The Black Box of Business Dynamics

Research in business dynamics has been advancing rapidly in the last years but the translation of the new knowledge to industrial policy design is slow. One striking aspect in the policy area is that although research and analysis do not identify the existence of an specific optimal rate of business creation and business exit, governments everywhere have adopted business start-up support programs with the implicit principle that the more the better. The purpose of this article is to contribute to understand the implications of the available research for policy design. Economic analysis has identified firm heterogeneity as being the most salient characteristic of industrial dynamics, and so a better knowledge of the different types of entrepreneur, their behavior and their specific contribution to innovation and growth would enable us to see into the ‘black box’ of business dynamics and improve the design of appropriate public policies. The empirical analysis performed here shows that not all new business have the same impact on relevant economic variables, and that self-employment is of quite a different economic nature to that of firms with employees. It is argued that public programs should not promote indiscriminate entry but rather give priority to able entrants with survival capacities. Survival of entrants is positively related to their size at birth. Innovation and investment improve the likelihood of survival of new manufacturing start-ups. Investment in R&D increases the risk of failure in new firms, although it improves the competitiveness of incumbents.

Evaluation of a revision of the BSPcast decision support system for control of brown spot of pear

Control of brown spot of pear requires fungicide treatments of pear trees during the growing season. Scheduling fungicide sprays with the Brown spot of pear forecasting system (BSPcast) provides significantfungicide savings but does not increase the efficacy of disease control. Modifications in BSPcast wereintroduced in order to increase system performance. The changes consisted of: (1) the use of a daily infectionrisk (Rm≥0.2) instead of the 3-day cumulative risk (CR≥0.4) to guide the fungicide scheduling, and (2) theinclusion of the effect of relative humidity during interrupted wetness periods. Trials were performed during2 years in an experimental pear orchard in Spain. The modifications introduced did not result in increaseddisease control efficacy, compared with the original BSPcast system. In one year, no reduction in the numberof fungicide applications was obtained using the modified BSPcast system in comparison to the original system, but in the second year the number of treatments was reduced from 15 to 13. The original BSPcast model overestimated the daily infection risk in 6.5% of days with wetness periods with low relative humidity during the wetness interruption, and in these cases the modified version was more adequate

A nonlinear threshold model for the dependence of extremes of stationary sequences

One of the main implications of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) is that expected future returns on financial assets are not predictable if investors are risk neutral. In this paper we argue that financial time series offer more information than that this hypothesis seems to supply. In particular we postulate that runs of very large returns can be predictable for small time periods. In order to prove this we propose a TAR(3,1)-GARCH(1,1) model that is able to describe two different types of extreme events: a first type generated by large uncertainty regimes where runs of extremes are not predictable and a second type where extremes come from isolated dread/joy events. This model is new in the literature in nonlinear processes. Its novelty resides on two features of the model that make it different from previous TAR methodologies. The regimes are motivated by the occurrence of extreme values and the threshold variable is defined by the shock affecting the process in the preceding period. In this way this model is able to uncover dependence and clustering of extremes in high as well as in low volatility periods. This model is tested with data from General Motors stocks prices corresponding to two crises that had a substantial impact in financial markets worldwide; the Black Monday of October 1987 and September 11th, 2001. By analyzing the periods around these crises we find evidence of statistical significance of our model and thereby of predictability of extremes for September 11th but not for Black Monday. These findings support the hypotheses of a big negative event producing runs of negative returns in the first case, and of the burst of a worldwide stock market bubble in the second example. JEL classification: C12; C15; C22; C51 Keywords and Phrases: asymmetries, crises, extreme values, hypothesis testing, leverage effect, nonlinearities, threshold models

A system to evaluate the accuracy of a visual mosaicking methodology

When underwater vehicles navigate close to the ocean floor, computer vision techniques can be applied to obtain motion estimates. A complete system to create visual mosaics of the seabed is described in this paper. Unfortunately, the accuracy of the constructed mosaic is difficult to evaluate. The use of a laboratory setup to obtain an accurate error measurement is proposed. The system consists on a robot arm carrying a downward looking camera. A pattern formed by a white background and a matrix of black dots uniformly distributed along the surveyed scene is used to find the exact image registration parameters. When the robot executes a trajectory (simulating the motion of a submersible), an image sequence is acquired by the camera. The estimated motion computed from the encoders of the robot is refined by detecting, to subpixel accuracy, the black dots of the image sequence, and computing the 2D projective transform which relates two consecutive images. The pattern is then substituted by a poster of the sea floor and the trajectory is executed again, acquiring the image sequence used to test the accuracy of the mosaicking system

A Supersymmetric black ring

A new supersymmetric black hole solution of five-dimensional supergravity is presented. It has an event horizon of topology S1 X S2. This is the first example of a supersymmetric, asymptotically flat black hole of nonspherical topology. The solution is uniquely specified by its electric charge and two independent angular momenta. These conserved charges can be arbitrarily close, but not exactly equal, to those of a supersymmetric black hole of spherical topology.

Higher-dimensional rotating charged black holes

Using the blackfold approach, we study new classes of higher-dimensional rotating black holes with electric charges and string dipoles, in theories of gravity coupled to a 2-form or 3-form field strength and to a dilaton with arbitrary coupling. The method allows to describe not only black holes with large angular momenta, but also other regimes that include charged black holes near extremality with slow rotation. We construct explicit examples of electric rotating black holes of dilatonic and non-dilatonic Einstein-Maxwell theory, with horizons of spherical and non-spherical topology. We also find new families of solutions with string dipoles, including a new class of prolate black rings. Whenever there are exact solutions that we can compare to, their properties in the appropriate regime are reproduced precisely by our solutions. The analysis of blackfolds with string charges requires the formulation of the dynamics of anisotropic fluids with conserved string-number currents, which is new, and is carried out in detail for perfect fluids. Finally, our results indicate new instabilities of near-extremal, slowly rotating charged black holes, and motivate conjectures about topological constraints on dipole hair.

A Be-type star with a black-hole companion

Stellar-mass black holes have all been discovered through X-ray emission, which arises from the accretion of gas from their binary companions (this gas is either stripped from low-mass stars or supplied as winds from massive ones). Binary evolution models also predict the existence of black holes accreting from the equatorial envelope of rapidly spinning Be-type stars (stars of the Be type are hot blue irregular variables showing characteristic spectral emission lines of hydrogen). Of the ~80 Be X-ray binaries known in the Galaxy, however, only pulsating neutron stars have been found as companions. A black hole was formally allowed as a solution for the companion to the Be star MWC 656 (also known as HD 215227), although that was based on a single radial velocity curve of the Be star, a mistaken spectral classification and rough estimates of the inclination angle. Here we report observations of an accretion disk line mirroring the orbit of the Be star. This, together with an improved radial velocity curve of the Be star through fitting sharp Fe II profiles from the equatorial disk, and a refined Be classification (to that of a B1.5-B2 III star), reveals a black hole of 3.8 to 6.9 solar masses orbiting MWC 656, the candidate counterpart of the gamma-ray source AGL J2241+4454. The black hole is X-ray quiescent and fed by a radiatively inefficient accretion flow giving a luminosity less than 1.6 x 10-7 times the Eddington luminosity. This implies that Be binaries with black-hole companions are difficult to detect by conventional X-ray surveys.

Filtrat de Pàgines Web

Aquesta memòria sintetitza el treball de desenvolupament d¿una aplicació per realitzar el filtrat de pàgines web.Els objectius principals del projecte han estat d¿una banda obtenir una aplicació que permeti realitzar el filtrat i de l¿altra aprofitar el projecte per construir un model complet de desenvolupament de programari per a industrialitzar futurs projectes. En quant a la metodologia, s¿ha emprat el cicle de vida RUP de forma incremental en les tres parts de l¿aplicació, (proxy, filtres i log). En la seqüència de quatre fases s¿executen iterativament una sèrie de processos. Pel que fa al producte obtingut, es tracta d¿un servidor proxy, que realitza la funció de filtrat de pàgines web, mitjançant dues utilitats, ¿llista negra¿ d¿adreces i ¿llista negra¿ de continguts, ames de disposar d¿un registre d¿activitat log.

Large D gravity and low D strings

We show that in the limit of a large number of dimensions a wide class of nonextremal neutral black holes has a universal near-horizon limit. The limiting geometry is the two-dimensional black hole of string theory with a two-dimensional target space. Its conformal symmetry explains the properties of massless scalars found recently in the large-D limit. For black branes with string charges, the near-horizon geometry is that of the three-dimensional black strings of Horne and Horowitz. The analogies between the α′ expansion in string theory and the large-D expansion in gravity suggest a possible effective string description of the large-D limit of black holes. We comment on applications to several subjects, in particular to the problem of critical collapse.