Evaluación económica de los impactos del cambio climático sobre la salud

El Informe Stern, realizado a instancias del Gobierno Británico, se ha convertido en el documento paradigmático de la economía del cambio climático. No solo proporciona una estimación de los costes del cambio climático, sino que resulta ser una aportación fundamental a la evaluación de los datos existentes y al fomento de un mayor conocimiento de los aspectos económicos del cambio climático. El informe tiene una perspectiva internacional, por cuanto el cambio climático es un problema mundial, tanto en sus causas como en sus consecuencias. La adopción de medidas colectivas a nivel internacional es crucial para conseguir una respuesta eficaz, eficiente y equitativa. Así, se insta a la comunidad internacional a actuar con fuerza y de forma inmediata en la toma de decisiones que permitan reducir las emisiones (de CO2) para que los efectos del cambio climático no comiencen a ser irremediables. De hecho, la principal conclusión del informe es que los beneficios de la adopción de medidas prontas y firmes sobre el cambio climático superarán con creces los costes

Geologia, canvi climàtic i arquitectura

Nombroses investigacions han establert una relació directa entre l'activitat antròpica i el canvi climàtic. Una majoria aclaparadora de científics han demostrat que l’ascens progressiu de les temperatures de les darreres dècades ha estat degut ala incorporació artificial a l’atmosfera de gasos que accentuen l’efecte hivernacle (GEH). És evident que els efectes del canvi climàtic afecten la dinàmica de la Terra

Deficit, human capital and economic growth dynamics

Long-run economic growth arouses a great interest since it can shed light on the income-path of an economy and try to explain the large differences in income we observe across countries and over time. The neoclassical model has been followed by several endogenous growth models which, contrarily to the former, seem to predict that economies with similar preferences and technological level, do not necessarily tend to converge to similar per capita income levels. This paper attempts to show a possible mechanismthrough which macroeconomic disequilibria and inefficiencies, represented by budget deficits, may hinder human capital accumulation and therefore economic growth. Using a mixed education system, deficit is characterized as a bug agent which may end up sharply reducing the resources devoted to education and training. The paper goes a step further from the literature on deficit by introducing a rich dynamic analysis of the effects of a deficit reduction on different economic aspects.Following a simple growth model and allowing for slight changes in the law of human capital accumulation, we reach a point where deficit might sharply reduce human capital accumulation. On the other hand, a deficit reduction carried on for a long time, taking that reduction as a more efficient management of the economy, may prove useful in inducing endogenous growth. Empirical evidence for a sample of countries seems to support the theoretical assumptions in the model: (1) evidence on an inverse relationship betweendeficit and human capital accumulation, (2) presence of a strongly negative associationbetween the quantity of deficit in the economy and the rate of growth. They may prove a certain role for budget deficit in economic growth

Deficit, human capital and economic growth dynamics

Long-run economic growth arouses a great interest since it can shed light on the income-path of an economy and try to explain the large differences in income we observe across countries and over time. The neoclassical model has been followed by several endogenous growth models which, contrarily to the former, seem to predict that economies with similar preferences and technological level, do not necessarily tend to converge to similar per capita income levels. This paper attempts to show a possible mechanismthrough which macroeconomic disequilibria and inefficiencies, represented by budget deficits, may hinder human capital accumulation and therefore economic growth. Using a mixed education system, deficit is characterized as a bug agent which may end up sharply reducing the resources devoted to education and training. The paper goes a step further from the literature on deficit by introducing a rich dynamic analysis of the effects of a deficit reduction on different economic aspects.Following a simple growth model and allowing for slight changes in the law of human capital accumulation, we reach a point where deficit might sharply reduce human capital accumulation. On the other hand, a deficit reduction carried on for a long time, taking that reduction as a more efficient management of the economy, may prove useful in inducing endogenous growth. Empirical evidence for a sample of countries seems to support the theoretical assumptions in the model: (1) evidence on an inverse relationship betweendeficit and human capital accumulation, (2) presence of a strongly negative associationbetween the quantity of deficit in the economy and the rate of growth. They may prove a certain role for budget deficit in economic growth

Proposta de pla d’ acció per la mitigació i l’ adaptació al canvi climàtic a la ciutat de Girona

La proposta general d’ aquest projecte és la presentació de les bases generals d’ un pla d’ acció per la mitigació i l’ adaptació al canvi climàtic a la ciutat de Girona, destinat a l’ administració local que permeti una millora de la situació actual en relació als possibles efectes i conseqüències del canvi climàtic.L’ estudi es basa en: l’ anàlisi dels efectes i conseqüències del canvi climàtic, un estudi de la situació actual de la ciutat de Girona i sobre les diferents percepcions i adaptacions de la població de Girona al canvi climàtic. Tot plegat destinat a l’ obtenció de les eines que ens permetin proposar possibles accions realitzar per part de l’ administració local

Periodic Solutions in Low-Dimensional Climatic Models

Classic climatic models use constitutive laws without any response time. A more realistic approach to the natural processes governing climate dynamics must introduce response time for heat and radiation fluxes. Extended irreversible thermodynamics (EIT) is a good thermodynamical framework for introducing nonclassical constitutive laws. In the present study EIT has been used to analyze a Budyko–Sellers one-dimensional energybalance model developed by G. R. North. The results present self-sustained periodic oscillations when the response time is greater than a critical value. The high-frequency (few kiloyears) damped and nondamped oscillations obtained can be related to abrupt climatic changes without any variation in the external forcing of the system

Assessing trends in insured losses from floods in Spain 1971-2008

Economic impacts from floods have been increasing over recent decades, a fact often attributed to a changing climate. On the other hand, there is now a significant body of scientific scholarship all pointing towards increasing concentrations and values of assets as the principle cause of the increasing cost of natural disasters. This holds true for a variety of perils and across different jurisdictions. With this in mind, this paper examines the time history of insured losses from floods in Spain between 1971 and 2008. It as- sesses whether any discernible residual signal remains after adjusting the data for the increase in the number and value of insured assets over this period of time. Data on insured losses from floods were sourced from Consorcio de Com- pensacíon de Seguros (CCS). Although a public institution, CCS compensates homeowners for the damage produced by floods, and thus plays a role similar to that of a private insurance company. Insured losses were adjusted using two proxy measures: first, changes in the total amount of annual surcharges (premiums) paid by customers to CCS, and secondly, changes in the total value of dwellings per year. The adjusted data reveals no significant trend over the period 1971-2008 and serves again to confirm that at this juncture, societal in- fluences remain the prime factors driving insured and economic losses from natural disasters.

Spatiotemporal variability in radial growth of trees in the Central Pyrenees: climatic and site influences.

To understand how tree growth has responded to recent climate warming, an understanding of the tree-climate-site complex is necessary. To achieve this, radial growth variability among 204 trees established before 1850 was studied in relation to both climatic and site factors. Seventeen forest stands were sampled in the Spanish Central Pyrenees. Three species were studied: Pinus uncinata, Abies alba, and Pinus sylvestris. For each tree, a ring-width residual chronology was built. All trees cross-dated well, indicating a common influence of the regional climate. For the 1952-1993 period, the radial growth of all species, especially P. uncinata, was positively correlated with warm Novembers during the year before ring formation and warm Mays of the year the annual ring formed. Differences in species-stand elevation modulated the growth-climate associations. Radial growth in P. uncinata at high elevation sites was reduced when May temperatures were colder and May precipitation more abundant. In the 20th century, two contrasting periods in radial growth were observed: one (1900-1949) with low frequency of narrow and wide rings, low mean annual sensitivity, and low common growth variation; and another (1950-1994) with the reverse characteristics. The increased variability in radial growth since the 1950s was observed for all species and sites, which suggests a climatic cause. The low shared variance among tree chronologies during the first half of the 20th century may result from a"relaxation" of the elevation gradient, allowing local site conditions to dominate macroclimatic influence. These temporal trends may be related to the recently reported increase of climatic variability and warmer conditions. This study emphasizes the need to carefully assess the relationships between radial growth and site conditions along ecological gradients to improve dendroclimatic reconstructions.

Las entidades sub-nacionales en Norteamérica y la lucha contra el cambio climático: desarrollo normativo y vinculación de sistemas de comercio de derechos de emisión

[spa] Mientras que en Europa la interdependencia y la dimensión transfronteriza de las cuestiones ligadas al cambio climático ha facilitado una cierta"continentalización" de la gestión de este fenómeno, favorecida por el carácter intergubernamental de las medidas que se adoptan en el marco de la Unión Europea, al otro lado del Atlántico la transversalidad de este mismo fenómeno explica la necesidad de que, ante las limitaciones del marco regional, se pongan en marcha mecanismos que faciliten la intervención no sólo estatal sino también de las entidades sub-nacionales. En este sentido, la ausencia de la acción federal tanto en Estados Unidos como en Canadá ha comportado un mayor desarrollo de la acción de las entidades sub-nacionales, que han tomado el liderazgo en la lucha contra el cambio climático. Son estas medidas las que se han visualizado en el escenario internacional. Ello ha favorecido el establecimiento de mecanismos de coordinación de la acción de estas entidades sub-nacionales en el seno de redes transnacionales, que han ido adquiriendo una mayor relevancia en la implementación del Convenio Marco sobre el Cambio Climático y del Protocolo de Kyoto, particularmente en relación a uno de sus instrumentos, el comercio de los derechos de emisión de gases de efecto invernadero. En este contexto, la futura vinculación de los sistemas de comercio de derechos de emisión de gases de efecto invernadero en Norteamérica con el sistema de la Unión Europea presenta diversos retos de carácter material y formal.

Nationalist neoliberalism? Minority Nationalism, competitiveness and the urban question

Presentation at: II IAS Annual Research Programme International ConferenceSession: Governing Regions, Lancaster Setember 17-19 2007

Flash flood evolution in North-Western Mediterranean

The present paper shows an in-depth analysis of the evolution of floods and precipitation in Catalonia for the period 1981-2010. In order to have homogeneous information, and having in mind that not gauge data was available for all the events, neither for all the rivers and stream flows, daily press from a specific newspaper has been systematically analysed for this period. Furthermore a comparison with a longer period starting in 1900 has been done. 219 flood events (mainly flash flood events) have been identified for the period of 30 years (375 starting in 1900), 79 of them were ordinary, 117 of them were extraordinary and 23 of them were catastrophic, being autumn and summer the seasons with the maxima values. 19% of the events caused a total of 110 casualties. 60% of them died when they tried to cross the street or the stream. Factors like the evolution of precipitation, population density and other socio-economical aspects have been considered. The trend analysis shows an increase of 1 flood/decade that probably has been mainly due to inter-annual and intra-annual changes in population density and in land-use and land-cover.

Projeccions de canvi climatic per a Catalunya (NE Península Ibèrica). Part II: sintetitzant diverses metodologies = Climate change projections for Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula). Part II: Integrating several methodologies

The publication of the fourth IPCC report, as well as the number of research results reported in recent years about the regionalization of climate projections, were the driving forces to justify the update of the report on climate change in Catalonia. Specifically, the new IPCC report contains new climate projections at global and continental scales, while several international projects (especially European projects PRUDENCE and ENSEMBLES) have produced continental-scale climate projections, which allow for distinguishing between European regions. For Spain, some of these results have been included in a document commissioned by the“State Agency of Meteorology”. In addition, initiatives are being developed within Catalonia (in particular, by the Meteorological Service of Catalonia) to downscale climate projections in this area. The present paper synthesizes results of these and other previously published studies, as well as our own analysis of results of the ENSEMBLES project. The aim is to propose scenarios of variation in temperature and rainfall in Catalonia during the 21st Century. Thus, by the middle of this century temperatures could rise up to 2 C compared with that of the late 20th Century. These increases would probably be higher in summer than in winter, generalized across the territory but less pronounced in coastal areas. Rainfall, however, would not change much, but it could slightly decrease. Towards the end of the 21st Century, temperatures could rise to about 5 C above that of the last century, while the average rainfall could decrease by more than 10%. Increases in temperature would be higher in summer and in areas further from the coast. Rainfall would decrease especially during the summer, while it could even increase in winter in mountainous areas such as the Pyrenees.

Creando valor a través de las TIC: nuevos intermediarios

Este trabajo analiza cómo se puede crear valor a través del uso de las TIC. Para ello se utiliza el Modelo de creación de valor en e-business desarrollado por Amit y Zott (2001) y se aplica a una tipología de nuevos intermediarios que opera en el sector de los contenidos digitales: gregadores de noticias. Para lograr este objetivo, se ha realizado un estudio exploratorio y un estudio de casos a través de entrevistas personales con informadores estratégicos y un análisis del contenido de las páginas web de 56 empresas relacionadas con el sector y cuestionarios, principalmenteSe han analizado empresas de EEUU, Canadá, España, Francia, Alemania, Reino Unido y Suiza

Cap a l'autosuficiència energètica: barri La Plana, Sitges

En el present estudi s’ha analitzat si és possible l’autosuficiència energètica al barri projectat de La Plana de Sitges a partir de fonts renovables d’energia. S’ha realitzat un anàlisi de l’oferta potencial del barri de La Plana, format per habitatges unifamiliars i plurifamiliars, serveis i equipaments i s’ha comparat el potencial de producció energètica dels recursos renovables locals a cada subsistema i pel sistema de La Plana. Diferenciant si són una Oferta estàndard (4.000 MWh/a) seguint la Normativa d’ecoeficiència de Sitges o bé una Oferta renovable (19.000 MWh/a) segons un Ecobarri proposat en aquest projecte a partir d’energia solar fotovoltaica i tèrmica. En l’estudi de la demanda, diferenciant entre una Demanda estàndard (39.000 MWh/a), respon al total de La Plana seguint el consum d’un habitatge tipus de la mitjana catalana (ICAEN, 2002) i una Demanda eficient (20.800 MWh/a) seguint un model de baix consum projectat en un Ecobarri de Barcelona. (Vallbona, 2009). Per analitzar de forma detallada les variables d’oferta i demanda, s’han proposat quatre escenaris diferents on es valoren l’autosuficiència energètica del sistema de la Plana i aspectes ambientals d’emissions derivades de la utilització de l’energia. El primer escenari és l’estàndard i és el resultat d’analitzar conjuntament una oferta i una demanda estàndard. Al segon escenari conflueixen una Oferta Estàndard i una Demanda Eficient. En el tercer escenari coincideixen una Oferta Renovable i una Demanda Estàndard. El quart i últim escenari respon a la proposta d’Ecobarri on l’Oferta és renovable i la Demanda eficient. Tanmateix, s’ha realitzat un estudi sobre els aspectes econòmics de La Plana que s’estimen en uns beneficis per la venda de l’energia d’uns 5 milions d’euros anuals i uns costos d’instal·lació de 80 milions d’euros. Finalment s’ha constatat que és possible assolir una autosuficiència del 90% a l’escenari Ecobarri (oferta renovable - demanda eficient). Mitjançant la instal·lació de sistemes de captació solar a les cobertes, cobrint el 100% de la demanda d’ACS, i captadors solars FV, ambdues estratègies són viables i representen beneficis econòmics i una reducció d’emissions de l’ordre de 13.700 Tn CO2 equivalents anuals que suposen un estalvi del 88% respecte un escenari d’oferta i demanda estàndard.