Mobile termination, network externalities, and consumer expectations

We re-examine the literature on mobile termination in the presence of network externalities. Externalities arise when firms discriminate between on- and off-net calls or when subscription demand is elastic. This literature predicts that profit decreases and consumer surplus increases in termination charge in a neighborhood of termination cost. This creates a puzzle since in reality we see regulators worldwide pushing termination rates down while being opposed by network operators. We show that this puzzle is resolved when consumers' expectations are assumed passive but required to be fulfilled in equilibrium (as defined by Katz and Shapiro, AER 1985), instead of being rationally responsive to non-equilibrium prices, as assumed until now.

Forecasting tourism demand using consumer expectations

Abstract Purpose- There is a lack of studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non-linear models. The aim of this paper is to introduce consumer expectations in time-series models in order to analyse their usefulness to forecast tourism demand. Design/methodology/approach- The paper focuses on forecasting tourism demand in Catalonia for the four main visitor markets (France, the UK, Germany and Italy) combining qualitative information with quantitative models: autoregressive (AR), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. The forecasting performance of the different models is evaluated for different time horizons (one, two, three, six and 12 months). Findings- Although some differences are found between the results obtained for the different countries, when comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different techniques, ARIMA and Markov switching regime models outperform the rest of the models. In all cases, forecasts of arrivals show lower root mean square errors (RMSE) than forecasts of overnight stays. It is found that models with consumer expectations do not outperform benchmark models. These results are extensive to all time horizons analysed. Research limitations/implications- This study encourages the use of qualitative information and more advanced econometric techniques in order to improve tourism demand forecasting. Originality/value- This is the first study on tourism demand focusing specifically on Catalonia. To date, there have been no studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non-linear models such as self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. This paper fills this gap and analyses forecasting performance at a regional level. Keywords Tourism, Forecasting, Consumers, Spain, Demand management Paper type Research paper

Consumers' behavior and the Bertrand paradox: an ACE approach

We analyze the classical Bertrand model when consumers exhibit some strategic behavior in deciding from which seller they will buy. We use two related but different tools. Both consider a probabilistic learning (or evolutionary) mechanism, and in the two of them consumers' behavior in uences the competition between the sellers. The results obtained show that, in general, developing some sort of loyalty is a good strategy for the buyers as it works in their best interest. First, we consider a learning procedure described by a deterministic dynamic system and, using strong simplifying assumptions, we can produce a description of the process behavior. Second, we use nite automata to represent the strategies played by the agents and an adaptive process based on genetic algorithms to simulate the stochastic process of learning. By doing so we can relax some of the strong assumptions used in the rst approach and still obtain the same basic results. It is suggested that the limitations of the rst approach (analytical) provide a good motivation for the second approach (Agent-Based). Indeed, although both approaches address the same problem, the use of Agent-Based computational techniques allows us to relax hypothesis and overcome the limitations of the analytical approach.

A note on parallelizing the parameterized expectations algorithm

The parameterized expectations algorithm (PEA) involves a long simulation and a nonlinear least squares (NLS) fit, both embedded in a loop. Both steps are natural candidates for parallelization. This note shows that parallelization can lead to important speedups for the PEA. I provide example code for a simple model that can serve as a template for parallelization of more interesting models, as well as a download link for an image of a bootable CD that allows creation of a cluster and execution of the example code in minutes, with no need to install any software.

Subjective income expectations, canonical models and income risk

Expectations are central to behaviour. Despite the existence of subjective expectations data, the standard approach is to ignore these, to hypothecate a model of behaviour and to infer expectations from realisations. In the context of income models, we reveal the informational gain obtained from using both a canonical model and subjective expectations data. We propose a test for this informational gain, and illustrate our approach with an application to the problem of measuring income risk.

Are two-part tariffs efficient when consumers plan ahead?: An empirical study

During the last two decades there has been an increase in using dynamic tariffs for billing household electricity consumption. This has questioned the suitability of traditional pricing schemes, such as two-part tariffs, since they contribute to create marked peak and offpeak demands. The aim of this paper is to assess if two-part tariffs are an efficient pricing scheme using Spanish household electricity microdata. An ordered probit model with instrumental variables on the determinants of power level choice and non-paramentric spline regressions on the electricity price distribution will allow us to distinguish between the tariff structure choice and the simultaneous demand decisions. We conclude that electricity consumption and dwellings’ and individuals’ characteristics are key determinants of the fixed charge paid by Spanish households Finally, the results point to the inefficiency of the two-part tariff as those consumers who consume more electricity pay a lower price than the others.

Consumers’ sensory acceptability of pork from immunocastrated male pigs

Boar taint is the off-odour or off flavour of cooked pork. Currently, the most common method of controlling boar taint is surgical castration. However, immunocastration has been used in some parts of the world as an alternative to surgical castration. The aim of this study was to evaluate the sensory acceptability of meat from immunocastrated pigs (IM) compared with meat from females (FE), surgically castrated (CM) and entire males (EM). Twenty animals of each type were evaluated by 201 consumers in 20 sessions. Longissimus thoracis muscle of the different animals was cooked in an oven at 180 °C for 10 min. Consumers scored the odour and the flavour of the meat in a 9-point category scale without an intermediate level. There were no significant differences in consumer’s evaluation of meat from IM, CM, and FE. In contrast, EM meat presented a higher percentage of dissatisfied scores and was significantly (P & 0.05) less accepted than meat from CM, IM and FE. Consumers’ acceptability of EM meat was always lower, independently of its androstenone levels. However meat with low levels of androstenone was more accepted that meat with medium or high levels of this substance. It can be concluded that immunocastration produced pork that was accepted by the consumers, and was indistinguishable from pork from CM or FE.

Decomposing the Tourist’s Satisfaction Gap: The Role of Expectations and Cognitions

In this paper we present an empirical methodology that allows the tourist’s satisfaction gap between two destinations to be decomposed into two components. One explains the role of differences in observed characteristics of the tourists and the stay (endowments). The other captures the share of the gap due to differences in the utility that tourists derive from those characteristics (cognitive). To illustrate the use of this method, we employ data coming from a sample of tourists visiting two touristic enclaves in Tarragona (Spain). Our results indicate that the cognitive component explains most of the satisfaction gap. Keywords: Satisfaction, expectations, cognition, touristic destination

Open source software expectations in retail businesses of Igualada : an exploratory study

The emergence of open source software in the last years has become a common topic of study in different fields, from the most technical characteristics to the economical aspects. This paper examines the current status about the literature dealing with economics of open source and explores the uses, infrastructure and expectations of retail businesses and institutions of the town of Igualda about it. This qualitative case study finds out that the current equipment and level of uses of ICTs are low and that the current situation of the town stores is receptive to a potential introduction of open source software.

Modelling the Human Values Scale from Consumers Transactional Data Bases

The main objective of this paper aims at developing a methodology that takes into account the human factor extracted from the data base used by the recommender systems, and which allow to resolve the specific problems of prediction and recommendation. In this work, we propose to extract the user's human values scale from the data base of the users, to improve their suitability in open environments, such as the recommender systems. For this purpose, the methodology is applied with the data of the user after interacting with the system. The methodology is exemplified with a case study

Expectativas, actitudes y normas percibidas respecto al uso del preservativo por los jóvenes de Mozambique = Expectations, attitudes and perceived norms regarding condom use in Mozambique young people

Objetivos: Conocer la prevalencia del uso auto informado del preservativo en la última relación sexual, así como algunas actitudes, creencias y percepciones sobre su uso para la prevención de la transmisión del VIH por vía heterosexual, en jóvenes de las ciudades de Nampula, Bemba y Lichinga, en Mozambique. Diseño: Estudio transversal de encuesta. Participantes: Seiscientos treinta y dos estudiantes de secundaria (56,8% varones), con edades comprendidas entre 15 y 24 años, seleccionados mediante un muestreo aleatorio estratificado proporcional. El porcentaje de participación es del 79%. Mediciones principales: Mediante un cuestionario, se evalúan en una escala de 0 a 10 las actitudes hacia el uso del preservativo, expectativas de resultados y de autoeficacia y aceptación percibida sobre su utilización. Asimismo se evalúa el uso auto informado del preservativo en la última relación sexual. Resultados: Sólo un 47,4% (IC 0,95 = 42,0:52,8) de los jóvenes sexualmente activos utilizó el preservativo en la última relación sexual. En general las mujeres tienen una actitud más favorable respecto a su uso y creen más en su eficacia que los hombres, pero lo utilizan menos y se sienten poco capaces de pedir su uso al varón, principalmente si se trata de su actual pareja. La autoeficacia percibida para utilizar o pedir el uso del preservativo aumenta en el caso de una pareja ocasional tanto en hombres como en mujeres. Conclusiones: Se requieren acciones institucionales y sociales que promocionen el uso del preservativo entre los jóvenes de Mozambique. Los programas preventivos deberían insistir en el cambio de actitudes y creencias, y enfatizar los beneficios que se derivan de su uso adecuado y sistemático desde la primera relación coital

Parameterized expectations approach; Some practical issues

We discuss some practical issues related to the use of the Parameterized Expectations Approach (PEA) for solving non-linear stochastic dynamic models with rational expectations. This approach has been applied in models of macroeconomics, financial economics, economic growth, contracttheory, etc. It turns out to be a convenient algorithm, especially when there is a large number of state variables and stochastic shocks in the conditional expectations. We discuss some practical issues having to do with the application of the algorithm, and we discuss a Fortran program for implementing the algorithm that is available through the internet.We discuss these issues in a battery of six examples.

Speculation, risk premia and expectations in the yield curve

An affine asset pricing model in which traders have rational but heterogeneous expectations aboutfuture asset prices is developed. We use the framework to analyze the term structure of interestrates and to perform a novel three-way decomposition of bond yields into (i) average expectationsabout short rates (ii) common risk premia and (iii) a speculative component due to heterogeneousexpectations about the resale value of a bond. The speculative term is orthogonal to public informationin real time and therefore statistically distinct from common risk premia. Empirically wefind that the speculative component is quantitatively important accounting for up to a percentagepoint of yields, even in the low yield environment of the last decade. Furthermore, allowing for aspeculative component in bond yields results in estimates of historical risk premia that are morevolatile than suggested by standard Affine Gaussian term structure models which our frameworknests.