Individual prediction of automobile bodily injury claims liabilities

[spa] La mayoría de siniestros con daños corporales se liquidan mediante negociación, llegando a juicio menos del 5% de los casos. Una estrategia de negociación bien definida es, por tanto, fundamental para las compañías aseguradoras. En este artículo asumimos que la compensación monetaria concedida en juicio es la máxima cuantía que debería ser ofrecida por el asegurador en el proceso de negociación. Usando una base de datos real, implementamos un modelo log-lineal para estimar la máxima oferta de negociación. Perturbaciones no-esféricas son detectadas. Correlación ocurre cuando más de una siniestro se liquida en la misma sentencia judicial. Heterocedasticidad por grupos se debe a la influencia de la valoración del forense en la indemnización final.

Individual prediction of automobile bodily injury claims liabilities

[spa] La mayoría de siniestros con daños corporales se liquidan mediante negociación, llegando a juicio menos del 5% de los casos. Una estrategia de negociación bien definida es, por tanto, fundamental para las compañías aseguradoras. En este artículo asumimos que la compensación monetaria concedida en juicio es la máxima cuantía que debería ser ofrecida por el asegurador en el proceso de negociación. Usando una base de datos real, implementamos un modelo log-lineal para estimar la máxima oferta de negociación. Perturbaciones no-esféricas son detectadas. Correlación ocurre cuando más de una siniestro se liquida en la misma sentencia judicial. Heterocedasticidad por grupos se debe a la influencia de la valoración del forense en la indemnización final.

Forecasting the maximum compensation offer in the automobile BI claims negotiation process

Most motor bodily injury (BI) claims are settled by negotiation, with fewer than 5% of cases going to court. A well-defined negotiation strategy is thus very useful for insurance companies. In this paper we assume that the monetary compensation awarded in court is the upper amount to be offered by the insurer in the negotiation process. Using a real database, a log-linear model is implemented to estimate the maximal offer. Non-spherical disturbances are detected. Correlation occurs when various claims are settled in the same judicial verdict. Group wise heteroscedasticity is due to the influence of the forensic valuation on the final compensation amount. An alternative approximation based on generalized inference theory is applied to estimate confidence intervals on variance components, since classical interval estimates may be unreliable for datasets with unbalanced structures.

Prediction of individual automobile RBNS claim reserves in the context of Solvency II

Automobile bodily injury (BI) claims remain unsettled for a long time after the accident. The estimation of an accurate reserve for Reported But Not Settled (RBNS) claims is therefore vital for insurers. In accordance with the recommendation included in the Solvency II project (CEIOPS, 2007) a statistical model is here implemented for RBNS reserve estimation. Lognormality on empirical compensation cost data is observed for different levels of BI severity. The individual claim provision is estimated by allocating the expected mean compensation for the predicted severity of the victim’s injury, for which the upper bound is also computed. The BI severity is predicted by means of a heteroscedastic multiple choice model, because empirical evidence has found that the variability in the latent severity of injured individuals travelling by car is not constant. It is shown that this methodology can improve the accuracy of RBNS reserve estimation at all stages, as compared to the subjective assessment that has traditionally been made by practitioners.

Effects of competition over quality-adjusted price indexes: an application to the Spanish automobile market

Using a newly constructed data set, we calculate quality-adjusted price indexes after estimating hedonic price regressions from 1988 to 2004 in the Spanish automobile market. The increasing competition was favoured by the removal of trade restrictions and the special plans for the renewal of the Spanish automobile fleet. We find that the increasing degree of competition during those years led to an overall drop in automobile prices by 20 percent which implied considerable consumer gains thanks to higher market efficiency. Additionally, our results indicate that loyalty relevance and discrepancies in automobile reliability declined during those years. This is captured.

Pla especial per accidents marins a Formentera (PEPAMF)

El projecte és un Pla Especial per accidents marins a l’ illa de Formentera. El principal objectiu és estudiar el risc davant d’ accidents com l’ abocament de substàncies nocives a les costes de Formentera per accidents de bucs o d’ emissaris i estudiar també la vulnerabilitat i la perillositat. El pla pretén una millor gestió en cas d’ abocaments marins, creant així un pla d’ actuació gestionat des de l’ illa per a una més ràpida i eficient actuació. El treball està estructurat en: un estudi de l’ illa de Formentera, els factors que afecten al pla i el disseny d’ aquest pla especial

Contractual allocation of decision rights and incentives: The case of automobile distribution

We analyze empirically the allocation of rights and monetary incentives in automobile franchise contracts. These contracts substantially restrict the decision rights of dealers and grant manufacturers extensive contractual completion and enforcement powers, converting the manufacturers, de facto, in a sort of quasi-judiciary instance. Variation in the allocation of decision rights andincentive intensity is explained by the incidence of moral hazard in the relation. In particular, when the cost of dealer moral hazard is higher and the risk of manufactureropportunism is lower, manufacturers enjoy more discretion in determining the performance required from their dealers and in using mechanisms such as monitoring, termination and monetary incentives to ensure such performance is provided. We also explore the existence of interdependencies between the different elements of the system. and find some complementarities between completion and termination rights, and between monitoring rights and the intensity of incentives.

State and industry in the 1940s: The Spanish automobile industry

The decade of the 1940s was one of the darkest periods in the country's history, with years of famine, repression, general misery, and impoverishment of all aspects of national life ranging from culture to the economy. During those years plans were made to establish a Spanish motor industry once the Civil War had come to an end in 1939. It seemed a propitious moment for private enterprise and various foreign motor companies presented proposals for manufacturing their entire vehicle range, from cars to trucks. However, the government plans were for a State monopoly, a policy which meant that any private projects which did not contemplate the regime taking management decisions were rejected out of hand. From 1941 onwards, any new initiative was required to meet the plans set by INI. The main argument running through this paper is that one can only understand the development of the modern Spanish motor industry if one grasps the haggling between motor companies and government regarding market entry and the impact of the regime's autarchic policies in the 1940s.

Educació per a la seguretat i prevenció d'accidents a les institucions educatives.

Per lluitar contra els accidents és necessari establir programes educatius,entre els quals destaquen els escolars. Durant les primeres etapes de la vida i fins a l'adolescència, l'educació en la seguretat esdevé primordial pel fet que els infants són molt vulnerables, perquè els adolescents i joves s'exposen voluntàriament al risc i també perquè els uns i els altres estan en una etapa de la vida molt plàstica i receptiva per incorporar hàbits sans i segurs. Quan aquests programes es duen a terme a les institucions educatives és més fàcil d'assolir els objectius, perquè hi ha la possibilitat de sistematitzar les experiències d'aprenentatge i es disposa de més recursos i de més oportunitats per incidir en el tema de manera continuada i progressiva.

Una perspectiva policial: valors a la policia en accidents de trànsit

En totes es treballa amb material sensible. Són situacions delicades amb risc per la integritat física o psicològica i fins i tot per la vida. Situacions que necessitaran, molt probablement, ajut extern i no oblidem que generalment som els primers en arribar, mossos, bombers. El que fem en aquells primers instants és determinant pel desenvolupament futur d’aquella gent. D’aquí emana la nostra gran responsabilitat.

Recursos sobre seguretat i prevenció d'accidents

Aquestes referncies documentals formen part de `l'obra: Seguretat i Prevenció d'accidents, és a dir, un dels quaderns monogràfics d'educació per a la salut a l'escola, encarregada per la Conselleria d'Ensenyament de la Generalitat de Catalunya. En premsa.

Telerehabilitació en pacients amb accidents cerebrovascular: revisió bibliogràfica.

L’ ictus és una alteració brusca de la circulació de la sang al cervell, sent la segona causa de mort al món i la primera en discapacitat. Objectius. Examinar si la telerehabilitació i la realitat virtual poden millorar l'estat físic i psíquic dels pacients amb accident cerebrovascular i avaluar l’impacte en les activitats de la vida diària. Conclusió. Els resultats indiquen que la fisioteràpia convencional i un programa combinat de telerehabilitació o realitat virtual amb fisioteràpia, milloren les capacitats físiques dels pacients, no obstant, el tractament combinat obté millores significativament superiors al tractament convencional. La tecnologia en l’àmbit de la rehabilitació pot ser una alternativa segura per promoure la recuperació motora després d'un accident cerebrovascular.

Factors affecting hospital admission and recovery stay duration of in-patient motor victims in Spain

Hospital expenses are a major cost driver of healthcare systems in Europe, with motor injuries being the leading mechanism of hospitalizations. This paper investigates the injury characteristics which explain the hospitalization of victims of traffic accidents that took place in Spain. Using a motor insurance database with 16.081 observations a generalized Tobit regression model is applied to analyse the factors that influence both the likelihood of being admitted to hospital after a motor collision and the length of hospital stay in the event of admission. The consistency of Tobit estimates relies on the normality of perturbation terms. Here a semi-parametric regression model was fitted to test the consistency of estimates, concluding that a normal distribution of errors cannot be rejected. Among other results, it was found that older men with fractures and injuries located in the head and lower torso are more likely to be hospitalized after the collision, and that they also have a longer expected length of hospital recovery stay.

Discrete distributions when modeling the disability severity score of motor victims

Many European states apply score systems to evaluate the disability severity of non-fatal motor victims under the law of third-party liability. The score is a non-negative integer with an upper bound at 100 that increases with severity. It may be automatically converted into financial terms and thus also reflects the compensation cost for disability. In this paper, discrete regression models are applied to analyze the factors that influence the disability severity score of victims. Standard and zero-altered regression models are compared from two perspectives: an interpretation of the data generating process and the level of statistical fit. The results have implications for traffic safety policy decisions aimed at reducing accident severity. An application using data from Spain is provided.

Modelling the disability severity score in motor insurance claims: an application to the Spanish case

Bodily injury claims have the greatest impact on the claim costs of motor insurance companies. The disability severity of motor claims is assessed in numerous European countries by means of score systems. In this paper a zero inflated generalized Poisson regression model is implemented to estimate the disability severity score of victims in-volved in motor accidents on Spanish roads. We show that the injury severity estimates may be automatically converted into financial terms by insurers at any point of the claim handling process. As such, the methodology described may be used by motor insurers operating in the Spanish market to monitor the size of bodily injury claims. By using insurance data, various applications are presented in which the score estimate of disability severity is of value to insurers, either for computing the claim compensation or for claim reserve purposes.