Prediction of Childhood Asthma Using Conditional Probability and Discrete Event Simulation

Abstract: Asthma prevalence in children and adolescents in Spain is 10-17%. It is the most common chronic illness during childhood. Prevalence has been increasing over the last 40 years and there is considerable evidence that, among other factors, continued exposure to cigarette smoke results in asthma in children. No statistical or simulation model exist to forecast the evolution of childhood asthma in Europe. Such a model needs to incorporate the main risk factors that can be managed by medical authorities, such as tobacco (OR = 1.44), to establish how they affect the present generation of children. A simulation model using conditional probability and discrete event simulation for childhood asthma was developed and validated by simulating realistic scenario. The parameters used for the model (input data) were those found in the bibliography, especially those related to the incidence of smoking in Spain. We also used data from a panel of experts from the Hospital del Mar (Barcelona) related to actual evolution and asthma phenotypes. The results obtained from the simulation established a threshold of a 15-20% smoking population for a reduction in the prevalence of asthma. This is still far from the current level in Spain, where 24% of people smoke. We conclude that more effort must be made to combat smoking and other childhood asthma risk factors, in order to significantly reduce the number of cases. Once completed, this simulation methodology can realistically be used to forecast the evolution of childhood asthma as a function of variation in different risk factors.

Simulation methods with extended stability for stiff biochemical kinetics

Background: With increasing computer power, simulating the dynamics of complex systems in chemistry and biology is becoming increasingly routine. The modelling of individual reactions in (bio)chemical systems involves a large number of random events that can be simulated by the stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA). The key quantity is the step size, or waiting time, τ, whose value inversely depends on the size of the propensities of the different channel reactions and which needs to be re-evaluated after every firing event. Such a discrete event simulation may be extremely expensive, in particular for stiff systems where τ can be very short due to the fast kinetics of some of the channel reactions. Several alternative methods have been put forward to increase the integration step size. The so-called τ-leap approach takes a larger step size by allowing all the reactions to fire, from a Poisson or Binomial distribution, within that step. Although the expected value for the different species in the reactive system is maintained with respect to more precise methods, the variance at steady state can suffer from large errors as τ grows. Results: In this paper we extend Poisson τ-leap methods to a general class of Runge-Kutta (RK) τ-leap methods. We show that with the proper selection of the coefficients, the variance of the extended τ-leap can be well-behaved, leading to significantly larger step sizes.Conclusions: The benefit of adapting the extended method to the use of RK frameworks is clear in terms of speed of calculation, as the number of evaluations of the Poisson distribution is still one set per time step, as in the original τ-leap method. The approach paves the way to explore new multiscale methods to simulate (bio)chemical systems.

Aplicacions web per al treball col·laboratiu : disseny i prototipatge d'un sistema d'esdeveniments per a mòbils en el treball en grup

Projecte de fi de carrera del 2n cicle de la Eng. Informàtica, realitzat per Jose Roig Torres (01/2012). Aplicacions Web per Treball Col·laboratiu: Disseny i Prototipatge d'un sistema d'esdeveniments per mòbils en el treball en grup.

Diseño y prototipo de un sistema de eventos para dispositivos móviles en el trabajo en grupo

El present treball de fi de carrera té com a objectiu la conceptualització, disseny i prototip d'un sistema d'esdeveniments per a dispositius mòbils que permetin la comunicació entre Universitat, Docent i Alumne independentment de l'espai físic i temporal de qualsevol d'aquests actors, utilitzant per a això els dispositius mòbils i smartphones d'àmplia presència i ús.

Discontinuous Galerkin methods for the one-dimensional Vlasov-Poisson system

We construct a new family of semi-discrete numerical schemes for the approximation of the one-dimensional periodic Vlasov-Poisson system. The methods are based on the coupling of discontinuous Galerkin approximation to the Vlasov equation and several finite element (conforming, non-conforming and mixed) approximations for the Poisson problem. We show optimal error estimates for the all proposed methods in the case of smooth compactly supported initial data. The issue of energy conservation is also analyzed for some of the methods.

Radar analysis of the life cycle of mesoscale convective systems during the 10 June 2000 event

The 10 June 2000 event was the largest flash flood event that occurred in the Northeast of Spain in the late 20th century, both as regards its meteorological features and its considerable social impact. This paper focuses on analysis of the structures that produced the heavy rainfalls, especially from the point of view of meteorological radar. Due to the fact that this case is a good example of a Mediterranean flash flood event, a final objective of this paper is to undertake a description of the evolution of the rainfall structure that would be sufficiently clear to be understood at an interdisciplinary forum. Then, it could be useful not only to improve conceptual meteorological models, but also for application in downscaling models. The main precipitation structure was a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) that crossed the region and that developed as a consequence of the merging of two previous squall lines. The paper analyses the main meteorological features that led to the development and triggering of the heavy rainfalls, with special emphasis on the features of this MCS, its life cycle and its dynamic features. To this end, 2-D and 3-D algorithms were applied to the imagery recorded over the complete life cycle of the structures, which lasted approximately 18 h. Mesoscale and synoptic information were also considered. Results show that it was an NS-MCS, quasi-stationary during its stage of maturity as a consequence of the formation of a convective train, the different displacement directions of the 2-D structures and the 3-D structures, including the propagation of new cells, and the slow movement of the convergence line associated with the Mediterranean mesoscale low.

Discrete analysis of dividend payments in a non-life insurance portfolio

The process of free reserves in a non-life insurance portfolio as defined in the classical model of risk theory is modified by the introduction of dividend policies that set maximum levels for the accumulation of reserves. The first part of the work formulates the quantification of the dividend payments via the expectation of their current value under diferent hypotheses. The second part presents a solution based on a system of linear equations for discrete dividend payments in the case of a constant dividend barrier, illustrated by solving a specific case.

Discrete analysis of dividend payments in a non-life insurance portfolio

The process of free reserves in a non-life insurance portfolio as defined in the classical model of risk theory is modified by the introduction of dividend policies that set maximum levels for the accumulation of reserves. The first part of the work formulates the quantification of the dividend payments via the expectation of their current value under diferent hypotheses. The second part presents a solution based on a system of linear equations for discrete dividend payments in the case of a constant dividend barrier, illustrated by solving a specific case.

Nonlinear chemoconvection in the Methylene-blue-glucose system

Interfacial hydrodynamic instabilities arise in a range of chemical systems. One mechanism for instability is the occurrence of unstable density gradients due to the accumulation of reaction products. In this paper we conduct two-dimensional nonlinear numerical simulations for a member of this class of system: the methylene-blue¿glucose reaction. The result of these reactions is the oxidation of glucose to a relatively, but marginally, dense product, gluconic acid, that accumulates at oxygen permeable interfaces, such as the surface open to the atmosphere. The reaction is catalyzed by methylene-blue. We show that simulations help to disassemble the mechanisms responsible for the onset of instability and evolution of patterns, and we demonstrate that some of the results are remarkably consistent with experiments. We probe the impact of the upper oxygen boundary condition, for fixed flux, fixed concentration, or mixed boundary conditions, and find significant qualitative differences in solution behavior; structures either attract or repel one another depending on the boundary condition imposed. We suggest that measurement of the form of the boundary condition is possible via observation of oxygen penetration, and improved product yields may be obtained via proper control of boundary conditions in an engineering setting. We also investigate the dependence on parameters such as the Rayleigh number and depth. Finally, we find that pseudo-steady linear and weakly nonlinear techniques described elsewhere are useful tools for predicting the behavior of instabilities beyond their formal range of validity, as good agreement is obtained with the simulations.

Efficient self-synchronised blind audio watermarking system based on time domain and FFT amplitude modification

Many audio watermarking schemes divide the audio signal into several blocks such that part of the watermark is embedded into each of them. One of the key issues in these block-oriented watermarking schemes is to preserve the synchronisation, i.e. to recover the exact position of each block in the mark recovery process. In this paper, a novel time domain synchronisation technique is presented together with a new blind watermarking scheme which works in the Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT or FFT) domain. The combined scheme provides excellent imperceptibility results whilst achieving robustness against typical attacks. Furthermore, the execution of the scheme is fast enough to be used in real-time applications. The excellent transparency of the embedding algorithm makes it particularly useful for professional applications, such as the embedding of monitoring information in broadcast signals. The scheme is also compared with some recent results of the literature.

Metal dealing at the origin of the Chordata phylum: The metallothionein system and metal overload response in Amphioxus.

Non-vertebrate chordates, specifically amphioxus, are considered of the utmost interest for gaining insight into the evolutionary trends, i.e. differentiation and specialization, of gene/protein systems. In this work, MTs (metallothioneins), the most important metal binding proteins, are characterized for the first time in the cephalochordate subphylum at both gene and protein level, together with the main features defining the amphioxus response to cadmium and copper overload. Two MT genes (BfMT1 and BfMT2) have been identified in a contiguous region of the genome, as well as several ARE (antioxidant response element) and MRE (metal response element) located upstream the transcribed region. Their corresponding cDNAs exhibit identical sequence in the two lancelet species (B. floridae and B. lanceolatum), BfMT2 cDNA resulting from an alternative splicing event. BfMT1 is a polyvalent metal binding peptide that coordinates any of the studied metal ions (Zn, Cd or Cu) rendering complexes stable enough to last in physiological environments, which is fully concordant with the constitutive expression of its gene, and therefore, with a metal homeostasis housekeeping role. On the contrary, BfMT2 exhibits a clear ability to coordinate Cd(II) ions, while it is absolutely unable to fold into stable Cu (I) complexes, even as mixed species. This identifies it as an essential detoxification agent, which is consequently only induced in emergency situations. The cephalochordate MTs are not directly related to vertebrate MTs, neither by gene structure, protein similarity nor metal-binding behavior of the encoded peptides. The closest relative is the echinoderm MT, which confirm proposed phylogenetic relationships between these two groups. The current findings support the existence in most organisms of two types of MTs as for their metal binding preferences, devoted to different biological functions: multivalent MTs for housekeeping roles, and specialized MTs that evolve either as Cd-thioneins or Cu-thioneins, according to the ecophysiological needs of each kind of organisms.

Long-term X-ray variability of the microquasar system LS5039/RX J1826.2-1450

We report on the results of the spectral and timing analysis of a BeppoSAX observation of the microquasar system LS 5039/RX J1826.2-1450. The source was found in a low-flux state with Fx(1-10 keV)= 4.7 x 10^{-12} erg cm^{-2} s^{-1}, which represents almost one order of magnitude lower than a previous RXTE observation 2.5 years before. The 0.1--10 keV spectrum is described by an absorbed power-law continuum with photon-number spectral index Gamma=1.8+-0.2 and hydrogen column density of NH=1.0^{+0.4}_{-0.3} x 10^{22} cm^{-2}. According to the orbital parameters of the system the BeppoSAX observation covers the time of an X-ray eclipse should one occur. However, the 1.6-10 keV light curve does not show evidence for such an event, which allows us to give an upper limit to the inclination of the system. The low X-ray flux detected during this observation is interpreted as a decrease in the mass accretion rate onto the compact object due to a decrease in the mass-loss rate from the primary.