Effects of competition over quality-adjusted price indexes: an application to the Spanish automobile market

Using a newly constructed data set, we calculate quality-adjusted price indexes after estimating hedonic price regressions from 1988 to 2004 in the Spanish automobile market. The increasing competition was favoured by the removal of trade restrictions and the special plans for the renewal of the Spanish automobile fleet. We find that the increasing degree of competition during those years led to an overall drop in automobile prices by 20 percent which implied considerable consumer gains thanks to higher market efficiency. Additionally, our results indicate that loyalty relevance and discrepancies in automobile reliability declined during those years. This is captured.

Toward partial reorientation of land management for sustainability in view of material circulation: biophysical and historical analysis

This paper explores two major issues, from biophysical and historical viewpoints. We examine land management, which we define as the long-term fertility maintenance of land in relation to agriculture, fishery and forestry. We also explore humans’ positive role as agents aiming to reinforce harmonious materials circulation within the land. Liebig’s view on nature, agriculture and land, emphasizes the maintenance of long-term land fertility based on his agronomical thought that the circulation of matter in agricultural fields must be maintained with manure as much as possible. The thoughts of several classical economists, on nature, agriculture and land are reassessed from Liebig’s view point. Then, the land management problem is discussed at a much more fundamental level, to understand the necessary conditions for life in relation to land management. This point is analyzed in terms of two mechanisms: entropy disposal on the earth, and material circulation against gravitational field. Finally from the historical example of the metropolis of Edo, it is shown that there is yet another necessary condition for the sustainable management of land based on the creation of harmonious material cycles among cities, farm land, forests and surrounding sea areas in which humans play a vital role as agent.

Circulation of private notes during a currency shortage

This paper provides a search theoretical model that captures two phenomena that have characterized several episodes of monetary history: currency shortages and the circulation of privately issued notes. As usual in these models, the media of exchange are determined as part of the equilibrium. We characterize all the different equilibria and specify the conditions under which there is a currency shortage and/or privately issued notes are used as means of payment. There is multiplicity of equilibria for the entire parameter space, but there always exist an equilibrium in which notes circulate, either alone or together with coins. Hence, credit is a self-fulfilling phenomenon that depends on the beliefs of agents about the acceptability and future repayment of notes. The degree of circulation of coins depends on two crucial parameters, the intrinsic utility of holding coins and the extent with which it is possible to find exchange opportunities in the market.

Contractual allocation of decision rights and incentives: The case of automobile distribution

We analyze empirically the allocation of rights and monetary incentives in automobile franchise contracts. These contracts substantially restrict the decision rights of dealers and grant manufacturers extensive contractual completion and enforcement powers, converting the manufacturers, de facto, in a sort of quasi-judiciary instance. Variation in the allocation of decision rights andincentive intensity is explained by the incidence of moral hazard in the relation. In particular, when the cost of dealer moral hazard is higher and the risk of manufactureropportunism is lower, manufacturers enjoy more discretion in determining the performance required from their dealers and in using mechanisms such as monitoring, termination and monetary incentives to ensure such performance is provided. We also explore the existence of interdependencies between the different elements of the system. and find some complementarities between completion and termination rights, and between monitoring rights and the intensity of incentives.

State and industry in the 1940s: The Spanish automobile industry

The decade of the 1940s was one of the darkest periods in the country's history, with years of famine, repression, general misery, and impoverishment of all aspects of national life ranging from culture to the economy. During those years plans were made to establish a Spanish motor industry once the Civil War had come to an end in 1939. It seemed a propitious moment for private enterprise and various foreign motor companies presented proposals for manufacturing their entire vehicle range, from cars to trucks. However, the government plans were for a State monopoly, a policy which meant that any private projects which did not contemplate the regime taking management decisions were rejected out of hand. From 1941 onwards, any new initiative was required to meet the plans set by INI. The main argument running through this paper is that one can only understand the development of the modern Spanish motor industry if one grasps the haggling between motor companies and government regarding market entry and the impact of the regime's autarchic policies in the 1940s.

Anomalous rainfall and associated atmospheric circulation in the northeast Spanish Mediterranean area and its relationship to sediment fluidization events in a lake

Changes in the dynamics of sediment transport in a Mediterranean lake (sediment fluidization events) are linked to atmospheric circulations patterns (trough monthly precipitation). In the basins of Lake Banyoles, located in the northeast of Spain, water enters mainly through subterranean springs, and associated fluctuations in the vertical migration of sediment distribution (fluidization events) present episodic behavior as a result of episodic rainfall in the area. The initiation of the fluidization events takes place when the monthly rainfall is ∼2.7 times greater than the mean monthly rainfall of the rainiest months in the area, especially in spring (April and May), October, and December. The duration of these events is found to be well correlated with the accumulated rainfall of the preceding 10 months before the process initiation. The rainfall, in turn, is mainly associated with six atmospheric circulation patterns among the 19 fundamental circulations that emerged in an earlier study focused on significant rainfall days in Mediterranean Spain. Among them, accentuated surface lows over the northeast of Spain, general northeasterly winds by low pressure centered to the east of Balearic Islands and short baroclinic waves over the Iberian Peninsula, with easterly flows over the northeastern coast of Spain, are found the most relevant atmospheric circulations that drive heavy rainfall events

Individual prediction of automobile bodily injury claims liabilities

[spa] La mayoría de siniestros con daños corporales se liquidan mediante negociación, llegando a juicio menos del 5% de los casos. Una estrategia de negociación bien definida es, por tanto, fundamental para las compañías aseguradoras. En este artículo asumimos que la compensación monetaria concedida en juicio es la máxima cuantía que debería ser ofrecida por el asegurador en el proceso de negociación. Usando una base de datos real, implementamos un modelo log-lineal para estimar la máxima oferta de negociación. Perturbaciones no-esféricas son detectadas. Correlación ocurre cuando más de una siniestro se liquida en la misma sentencia judicial. Heterocedasticidad por grupos se debe a la influencia de la valoración del forense en la indemnización final.

Individual prediction of automobile bodily injury claims liabilities

[spa] La mayoría de siniestros con daños corporales se liquidan mediante negociación, llegando a juicio menos del 5% de los casos. Una estrategia de negociación bien definida es, por tanto, fundamental para las compañías aseguradoras. En este artículo asumimos que la compensación monetaria concedida en juicio es la máxima cuantía que debería ser ofrecida por el asegurador en el proceso de negociación. Usando una base de datos real, implementamos un modelo log-lineal para estimar la máxima oferta de negociación. Perturbaciones no-esféricas son detectadas. Correlación ocurre cuando más de una siniestro se liquida en la misma sentencia judicial. Heterocedasticidad por grupos se debe a la influencia de la valoración del forense en la indemnización final.

The extent of the collateral circulation influences the postprandial increase in portal pressure in patients with cirrhosis.

Background: In cirrhosis, repeated flares of portal pressure and collateral blood flow provoked by postprandial hyperaemia may contribute to variceal dilation and rupture. Aim: To examine the effect of the extent of the collateral circulation on the postprandial increase in portal pressure observed in cirrhosis. Patients and methods: The hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG), hepatic blood flow and azygos blood flow were measured in 64 patients with cirrhosis before and after a standard liquid meal. Results: Peak increases in HVPG (median+14.9%), hepatic blood flow (median+25.4%), and azygos blood flow (median+32.2%) occurred at 30 min after the meal. Compared with patients with marked postprandial increase in HVPG (above the median, n¿=¿32), those showing mild (<15%, n¿=¿32) increase in HVPG had a higher baseline azygos flow (p<0.01) and underwent a greater postprandial increase in azygos flow (p<0.02). Hepatic blood flow increased similarly in both groups. Postprandial increases in HVPG were inversely correlated (p<0.001) with both baseline azygos flow (r¿=¿¿0.69) and its postprandial increase (r¿=¿¿0.72). Food intake increased nitric oxide products in the azygos (p<0.01), but not in the hepatic vein. Large varices (p<0.01) and previous variceal bleeding (p<0.001) were more frequent in patients with mild increase in HVPG. Conclusions: Postprandial hyperaemia simultaneously increases HVPG and collateral flow. The extent of the collateral circulation determines the HVPG response to food intake. Patients with extensive collateralisation show less pronounced postprandial increases in HVPG, but associated with marked flares in collateral flow. Collateral vessels preserve their ability to dilate in response to increased blood flow.

Science in Western Islam. The circulation of knowledge in Mediterranean region

La Mediterrània ha estat gresol de la circulació d¿idees i persones des de fa mil·lennis. Durant l¿edat mitjana, però, el moviment més rellevant va ser, tal vegada, el que es va produirentre l¿Orient (Maixriq) i l¿Occident (Magrib) islàmics. Els viatges d¿estudis, íntimament units a les prescripcions religioses,varen convertir els científics musulmans en membres especialment actius en la difusió dels coneixements i dels avenços ques¿anaven adquirint a la capital de l¿imperi, Bagdad. Lluny de ser mers «transportistes» de la ciència, el nivell cultural assolit durantl'edat d'or abbassí els va convertir en un dels clímaxs intel·lectuals de la història. Al principi, tot i restar en un discret segonpla, els científics del nord d¿Àfrica i, especialment, els científicsd'al-Andalus varen tenir un paper essencial en la transmissióde la ciència oriental cap a una Europa que en va recollir el testimoni.Per això l¿aportació de la cultura araboislàmica és un esglaó sense el qual és impossible entendre la ciència posterior.Els camps conreats foren diversos: medicina, agronomia,òptica... però l¿àmbit que presidí la ciència fou, sens dubte,l¿astronomia (relacionada, al seu torn, amb les matemàtiques i la geografia). Els noms dels astrònoms més rellevants (desd¿al-Khwarizmi fins a Azarquiel) i les fites que varen assolir justifiquen que fossin coneguts per un públic ampli. Malgrat tot, continuen essent uns grans desconeguts.

Circulation of a Meaban-like virus in yellow-legged gulls and seabird ticks in the western Mediterranean Basin

In recent years, a number of zoonotic flaviviruses have emerged worldwide, and wild birds serve as their major reservoirs. Epidemiological surveys of bird populations at various geographical scales can clarify key aspects of the eco-epidemiology of these viruses. In this study, we aimed at exploring the presence of flaviviruses in the western Mediterranean by sampling breeding populations of the yellow-legged gull (Larus michahellis), a widely distributed, anthropophilic, and abundant seabird species. For 3 years, we sampled eggs from 19 breeding colonies in Spain, France, Algeria, and Tunisia. First, ELISAs were used to determine if the eggs contained antibodies against flaviviruses. Second, neutralization assays were used to identify the specific flaviviruses present. Finally, for colonies in which ELISA-positive eggs had been found, chick serum samples and potential vectors, culicid mosquitoes and soft ticks (Ornithodoros maritimus), were collected and analyzed using serology and PCR, respectively. The prevalence of flavivirus-specific antibodies in eggs was highly spatially heterogeneous. In northeastern Spain, on the Medes Islands and in the nearby village of L'Escala, 56% of eggs had antibodies against the flavivirus envelope protein, but were negative for neutralizing antibodies against three common flaviviruses: West Nile, Usutu, and tick-borne encephalitis viruses. Furthermore, little evidence of past flavivirus exposure was obtained for the other colonies. A subset of the Ornithodoros ticks from Medes screened for flaviviral RNA tested positive for a virus whose NS5 gene was 95% similar to that of Meaban virus, a flavivirus previously isolated from ticks of Larus argentatus in western France. All ELISA-positive samples subsequently tested positive for Meaban virus neutralizing antibodies. This study shows that gulls in the western Mediterranean Basin are exposed to a tick-borne Meaban-like virus, which underscores the need of exploring the spatial and temporal distribution of this flavivirus as well as its potential pathogenicity for animals and humans.

Seabirds and the circulation of Lyme borreliosis bacteria in the North Pacific

Seabirds act as natural reservoirs to Lyme borreliosis spirochetes and may play a significant role in the global circulation of these pathogens. While Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato (Bbsl) has been shown to occur in ticks collected from certain locations in the North Pacific, little is known about interspecific differences in exposure within the seabird communities of this region. We examined the prevalence of anti-Bbsl antibodies in 805 individuals of nine seabird species breeding across the North Pacific. Seroprevalence varied strongly among species and locations. Murres (Uria spp.) showed the highest antibody prevalence and may play a major role in facilitating Bbsl circulation at a worldwide scale. Other species showed little or no signs of exposure, despite being present in multispecific colonies with seropositive birds. Complex dynamics may be operating in this wide scale, natural hostparasite system, possibly mediated by the host immune system and host specialization of the tick vector.

Forecasting the maximum compensation offer in the automobile BI claims negotiation process

Most motor bodily injury (BI) claims are settled by negotiation, with fewer than 5% of cases going to court. A well-defined negotiation strategy is thus very useful for insurance companies. In this paper we assume that the monetary compensation awarded in court is the upper amount to be offered by the insurer in the negotiation process. Using a real database, a log-linear model is implemented to estimate the maximal offer. Non-spherical disturbances are detected. Correlation occurs when various claims are settled in the same judicial verdict. Group wise heteroscedasticity is due to the influence of the forensic valuation on the final compensation amount. An alternative approximation based on generalized inference theory is applied to estimate confidence intervals on variance components, since classical interval estimates may be unreliable for datasets with unbalanced structures.

Prediction of individual automobile RBNS claim reserves in the context of Solvency II

Automobile bodily injury (BI) claims remain unsettled for a long time after the accident. The estimation of an accurate reserve for Reported But Not Settled (RBNS) claims is therefore vital for insurers. In accordance with the recommendation included in the Solvency II project (CEIOPS, 2007) a statistical model is here implemented for RBNS reserve estimation. Lognormality on empirical compensation cost data is observed for different levels of BI severity. The individual claim provision is estimated by allocating the expected mean compensation for the predicted severity of the victim’s injury, for which the upper bound is also computed. The BI severity is predicted by means of a heteroscedastic multiple choice model, because empirical evidence has found that the variability in the latent severity of injured individuals travelling by car is not constant. It is shown that this methodology can improve the accuracy of RBNS reserve estimation at all stages, as compared to the subjective assessment that has traditionally been made by practitioners.

Estimation of Water Circulation in a Mediterranean Salt Marsh and its Relationship with Flooding Causes

Variations in water volume in small depressions in Mediterranean salt marshes in Girona (Spain) are described and the potential causes for these variations analysed. Although the basins appear to be endorrheic, groundwater circulation is intense, as estimated from the difference between water volume observed and that expected from the balance precipitation / evaporation. The rate of variation in volume (VR = AV / VAt) may be used to estimate groundwater supply ('circulation'), since direct measurements of this parameter are impossible. Volume.conductivity figures can also be used to estimate the quantity of circulation, and to investigate the origin of water supplied to the system. The relationships between variations in the volume of water in the basins and the main causes of flooding are also analysed. Sea storms, rainfall levels and strong, dry northerly winds are suggested as the main causes of the variations in the volumes of basins. The relative importance assigned to these factors has changed, following the recent regulation of freshwater flows entering the system