Developing methodologies to allow the robust prediction dynamic context dominated by perturbations

El principal objectiu del projecte era desenvolupar millores conceptuals i metodològiques que permetessin una millor predicció dels canvis en la distribució de les espècies (a una escala de paisatge) derivats de canvis ambientals en un context dominat per pertorbacions. En un primer estudi, vàrem comparar l'eficàcia de diferents models dinàmics per a predir la distribució de l'hortolà (Emberiza hortulana). Els nostres resultats indiquen que un model híbrid que combini canvis en la qualitat de l'hàbitat, derivats de canvis en el paisatge, amb un model poblacional espacialment explícit és una aproximació adequada per abordar canvis en la distribució d'espècies en contextos de dinàmica ambiental elevada i una capacitat de dispersió limitada de l'espècie objectiu. En un segon estudi abordarem la calibració mitjançant dades de seguiment de models de distribució dinàmics per a 12 espècies amb preferència per hàbitats oberts. Entre les conclusions extretes destaquem: (1) la necessitat de que les dades de seguiment abarquin aquelles àrees on es produeixen els canvis de qualitat; (2) el biaix que es produeix en la estimació dels paràmetres del model d'ocupació quan la hipòtesi de canvi de paisatge o el model de qualitat d'hàbitat són incorrectes. En el darrer treball estudiarem el possible impacte en 67 espècies d’ocells de diferents règims d’incendis, definits a partir de combinacions de nivells de canvi climàtic (portant a un augment esperat de la mida i freqüència d’incendis forestals), i eficiència d’extinció per part dels bombers. Segons els resultats dels nostres models, la combinació de factors antropogènics del regim d’incendis, tals com l’abandonament rural i l’extinció, poden ser més determinants per als canvis de distribució que els efectes derivats del canvi climàtic. Els productes generats inclouen tres publicacions científiques, una pàgina web amb resultats del projecte i una llibreria per a l'entorn estadístic R.

Análisis del comportamiento de los resultados en 'full' y 'direct costing'

In this paper we perform a mathematical analyse of profits and losses indirect and full costing. They are compared in different situations, mainlythe utilisation of productive capacity and the existence of beginninginventories. Direct costing was conceived as a system of cost accountingwhich would show profits as a function of sales. In full costing profitsdepend on available combinations of sales, production, costs of beginninginventories, etc., and information displayed in financial statements displayappears incongruent. Differences in profits with full and direct costingincrease when full costing allocates fixed costs according to normalproduction, in some cases differences, and financial statements would showmore incongruent performance. It is concluded about the importance thatprofit and loss statement expresses profits in both costing systems.

Empirics of the international inequality in CO2 emissions intensity: explanatory factors according to complementary decomposition methodologies

This paper analyses the international inequalities in CO2 emissions intensity for the period 1971–2009 and assesses explanatory factors. Multiplicative, group and additive methodologies of inequality decomposition are employed. The first allows us to clarify the separated role of the carbonisation index and the energy intensity in the pattern observed for inequalities in CO2 intensities; the second allows us to understand the role of regional groups; and the third allows us to investigate the role of different fossil energy sources (coal, oil and gas). The results show that, first, the reduction in global emissions intensity has coincided with a significant reduction in international inequality. Second, the bulk of this inequality and its reduction are attributed to differences between the groups of countries considered. Third, coal is the main energy source explaining these inequalities, although the growth in the relative contribution of gas is also remarkable. Fourth, the bulk of inequalities between countries and its decline are explained by differences in energy intensities, although there are significant differences in the patterns demonstrated by different groups of countries. JEL codes: D39; Q43; Q56. Key words: CO2 international distribution, inequality decomposition, CO2 emissions intensity

Life cycle analysis and life cyle impact assessment methodologies: a state of the art

Life cycle analysis (LCA) is a comprehensive method for assessing the environmental impact of a product or an activity over its entire life cycle. The purpose of conducting LCA studies varies from one application to another. Different applications use LCA for different purposes. In general, the main aim of using LCA is to reduce the environmental impact of products through guiding the decision making process towards more sustainable solutions. The most critical phase in an LCA study is the Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) where the life cycle inventory (LCI) results of the considered substances related to the study of a certain system are transformed into understandable impact categories that represent the impact on the environment. In this research work, a general structure clarifying the steps that shall be followed ir order to conduct an LCA study effectively is presented. These steps are based on the ISO 14040 standard framework. In addition, a survey is done on the most widely used LCIA methodologies. Recommendations about possible developments and suggetions for further research work regarding the use of LCA and LCIA methodologies are discussed as well.

Projeccions de canvi climatic per a Catalunya (NE Península Ibèrica). Part II: sintetitzant diverses metodologies = Climate change projections for Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula). Part II: Integrating several methodologies

The publication of the fourth IPCC report, as well as the number of research results reported in recent years about the regionalization of climate projections, were the driving forces to justify the update of the report on climate change in Catalonia. Specifically, the new IPCC report contains new climate projections at global and continental scales, while several international projects (especially European projects PRUDENCE and ENSEMBLES) have produced continental-scale climate projections, which allow for distinguishing between European regions. For Spain, some of these results have been included in a document commissioned by the“State Agency of Meteorology”. In addition, initiatives are being developed within Catalonia (in particular, by the Meteorological Service of Catalonia) to downscale climate projections in this area. The present paper synthesizes results of these and other previously published studies, as well as our own analysis of results of the ENSEMBLES project. The aim is to propose scenarios of variation in temperature and rainfall in Catalonia during the 21st Century. Thus, by the middle of this century temperatures could rise up to 2 C compared with that of the late 20th Century. These increases would probably be higher in summer than in winter, generalized across the territory but less pronounced in coastal areas. Rainfall, however, would not change much, but it could slightly decrease. Towards the end of the 21st Century, temperatures could rise to about 5 C above that of the last century, while the average rainfall could decrease by more than 10%. Increases in temperature would be higher in summer and in areas further from the coast. Rainfall would decrease especially during the summer, while it could even increase in winter in mountainous areas such as the Pyrenees.

Empirics of the international inequality in CO2 emissions intensity: explanatory factors according to complementary decomposition methodologies

This paper analyses the international inequalities in CO2 emissions intensity for the period 1971- 2009 and assesses explanatory factors. Multiplicative, group and additive methodologies of inequality decomposition are employed. The first allows us to clarify the separated role of the carbonisation index and the energy intensity in the pattern observed for inequalities in CO2 intensities; the second allows us to understand the role of regional groups; and the third allows us to investigate the role of different fossil energy sources (coal, oil and gas). The results show that, first, the reduction in global emissions intensity has coincided with a significant reduction in international inequality. Second, the bulk of this inequality and its reduction are attributed to differences between the groups of countries considered. Third, coal is the main energy source explaining these inequalities, although the growth in the relative contribution of gas is also remarkable. Fourth, the bulk of inequalities between countries and its decline are explained by differences in energy intensities, although there are significant differences in the patterns demonstrated by different groups of countries.