Markups, Gaps, and the Welfare Costs of Business Fluctuations

In this paper we present a simple theory-based measure of the variations in aggregate economic efficiency: the gap between the marginal product of labor and the household s consumption/leisure tradeoff. We show that this indicator corresponds to the inverse of the markup of price over social marginal cost, and give some evidence in support of this interpretation. We then show that, with some auxilliary assumptions our gap variable may be used to measure the efficiency costs of business fluctuations. We find that the latter costs are modest on average. However, to the extent the flexible price equilibrium is distorted, the gross efficiency losses from recessions and gains from booms may be large. Indeed, we find that the major recessions involved large efficiency losses. These results hold for reasonable parameterizations of the Frisch elasticity of labor supply, the coefficient of relative risk aversion, and steady state distortions.

Markups, gaps and the welfare costs of business fluctuations

In this paper we present a simple theory-based measure of the variations in aggregate economic efficiency: the gap between the marginal product of labor and the household s consumption/leisure tradeoff. We show that this indicator corresponds to the inverse of the markup of price over social marginal cost, and give some evidence in support of this interpretation. We then show that, with some auxilliary assumptions our gap variable may be used to measure the efficiency costs of business fluctuations. We find that the latter costs are modest on average. However, to the extent the flexible price equilibrium is distorted,the gross efficiency losses from recessions and gains from booms may be large. Indeed, we find that the major recessions involved large efficiency losses. These results hold for reasonable parameterizations of the Frisch elasticity of labor supply, the coefficient of relative risk aversion, and steady state distortions.

Macroeconomic shocks and the business cycle: evidence from a structural factor model

We use a dynamic factor model to provide a semi-structural representation for 101 quarterly US macroeconomic series. We find that (i) the US economy is well described by a number of structural shocks between two and six. Focusing on the four-shock specification, we identify, using sign restrictions, two non-policy shocks, demand and supply, and two policy shocks, monetary and fiscal. We obtain the following results. (ii) Both supply and demand shocks are important sources of fluctuations; supply prevails for GDP, while demand prevails for employment and inflation. (ii) Policy matters, Both monetary and fiscal policy shocks have sizeable effects on output and prices, with little evidence of crowding out; both monetary and fiscal authorities implement important systematic countercyclical policies reacting to demand shocks. (iii) Negative demand shocks have a large long-run positive effect on productivity, consistently with the Schumpeterian "cleansing" view of recessions.

No news in business cycles

This paper uses a structural, large dimensional factor model to evaluate the role of 'news' shocks (shocks with a delayed effect on productivity) in generating the business cycle. We find that (i) existing small-scale VECM models are affected by 'non-fundamentalness' and therefore fail to recover the correct shock and impulse response functions; (ii) news shocks have a limited role in explaining the business cycle; (iii) their effects are in line with what predicted by standard neoclassical theory; (iv) the bulk of business cycle fluctuations are explained by shocks unrelated to technology.

Consumption heterogenity over the business cycle

We study consumption heterogeneity over the business cycle. Using household panel data from 1984 to 2010 in the US we find that the welfare cost of the business cycle is non-negligible, once agents heterogeneity is taken into account, and sums to about 1% of yearly consumption. This is due to the structure of comovements between the different parts of the consumption distribution, in particular the tails are highly volatile and negatively related to each other. We also find that business cycle fluctuations originating from exogenous financial shocks only hit the top end of the consumption distribution and therefore reduce consumption inequality.

Business Cycles, Unemployment Insurance, and the Calibration of Matching Models

This paper points out an empirical puzzle that arises when an RBC economy with a job matching function is used to model unemployment. The standard model can generate sufficiently large cyclical fluctuations in unemployment, or a sufficiently small response of unemployment to labor market policies, but it cannot do both. Variable search and separation, finite UI benefit duration, efficiency wages, and capital all fail to resolve this puzzle. However, both sticky wages and match-specific productivity shocks help the model reproduce the stylized facts: both make the firm's flow of surplus more procyclical, thus making hiring more procyclical too.

Do institutions and culture matter for business cycles?

We examine the relationship between institutions, culture and cyclical fluctuations for a sampleof 45 European, Middle Eastern and North African countries. Better governance is associated withshorter and less severe contractions and milder expansions. Certain cultural traits, such as lack ofacceptance of power distance and individualism, are also linked business cycle features. Businesscycle synchronization is tightly related to similarities in the institutional environment. Mediterraneancountries conform to these general tendencies.

The network origins of aggregate fluctuations

This paper argues that in the presence of intersectoral input-output linkages, microeconomicidiosyncratic shocks may lead to aggregate fluctuations. In particular, itshows that, as the economy becomes more disaggregated, the rate at which aggregatevolatility decays is determined by the structure of the network capturing such linkages.Our main results provide a characterization of this relationship in terms of the importanceof different sectors as suppliers to their immediate customers as well as theirrole as indirect suppliers to chains of downstream sectors. Such higher-order interconnectionscapture the possibility of "cascade effects" whereby productivity shocks to asector propagate not only to its immediate downstream customers, but also indirectlyto the rest of the economy. Our results highlight that sizable aggregate volatility isobtained from sectoral idiosyncratic shocks only if there exists significant asymmetryin the roles that sectors play as suppliers to others, and that the "sparseness" of theinput-output matrix is unrelated to the nature of aggregate fluctuations.

Has the Euro-Mediterranean partnership affected Mediterranean business cycles?

We date turning points of the reference cycle for 19 Mediterranean countries andanalyze their structure and interdependences. Fluctuations are volatile and not highlycorrelated across countries; recessions are deep but asynchronous making average outputlosses in the area limited. Heterogeneities across countries and regions are substantial.Mediterranean cycles are time varying but their evolution is not linked withthe Euro-Mediterranean partnership process. The concordance of cyclical fluctuationsis poorly related to trade and financial linkages and to their evolution over time.

Aggregate fluctuations and the network structure of intersectoral trade

This paper analyzes the flow of intermediate inputs across sectors by adopting a network perspective on sectoral interactions. I apply these tools to show how fluctuationsin aggregate economic activity can be obtained from independent shocks to individualsectors. First, I characterize the network structure of input trade in the U.S. On thedemand side, a typical sector relies on a small number of key inputs and sectors arehomogeneous in this respect. However, in their role as input-suppliers sectors do differ:many specialized input suppliers coexist alongside general purpose sectors functioningas hubs to the economy. I then develop a model of intersectoral linkages that can reproduce these connectivity features. In a standard multisector setup, I use this modelto provide analytical expressions linking aggregate volatility to the network structureof input trade. I show that the presence of sectoral hubs - by coupling productiondecisions across sectors - leads to fluctuations in aggregates.

On the sources of business cycles in the G-7

This paper examines sources of cyclical movements in output, inflation and the term structure of interest rates. It employs a novel identification approach which uses the sign of the cross correlation function in response to shocks to catalog orthogonal disturbances. We find that demand shocks are the dominant source output, inflation and term structure fluctuations in six of the G-7 countries. Within the class of demand disturbances, nominal shocks are dominant, but their importance declined after 1982. Furthermore, there are no significant differences in the proportion of term structure variability explained by different structural sources at different horizons.

Does money matter in shaping domestic business cycles? An international investigation (with appendices)

We study the contribution of money to business cycle fluctuations in the US,the UK, Japan, and the Euro area using a small scale structural monetary business cycle model. Constrained likelihood-based estimates of the parameters areprovided and time instabilities analyzed. Real balances are statistically importantfor output and inflation fluctuations. Their contribution changes over time. Models giving money no role provide a distorted representation of the sources of cyclicalfluctuations, of the transmission of shocks and of the events of the last 40 years.

ClubMed? Cyclical fluctuations in the Mediterranean basin

We investigate macroeconomic fluctuations in the Mediterranean basin, their similarities and convergence. A model with four indicators, roughly covering theWest, the East and the Middle East and the North Africa portions of theMediterranean, characterizes well the historical experience since the early 1980.Idiosyncratic causes still dominate domestic cyclical fluctuations in many countries. Convergence and divergence coexist are local and transitory. The cyclicaloutlook for the next few years is rosier for the East than for the West.

Business cycles, unemployment insurance and the calibration of matching models

This paper theoretically and empirically documents a puzzle that arises when an RBC economy with a job matching function is used to model unemployment. The standard model can generate sufficiently large cyclical fluctuations in unemployment, or a sufficiently small response of unemployment to labor market policies, but it cannot do both. Variable search and separation, finite UI benefit duration, efficiency wages, and capital all fail to resolve this puzzle. However, either sticky wages or match-specific productivity shocks can improve the model's performance by making the firm's flow of surplus more procyclical, which makes hiring more procyclical too.

Endogenous business cycles and stabilization policies

The paper reports results on the effects of stylized stabilization policies on endogenously created fluctuations. A simple monetary model with intertemporally optimizing agents is considered. Fluctuations in output may occur due to fluctuations in labor supply which are again caused by volatile expectations which are ``self fulfilling'', i.e. correct given the model. It turns out that stabilization policies that are sufficiently countercyclical in the sense that government spending (on transfers or demand) depends sufficiently strongly negatively on GNP-increases can stabilize the economy at a monetary steadystate for an arbitrarily low degree of distortion of that steady state. Such stabilization has unambiguously good welfare effects and can be achieved without features such as positive lump sum taxation or negative income taxation as part of the stabilization policy.