Causality and contagion in peripheral EMU public debt markets: a dynamic approach

Our research aims to analyze the causal relationships in the behavior of public debt issued by peripheral member countries of the European Economic and Monetary Union -EMU-, with special emphasis on the recent episodes of crisis triggered in the eurozone sovereign debt markets since 2009. With this goal in mind, we make use of a database of daily frequency of yields on 10-year government bonds issued by five EMU countries -Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain-, covering the entire history of the EMU from its inception on 1 January 1999 until 31 December 2010. In the first step, we explore the pair-wise causal relationship between yields, both for the whole sample and for changing subsamples of the data, in order to capture the possible time-varying causal relationship. This approach allows us to detect episodes of contagion between yields on bonds issued by different countries. In the second step, we study the determinants of these contagion episodes, analyzing the role played by different factors, paying special attention to instruments that capture the total national debt -domestic and foreign- in each country.

The causal factors of international inequality in CO2 emissions per capita: a regression-based inequality decomposition analysis

This paper uses the possibilities provided by the regression-based inequality decomposition (Fields, 2003) to explore the contribution of different explanatory factors to international inequality in CO2 emissions per capita. In contrast to previous emissions inequality decompositions, which were based on identity relationships (Duro and Padilla, 2006), this methodology does not impose any a priori specific relationship. Thus, it allows an assessment of the contribution to inequality of different relevant variables. In short, the paper appraises the relative contributions of affluence, sectoral composition, demographic factors and climate. The analysis is applied to selected years of the period 1993–2007. The results show the important (though decreasing) share of the contribution of demographic factors, as well as a significant contribution of affluence and sectoral composition.

The causal relationship between Individual’s choice behavior and self-reported satisfaction: the case of residential mobility in the EU

One of the most persistent and lasting debates in economic research refers to whether the answers to subjective questions can be used to explain individuals’ economic behavior. Using panel data for twelve EU countries, in the present study we analyze the causal relationship between self-reported housing satisfaction and residential mobility. Our results indicate that: i) households unsatisfied with their current housing situation are more likely to move; ii) housing satisfaction raises after a move, and; iii) housing satisfaction increases with the transition from being a renter to becoming a homeowner. Some interesting cross-country differences are observed. Our findings provide evidence in favor of use of subjective indicators of satisfaction with certain life domains in the analysis of individuals’ economic conduct.

The Causal effect of education on aggregate income

Empirical studies assume that the macro Mincer return on schooling is con- stant across countries. Using a large sample of countries this paper shows that countries with a better quality of education have on average relatively higher macro Mincer coeficients. As rich countries have on average better educational quality, differences in human capital between countries are larger than has been typically assumed in the development accounting literature. Consequently, factor accumulation explains a considerably larger share of income differences across countries than what is usually found.

Aprendizaje causal en humanos: detectando la fuerza causal en contextos que varían en la tasa base del efecto

El beneficio principal de contar con una representación de la potencia causal (Cheng, 1997) es que ésta supone una descripción contexto-independiente de la influencia de una determinada causa sobre el efecto. Por lo tanto, una forma adecuada de poner a prueba la existencia de estos modelos mentales es crear situaciones en las que la gente observa o predice la efectividad de las causas diana en múltiples contextos. La naturaleza trans-situacional de la potencia trae consigo una serie de consecuencias testables que hemos puesto a prueba a lo largo de tres series experimentales. En la primera serie experimental investigamos la transferencia de la fuerza causal, aprendida en un contexto específico, a un contexto en el que la probabilidad o tasa base del efecto es diferente. Los participantes debían predecir la probabilidad del efecto dada la introducción de la causa en el nuevo contexto. En la segunda serie experimental estudiamos las estrategias utilizadas por las personas a la hora de descubrir relaciones causales. De acuerdo con el modelo de la potencia causal, si pretendemos descubrir la potencia de una causa, entonces lo más apropiado es introducirla en el contexto más informativo y menos ambiguo posible. En los distintos experimentos de la serie combinamos tanto contextos como causas probabilísticas y determinísticas. En la tercera serie experimental intentamos extender los hallazgos de Liljeholm & Cheng (2007), en los se encontró que la generalización entre contextos ocurre según las predicciones del modelo de potencia. Parece probable que el procedimiento de dos fases utilizado por los autores promueva la tendencia a ignorar algunos ensayos, generando artificialmente resultados consistentes con los esperados por la potencia. Además, cuando controlamos la P(E|C) independientemente de la potencia, el patrón de resultados se invirtió, contradiciendo lo esperado por el modelo de Cheng. En conclusión, existe cierta evidencia que apoya la existencia de modelos causales pero es necesario buscar formas adecuadas de poner a prueba estos modelos.

The relationships between technology and open education in the development of a resilient higher education

The place of technology in the development of coherent educational responses to environmental and socio-economic disruption is here placed under scrutiny. One emerging area of interest is the role of technology in addressing more complex learning futures, and more especially in facilitating individual and social resilience, or the ability to manage and overcome disruption. However, the extent to which higher education practitioners can utilise technology to this end is framed by their approaches to the curriculum, and the socio-cultural practices within which they are located. This paper discusses how open education might enable learners to engage with uncertainty through social action within a form of higher education that is more resilient to economic, environmental and energy-related disruption. It asks whether open higher education can be (re)claimed by users and communities within specific contexts and curricula, in order to engage with an uncertain world.

Processos individuals en el rendiment acadèmic

En el següent treball es vol observar com influeixen diferents processos individuals (autoconcepte, autoestima, atribució causal dels èxits o fracassos, relacions familiars...) en el rendiment acadèmic de l'alumne. Per això s'ha fet el seguiment de 4 casos on s'ha explorat com afecten aquestes variables en el seu rendiment.

New stakeholders, spaces and instruments of analysis in the context of energy relationships: Case studies from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan

The disintegration of the USSR brought the emergence of a new geo-energy space in Central Asia. This space arose in the context of a global energy transition, which began in the late 1970s. Therefore, this new space in a changing energy world requires both new conceptual frameworks of analysis and the creation of new analytical tools. Taking into account this fact, our paper attempts to apply the theoretical framework of the Global Commodity Chain (GCC) to the case of natural resources in Central Asia. The aim of the paper is to check if there could be any Central Asia’s geo-energy space, assuming that this space would exist if natural resources were managed with regional criteria. The paper is divided into four sections. First an introduction that describes the new global energy context within natural resources of Central Asia would be integrated. Secondly, the paper justifies why the GCC methodology is suitable for the study of the value chains of energy products. Thirdly, we build up three cases studies (oil and uranium from Kazakhstan and gas from Turkmenistan) which reveal a high degree of uncertainty over the direction these chains will take. Finally, we present the conclusions of this study that state that the most plausible scenario would be the integration of energy resources of these countries in GCC where the core of the decision-making process will be far away from the region of Central Asia. Key words: Energy transition, geo-energy space, Global Commodity Chains, Central Asia

The relationships of stress, health and wellbeing among workers

The precise relationship between the positive psychological state of work (i.e. engagement ) and the negative psychological state (i.e. burnout) has recently received research attention. Some view these as opposite states on the same similar continuum, while others take the position that they represent different biobehavioral spheres. This study expands our knowledge of the phenomenta engagement and burnout by analyzing their separate and joint manifestations. Using a sample of 2094 nurses, respondents were analyzed to determine the configuration of antecedents leading to separate and joint states of engagement and burnout, the configuration of engagement and burnout leading to mental, physical and organizational outcomes, and the relationship between engagement, bornout, and risk of metabolic syndrome. The study found that while both work engagement and burnout are highly correlated to health and organizational outcomes, the relative statistical power of burnout has a greater direct effect on health. It is important for workers and managers to adress the sources of burnout before addressing the positive psychological aspects of worker engagement.

Mechanisms of antagonism of Pseudomonas fluorescens EPS62e against Erwinia amylovora, the causal agent of fire blight

Pseudomonas fluorescens EPS62e was selected during a screening procedure for its high efficacy in controlling infections by Erwinia amylovora, the causal agent of fire blight disease, on different plant materials. In field trials carried out in pear trees during bloom, EPS62e colonized flowers until the carrying capacity, providing a moderate efficacy of fire-blight control. The putative mechanisms of EPS62e antagonism against E. amylovora were studied. EPS62e did not produce antimicrobial compounds described in P. fluorescens species and only developed antagonism in King’s B medium, where it produced siderophores. Interaction experiments in culture plate wells including a membrane filter, which physically separated the cultures, confirmed that inhibition of E. amylovora requires cell-to-cell contact. The spectrum of nutrient assimilation indicated that EPS62e used significantly more or different carbon sources than the pathogen. The maximum growth rate and affinity for nutrients in immature fruit extract were higher in EPS62e than in E. amylovora, but the cell yield was similar. The fitness of EPS62e and E. amylovora was studied upon inoculation in immature pear fruit wounds and hypanthia of intact flowers under controlled-environment conditions. When inoculated separately, EPS62e grew faster in flowers, whereas E. amylovora grew faster in fruit wounds because of its rapid spread to adjacent tissues. However, in preventive inoculations of EPS62e, subsequent growth of EPS101 was significantly inhibited. It is concluded that cell-to-cell interference as well as differences in growth potential and the spectrum and efficiency of nutrient use are mechanisms of antagonism of EPS62e against E. amylovora

Logistics-production, logistics-marketing and external integration: Their impact on performance

Highly competitive environments are leading companies to implement SupplyChain Management (SCM) to improve performance and gain a competitiveadvantage. SCM involves integration, co-ordination and collaborationacross organisations and throughout the supply chain. It means that SCMrequires internal (intraorganisational) and external (interorganisational)integration. This paper examines the Logistics-Production and Logistics-Marketing interfaces and their relation with the external integrationprocess. The study also investigates the causal impact of these internaland external relationships on the company s logistical service performance.To analyse this, an empirical study was conducted in the Spanish Fast MovingConsumer Goods (FMCG) sector.

Long run relationships and price rigidity

I study a repeated buyer-seller relationship for the exchange of a givengood. Asymmetric information over the buyer's reservation price, which issubject to random shocks, may lead the seller to use a rigid pricing policydespite the possibility of making higher profits through price discriminationacross the different satates of the buyer's reservation price. The existence of a flexible price subgame perfect equilibrium is shown for the buyerssufficiently locked-in. When the seller faces a population of buyers whose degree of involvmentin the relatioship is unknown, the flexible price equilibrium is notnecessarily optimal. Thus tipically the seller will prefer to use therigid price strategy. A learning process allowing the seller to screenthe population of buyers is derived abd the existence of a switching pointbetween the two regimes (i.e. price rigidity and price felxibility) isshown.

Causal assessment in finite extensive-form games

Two finite extensive-form games are empirically equivalent when theempirical distribution on action profiles generated by every behaviorstrategy in one can also be generated by an appropriately chosen behaviorstrategy in the other. This paper provides a characterization ofempirical equivalence. The central idea is to relate a game's informationstructure to the conditional independencies in the empirical distributionsit generates. We present a new analytical device, the influence opportunitydiagram of a game, describe how such a diagram is constructed for a givenextensive-form game, and demonstrate that it provides a complete summaryof the information needed to test empirical equivalence between two games.