Market rewards to patterns on increasing earnings: do cash flow patterns, accruals manipulation and real activities manipulation matter?

This study explores whether firms have differential price-earnings multiples associated with their means of achieving a sequential pattern of increasing positive earnings. Our main findings show that market participants assign higher price-earnings multiples to firms when their pattern of increasing earnings is supported by the same pattern of increasing cash flows. Market participants assign lower price-earnings multiples to firms suspect of having engaged in accrual-based earnings management, sales manipulation, and overproduction to achieve the earnings pattern. We find, however, that market participants do not penalize firms suspect of having achieved the earnings pattern through the opportunistic reduction of discretionary expenses.

Neglected risks, financial innovation, and financial fragility

We present a standard model of financial innovation, in which intermediaries engineer securities with cash flows that investors seek, but modify two assumptions. First, investors (and possibly intermediaries) neglect certain unlikely risks. Second, investors demand securities with safe cash flows. Financial intermediaries cater to these preferences and beliefs by engineering securities perceived to be safe but exposed to neglected risks. Because the risks are neglected, security issuance is excessive. As investors eventually recognize these risks, they fly back to safety of traditional securities and markets become fragile, even without leverage, precisely because the volume of new claims is excessive.

Neglected risks, financial innovation and financial fragility

We present a standard model of financial innovation, in which intermediaries engineer securities with cash flows that investors seek, but modify two assumptions. First, investors (and possibly intermediaries) neglect certain unlikely risks. Second, investors demand securities with safe cash flows. Financial intermediaries cater to these preferences and beliefs by engineering securities perceived to be safe but exposed to neglected risks. Because the risks are neglected, security issuance is excessive. As investors eventually recognize these risks, they fly back to safety of traditional securities and markets become fragile, even without leverage, precisely because the volume of new claims is excessive.

Anàlisi de l'estat de canvis en el patrimoni net i l'estat de fluxos d'efectiu : interpretació i anàlisi 2007-2011

L’objectiu d’aquest treball ha estat l’anàlisi dels dos nous documents comptables, l’Estat de Canvis en el Patrimoni Net – ECPN – i l’Estat de Fluxos d’Efectiu – EFE‐, introduïts amb la reforma comptable de 2007 [Reial Decret 1514/2007 de 16 de novembre i Reial Decret 1515/2007 per a petites i mitjanes empreses]. Aquest anàlisis s’ha portat a terme amb la finalitat d’analitzar com ha millorat i augmentat la informació per la presa de millors decisions tant per les empreses com per analistes externs. El treball consta de dues parts, la primera part està formada per un anàlisis teòric d’aquests dos documents. La segona part està formada per un anàlisis pràctic de les empreses del sector de Materials Bàsics, Indústria i Construcció de la Borsa de Madrid. D’aquestes empreses s’ha realitzat un anàlisis convencional i l’ anàlisis dels corresponents ECPN i EFE de cadascuna de les empreses, amb l’objectiu de comprovar la millora de la informació.

Fair value versus historic cost-valuation for biological assets: Implications for the quality of financial information

[spa] Este trabajo realiza un estudio empírico sobre los efectos, que se señalan en las discusiones teóricas, de la utilización del valor razonable (VR) frente al coste histórico (CH), utilizando dos muestras de explotaciones agrícolas, una de las cuales valora sus activos biológicos a CH y la otra a VR. No se encontraron diferencias significativas en los beneficios e ingresos entre ambas muestras, ni siquiera en sus volatilidades. Tampoco se encontraron diferencias significativas en rentabilidad, manipulación contable, ni en el poder de ambos criterios de valoración para predecir los flujos de tesorería. Por el contrario, la mayor parte de los tests realizados revelan un mayor poder de los beneficios calculados bajo el VR para la predicción de los beneficios futuros, respecto de cuando son calculados bajo el CH. El estudio proporciona también evidencia empírica de prácticas contables defectuosas de CH en el sector agrícola, concluyendo que el VR puede representar un criterio de valoración interesante para un sector, como el agrícola, caracterizado por el predominio de pequeñas explotaciones familiares.

Fair value versus historic cost-valuation for biological assets: Implications for the quality of financial information

[spa] Este trabajo realiza un estudio empírico sobre los efectos, que se señalan en las discusiones teóricas, de la utilización del valor razonable (VR) frente al coste histórico (CH), utilizando dos muestras de explotaciones agrícolas, una de las cuales valora sus activos biológicos a CH y la otra a VR. No se encontraron diferencias significativas en los beneficios e ingresos entre ambas muestras, ni siquiera en sus volatilidades. Tampoco se encontraron diferencias significativas en rentabilidad, manipulación contable, ni en el poder de ambos criterios de valoración para predecir los flujos de tesorería. Por el contrario, la mayor parte de los tests realizados revelan un mayor poder de los beneficios calculados bajo el VR para la predicción de los beneficios futuros, respecto de cuando son calculados bajo el CH. El estudio proporciona también evidencia empírica de prácticas contables defectuosas de CH en el sector agrícola, concluyendo que el VR puede representar un criterio de valoración interesante para un sector, como el agrícola, caracterizado por el predominio de pequeñas explotaciones familiares.

Fair value versus historical cost-based valuation for biological assets: Predictability of financial information

There is an intense debate on the convenience of moving from historical cost (HC) toward the fair value (FV) principle. The debate and academic research is usually concerned with financial instruments, but the IAS 41 requirement of fair valuation for biological assets brings it into the agricultural domain. This paper performs an empirical study with a sample of Spanish farms valuing biological assets at HC and a sample applying FV, finding no significant differences between both valuation methods to assess future cash flows. However, most tests reveal more predictive power of future earnings under fair valuation of biological assets, which is not explained by differences in volatility of earnings and profitability. The study also evidences the existence of flawed HC accounting practices for biological assets in agriculture, which suggests scarce information content of this valuation method in the predominant small business units existing in the agricultural sector in advanced Western countries

Endogeneizing know-how flows through the nature of R&D investments

In this paper we carefully link knowledge flows to and from a firms innovation process with this firms investment decisions. Three types of investments are considered: investments in applied research, investments in basic research, and investments in intellectual property protection. Only when basic research is performed, can the firm effectively access incoming knowledge flows and these incoming spillovers serve to increase the efficiency of own applied research.. The firm can at the same time influence outgoing knowledge flows, improving appropriability of its innovations, by investing in protection. Our results indicate that firms with small budgets for innovation will not invest in basic research. This occurs in the short run, when the budget for know-how creation is restricted, or in the long-run, when market opportunities are low, when legal protection is not very important, or, when the pool of accessible and relevant external know-how is limited. The ratio! of basic to applied research is non-decreasing in the size of the pool of accessible external know-how, the size and opportunity of the market, and, the effectiveness of intellectual property rights protection. This indicates the existence of economies of scale in basic research due to external market related factors. Empirical evidence from a sample of innovative manufacturing firms in Belgium confirms the economies of scale in basic research as a consequence of the firms capacity to access external knowledge flows and to protect intellectual property, as well as the complementarity between legal and strategic investments.

The biophysical perspective of a middle income economy: material flows in Mexico

We analyse natural resource use dynamics in the Mexican economy during the last three decades. Despite low and uneven economic growth, the extraction and use of materials in the Mexican economy has continuously increased during the last 30 years. In this period, population growth rather than economic growth was the main driving force for biophysical growth. In addition, fundamental changes have taken place in the primary sectors, in manufacturing, and in household consumption and these are reflected in an increasing emphasis on the use of fossil fuels and construction materials. Mexico’s economy has been strongly influenced by international trade since the country commenced competing in international markets. In the 1970s, Mexico mainly exported primary resources. This pattern has changed and manufactured goods now have a much greater importance due to a boom in assembling industries. In contrast with other Latin American countries, Mexico has achieved a diversification of production, moving towards technology-intensive products and a better mix in its export portfolio. However, crude oil exports still represent the single most important export good. Mexico’s material consumption is still well below the OECD average but is growing fast and the current resource use patterns may well present serious social and environmental problems to the medium and long term sustainability of Mexico’s economy and community. Information on natural resource use and resource productivity could provide valuable guidance for economic policy planning in Mexico.

The size of the underground economy in Germany: A correction of the record and new evidence from the Modified-Cash-deposit-Ratio approach

Based on the Ahumada et al. (2007, Review of Income and Wealth) critique we revise existing estimates of the size of the German underground economy. Among other things, it turns out that most of these estimates are untenable and that the tax pressure induced size of the German underground economy may be much lower than previously thought. To this extent, German policy and law makers have been misguided during the last three decades. Therefore, we introduce the Modified-Cash-Deposit-Ratio (MCDR) approach, which is not subject to the recent critique and apply it to Germany for the period 1960 to 2008. JEL: O17, Q41, C22, Keywords: underground economy, shadow economy, cash-depositratio, currency demand approach, MIMIC approach

Migration and information flows. A new lens for the study of contemporary international migration

Aquest document de treball mira d'establir un nou camp d'investigació a la cruïlla entre els fluxos de migració i d'informació i comunicació. Hi ha diversos factors que fan que valgui la pena adoptar aquesta perspectiva. El punt central és que la migració internacional contemporània és incrustada en la dinàmica de la societat de la informació, seguint models comuns i dinàmiques interconnectades. Per consegüent, s'està començant a identificar els fluxos d'informació com a qüestions clau en les polítiques de migració. A més, hi ha una manca de coneixement empíric en el disseny de xarxes d'informació i l'ús de les tecnologies d'informació i comunicació en contextos migratoris. Aquest document de treball també mira de ser una font d'hipòtesis per a investigacions posteriors.

Regional flows of domestic tourism in Spain = Flujos regionales del turismo doméstico en España

The paper analyses the regional flows of domestic tourism that took place in Spain in year 2000, contributing to the state of knowledge on tourism required by authorities and private firms when faced with decision making, for example, for regional infrastructure planning. Although tourism is one of the main income-generating economic activities in Spain, domestic tourism has received little attention in the literature compared to inbound tourism. The paper uses among others, gravitational model tools and concentration indices, to analyse regional concentration of both domestic demand and supply; tourism flows among regions, and the causes that may explain the observed flows and attractiveness between regions. Among the most remarkable results are the high regional concentration of demand and supply, and the role of population and regional income as explanatory variables. Also remarkable are the attractiveness of own region and neighbour ones, and that domestic tourism may be acting as a regional income redistributing activity

Admission Control for TCP Flows Using Packet Classes and Edge-to-edge Measurements of Aggregates

TCP flows from applications such as the web or ftp are well supported by a Guaranteed Minimum Throughput Service (GMTS), which provides a minimum network throughput to the flow and, if possible, an extra throughput. We propose a scheme for a GMTS using Admission Control (AC) that is able to provide different minimum throughput to different users and that is suitable for "standard" TCP flows. Moreover, we consider a multidomain scenario where the scheme is used in one of the domains, and we propose some mechanisms for the interconnection with neighbor domains. The whole scheme uses a small set of packet classes in a core-stateless network where each class has a different discarding priority in queues assigned to it. The AC method involves only edge nodes and uses a special probing packet flow (marked as the highest discarding priority class) that is sent continuously from ingress to egress through a path. The available throughput in the path is obtained at the egress using measurements of flow aggregates, and then it is sent back to the ingress. At the ingress each flow is detected using an implicit way and then it is admission controlled. If it is accepted, it receives the GMTS and its packets are marked as the lowest discarding priority classes; otherwise, it receives a best-effort service. The scheme is evaluated through simulation in a simple "bottleneck" topology using different traffic loads consisting of "standard" TCP flows that carry files of varying sizes

Mapping sub-flows to p2mp LSPs

In previous work we proposed a multi-objective traffic engineering scheme (MHDB-S model) using different distribution trees to multicast several flows. In this paper, we propose a heuristic algorithm to create multiple point-to-multipoint (p2mp) LSPs based on the optimum sub-flow values obtained with our MHDB-S model. Moreover, a general problem for supporting multicasting in MPLS networks is the lack of labels. To reduce the number of labels used, a label space reduction algorithm solution is also considered