New horizons for black holes and branes

We initiate a systematic scan of the landscape of black holes in any spacetime dimension using the recently proposed blackfold effective worldvolume theory. We focus primarily on asymptotically flat stationary vacuum solutions, where we uncover large classes of new black holes. These include helical black strings and black rings, black odd-spheres, for which the horizon is a product of a large and a small sphere, and non-uniform black cylinders. More exotic possibilities are also outlined. The blackfold description recovers correctly the ultraspinning Myers-Perry black holes as ellipsoidal even-ball configurations where the velocity field approaches the speed of light at the boundary of the ball. Helical black ring solutions provide the first instance of asymptotically flat black holes in more than four dimensions with a single spatial U(1) isometry. They also imply infinite rational non-uniqueness in ultraspinning regimes, where they maximize the entropy among all stationary single-horizon solutions. Moreover, static blackfolds are possible with the geometry of minimal surfaces. The absence of compact embedded minimal surfaces in Euclidean space is consistent with the uniqueness theorem of static black holes

New horizons for black holes and branes

We initiate a systematic scan of the landscape of black holes in any spacetime dimension using the recently proposed blackfold effective worldvolume theory. We focus primarily on asymptotically flat stationary vacuum solutions, where we uncover large classes of new black holes. These include helical black strings and black rings, black odd-spheres, for which the horizon is a product of a large and a small sphere, and non-uniform black cylinders. More exotic possibilities are also outlined. The blackfold description recovers correctly the ultraspinning Myers-Perry black holes as ellipsoidal even-ball configurations where the velocity field approaches the speed of light at the boundary of the ball. Helical black ring solutions provide the first instance of asymptotically flat black holes in more than four dimensions with a single spatial U(1) isometry. They also imply infinite rational non-uniqueness in ultraspinning regimes, where they maximize the entropy among all stationary single-horizon solutions. Moreover, static blackfolds are possible with the geometry of minimal surfaces. The absence of compact embedded minimal surfaces in Euclidean space is consistent with the uniqueness theorem of static black holes

Heterogeneous dynamics, aggregation and the persistence of economic shocks

It has been recently emphasized that, if individuals have heterogeneous dynamics, estimates of shock persistence based on aggregate data are significatively higher than those derived from its disaggregate counterpart. However, a careful examination of the implications of this statement on the various tools routinely employed to measure persistence is missing in the literature. This paper formally examines this issue. We consider a disaggregate linear model with heterogeneous dynamics and compare the values of several measures of persistence across aggregation levels. Interestingly, we show that the average persistence of aggregate shocks, as measured by the impulse response function (IRF) of the aggregate model or by the average of the individual IRFs, is identical on all horizons. This result remains true even in situations where the units are (short-memory) stationary but the aggregate process is long-memory or even nonstationary. In contrast, other popular persistence measures, such as the sum of the autoregressive coefficients or the largest autoregressive root, tend to be higher the higher the aggregation level. We argue, however, that this should be seen more as an undesirable property of these measures than as evidence of different average persistence across aggregation levels. The results are illustrated in an application using U.S. inflation data.

Interaccions arbre-arbust al límit superior del bosc i efectes de gradients bioclimàtics en la vegetació

Durant el periode d’elaboració d’aquesta tesi hem aprofundit en el coneixement dels factors que controlen les dinàmiques espacio-temporals del límit superior del bosc. Aquest ecotò se situa entre el límit superior del bosc i els prats alpins i és susceptible a canvis ambientals, fet que provoca que fluctuï altitudinalment i latitudinalment en funció d’aquests canvis. Els motius d’aquesta dinàmica s’ha estudiat sovint des d’un punt de vista climàtic, però mai fins ara s’havia estudiat des d’un punt de vista de les interaccions entre organismes. Per aquest fet hem estat evaluant l’efecte de les interaccions planta-planta en la regulació de la dinàmica supraforestal. L’estudi l’hem emmarcat en un context alpí (als Pirineus Catalans) i en un context subàrtic (Lapònia, Suècia), fet que ens ha permès fer un estudi comparatiu en dos ecotons contrastats però homòlegs ecològicament. Hem desenvolupat una sèrie d’experiments considerant diversos factors (augment de temperatura, quantitat de nutrients, presència d’arbust, posició en l’ecotò); en les dues zones d’estudi hem fet una plantació de plançons dels arbres formadors del límit del bosc en les diverses situacions derivades de la combinació d’aquests factors, i hem fet el seguiment fenològic dels plançons durant tres periodes de creixement. Els resultats dels experiments ens han permès veure que les interaccions entre organismes tenen una gran importància en la regulació de la dinàmica supraforestal, tant als Pirineus com a Lapònia. Les interaccions planta-planta i planta-herbívors determinen el reclutament de plançons i per tant l’estructuració de les comunitats supraforestals. Per altra banda, la posició en l’ecotò evidencia la presència d’un gradient bioclimàtic; les manipulacions ambientals de temperatura i nutrients originen una resposta generalment positiva en el desenvolupament dels plançons, indicant que canvis en aquestes variables pot suposar alteracions notables de l’estructura forestal del límit del bosc. Per altra banda en aquest projecte també hem aprofundit en temes relacionats amb l'efecte dels gradients altitudinals en la distribució de plantes vasculars als Pirineus Catalans.

Interaccions arbre-arbust al límit superior del bosc i efectes de gradients bioclimàtics en la vegetació

Durant el periode d’elaboració d’aquesta tesi hem aprofundit en el coneixement dels factors que controlen les dinàmiques espacio-temporals del límit superior del bosc. Aquest ecotò se situa entre el límit superior del bosc i els prats alpins i és susceptible a canvis ambientals, fet que provoca que fluctuï altitudinalment i latitudinalment en funció d’aquests canvis. Els motius d’aquesta dinàmica s’ha estudiat sovint des d’un punt de vista climàtic, però mai fins ara s’havia estudiat des d’un punt de vista de les interaccions entre organismes. Per aquest fet hem estat evaluant l’efecte de les interaccions planta-planta en la regulació de la dinàmica supraforestal. L’estudi l’hem emmarcat en un context alpí (als Pirineus Catalans) i en un context subàrtic (Lapònia, Suècia), fet que ens ha permès fer un estudi comparatiu en dos ecotons contrastats però homòlegs ecològicament. Hem desenvolupat una sèrie d’experiments considerant diversos factors (augment de temperatura, quantitat de nutrients, presència d’arbust, posició en l’ecotò); en les dues zones d’estudi hem fet una plantació de plançons dels arbres formadors del límit del bosc en les diverses situacions derivades de la combinació d’aquests factors, i hem fet el seguiment fenològic dels plançons durant tres periodes de creixement. Els resultats dels experiments ens han permès veure que les interaccions entre organismes tenen una gran importància en la regulació de la dinàmica supraforestal, tant als Pirineus com a Lapònia. Les interaccions planta-planta i planta-herbívors determinen el reclutament de plançons i per tant l’estructuració de les comunitats supraforestals. Per altra banda, la posició en l’ecotò evidencia la presència d’un gradient bioclimàtic; les manipulacions ambientals de temperatura i nutrients originen una resposta generalment positiva en el desenvolupament dels plançons, indicant que canvis en aquestes variables pot suposar alteracions notables de l’estructura forestal del límit del bosc. Per altra banda en aquest projecte també hem aprofundit en temes relacionats amb l'efecte dels gradients altitudinals en la distribució de plantes vasculars als Pirineus Catalans.

La voz flamenca del violín

Este proyecto representa una aproximación al flamenco desde la música clásica, y más concretamente desde el punto de vista violinístico. Se trata de una visión personal sobre los elementos técnicos e interpretativos a seguir para adentrarnos en la estilística flamenca. Ampliar los conocimientos musicales para así enriquecernos y crecer, tanto como personas como músicos. De la fusión musical emergen nuevos horizontes con los que poder expresarnos. Esto nos abre las puertas a la creatividad.

Measuring time-varying economic fears with consumption-based stochastic discount factors

This paper analyzes empirically the volatility of consumption-based stochastic discount factors as a measure of implicit economic fears by studying its relationship with future economic and stock market cycles. Time-varying economic fears seem to be well captured by the volatility of stochastic discount factors. In particular, the volatility of recursive utility-based stochastic discount factor with contemporaneous growth explains between 9 and 34 percent of future changes in industrial production at short and long horizons respectively. They also explain ex-ante uncertainty and risk aversion. However, future stock market cycles are better explained by a similar stochastic discount factor with long-run consumption growth. This specification of the stochastic discount factor presents higher volatility and lower pricing errors than the specification with contemporaneous consumption growth.

On the sources of business cycles in the G-7

This paper examines sources of cyclical movements in output, inflation and the term structure of interest rates. It employs a novel identification approach which uses the sign of the cross correlation function in response to shocks to catalog orthogonal disturbances. We find that demand shocks are the dominant source output, inflation and term structure fluctuations in six of the G-7 countries. Within the class of demand disturbances, nominal shocks are dominant, but their importance declined after 1982. Furthermore, there are no significant differences in the proportion of term structure variability explained by different structural sources at different horizons.

Combining multivariate density forecasts using predictive criteria

This paper combines multivariate density forecasts of output growth, inflationand interest rates from a suite of models. An out-of-sample weighting scheme based onthe predictive likelihood as proposed by Eklund and Karlsson (2005) and Andersson andKarlsson (2007) is used to combine the models. Three classes of models are considered: aBayesian vector autoregression (BVAR), a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR)and a medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. Using Australiandata, we find that, at short forecast horizons, the Bayesian VAR model is assignedthe most weight, while at intermediate and longer horizons the factor model is preferred.The DSGE model is assigned little weight at all horizons, a result that can be attributedto the DSGE model producing density forecasts that are very wide when compared withthe actual distribution of observations. While a density forecast evaluation exercise revealslittle formal evidence that the optimally combined densities are superior to those from thebest-performing individual model, or a simple equal-weighting scheme, this may be a resultof the short sample available.

A medium-scale open economy model of Australia

We estimate an open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE)model of Australia with a number of shocks, frictions and rigidities, matching alarge number of observable time series. We find that both foreign and domesticshocks are important drivers of the Australian business cycle.We also find that theinitial impact on inflation of an increase in demand for Australian commoditiesis negative, due to an improvement in the real exchange rate, though there is apersistent positive effect on inflation that dominates at longer horizons.

DietPlan : Desenvolupament d’un assistent nutricional online

Avui en dia, Internet permet ampliar l'horitzó d'alguns serveis, donant-los un altre caire més versàtil i còmode pel client final. El fet de posar a disposició del client un servei com el de la dietètica i la nutrició 24 hores al dia i 7 dies a la setmana, sense que perdi el seu valor i continui sent individualitzat, ofereix al client un coaching en aquest terreny i, al negoci, una altra visió del mateix. Així doncs, el principal objectiu és desenvolupar un lloc web, on l'usuari final pugui rebre una valoració dietètica i nutricional del seu estat actual de manera automàtica i, a la vegada, se li aportin els punts on pot millorar i una dieta escaient. Tot i així, la figura del professional en dietètica participarà del procés, ja que sempre existiran casos més complicats que d'altres.

Firmground ichnofacies recording high-frequency marine flooding events (Langhian transgression, Vallè-Penedès Basin, Spain)

The decapod burrow Spongeliomorpha sudolica occurs associated with transgressive firmgrounds in the transition between Aragonian continental red beds and Langhian marine units in some of the inner sectors of the Vallès-Penedès Basin. This ichnospecies designates branching burrow systems with scratch marks in the walls produced by marine crustacean decapods. The occurrence of Spongeliomorpha represents an example of theGlossifungites ichnofacies. The several horizons where the traces are found are intercalated with continental red beds a few meters below the main transgressive surface, which is overlain by fossiliferous marine sandstones. The Spongeliomorpha-bioturbated layers record short, high frequency marine flooding surfaces that may be related either to actual sea-level changes or to variations in tectonic subsidence or sediment input. In any case, these flooding events punctuated the early phases of the Langhian transgression in the basin.

Supersymmetric black rings and three-charge supertubes

We present supergravity solutions for 1/8-supersymmetric black supertubes with three charges and three dipoles. Their reduction to five dimensions yields supersymmetric black rings with regular horizons and two independent angular momenta. The general solution contains seven independent parameters and provides the first example of nonuniqueness of supersymmetric black holes. In ten dimensions, the solutions can be realized as D1-D5-P black supertubes. We also present a worldvolume construction of a supertube that exhibits three dipoles explicitly. This description allows an arbitrary cross section but captures only one of the angular momenta.

Siluro-Devonian graptolite stratigraphy of the Catalonian Coastal Ranges

Two facies characterize the Silurian and lower Devonian of the Catalonian Coastal Ranges, namely euxinic and pelagic carbonate facies. The first, is represented by black shales in which the atavus, acinaces, cyphus, triangulatus, convolutus, ?sedgwickii, ellesae and tumescens zones have been recognized. The graptolite succesion is far from complete on present evidence, but this is probably due to unfavorable environmental (taphonomic) conditions. This facies is similar to that prevailing throughout the Iberian massif and most of western Europe. The pelagic carbonate facies is peculiar to the Pridoli and lower Devonian and corresponds to the facies type prevailing in the Western Mediterranean Area. It is characterized by the nodular texture of limestones and marls, with all gradations between nodular limestones, marls and slates. Massive nodular limestone, occur in the lower part of the sequence (La Creu Formation) while the alternation of limestones, marls and slates charaterizes the upper part (Olorda Formation). Orthoconic cephalopds, crinoids, conodonts and tentaculites are the most common fossils present; graptolites occur in some shale horizons in the lower part of the Olorda Formation. These graptolites give strong indications of the uniformis and hercynicus zones (Lochkovian). The uppermost part of the sequence has not provided any graptolite fauna, but according their dacrioconarid fauna it corresponds probably to the Pragian.

The changing relationship between commodity prices and equity prices in commodity exporting

We explore the linkage between equity and commodity markets, focusing in particular on its evolution over time. We document that a country's equity market valuehas significant out-of-sample predictive ability for the future global commodity priceindex for several primary commodity-exporting countries. The out-of-sample predictive ability of the equity market appears around 2000s. The results are robust to usingseveral control variables as well as firm-level equity data. Finally, our results indicatethat exchange rates are a better predictor of commodity prices than equity markets,especially at very short horizons.