Limitations and biases of conventional analysis of climate change. Towards an analysis coherent with sustainable development

This paper shows the numerous problems of conventional economic analysis in the evaluation of climate change mitigation policies. The article points out the many limitations, omissions, and the arbitrariness that have characterized most evaluation models applied up until now. These shortcomings, in an almost overwhelming way, have biased the result towards the recommendation of a lower aggressiveness of emission mitigation policies. Consequently, this paper questions whether these results provide an appropriate answer to the problem. Finally, various points that an analysis coherent with sustainable development should take into account are presented.

Coherent forecasting of multiple-decrement life tables: a test using Japanese cause of death data

Planners in public and private institutions would like coherent forecasts of the components of age-specic mortality, such as causes of death. This has been di cult toachieve because the relative values of the forecast components often fail to behave ina way that is coherent with historical experience. In addition, when the group forecasts are combined the result is often incompatible with an all-groups forecast. It hasbeen shown that cause-specic mortality forecasts are pessimistic when compared withall-cause forecasts (Wilmoth, 1995). This paper abandons the conventional approachof using log mortality rates and forecasts the density of deaths in the life table. Sincethese values obey a unit sum constraint for both conventional single-decrement life tables (only one absorbing state) and multiple-decrement tables (more than one absorbingstate), they are intrinsically relative rather than absolute values across decrements aswell as ages. Using the methods of Compositional Data Analysis pioneered by Aitchison(1986), death densities are transformed into the real space so that the full range of multivariate statistics can be applied, then back-transformed to positive values so that theunit sum constraint is honoured. The structure of the best-known, single-decrementmortality-rate forecasting model, devised by Lee and Carter (1992), is expressed incompositional form and the results from the two models are compared. The compositional model is extended to a multiple-decrement form and used to forecast mortalityby cause of death for Japan

Convex linear combination processes for compositions

Aitchison and Bacon-Shone (1999) considered convex linear combinations ofcompositions. In other words, they investigated compositions of compositions, wherethe mixing composition follows a logistic Normal distribution (or a perturbationprocess) and the compositions being mixed follow a logistic Normal distribution. Inthis paper, I investigate the extension to situations where the mixing compositionvaries with a number of dimensions. Examples would be where the mixingproportions vary with time or distance or a combination of the two. Practicalsituations include a river where the mixing proportions vary along the river, or acrossa lake and possibly with a time trend. This is illustrated with a dataset similar to thatused in the Aitchison and Bacon-Shone paper, which looked at how pollution in aloch depended on the pollution in the three rivers that feed the loch. Here, I explicitlymodel the variation in the linear combination across the loch, assuming that the meanof the logistic Normal distribution depends on the river flows and relative distancefrom the source origins

Coherent Stranski-Krastanov growth in 1+1 dimensions with anharmonic interactions: An equilibrium study

The formation of coherently strained three-dimensional (3D) islands on top of the wetting layer in the Stranski-Krastanov mode of growth is considered in a model in 1 + 1 dimensions accounting for the anharmonicity and nonconvexity of the real interatomic forces. It is shown that coherent 3D islands can be expected to form in compressed rather than expanded overlayers beyond a critical lattice misfit. In expanded overlayers the classical Stranski-Krastanov growth is expected to occur because the misfit dislocations can become energetically favored at smaller island sizes. The thermodynamic reason for coherent 3D islanding is incomplete wetting owing to the weaker adhesion of the edge atoms. Monolayer height islands with a critical size appear as necessary precursors of the 3D islands. This explains the experimentally observed narrow size distribution of the 3D islands. The 2D-3D transformation takes place by consecutive rearrangements of mono- to bilayer, bi- to trilayer islands, etc., after the corresponding critical sizes have been exceeded. The rearrangements are initiated by nucleation events, each one needing to overcome a lower energetic barrier than the one before. The model is in good qualitative agreement with available experimental observations.

Coherent stochastic resonance

We consider Brownian motion on a line terminated by two trapping points. A bias term in the form of a telegraph signal is applied to this system. It is shown that the first two moments of survival time exhibit a minimum at the same resonant frequency.

To select or to weigh: a comparative study of linear combination schemes for superparent-one-dependence estimators

We conduct a large-scale comparative study on linearly combining superparent-one-dependence estimators (SPODEs), a popular family of seminaive Bayesian classifiers. Altogether, 16 model selection and weighing schemes, 58 benchmark data sets, and various statistical tests are employed. This paper's main contributions are threefold. First, it formally presents each scheme's definition, rationale, and time complexity and hence can serve as a comprehensive reference for researchers interested in ensemble learning. Second, it offers bias-variance analysis for each scheme's classification error performance. Third, it identifies effective schemes that meet various needs in practice. This leads to accurate and fast classification algorithms which have an immediate and significant impact on real-world applications. Another important feature of our study is using a variety of statistical tests to evaluate multiple learning methods across multiple data sets.

Coherent tunnelling in Cu2+- and Ag2+-doped MgO and CaO: Cu2+ explored through ab initio calculations

The observation of coherent tunnelling in Cu2+ - and Ag2+ -doped MgO and CaO:Cu2+ was a crucial discovery in the realm of the Jahn-Teller (JT) effect. The main reasons favoring this dynamic behavior are now clarified through ab initio calculations on Cu2+ - and Ag2+ -doped cubic oxides. Small JT distortions and an unexpected low anharmonicity of the eg JT mode are behind energy barriers smaller than 25 cm-1 derived through CASPT2 calculations for Cu2+ - and Ag2+ -doped MgO and CaO:Cu2+ . The low anharmonicity is shown to come from a strong vibrational coupling of MO610- units (M=Cu,Ag) to the host lattice. The average distance between the d9 impurity and ligands is found to vary significantly on passing from MgO to SrO following to a good extent the lattice parameter.

System identification using a linear combination of cumulant slices

In this paper we develop a new linear approach to identify the parameters of a moving average (MA) model from the statistics of the output. First, we show that, under some constraints, the impulse response of the system can be expressed as a linear combination of cumulant slices. Then, thisresult is used to obtain a new well-conditioned linear methodto estimate the MA parameters of a non-Gaussian process. Theproposed method presents several important differences withexisting linear approaches. The linear combination of slices usedto compute the MA parameters can be constructed from dif-ferent sets of cumulants of different orders, providing a generalframework where all the statistics can be combined. Further-more, it is not necessary to use second-order statistics (the autocorrelation slice), and therefore the proposed algorithm stillprovides consistent estimates in the presence of colored Gaussian noise. Another advantage of the method is that while mostlinear methods developed so far give totally erroneous estimates if the order is overestimated, the proposed approach doesnot require a previous estimation of the filter order. The simulation results confirm the good numerical conditioning of thealgorithm and the improvement in performance with respect to existing methods.

Arqueología de paisajes altimontanos pirenaicos: formas de explotación y usos del medio en época romana en valle del Madriu-Perafita-Claror (Andorra) y en la Sierra del Cadí (Alt Urgell)

long-term cultural history of the Madriu-Perafita-Claror valleys (Andorra) and the Cadí Range (Catalonia) has been investigated thanks to the combination of archaeological surveys and excavation, analysis of written sources, multiproxy alaeoenvironment analysis (pollen, NPP, micro and macro charcoal, sedimentology and geochemistry), and digital technologies such as stereophotogrammetry, multispectral imaging, DGPS and GIS. The project has been designed from a landscape archaeology approach and the study area has been selected due to the suitable setting it provides for a meaningful application of the aforementioned techniques. Consequently, archaeological, historical and palaeoenvironmental data have been all treated as cultural proxies. Their comparison has allowed obtaining not only coherent but also complementary results. The project outcomes show an uninterrupted occupation of these high mountain valleys (2000-2600 m a.s.l.) from the Mesolithic until the present. This human occupation shows strong spatial and chronological variability in human practices ranging from a stable long term group occupation in the Late Neolithic to the diversification of representative practices during the Roman period (metallurgy, pine resin exploitation, charcoal production, pastoralism, etc.). This high diversity of activities leads to complex cultural landscapes in the high Pyrenean areas. The reconstruction of the cultural history at the study areas will allow the development of more sustainable politics for these landscapes management.

Experimental study of clinafloxacin alone and in combination in the treatment of ciprofloxacin-susceptible and -resistant pneumococcal meningitis

The increasing incidence of ciprofloxacin resistance in Streptococcus pneumoniae may limit the efficacy of the new quinolones in difficult-to-treat infections such as meningitis. The aim of the present study was to determine the efficacy of clinafloxacin alone and in combination with teicoplanin and rifampin in the therapy of ciprofloxacin-susceptible and ciprofloxacin-resistant pneumococcal meningitis in rabbits. When used against a penicillin-resistant ciprofloxacin-susceptible strain (Clinafloxacin MIC 0.12 μg/ml), clinafloxacin at a dose of 20 mg/kg per day b.i.d. decreased bacterial concentration by -5.10 log cfu/ml at 24 hr. Combinations did not improve activity. The same clinafloxacin schedule against a penicillin- and ciprofloxacin-resistant strain (Clinafloxacin MIC 0.5 μg/ml) was totally ineffective. Our data suggest that a moderate decrease in quinolone susceptibility, as indicated by the detection of any degree of ciprofloxacin resistance, may render these antibiotics unsuitable for the management of pneumococcal meningitis

Combination of diffusion tensor and functional magnetic resonance imaging during recovery from the vegetative state

Background: The rate of recovery from the vegetative state (VS) is low. Currently, little is known of the mechanisms and cerebral changes that accompany those relatively rare cases of good recovery. Here, we combined functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) to study the evolution of one VS patient at one month post-ictus and again twelve months later when he had recovered consciousness. Methods fMRI was used to investigate cortical responses to passive language stimulation as well as task-induced deactivations related to the default-mode network. DTI was used to assess the integrity of the global white matter and the arcuate fasciculus. We also performed a neuropsychological assessment at the time of the second MRI examination in order to characterize the profile of cognitive deficits. Results: fMRI analysis revealed anatomically appropriate activation to speech in both the first and the second scans but a reduced pattern of task-induced deactivations in the first scan. In the second scan, following the recovery of consciousness, this pattern became more similar to that classically described for the default-mode network. DTI analysis revealed relative preservation of the arcuate fasciculus and of the global normal-appearing white matter at both time points. The neuropsychological assessment revealed recovery of receptive linguistic functioning by 12-months post-ictus. Conclusions: These results suggest that the combination of different structural and functional imaging modalities may provide a powerful means for assessing the mechanisms involved in the recovery from the VS.

Combination of diffusion tensor and functional magnetic resonance imaging during recovery from the vegetative state

Background: The rate of recovery from the vegetative state (VS) is low. Currently, little is known of the mechanisms and cerebral changes that accompany those relatively rare cases of good recovery. Here, we combined functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) to study the evolution of one VS patient at one month post-ictus and again twelve months later when he had recovered consciousness. Methods fMRI was used to investigate cortical responses to passive language stimulation as well as task-induced deactivations related to the default-mode network. DTI was used to assess the integrity of the global white matter and the arcuate fasciculus. We also performed a neuropsychological assessment at the time of the second MRI examination in order to characterize the profile of cognitive deficits. Results: fMRI analysis revealed anatomically appropriate activation to speech in both the first and the second scans but a reduced pattern of task-induced deactivations in the first scan. In the second scan, following the recovery of consciousness, this pattern became more similar to that classically described for the default-mode network. DTI analysis revealed relative preservation of the arcuate fasciculus and of the global normal-appearing white matter at both time points. The neuropsychological assessment revealed recovery of receptive linguistic functioning by 12-months post-ictus. Conclusions: These results suggest that the combination of different structural and functional imaging modalities may provide a powerful means for assessing the mechanisms involved in the recovery from the VS.

Combination of diffusion tensor and functional magnetic resonance imaging during recovery from the vegetative state

Background: The rate of recovery from the vegetative state (VS) is low. Currently, little is known of the mechanisms and cerebral changes that accompany those relatively rare cases of good recovery. Here, we combined functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) to study the evolution of one VS patient at one month post-ictus and again twelve months later when he had recovered consciousness. Methods fMRI was used to investigate cortical responses to passive language stimulation as well as task-induced deactivations related to the default-mode network. DTI was used to assess the integrity of the global white matter and the arcuate fasciculus. We also performed a neuropsychological assessment at the time of the second MRI examination in order to characterize the profile of cognitive deficits. Results: fMRI analysis revealed anatomically appropriate activation to speech in both the first and the second scans but a reduced pattern of task-induced deactivations in the first scan. In the second scan, following the recovery of consciousness, this pattern became more similar to that classically described for the default-mode network. DTI analysis revealed relative preservation of the arcuate fasciculus and of the global normal-appearing white matter at both time points. The neuropsychological assessment revealed recovery of receptive linguistic functioning by 12-months post-ictus. Conclusions: These results suggest that the combination of different structural and functional imaging modalities may provide a powerful means for assessing the mechanisms involved in the recovery from the VS.