Territorial autonomy and self-determination conflicts: opportunity and willingness cases from Bolivia, Niger, and Thailand

The paradox of autonomy is about whether self-rule accommodates or exacerbates armed conflict. This study attempts to unpack the puzzle examining the effectiveness of territorial autonomy as a state response to self-determination conflicts throughout the world. It challenges the conflict-inducing features of autonomy arguing that territorial autonomy can mitigate armed conflict by channeling group grievances into peaceful forms of protest. Thus, this study aims at arriving at a comprehensive theory that identifies which factors are responsible for violent escalation of conflicts grounded in self-determination demands. By using the concepts of opportunity structures and willingness dimension, this study shows that conflict escalation only takes place when minorities with greater bargaining power vis-à-vis the center, in contexts of high levels of economic inequality within dyad, are mobilized around autonomy and separatist demands.

Autonomia territorial i conflictes d'autodeterminació: oportunitats i voluntat casos de Bolívia, Níger i Tailàndia

La paradoxa de l’autonomia tracta sobre si l’autogovern atenua o exacerba el conflicte armat. Aquest estudi prova de desmuntar aquest trencaclosques examinant l’efectivitat de l’autonomia territorial com a resposta estatal als conflictes d’autodeterminació de tot el món. També posa en dubte que l’autonomia sigui un factor instigador del conflicte argumentant que l’autonomia territorial pot mitigar el conflicte armat canalitzant els greuges grupals cap a formes de protesta pacífiques. D’aquesta manera, l’estudi vol arribar a una teoria integral que identifiqui els factors responsables de l’escalada de violència en els conflictes sorgits de reivindicacions d’autodeterminació. Fent servir els conceptes d’”estructures d’oportunitat” i “dimensió de voluntat”, aquest estudi mostra que l’escalada dels conflictes només es produeix quan es mobilitzen minories amb un alt poder negociador respecte del centre, en contexts de grans nivells de desigualtat econòmica al si de la díada, al voltant de reivindicacions d’autonomia i separatistes.

La caverna de Josep Palau i Fabre (1952-1969): teatre versus al·legoria filosòfica per a representar i impedir el final tràgic i fosc del lluminós art de pensar.

What is the use of performing the myth of the cave from book VII of the Republic by Plato? Josep Palau i Fabre, considers that, in Plato's dialogues, the speakers are mere instruments at the service of his dialectical goal. The aim of this article is to show how, by turning the myth into a tragedy and also by relying on Heraclitus's conflict or war of opposites, the playwright succeeds in favoring a sort of thought which is not one-sided or univocal. On the contrary, in Palau i Fabre's La Caverna, the tragic hero, that is, the released prisoner transformed by the light of Reality and finally killed by his "cavemates" -after having been imprisoned again and having tried to rescue them from their ignorance or shadows-, still leaves to them his powerful experience of the agonistikos thought, which might bear fruit in their life to come.

La caverna de Josep Palau i Fabre (1952-1969): teatro versus alegoría filosófica para representar e impedir el final trágico y sombrío del luminoso arte de pensar.

What is the use of performing the myth of the cave from book VII of the Republic by Plato? Josep Palau i Fabre, considers that, in Plato's dialogues, the speakers are mere instruments at the service of his dialectical goal. The aim of this article is to show how, by turning the myth into a tragedy and also by relying on Heraclitus's conflict or war of opposites, the playwright succeeds in favoring a sort of thought which is not one-sided or univocal. On the contrary, in Palau i Fabre's La Caverna, the tragic hero, that is, the released prisoner transformed by the light of Reality and finally killed by his "cavemates" -after having been imprisoned again and having tried to rescue them from their ignorance or shadows-, still leaves to them his powerful experience of the agonistikos thought, which might bear fruit in their life to come.

The cave (La caverna -1952-1969) by Josep Palau i Fabre: theatre versus philosophical allegory in order both to perform and stop the tragic and dark end of the bright art of thinking

What is the use of representing in performance the image of the cave from book VII of Plato’s Republic? Josep Palau i Fabre considers that in Plato’s dialogues the speakers are mere instruments at the service of his dialectical purpose. The aim of this article is to show how, by turning the myth into a tragedy and relying on Heraclitus’s conflict or war of opposites, the playwright succeeds in favouring a sort of thought which is not one-sided or univocal. On the contrary, in Palau i Fabre’s La Caverna, the tragic hero, the released prisoner transformed by the light of Reality and finally killed by his “cavemates” –after having been imprisoned again and having tried to rescue them from their ignorance or shadows– still leaves them his powerful experience of the agonistikós thought, which might bear fruit in their life to come.

Violence and displacement. Evidence from the Spanish civil war (1936-1939)

This paper explores the relationship between violence and displacement during civil war focusing on two different forms of population movements (i.e. incoming and outgoing), and two different forms of violence (i.e. direct and indirect). The paper explores the relationship between displacement and violence at the local level in the context of a civil war fought conventionally using fine-grained data from 1,062 municipalities of the region of Catalonia during the Spanish Civil War (1936-1939). First, the paper suggests that exogenous and endogenous to the war factors combine to generate patterns of resettlement. Second, the evidence indicates that, in acivil war context, refugee flows and violence are interrelated in multiple ways: the arrival of internal refugees in a locality promotes the perpetration of direct violence against civilians; this, in turn, triggers the departure of people from the locality when the other group approaches. Third, indirect violence (i.e. bombings) shows to be the most significant factor accounting for external displacement at the local level, suggesting that bombing can serve as a strong signal for civilians of the type of armed group they are facing. Finally, the Spanish case suggests that the demographic changes provoked by displacement, combined with the lethality of the conflict, are likely to have long-term political consequences.

Civil war and foreign influence

We study a symmetric information bargaining model of civil war where a third (foreign) party can affect the probabilities of winning the conflict and the size of the post conflict spoils. We show that the possible alliance with a third party makes peaceful agreements difficult to reach and might lead to new commitment problems that trigger war. Also, we argue that the foreign party is likely to induce persistent informational asymmetries which might explain long lasting civil wars. We explore both political and economic incentives for a third party to intervene. The explicit consideration of political incentives leads to two predictions that allow for identifying the influence of foreign intervention on civil war incidence. Both predictions are confirmed for the case of the U.S. as a potential intervening nation: (i) civil wars around the world are more likely under Republican governments and (ii) the probability of civil wars decreases with U.S. presidential approval rates.

Conflict prevention and decentralized governance: some remarks about the state of the art in theory and practice

Is there a link between decentralized governance and conflict prevention? This article tries to answer the question by presenting the state of the art of the intersection of both concepts. Provided that social conflict is inevitable and given the appearance of new threats and types of violence, as well as new demands for security based on people (human security), our societies should focus on promoting peaceful changes. Through an extensive analysis of the existing literature and the study of several cases, this paper suggests that decentralized governance can contribute to these efforts by transforming conflicts, bringing about power-sharing and inclusion incentives of minority groups. Albeit the complexity of assessing its impact on conflict prevention, it can be contended that decentralized governance might have very positive effects on the reduction of causes that bring about conflicts due to its ability to foster the creation of war/violence preventors. More specifically, this paper argues that decentralization can have a positive impact on the so-called triggers and accelerators (short- and medium-term causes).

Conflict, Peace and Security in Africa: an Assessment and New Questions After 50 Years of African Independence

Since the independence processes in the African continent, armed conflicts, peace and security have raised concern and attention both at the domestic level and at the international scale. In recent years, all aspects have undergone significant changes which have given rise to intense debate. The end of some historical conflicts has taken place in a context of slight decrease in the number of armed conflicts and the consolidation of post-conflict reconstruction processes. Moreover, African regional organizations have staged an increasingly more active internal shift in matters related to peace and security, encouraged by the idea of promoting “African solutions to African problems”. This new scenario, has been accompanied by new uncertainties at the security level and major challenges at the operational level, especially for the African Union. This article aims to ascertain the state of affairs on all these issues and raise some key questions to consider.

Companies in Conflict Situations: Advancing the Research Agenda. Seminar proceedings. Barcelona, october 2011

Seminar proceedings about the Seminar “Companies in Confict Situations”, organized by ICIP, with the aim of reflecting on the causes, the dynamics and the consequences of the participation of companies in armed conflicts. Over thirty international experts will be participating in the conferences to analyze the role and responsibilities of companies in connection with the international arms market (especially regarding small arms, light weapons and conventional weapons), the provision of military and security services, and the exploitation of, and trade in, natural resources.

Civil conflict and human capital accumulation: The long-term effects of political violence in Perú

This paper provides empirical evidence of the persistent effect of exposure to political violence on humancapital accumulation. I exploit the variation in conflict location and birth cohorts to identify the longandshort-term effects of the civil war on educational attainment. Conditional on being exposed toviolence, the average person accumulates 0.31 less years of education as an adult. In the short-term,the effects are stronger than in the long-run; these results hold when comparing children within thesame household. Further, exposure to violence during early childhood leads to permanent losses. I alsoexplore the potential causal mechanisms.

State capacity and military conflict

In 1500, Europe was composed of hundreds of statelets and principalities, with weak central authority,no monopoly over the legitimate use of violence, and overlapping jurisdictions. By 1800, only ahandful of powerful, centralized nation states remained. We build a model that explains both the emergenceof capable states and growing divergence between European powers. We argue that the impactof war was crucial for state building, and depended on: i) the financial cost of war, and ii) a country sinitial level of domestic political fragmentation. We emphasize the role of the "Military Revolution",which raised the cost of war. Initially, this caused more cohesive states to invest in state capacity, whilemore divided states rationally dropped out of the competition, causing divergence between Europeanstates. As the cost of war escalated further, all states engaged in a "race to the top" towards greater statebuilding.

The aftermath of Civil War

Using an event-study methodology, this paper analyzes the aftermath of civil war in a cross-section of countries. It focuses on those experiences where the end of conflict marks the beginning of a relatively lasting peace. The paper considers 41 countries involved in internal wars in the period 1960-2003. In order to provide a comprehensive evaluation of the aftermath of war, the paper considers a host of social areas represented by basic indicators of economic performance, health and education, political development, demographic trends, and conflict and security issues. For each of these indicators, the paper first compares the post- and pre-war situations and then examines their dynamic trends during the post-conflict period. It conducts this analysis both in absolute and relative terms, the latter in relation to control groups of otherwise similar countries. The paper concludes that, even though war has devastating effects and its aftermath can be immensely difficult, when the end of war marks the beginning of lasting peace, recovery and improvement are indeed achieved.

The colonial origins of Civil War

The dominant hypothesis in the literature that studies conflict is that poverty is the main cause of civil wars. We instead analyze the effect of institutions on civil war, controlling for income per capita. In our set up, institutions are endogenous and colonial origins affect civil wars through their legacy on institutions. Our results indicate that institutions, proxied by the protection of property rights, rule of law and the efficiency of the legal system, are a fundamental cause of civil war. In particular, an improvement in institutions from the median value in the sample to the 75th percentile is associated with a 38 percentage points reduction in the incidence of civil wars. Moreover, once institutions are included as explaining civil wars, income does not have any effect on civil war, either directly or indirectly.

Reprisals remembered: German-Greek conflict and car sales during the Euro crisis

During the Greek debt crisis after 2010, the German government insisted on harshausterity measures. This led to a rapid cooling of relations between the Greekand German governments. We compile a new index of public acrimony betweenGermany and Greece based on newspaper reports and internet search terms. Thisinformation is combined with historical maps on German war crimes during theoccupation between 1941 and 1944. During months of open conflict between Germanand Greek politicians, German car sales fell markedly more than those of cars fromother countries. This was especially true in areas affected by German reprisals duringWorldWar II: areas where German troops committed massacres and destroyed entirevillages curtailed their purchases of German cars to a greater extent during conflictmonths than other parts of Greece. We conclude that cultural aversion was a keydeterminant of purchasing behavior, and that memories of past conflict can affecteconomic choices in a time-varying fashion. These findings are compatible withbehavioral models emphasizing the importance of salience for individual decision-making.