, decide whether to exert effort or not in experimenting with a new technology (or acquiring a new skill, innovating, etc.). We assume that agents have strong incentives to free ride on their neighbors' effort decisions. In the static version of the model efforts are chosen simultaneously. In equilibrium, agents exerting effort are never connected with each other and all other agents are connected with at least one agent exerting effort. We propose a mean-field dynamics in which agents choose in each period the best response to the last period's decisions of their neighbors. We characterize the equilibrium of such a dynamics and show how the pattern of free riders in the network depends on properties of the connectivity distribution.

Macroeconomics of extensive margins: a simple model

How do monopolistically competitive industries react to shocks in the context of a New Keynesian macro model? I bridge macroeconomics and trade theory by considering market dynamics. I use an analytically tractable closed-economy model with endogenous entry of firms and show the implications of markets structure for the transmission of real shocks on aggregate variables and welfare. Shock sources become crucial for the results: traditional productivity shocks cause an extensive effect on production; shocks on innovation cause an intensive impact. More patient populations bring the economy to a richer market, although it cushions the extensive effect after an innovation shock.

Sunk costs, extensive R&D subsidies and permanent inducement effects

We study whether there is scope for using subsidies to smooth out barriers to R&D performance and expand the share of R&D firms in Spain. We consider a dynamic model with sunk entry costs in which firms’ optimal participation strategy is defined in terms of two subsidy thresholds that characterise entry and continuation. We compute the subsidy thresholds from the estimates of a dynamic panel data type-2 tobit model for an unbalanced panel of about 2,000 Spanish manufacturing firms. The results suggest that “extensive” subsidies are a feasible and efficient tool for expanding the share of R&D firms.

Analysis and Monte Carlo simulations of a model for the spread of infectious diseases in heterogeneous metapopulations

We present a study of the continuous-time equations governing the dynamics of a susceptible infected-susceptible model on heterogeneous metapopulations. These equations have been recently proposed as an alternative formulation for the spread of infectious diseases in metapopulations in a continuous-time framework. Individual-based Monte Carlo simulations of epidemic spread in uncorrelated networks are also performed revealing a good agreement with analytical predictions under the assumption of simultaneous transmission or recovery and migration processes

Teaching ethnic diversity in journalism school

It has been found that the symbolic elites have a prominent role in the discursive reproduction of racism in society, because they control the public discourse through which many ethnic prejudices are spread and shared. This special position of the mass media requires that the professional education of journalists, also featuring such topics as ethnic studies, diversity and racism, is optimally adapted to the multicultural societies in Europe, North America and Australia. This paper reports about an extensive research project examining ethnic education of journalists in these white-dominated countries, by examining the websites of many journalism and communication departments. Consistent with the general finding that white symbolic elites primarily deny or ignore (their) racism in society, none of the academic programs, anywhere in the world, mentions special classes on racism in the mass media. Finally, a practical proposal is made for a course on ethnic reporting in multicultural societies.

On the goodness of fit of Kirk's formula for spread option prices

In this paper we investigate the goodness of fit of the Kirk's approximation formula for spread option prices in the correlated lognormal framework. Towards this end, we use the Malliavin calculus techniques to find an expression for the short-time implied volatility skew of options with random strikes. In particular, we obtain that this skew is very pronounced in the case of spread options with extremely high correlations, which cannot be reproduced by a constant volatility approximation as in the Kirk's formula. This fact agrees with the empirical evidence. Numerical examples are given.

Causal assessment in finite extensive-form games

Two finite extensive-form games are empirically equivalent when theempirical distribution on action profiles generated by every behaviorstrategy in one can also be generated by an appropriately chosen behaviorstrategy in the other. This paper provides a characterization ofempirical equivalence. The central idea is to relate a game's informationstructure to the conditional independencies in the empirical distributionsit generates. We present a new analytical device, the influence opportunitydiagram of a game, describe how such a diagram is constructed for a givenextensive-form game, and demonstrate that it provides a complete summaryof the information needed to test empirical equivalence between two games.

On the spread of the European catfish (Silurus glanis) in the Iberian Peninsula: first record in the Llobregat river basin

The first record of the European catfish (Silurus glanis L. 1758) introduced to the Llobregat river basin (NE Spain) is reported. We captured one individual of this silurid fish species (of a total of 541 fish) in La Baells reservoir on 30 August 2006. Given the low catchability of this fish species, the popularity among some anglers, and old rumours on this introduction, we hypothesize that this species has been present in the reservoir since a few years ago, despite we did not capture it in two previous surveys. The illegal introduction of this and other exotic species to other Iberian river basins should be prevented by the Spanish administration

Modelling the evolution and spread of HIV immune escape mutants.

During infection with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), immune pressure from cytotoxic T-lymphocytes (CTLs) selects for viral mutants that confer escape from CTL recognition. These escape variants can be transmitted between individuals where, depending upon their cost to viral fitness and the CTL responses made by the recipient, they may revert. The rates of within-host evolution and their concordant impact upon the rate of spread of escape mutants at the population level are uncertain. Here we present a mathematical model of within-host evolution of escape mutants, transmission of these variants between hosts and subsequent reversion in new hosts. The model is an extension of the well-known SI model of disease transmission and includes three further parameters that describe host immunogenetic heterogeneity and rates of within host viral evolution. We use the model to explain why some escape mutants appear to have stable prevalence whilst others are spreading through the population. Further, we use it to compare diverse datasets on CTL escape, highlighting where different sources agree or disagree on within-host evolutionary rates. The several dozen CTL epitopes we survey from HIV-1 gag, RT and nef reveal a relatively sedate rate of evolution with average rates of escape measured in years and reversion in decades. For many epitopes in HIV, occasional rapid within-host evolution is not reflected in fast evolution at the population level.

On the q=1/2 non-extensive maximum entropy distribution

A detailed mathematical analysis on the q = 1/2 non-extensive maximum entropydistribution of Tsallis' is undertaken. The analysis is based upon the splitting of such adistribution into two orthogonal components. One of the components corresponds to theminimum norm solution of the problem posed by the fulfillment of the a priori conditionson the given expectation values. The remaining component takes care of the normalizationconstraint and is the projection of a constant onto the Null space of the "expectation-values-transformation"

A non-extensive maximum entropy based regulations method for bad conditioned inverse problems

A regularization method based on the non-extensive maximum entropy principle is devised. Special emphasis is given to the q=1/2 case. We show that, when the residual principle is considered as constraint, the q=1/2 generalized distribution of Tsallis yields a regularized solution for bad-conditioned problems. The so devised regularized distribution is endowed with a component which corresponds to the well known regularized solution of Tikhonov (1977).

Coal deposition in carbonate rich shallow Lacustrine systems: The Calaf and Mequinenza sequences (Oligocene, eastern Ebro Basin, NE Spain)

Two main coal-bearing sequences developed during the Oligocene in the Tertiary Ebro Basin, the Calaf (early Oligocene) and Mequinenza (late Oligocene) coal basins. Coal deposition took place in shallow marsh-swamp-lake complexes which sometimes became closed and evolved under warm climatic conditions with fluctuating humidity. These shallow lacustrine systems are closely interrelated with the terminal parts of the distributive fluvial systems which spread from the tectonically active Ebro basin margins. Laterally extensive lignite-bearing sequences, including rather thin, lenticular autochthonous and/or hypautochthonous coal seams with high ash and sulphur contents, characterized coal deposition in the shallow lacustrine systems. Coal seam geometry, which makes them nearly subeconomic, resulted from the tectonic instability during basin margin evolution and the sometimes closed, arid conditions under which the lacustrine systems evolved. High ash and sulphur contents resulted from the inadequate isolation of peat forming environments from clastic influx and from the very low acidity and sometimes high sulphate contents of the lacustrine waters. Coal exploration in shallow lacustrine sequences similar to those described here must take into account that the spread of coal-forming environments and maxima of coal deposition are usually coincident with lake expansions and retraction or shifting of the terminal fluvial zones interrelated with the lacustrine areas.

Modelling the Evolution and Spread of HIV Immune Escape Mutants.

During infection with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), immune pressure from cytotoxic T-lymphocytes (CTLs) selects for viral mutants that confer escape from CTL recognition. These escape variants can be transmitted between individuals where, depending upon their cost to viral fitness and the CTL responses made by the recipient, they may revert. The rates of within-host evolution and their concordant impact upon the rate of spread of escape mutants at the population level are uncertain. Here we present a mathematical model of within-host evolution of escape mutants, transmission of these variants between hosts and subsequent reversion in new hosts. The model is an extension of the well-known SI model of disease transmission and includes three further parameters that describe host immunogenetic heterogeneity and rates of within host viral evolution. We use the model to explain why some escape mutants appear to have stable prevalence whilst others are spreading through the population. Further, we use it to compare diverse datasets on CTL escape, highlighting where different sources agree or disagree on within-host evolutionary rates. The several dozen CTL epitopes we survey from HIV-1 gag, RT and nef reveal a relatively sedate rate of evolution with average rates of escape measured in years and reversion in decades. For many epitopes in HIV, occasional rapid within-host evolution is not reflected in fast evolution at the population level.

An update on EMU sovereign yield spread drivers in times of crisis: A panel data analysis

We empirically investigate the determinants of EMU sovereign bond yield spreads with respect to the German bund. Using panel data techniques, we examine the role of a wide set of potential drivers. To our knowledge, this paper presents one of the most exhaustive compilations of the variables used in the literature to study the behaviour of sovereign yield spreads and, in particular, to gauge the effect on these spreads of changes in market sentiment and risk aversion. We use a sample of both central and peripheral countries from January 1999 to December 2012 and assess whether there were significant changes after the outbreak of the euro area debt crisis. Our results suggest that the rise in sovereign risk in central countries can only be partially explained by the evolution of local macroeconomic variables in those countries.

An update on EMU sovereign yield spread drivers in times of crisis: A panel data analysis

We empirically investigate the determinants of EMU sovereign bond yield spreads with respect to the German bund. Using panel data techniques, we examine the role of a wide set of potential drivers. To our knowledge, this paper presents one of the most exhaustive compilations of the variables used in the literature to study the behaviour of sovereign yield spreads and, in particular, to gauge the effect on these spreads of changes in market sentiment and risk aversion. We use a sample of both central and peripheral countries from January 1999 to December 2012 and assess whether there were significant changes after the outbreak of the euro area debt crisis. Our results suggest that the rise in sovereign risk in central countries can only be partially explained by the evolution of local macroeconomic variables in those countries.