Stationarity analysis of historical flood series in France and Spain (14th-20th centuries)

Interdisciplinary frameworks for studying natural hazards and their temporal trends have an important potential in data generation for risk assessment, land use planning, and therefore the sustainable management of resources. This paper focuses on the adjustments required because of the wide variety of scientific fields involved in the reconstruction and characterisation of flood events for the past 1000 years. The aim of this paper is to describe various methodological aspects of the study of flood events in their historical dimension, including the critical evaluation of old documentary and instrumental sources, flood-event classification and hydraulic modelling, and homogeneity and quality control tests. Standardized criteria for flood classification have been defined and applied to the Isère and Drac floods in France, from 1600 to 1950, and to the Ter, the Llobregat and the Segre floods, in Spain, from 1300 to 1980. The analysis on the Drac and Isère data series from 1600 to the present day showed that extraordinary and catastrophic floods were not distributed uniformly in time. However, the largest floods (general catastrophic floods) were homogeneously distributed in time within the period 1600¿1900. No major flood occurred during the 20th century in these rivers. From 1300 to the present day, no homogeneous behaviour was observed for extraordinary floods in the Spanish rivers. The largest floods were uniformly distributed in time within the period 1300-1900, for the Segre and Ter rivers.

Partial disjoint path for multi-layer protection in GMPLS networks

In this paper, different recovery methods applied at different network layers and time scales are used in order to enhance the network reliability. Each layer deploys its own fault management methods. However, current recovery methods are applied to only a specific layer. New protection schemes, based on the proposed partial disjoint path algorithm, are defined in order to avoid protection duplications in a multi-layer scenario. The new protection schemes also encompass shared segment backup computation and shared risk link group identification. A complete set of experiments proves the efficiency of the proposed methods in relation with previous ones, in terms of resources used to protect the network, the failure recovery time and the request rejection ratio

Improved earthquake response via simulation and integrated space- and ground-based technologies: the TREMOR proposal

Earthquakes occurring around the world each year cause thousands ofdeaths, millions of dollars in damage to infrastructure, and incalculablehuman suffering. In recent years, satellite technology has been asignificant boon to response efforts following an earthquake and itsafter-effects by providing mobile communications between response teamsand remote sensing of damaged areas to disaster management organizations.In 2007, an international team of students and professionals assembledduring theInternational Space University’s Summer Session Program in Beijing, Chinato examine how satellite and ground-based technology could be betterintegrated to provide an optimised response in the event of an earthquake.The resulting Technology Resources for Earthquake MOnitoring and Response(TREMOR) proposal describes an integrative prototype response system thatwill implement mobile satellite communication hubs providing telephone anddata links between response teams, onsite telemedicine consultation foremergency first-responders, and satellite navigation systems that willlocate and track emergency vehicles and guide search-and-rescue crews. Aprototype earthquake simulation system is also proposed, integratinghistorical data, earthquake precursor data, and local geomatics andinfrastructure information to predict the damage that could occur in theevent of an earthquake. The backbone of these proposals is a comprehensiveeducation and training program to help individuals, communities andgovernments prepare in advance. The TREMOR team recommends thecoordination of these efforts through a centralised, non-governmentalorganization.

Socio-economic benefits of using space technologies to monitor and respond to earthquakes

Earthquakes represent a major hazard for populations around the world, causing frequent loss of life,human suffering and enormous damage to homes, other buildings and infrastructure. The Technology Resources forEarthquake Monitoring and Response (TREMOR) Team of 36 space professionals analysed this problem over thecourse of the International Space University Summer Session Program and published their recommendations in the formof a report. The TREMOR Team proposes a series of space- and ground-based systems to provide improved capabilityto manage earthquakes. The first proposed system is a prototype earthquake early-warning system that improves theexisting knowledge of earthquake precursors and addresses the potential of these phenomena. Thus, the system willat first enable the definitive assessment of whether reliable earthquake early warning is possible through precursormonitoring. Should the answer be affirmative, the system itself would then form the basis of an operational earlywarningsystem. To achieve these goals, the authors propose a multi-variable approach in which the system will combine,integrate and process precursor data from space- and ground-based seismic monitoring systems (already existing andnew proposed systems) and data from a variety of related sources (e.g. historical databases, space weather data, faultmaps). The second proposed system, the prototype earthquake simulation and response system, coordinates the maincomponents of the response phase to reduce the time delays of response operations, increase the level of precisionin the data collected, facilitate communication amongst teams, enhance rescue and aid capabilities and so forth. It isbased in part on an earthquake simulator that will provide pre-event (if early warning is proven feasible) and post-eventdamage assessment and detailed data of the affected areas to corresponding disaster management actors by means of ageographic information system (GIS) interface. This is coupled with proposed mobile satellite communication hubs toprovide links between response teams. Business- and policy-based implementation strategies for these proposals, suchas the establishment of a non-governmental organisation to develop and operate the systems, are included.

A reflection about the social and technological aspects in flood risk management - the case of the Italian Civil Protection

The right of a person to be protected from natural hazards is a characteristic of the social and economical development of the society. This paper is a contribution to the reflection about the role of Civil Protection organizations in a modern society. The paper is based in the inaugural conference made by the authors on the 9th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Storms. Two major issues are considered. The first one is sociological; the Civil Protection organizations and the responsible administration of the land use planning should be perceived as reliable as possible, in order to get consensus on the restrictions they pose, temporary or definitely, on the individual free use of the territory as well as in the entire warning system. The second one is technological: in order to be reliable they have to issue timely alert and warning to the population at large, but such alarms should be as "true" as possible. With this aim, the paper summarizes the historical evolution of the risk assessment, starting from the original concept of "hazard", introducing the concepts of "scenario of event" and "scenario of risk" and ending with a discussion about the uncertainties and limits of the most advanced and efficient tools to predict, to forecast and to observe the ground effects affecting people and their properties. The discussion is centred in the case of heavy rains and flood events in the North-West of Mediterranean Region.

Emergency Management in the United States of America

Core capabilities are under the above mission areas as outlined in the National Preparedness Goal. Planning, Public Information and Warning, and Operational Coordination cut across all five mission areas. Without these three cross-cutting capabilities, the other capabilities might not be achieved or could be weakened. Other core capabilities are aligned under a specific mission area, based on where it had the most relevance. Core capabilities alignment: Prevention capabilities focus on things related to preventing an imminent terrorist attack; by imminent, we mean an attack that is about to happen ; Protection capabilities focus on security— making sure things, systems, and people are protected ; Mitigation capabilities focus on risk, resilience and building a culture of preparedness; Response capabilities focus on meeting a community’s immediate needs when disaster strikes and finally, recovery capabilities focus on getting communities back on their feet.

Suboptimal Management of Coronary Risk in Daily Clinical Practice: Results from a Mediterranean Cohort of HIV-Infected Patients With Myocardial Infarction

Background: The incidence of cardiovascular events in HIV patients has fallen. Methods: We identified 81 patients with a history of coronary events from 2 hospitals in Spain to evaluate management of CVRF before and after the event. Results: The prevalence of coronary events was 2.15%. At the time of the coronary event, CVRF were highly prevalent. Decrease in total cholesterol (P=0.025) and LDLc(P=0.004) was observed. LDLc and HDLc were determined and the percentage of patients with LDLc &100 mg/dL remained stable at the last visit. Conclusions: The prevalence of coronary disease in our cohort was low. Although CVRF were highly.

Safety in vicinity of industrials plants: risk assessment and land use planning

The aim of this book is to survey on different Land Use Planning and safety approaches in vicinity of industrial plants. As this research is associated with three broad fields of Land Use Planning, safety and security, the set principle is to avoid unnecessary and over detailed information, but including the useful ones to provide a comprehensive resource which can be applicable for several purposes. Besides, the proposed method, which is explained in Chapter 7, can initiate a new field for future of Land Use Planning in vicinity of industrial plants.

Risk management under a two-factor model of the term structure of interest rates

This paper presents several applications to interest rate risk managementbased on a two-factor continuous-time model of the term structure of interestrates previously presented in Moreno (1996). This model assumes that defaultfree discount bond prices are determined by the time to maturity and twofactors, the long-term interest rate and the spread (difference between thelong-term rate and the short-term (instantaneous) riskless rate). Several newmeasures of ``generalized duration" are presented and applied in differentsituations in order to manage market risk and yield curve risk. By means ofthese measures, we are able to compute the hedging ratios that allows us toimmunize a bond portfolio by means of options on bonds. Focusing on thehedging problem, it is shown that these new measures allow us to immunize abond portfolio against changes (parallel and/or in the slope) in the yieldcurve. Finally, a proposal of solution of the limitations of conventionalduration by means of these new measures is presented and illustratednumerically.

A finite-population revenue management model and a risk-ratio procedure for the joint estimation of population size and parameters

Many dynamic revenue management models divide the sale period into a finite number of periods T and assume, invoking a fine-enough grid of time, that each period sees at most one booking request. These Poisson-type assumptions restrict the variability of the demand in the model, but researchers and practitioners were willing to overlook this for the benefit of tractability of the models. In this paper, we criticize this model from another angle. Estimating the discrete finite-period model poses problems of indeterminacy and non-robustness: Arbitrarily fixing T leads to arbitrary control values and on the other hand estimating T from data adds an additional layer of indeterminacy. To counter this, we first propose an alternate finite-population model that avoids this problem of fixing T and allows a wider range of demand distributions, while retaining the useful marginal-value properties of the finite-period model. The finite-population model still requires jointly estimating market size and the parameters of the customer purchase model without observing no-purchases. Estimation of market-size when no-purchases are unobservable has rarely been attempted in the marketing or revenue management literature. Indeed, we point out that it is akin to the classical statistical problem of estimating the parameters of a binomial distribution with unknown population size and success probability, and hence likely to be challenging. However, when the purchase probabilities are given by a functional form such as a multinomial-logit model, we propose an estimation heuristic that exploits the specification of the functional form, the variety of the offer sets in a typical RM setting, and qualitative knowledge of arrival rates. Finally we perform simulations to show that the estimator is very promising in obtaining unbiased estimates of population size and the model parameters.

Legal issues in promoting FOSS in R+D projects - Policy, Organisation and Management

Creating and using FLOSS in R+D projects raises several legal issues, which need to be managed as soon as possible - preferably during the project planning stage. Challenges in the areas of project structure and policy, licenses and licensing, exploitation strategies, community management, and FLOSS-friendliness in general all have their legal aspects, which are commented here. Some recommendations are made for assisting in the use of FLOSS in R+D projects, especially in multiple party consortiums.

Prevalence of Ischemic Heart Disease and Management of Coronary Risk in Daily Clinical Practice: Results from a Mediterranean Cohort of HIV-Infected Patients

There are conflicting data on the prevalence of coronary events and the quality of the management of modifiable cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) inHIV-infected patients. Methods.We performed a retrospective descriptive study to determine the prevalence of coronary events and to evaluate the management of CVRF in a Mediterranean cohort of 3760 HIV-1-infected patients from April 1983 through June 2011. Results.We identified 81 patients with a history of a coronary event (prevalence 2.15%); 83% of them suffered an acute myocardial infarction. At the time of the coronary event, CVRF were highly prevalent (60.5% hypertension, 48% dyslipidemia, and 16% diabetes mellitus).OtherCVRF, such as smoking, hypertension, lack of exercise, and body mass index, were not routinely assessed. After the coronary event, a significant decrease in total cholesterol ( � = 0.025) and LDLcholesterol ( � = 0.004) was observed. However, the percentage of patients whomaintained LDL-cholesterol > 100mg/dL remained stable (from 46% to 41%, � = 0.103). Patients using protease inhibitors associated with a favorable lipid profile increased over time ( � = 0.028). Conclusions.The prevalence of coronary events in our cohort is low. CVRF prevalence is high and theirmanagement is far from optimal. More aggressive interventions should be implemented to diminish cardiovascular risk in HIV-infected patients.

Risk Management or Uncertainty Governance? The Challenge of an Interdiscplinary Approach

Peer-reviewed

Improving interMediAte Risk management. MARK study

Background: Cardiovascular risk functions fail to identify more than 50% of patients who develop cardiovascular disease. This is especially evident in the intermediate-risk patients in which clinical management becomes difficult. Our purpose is to analyze if ankle-brachial index (ABI), measures of arterial stiffness, postprandial glucose, glycosylated hemoglobin, self-measured blood pressure and presence of comorbidity are independently associated to incidence of vascular events and whether they can improve the predictive capacity of current risk equations in the intermediate-risk population. Methods/Design: This project involves 3 groups belonging to REDIAPP (RETICS RD06/0018) from 3 Spanish regions. We will recruit a multicenter cohort of 2688 patients at intermediate risk (coronary risk between 5 and 15% or vascular death risk between 3-5% over 10 years) and no history of atherosclerotic disease, selected at random. We will record socio-demographic data, information on diet, physical activity, comorbidity and intermittent claudication. We will measure ABI, pulse wave velocity and cardio ankle vascular index at rest and after a light intensity exercise. Blood pressure and anthropometric data will be also recorded. We will also quantify lipids, glucose and glycosylated hemoglobin in a fasting blood sample and postprandial capillary glucose. Eighteen months after the recruitment, patients will be followed up to determine the incidence of vascular events (later follow-ups are planned at 5 and 10 years). We will analyze whether the new proposed risk factors contribute to improve the risk functions based on classic risk factors. Discussion: Primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases is a priority in public health policy of developed and developing countries. The fundamental strategy consists in identifying people in a high risk situation in which preventive measures are effective and efficient. Improvement of these predictions in our country will have an immediate, clinical and welfare impact and a short term public health effect