Prediction of the economic cost of individual long-term care in the Spanish population

Pensions together with savings and investments during active life are key elements of retirement planning. Motivation for personal choices about the standard of living, bequest and the replacement ratio of pension with respect to last salary income must be considered. This research contributes to the financial planning by helping to quantify long-term care economic needs. We estimate life expectancy from retirement age onwards. The economic cost of care per unit of service is linked to the expected time of needed care and the intensity of required services. The expected individual cost of long-term care from an onset of dependence is estimated separately for men and women. Assumptions on the mortality of the dependent people compared to the general population are introduced. Parameters defining eligibility for various forms of coverage by the universal public social care of the welfare system are addressed. The impact of the intensity of social services on individual predictions is assessed, and a partial coverage by standard private insurance products is also explored. Data were collected by the Spanish Institute of Statistics in two surveys conducted on the general Spanish population in 1999 and in 2008. Official mortality records and life table trends were used to create realistic scenarios for longevity. We find empirical evidence that the public long-term care system in Spain effectively mitigates the risk of incurring huge lifetime costs. We also find that the most vulnerable categories are citizens with moderate disabilities that do not qualify to obtain public social care support. In the Spanish case, the trends between 1999 and 2008 need to be further explored.

A quality-based cost distribution charging scheme for QoS multicast networks

This paper presents a new charging scheme for cost distribution along a point-to-multipoint connection when destination nodes are responsible for the cost. The scheme focus on QoS considerations and a complete range of choices is presented. These choices go from a safe scheme for the network operator to a fair scheme to the customer. The in-between cases are also covered. Specific and general problems, like the incidence of users disconnecting dynamically is also discussed. The aim of this scheme is to encourage the users to disperse the resource demand instead of having a large number of direct connections to the source of the data, which would result in a higher than necessary bandwidth use from the source. This would benefit the overall performance of the network. The implementation of this task must balance between the necessity to offer a competitive service and the risk of not recovering such service cost for the network operator. Throughout this paper reference to multicast charging is made without making any reference to any specific category of service. The proposed scheme is also evaluated with the criteria set proposed in the European ATM charging project CANCAN

A finite-population revenue management model and a risk-ratio procedure for the joint estimation of population size and parameters

Many dynamic revenue management models divide the sale period into a finite number of periods T and assume, invoking a fine-enough grid of time, that each period sees at most one booking request. These Poisson-type assumptions restrict the variability of the demand in the model, but researchers and practitioners were willing to overlook this for the benefit of tractability of the models. In this paper, we criticize this model from another angle. Estimating the discrete finite-period model poses problems of indeterminacy and non-robustness: Arbitrarily fixing T leads to arbitrary control values and on the other hand estimating T from data adds an additional layer of indeterminacy. To counter this, we first propose an alternate finite-population model that avoids this problem of fixing T and allows a wider range of demand distributions, while retaining the useful marginal-value properties of the finite-period model. The finite-population model still requires jointly estimating market size and the parameters of the customer purchase model without observing no-purchases. Estimation of market-size when no-purchases are unobservable has rarely been attempted in the marketing or revenue management literature. Indeed, we point out that it is akin to the classical statistical problem of estimating the parameters of a binomial distribution with unknown population size and success probability, and hence likely to be challenging. However, when the purchase probabilities are given by a functional form such as a multinomial-logit model, we propose an estimation heuristic that exploits the specification of the functional form, the variety of the offer sets in a typical RM setting, and qualitative knowledge of arrival rates. Finally we perform simulations to show that the estimator is very promising in obtaining unbiased estimates of population size and the model parameters.

Cost-effectiveness of early detection of breast cancer in Catalonia (Spain)

Background: Breast cancer (BC) causes more deaths than any other cancer among women in Catalonia. Early detection has contributed to the observed decline in BC mortality. However, there is debate on the optimal screening strategy. We performed an economic evaluation of 20 screening strategies taking into account the cost over time of screening and subsequent medical costs, including diagnostic confirmation, initial treatment, follow-up and advanced care. Methods: We used a probabilistic model to estimate the effect and costs over time of each scenario. The effect was measured as years of life (YL), quality-adjusted life years (QALY), and lives extended (LE). Costs of screening and treatment were obtained from the Early Detection Program and hospital databases of the IMAS-Hospital del Mar in Barcelona. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was used to compare the relative costs and outcomes of different scenarios. Results: Strategies that start at ages 40 or 45 and end at 69 predominate when the effect is measured as YL or QALYs. Biennial strategies 50-69, 45-69 or annual 45-69, 40-69 and 40-74 were selected as cost-effective for both effect measures (YL or QALYs). The ICER increases considerably when moving from biennial to annual scenarios. Moving from no screening to biennial 50-69 years represented an ICER of 4,469€ per QALY. Conclusions: A reduced number of screening strategies have been selected for consideration by researchers, decision makers and policy planners. Mathematical models are useful to assess the impact and costs of BC screening in a specific geographical area.

Cost-effectiveness of a community pharmacist intervention in patients with depression: a randomized controlled trial (PRODEFAR study)

Background: Non-adherence to antidepressants generates higher costs for the treatment of depression. Little is known about the cost-effectiveness of pharmacist's interventions aimed at improving adherence to antidepressants. The study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a community pharmacist intervention in comparison with usual care in depressed patients initiating treatment with antidepressants in primary care. Methods: Patients were recruited by general practitioners and randomized to community pharmacist intervention (87) that received an educational intervention and usual care (92). Adherence to antidepressants, clinical symptoms, Quality-Adjusted Life-Years (QALYs), use of healthcare services and productivity losses were measured at baseline, 3 and 6 months. Results: There were no significant differences between groups in costs or effects. From a societal perspective, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for the community pharmacist intervention compared with usual care was 1,866 for extra adherent patient and 9,872 per extra QALY. In terms of remission of depressive symptoms, the usual care dominated the community pharmacist intervention. If willingness to pay (WTP) is 30,000 per extra adherent patient, remission of symptoms or QALYs, the probability of the community pharmacist intervention being cost-effective was 0.71, 0.46 and 0.75, respectively (societal perspective). From a healthcare perspective, the probability of the community pharmacist intervention being cost-effective in terms of adherence, QALYs and remission was of 0.71, 0.76 and 0.46, respectively, if WTP is 30,000. Conclusion: A brief community pharmacist intervention addressed to depressed patients initiating antidepressant treatment showed a probability of being cost-effective of 0.71 and 0.75 in terms of improvement of adherence and QALYs, respectively, when compared to usual care. Regular implementation of the community pharmacist intervention is not recommended.

Prediction of the economic cost of individual long-term care in the Spanish population

Pensions together with savings and investments during active life are key elements of retirement planning. Motivation for personal choices about the standard of living, bequest and the replacement ratio of pension with respect to last salary income must be considered. This research contributes to the financial planning by helping to quantify long-term care economic needs. We estimate life expectancy from retirement age onwards. The economic cost of care per unit of service is linked to the expected time of needed care and the intensity of required services. The expected individual cost of long-term care from an onset of dependence is estimated separately for men and women. Assumptions on the mortality of the dependent people compared to the general population are introduced. Parameters defining eligibility for various forms of coverage by the universal public social care of the welfare system are addressed. The impact of the intensity of social services on individual predictions is assessed, and a partial coverage by standard private insurance products is also explored. Data were collected by the Spanish Institute of Statistics in two surveys conducted on the general Spanish population in 1999 and in 2008. Official mortality records and life table trends were used to create realistic scenarios for longevity. We find empirical evidence that the public long-term care system in Spain effectively mitigates the risk of incurring huge lifetime costs. We also find that the most vulnerable categories are citizens with moderate disabilities that do not qualify to obtain public social care support. In the Spanish case, the trends between 1999 and 2008 need to be further explored.

The use of cost per life year gained as a measurement of cost-effectiveness in Spain: a systematic review of recent publications

The objective of this study was to evaluate the methodological characteristics of cost-effectiveness evaluations carried out in Spain, since 1990, which include LYG as an outcome to measure the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. METHODS: A systematic review of published studies was conducted describing their characteristics and methodological quality. We analyse the cost per LYG results in relation with a commonly accepted Spanish cost-effectiveness threshold and the possible relation with the cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained when they both were calculated for the same economic evaluation. RESULTS: A total of 62 economic evaluations fulfilled the selection criteria, 24 of them including the cost per QALY gained result as well. The methodological quality of the studies was good (55%) or very good (26%). A total of 124 cost per LYG results were obtained with a mean ratio of 49,529 and a median of 11,490 (standard deviation of 183,080). Since 2003, a commonly accepted Spanish threshold has been referenced by 66% of studies. A significant correlation was found between the cost per LYG and cost per QALY gained results (0.89 Spearman-Rho, 0.91 Pearson). CONCLUSIONS: There is an increasing interest for economic health care evaluations in Spain, and the quality of the studies is also improving. Although a commonly accepted threshold exists, further information is needed for decision-making as well as to identify the relationship between the costs per LYG and per QALY gained.

Development of a population-based cost-effectiveness model of chronic graft versus host disease in Spain

Chronic graft-versus-host disease (cGvHD) is the leading cause of late nonrelapse mortality (transplant-related mortality) after hematopoietic stem cell transplant. Given that there are a wide range of treatment options for cGvHD, assessment of the associated costs and efficacy can help clinicians and health care providers allocate health care resources more efficiently. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of extracorporeal photopheresis (ECP) compared with rituximab (Rmb) and with imatinib (Imt) in patients with cGvHD at 5 years from the perspective of the Spanish National Health System. METHODS: The model assessed the incremental cost-effectiveness/utility ratio of ECP versus Rmb or Imt for 1000 hypothetical patients by using microsimulation cost-effectiveness techniques. Model probabilities were obtained from the literature. Treatment pathways and adverse events were evaluated taking clinical opinion and published reports into consideration. Local data on costs (2010 Euros) and health care resources utilization were validated by the clinical authors. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were used to assess the robustness of the model. RESULTS: The greater efficacy of ECP resulted in a gain of 0.011 to 0.024 quality-adjusted life-year in the first year and 0.062 to 0.094 at year 5 compared with Rmb or Imt. The results showed that the higher acquisition cost of ECP versus Imt was compensated for at 9 months by greater efficacy; this higher cost was partially compensated for ( 517) by year 5 versus Rmb. After 9 months, ECP was dominant (cheaper and more effective) compared with Imt. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of ECP versus Rmb was 29,646 per life-year gained and 24,442 per quality-adjusted life-year gained at year 2.5. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis confirmed the results. The main study limitation was that to assess relative treatment effects, only small studies were available for indirect comparison. CONCLUSION: ECP as a third-line therapy for cGvHD is a more cost-effective strategy than Rmb or Imt.

Parental body condition does not correlate with offspring sex-ratio in Cory's shearwater

We analyzed offspring sex ratio variation in Mediterranean Cory's Shearwater (Calonectris d. diomedea) during two consecutive breeding seasons in two colonies. We test for differential breeding conditions between years and colonies looking at several breeding parameters and parental condition. We then explored the relationship between offspring sex ratio and parental condition and breeding parameters. This species is sexually dimorphic with males larger and heavier than females; consequently we expected differential parental cost in rearing sexes, or a greater sensitivity of male chicks to adverse conditions, which may lead to biased sex ratios. Chicks were sexed molecularly by the amplification of the CHD genes. Offspring sex ratio did not differ from parity, either at hatching or fledging, regardless of the colony or year. However, parental body condition and breeding parameters such as egg size and breeding success were different between years and colonies. Nevertheless, neither nestling mortality nor body condition at fledging varied between years or colonies, suggesting that male and female chicks were probably not differentially affected by variability in breeding conditions.

Operational Cost Reduction in WDM Networks using Lighttours

Wavelength division multiplexing (WDM) networks have been adopted as a near-future solution for the broadband Internet. In previous work we proposed a new architecture, named enhanced grooming (G+), that extends the capabilities of traditional optical routes (lightpaths). In this paper, we compare the operational expenditures incurred by routing a set of demands using lightpaths with that of lighttours. The comparison is done by solving an integer linear programming (ILP) problem based on a path formulation. Results show that, under the assumption of single-hop routing, almost 15% of the operational cost can be reduced with our architecture. In multi-hop routing the operation cost is reduced in 7.1% and at the same time the ratio of operational cost to number of optical-electro-optical conversions is reduced for our architecture. This means that ISPs could provide the same satisfaction in terms of delay to the end-user with a lower investment in the network architecture

The Cost of ownership in the governance of interfirm collaborations

This paper investigates the selection of governance forms in interfirm collaborations taking into account the predictions from transaction costs and property rights theories. Transaction costs arguments are often used to justify the introduction of hierarchical controls in collaborations, but the ownership dimension of going from “contracts” to “hierarchies” has been ignored in the past and with it the so called “costs of ownership”. The theoretical results, tested with a sample of collaborations in which participate Spanish firms, indicate that the cost of ownership may offset the benefits of hierarchical controls and therefore limit their diffusion. Evidence is also reported of possible complementarities between reputation effects and forms of ownership that go together with hierarchical controls (i.e. joint ventures), in contrast with the generally assumed substitutability between the two.

Price competition under cost uncertainty: A laboratory analysis

We study the relation between the number of firms and price-cost margins under price competition with uncertainty about competitors' costs. We present results of an experiment in which two, three and four identical firms repeatedly interact in this environment. In line with the theoretical prediction, market prices decrease with the number of firms, but on average stay above marginal costs. Pricing is less aggressive in duopolies than in triopolies and tetrapolies. However, independently from the number of firms, pricing is more aggressive than in the theoretical equilibrium. Both the absolute and the relative surpluses increase with the number of firms. Total surplus is close to the equilibrium level, since enhanced consumer surplus through lower prices is counteracted by occasional displacements of the most efficient firm in production.

Treball de camp a una colònia de xatrac comú (sterna hirundo) en Alemanya

Estudio elaborado a partir de una estancia en el Institut fur Vogelforschung. El objeto de la estancia fue participar en la campaña de campo en la colonia de Charrán común (Sterna hirundo) situada en Wilhelmshaven (Alemania), entre los meses de mayo y agosto de 2005. Esta participación se llevó a cabo bajo la dirección del Prof. Dr. Peter H. Becker y junto a su equipo. Se participó en la recogida rutinaria de datos de la colonia así como en distintas técnicas relacionadas con el presente proyecto, como el marcaje de pollos, su observación directa desde escondites y la recogida de distintas muestras biológicas. El objetivo principal era continuar con la obtención de datos para el trabajo de investigación sobre la influencia de la calidad y la condición parental en la manipulación adaptativa de la razón de sexos y la asignación por sexos. La obtención de datos se basa en la implantación de transponders en pollos, que permiten la identificación de cada charrán de por vida. La combinación de esta información con la observación directa de cebas hace de la colonia un lugar excepcional, lo que permite conocer los factores que influyen en las tendencias que existan. Sin embargo, el objetivo específico de la campaña se centraba en investigar la variabilidad individual de la respuesta inmune en los pollos de charrán en relación a un número de atributos de los propios pollos (sexo, tamaño, tasa de crecimiento, proteínas en plasma, hematocrito, carga parasitaria, carotenos en plasma, isótopos de las plumas), de los padres (fecha y tamaño de puesta, calidad parental) y de las condiciones de cría (orden de eclosión, densidad de la sub-colonia). Los resultados de estos datos obtenidos durante la campaña respaldan que existe una influencia de la condición nutricional y la calidad parental en la respuesta immune de los pollos, debida probablemente a un esfuerzo reproductivo diferencial.

The Total fiscal cost of indirect taxation: an approximation using Catalonia's recent input-output table

In this note we quantify to what extent indirect taxation influences and distorts prices. To do so we use the networked accounting structure of the most recent input-output table of Catalonia, an autonomous region of Spain, to model price formation. The role of indirect taxation is considered both from a classical value perspective and a more neoclassical flavoured one. We show that they would yield equivalent results under some basic premises. The neoclassical perspective, however, offers a bit more flexibility to distinguish among different tax figures and hence provide a clearer disaggregate picture of how an indirect tax ends up affecting, and by how much, the cost structure.