Wave-height hazard analysis in Eastern Coast of Spain : Bayesian approach using generalized Pareto distribution

Standard practice of wave-height hazard analysis often pays little attention to the uncertainty of assessed return periods and occurrence probabilities. This fact favors the opinion that, when large events happen, the hazard assessment should change accordingly. However, uncertainty of the hazard estimates is normally able to hide the effect of those large events. This is illustrated using data from the Mediterranean coast of Spain, where the last years have been extremely disastrous. Thus, it is possible to compare the hazard assessment based on data previous to those years with the analysis including them. With our approach, no significant change is detected when the statistical uncertainty is taken into account. The hazard analysis is carried out with a standard model. Time-occurrence of events is assumed Poisson distributed. The wave-height of each event is modelled as a random variable which upper tail follows a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). Moreover, wave-heights are assumed independent from event to event and also independent of their occurrence in time. A threshold for excesses is assessed empirically. The other three parameters (Poisson rate, shape and scale parameters of GPD) are jointly estimated using Bayes' theorem. Prior distribution accounts for physical features of ocean waves in the Mediterranean sea and experience with these phenomena. Posterior distribution of the parameters allows to obtain posterior distributions of other derived parameters like occurrence probabilities and return periods. Predictives are also available. Computations are carried out using the program BGPE v2.0

Aplicación de programas de gestión sanitaria en criaderos marinos

La primera necesidad de los peces es la higiene. La elaboración de Programas de Gestión Sanitaria (PGS) aplicables a la industria, dentro de un marco realista y eficiente, pueden contribuir positivamente a la mejora sistemática de la productividad, afectando no sólo a la cantidad y calidad del producto, sino directamente a la eficiencia económica de la empresa. Las principales normas deben quedar reflejadas dentro de un Plan de Control Sanitario (PCS) de la instalación, normas que deben ser de obligado cumplimiento, tanto para los trabajadores como para las visitas. El seguimiento del PCS se realiza mediante la aplicación de un Sistema de Análisis de Peligros y Puntos Críticos de Control (APPCC), sistema que forma parte, a su vez, del Sistema de Gestión de la Calidad (SGC). No será factible la aplicación de ninguno de estos programas, planes y sistemas sin un uso racional del autocontrol. Hygiene is the first need that fish have. The elaboration of the Sanitary Management Programs (SMP) which industrial application, inside a realistic and efficient framework, could contribute positively to the systematic improvement of the production, affecting not only to the quantity and quality of the product, but that affect directly to the economic efficiency of the company. The main norms will be reflected in a Sanitary Control Plan (SCP) of the facilities, these norms must be obligatory fulfilment for the workers and visits. The monitoring of the SCP will do meanly the application of the Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point (HACCP), system that it is a part, also, of the Quality Management System (QMS). It is not possible, the application of any of this programs, plans and systems, without a rational use of the auto control processes.

Improved earthquake response via simulation and integrated space- and ground-based technologies: the TREMOR proposal

Earthquakes occurring around the world each year cause thousands ofdeaths, millions of dollars in damage to infrastructure, and incalculablehuman suffering. In recent years, satellite technology has been asignificant boon to response efforts following an earthquake and itsafter-effects by providing mobile communications between response teamsand remote sensing of damaged areas to disaster management organizations.In 2007, an international team of students and professionals assembledduring theInternational Space University’s Summer Session Program in Beijing, Chinato examine how satellite and ground-based technology could be betterintegrated to provide an optimised response in the event of an earthquake.The resulting Technology Resources for Earthquake MOnitoring and Response(TREMOR) proposal describes an integrative prototype response system thatwill implement mobile satellite communication hubs providing telephone anddata links between response teams, onsite telemedicine consultation foremergency first-responders, and satellite navigation systems that willlocate and track emergency vehicles and guide search-and-rescue crews. Aprototype earthquake simulation system is also proposed, integratinghistorical data, earthquake precursor data, and local geomatics andinfrastructure information to predict the damage that could occur in theevent of an earthquake. The backbone of these proposals is a comprehensiveeducation and training program to help individuals, communities andgovernments prepare in advance. The TREMOR team recommends thecoordination of these efforts through a centralised, non-governmentalorganization.

Implantació d’un sistema APPCC en les línies de canelons, croquetes i lasanyes a l’empresa de plats precuinats CUINATS JOTRI S.L.

Les diferents normatives, europea i nacional regulen la necessitat d’establir sistemes d’autocontrolque assegurin un nivell minim de seguretat dels productes alimentaris i de les normes relatives alsmanipuladors d’aliments. Les empreses del sector alimentari son les responsables de la higiene en elsseus establiments, basant-se en l’Analisi de Perills i Punts de Control Critic (APPCC) i controlant elpossible risc contra la salut en la cadena alimentaria. Els responsables de l’empresa de platsprecuinats cuinats Jotri S.L. estan interessats en la implementacio d’un sistema d’autocontrol de laqualitat. Per aixo estan interessats en la implementacio d’un sistema d’autocontrol de la seguretatalimentaria (APPCC). Es realitzara la determinacio de punts critics a controlar en les linies de canelonsde carn i l’apliacio de mesures preventives i mesures correctores en les linies de canelons, croquetesi lasanyes

Evaluation of a snow avalanche possibly triggered by a local earthquake at Vallée de la Sionne, Switzerland

Snow avalanches are moving sources of infrasonic and seismic energy. They can be triggered by many different mechanisms that include the shaking produced by earthquakes. The forces induced by an earthquake can cause an increase in the load down the slope and can also decrease the shear strength and both effects can cause the release of an avalanche. This phenomenon represents an important hazard associated with earthquakes in snow-covered mountain areas with high seismicity.

Elaboració d'un manual d'implantació del sistema APPCC per a microcerveseries

L’objectiu del treball ha estat elaborar un manual d’implantació del sistema d'Anàlisi de Perills i Punts Crítics de Control (APPCC) que serveixi de guia a les microcerveseries. En la primera part del manual s’ha realitzat una introducció on s’expliquen els orígens del sistema i es defineix l’APPCC com un sistema que permet identificar, avaluar i controlar els perills significatius en totes les fases de producció, transformació i distribució amb l’objectiu de garantir la innocuïtat dels aliments. Seguidament, s’ha mostrat la importància del Codex Alimentarius, on es troben descrites les directives per a l’aplicació del sistema d’APPCC. També s’ha indicat que el Reglament CE 852/2004, relatiu a la higiene dels productes alimentaris, obliga a les empreses alimentaries a crear, implementar i mantenir procediments permanents basats en els principis del sistema d’APPCC. Posteriorment, s’han exposat els aspectes que cal considerar per a poder implantar un sistema d’APPCC en una microcerveseria. S’han descrit aspectes com el marc legal del sector cerveser, la flexibilitat en l’aplicació del sistema d’autocontrol en les microempreses i els prerequisits. En l’annex 1, s’han desenvolupat els prerequisits necessaris per a les microcerveseries, i en l’annex 2, s’han mostrat exemples de registres derivats de la seva aplicació. Els prerequisits són bàsics per assegurar un entorn i unes condicions de treball higièniques, reduint o eliminant perills de contaminació en els aliments. Els prerequisits consideren els perills generals de l’entorn de treball. En canvi, l’APPCC considera els perills específics del procés de producció. Tot seguit, s’han definit els principis bàsics i les directrius per a l’aplicació del sistema d’APPCC descrits en el Codex Alimentarius, explicant les diferents fases que cal seguir per a la correcta implantació del sistema d’autocontrol. En la segona part del manual, s’ha desenvolupat el sistema d’APPCC per al procés d’elaboració de la cervesa artesana

Implantació d’un manual de gestió en una indústria de llescats

Estudi sobre la implantació d’un manual de gestió en una indústria dellescats, realitzat a l’empresa Serra&Mota de la Cellera de Ter (consta d’un sistema APPCC i un manual de qualitat)

Elaboración e implantación de un sistema APPCC para industrias elaboradoras de creps

Debido a la coyuntura actual y a la liberalización del comercio de alimentos, es necesariogarantizar la seguridad e inocuidad de los alimentos, las cuales se conseguirán aplicando lasprácticas y las normas apropiadas en materia de seguridad alimentaria. Los reglamentoscomunitarios en materia de seguridad alimentaria, y en particular el Reglamento (CE) nº852/2004 relativo a la higiene de los alimentos, obligan a las empresas alimentarias a aplicarun sistema de autocontrol basado en los principios del Análisis de Peligros y Puntos Críticosde Control (APPCC). En España, la legislación nacional ya contemplaba este requisito. En elámbito de las comidas preparadas, esta exigencia se recogía expresamente en el Real Decreto3484/200, de 29 de diciembre, por el que se establecen las normas de higiene para laelaboración, distribución y comercio de comidas preparadas.En el presente Proyecto/Trabajo Final de Carrera (PTFC), se ha elaborado un manual, queconsta de ocho capítulos, unos anexos y una memoria descriptiva, que servirá de guía para eldiseño de un sistema de APPCC, siguiendo los procedimientos definidos en el CodexAlimentarius, que permita su aplicación a las industrias elaboradoras de creps y a la vezproporcione las pautas necesarias para su implantación. Debido a la imposibilidad de aplicarel sistema de APPCC desarrollado a una industria concreta, se ha elaborado un manualgenérico que cada industria deberá adaptar a sus sistema productivo

Three-dimensional morphological analysis of intracranial aneurysms: a fully automated method for aneurysm sac isolation and quantification

Morphological descriptors are practical and essential biomarkers for diagnosis andtreatment selection for intracranial aneurysm management according to the current guidelinesin use. Nevertheless, relatively little work has been dedicated to improve the three-dimensionalquanti cation of aneurysmal morphology, automate the analysis, and hence reduce the inherentintra- and inter-observer variability of manual analysis. In this paper we propose a methodologyfor the automated isolation and morphological quanti cation of saccular intracranial aneurysmsbased on a 3D representation of the vascular anatomy.

Automated Segmentation of Cerebral Vasculature with Aneurysms in 3DRA and TOF-MRA using Geodesic Active Regions: an Evaluation Study

Purpose: To evaluate the suitability of an improved version of an automatic segmentation method based on geodesic active regions (GAR) for segmenting cerebral vasculature with aneurysms from 3D X-ray reconstruc-tion angiography (3DRA) and time of °ight magnetic resonance angiography (TOF-MRA) images available in the clinical routine.Methods: Three aspects of the GAR method have been improved: execution time, robustness to variability in imaging protocols and robustness to variability in image spatial resolutions. The improved GAR was retrospectively evaluated on images from patients containing intracranial aneurysms in the area of the Circle of Willis and imaged with two modalities: 3DRA and TOF-MRA. Images were obtained from two clinical centers, each using di®erent imaging equipment. Evaluation included qualitative and quantitative analyses ofthe segmentation results on 20 images from 10 patients. The gold standard was built from 660 cross-sections (33 per image) of vessels and aneurysms, manually measured by interventional neuroradiologists. GAR has also been compared to an interactive segmentation method: iso-intensity surface extraction (ISE). In addition, since patients had been imaged with the two modalities, we performed an inter-modality agreement analysis with respect to both the manual measurements and each of the two segmentation methods. Results: Both GAR and ISE di®ered from the gold standard within acceptable limits compared to the imaging resolution. GAR (ISE, respectively) had an average accuracy of 0.20 (0.24) mm for 3DRA and 0.27 (0.30) mm for TOF-MRA, and had a repeatability of 0.05 (0.20) mm. Compared to ISE, GAR had a lower qualitative error in the vessel region and a lower quantitative error in the aneurysm region. The repeatabilityof GAR was superior to manual measurements and ISE. The inter-modality agreement was similar between GAR and the manual measurements. Conclusions: The improved GAR method outperformed ISE qualitatively as well as quantitatively and is suitable for segmenting 3DRA and TOF-MRA images from clinical routine.

How important are tobacco prices in the propensity to start and quit smoking? An analysis of smoking histories from the Spanish National Health Survey

This paper analyses the effect of tobacco prices on the propensity tostart and quit smoking using a pool of the 1993, 1995 and 1997 editionsof the Spanish National Health Surveys. The estimates for severalparametric models of the hazard rate for starting and quitting suggestthat i) The public health measures applied as of 1992 have had asignificative effect on both reducing the hazard of starting andincreasing the hazard of quitting, ii) Prices have a very weak effect onthe hazard of starting in the male population and no significant effectin the female population, iii) The price floor of cigarrettes, proxiedby the average price of a pack of black cigarrettes, has a significanteffect on the quitting hazard which is robust across specifications andapplies to both men and women. The implied price elasticity of the timeup to quitting is situated around -1.4.

Rockfall travel distance analysis by using empirical models (Solà d'Andorra la Vella, Central Pyrenees)

The prediction of rockfall travel distance below a rock cliff is an indispensable activity in rockfall susceptibility, hazard and risk assessment. Although the size of the detached rock mass may differ considerably at each specific rock cliff, small rockfall (<100 m3) is the most frequent process. Empirical models may provide us with suitable information for predicting the travel distance of small rockfalls over an extensive area at a medium scale (1:100 000¿1:25 000). "Solà d'Andorra la Vella" is a rocky slope located close to the town of Andorra la Vella, where the government has been documenting rockfalls since 1999. This documentation consists in mapping the release point and the individual fallen blocks immediately after the event. The documentation of historical rockfalls by morphological analysis, eye-witness accounts and historical images serve to increase available information. In total, data from twenty small rockfalls have been gathered which reveal an amount of a hundred individual fallen rock blocks. The data acquired has been used to check the reliability of the main empirical models widely adopted (reach and shadow angle models) and to analyse the influence of parameters which affecting the travel distance (rockfall size, height of fall along the rock cliff and volume of the individual fallen rock block). For predicting travel distances in maps with medium scales, a method has been proposed based on the "reach probability" concept. The accuracy of results has been tested from the line entailing the farthest fallen boulders which represents the maximum travel distance of past rockfalls. The paper concludes with a discussion of the application of both empirical models to other study areas.

The effect of scale in daily precipitation hazard assessment

Daily precipitation is recorded as the total amount of water collected by a rain-gauge in 24 h. Events are modelled as a Poisson process and the 24 h precipitation by a Generalised Pareto Distribution (GPD) of excesses. Hazard assessment is complete when estimates of the Poisson rate and the distribution parameters, together with a measure of their uncertainty, are obtained. The shape parameter of the GPD determines the support of the variable: Weibull domain of attraction (DA) corresponds to finite support variables as should be for natural phenomena. However, Fréchet DA has been reported for daily precipitation, which implies an infinite support and a heavy-tailed distribution. Bayesian techniques are used to estimate the parameters. The approach is illustrated with precipitation data from the Eastern coast of the Iberian Peninsula affected by severe convective precipitation. The estimated GPD is mainly in the Fréchet DA, something incompatible with the common sense assumption of that precipitation is a bounded phenomenon. The bounded character of precipitation is then taken as a priori hypothesis. Consistency of this hypothesis with the data is checked in two cases: using the raw-data (in mm) and using log-transformed data. As expected, a Bayesian model checking clearly rejects the model in the raw-data case. However, log-transformed data seem to be consistent with the model. This fact may be due to the adequacy of the log-scale to represent positive measurements for which differences are better relative than absolute

REGSTATTOOLS: freeware statistical tools for the analysis of disease population databases used in health and social studies

Background: The repertoire of statistical methods dealing with the descriptive analysis of the burden of a disease has been expanded and implemented in statistical software packages during the last years. The purpose of this paper is to present a web-based tool, REGSTATTOOLS http://regstattools.net intended to provide analysis for the burden of cancer, or other group of disease registry data. Three software applications are included in REGSTATTOOLS: SART (analysis of disease"s rates and its time trends), RiskDiff (analysis of percent changes in the rates due to demographic factors and risk of developing or dying from a disease) and WAERS (relative survival analysis). Results: We show a real-data application through the assessment of the burden of tobacco-related cancer incidence in two Spanish regions in the period 1995-2004. Making use of SART we show that lung cancer is the most common cancer among those cancers, with rising trends in incidence among women. We compared 2000-2004 data with that of 1995-1999 to assess percent changes in the number of cases as well as relative survival using RiskDiff and WAERS, respectively. We show that the net change increase in lung cancer cases among women was mainly attributable to an increased risk of developing lung cancer, whereas in men it is attributable to the increase in population size. Among men, lung cancer relative survival was higher in 2000-2004 than in 1995-1999, whereas it was similar among women when these time periods were compared. Conclusions: Unlike other similar applications, REGSTATTOOLS does not require local software installation and it is simple to use, fast and easy to interpret. It is a set of web-based statistical tools intended for automated calculation of population indicators that any professional in health or social sciences may require.

Rapid analysis of multiclass antibiotic residues and some of their metabolites in hospital, urban wastewater and river water by ultra-highperformance liquid chromatography coupled to quadrupole-linear ion trap tandem mass spectrometry

The present work describes the development of a fast and robust analytical method for the determination of 53 antibiotic residues, covering various chemical groups and some of their metabolites, in environmental matrices that are considered important sources of antibiotic pollution, namely hospital and urban wastewaters, as well as in river waters. The method is based on automated off-line solid phase extraction (SPE) followed by ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography coupled to quadrupole linear ion trap tandem mass spectrometry (UHPLC–QqLIT). For unequivocal identification and confirmation, and in order to fulfill EU guidelines, two selected reaction monitoring (SRM) transitions per compound are monitored (the most intense one is used for quantification and the second one for confirmation). Quantification of target antibiotics is performed by the internal standard approach, using one isotopically labeled compound for each chemical group, in order to correct matrix effects. The main advantages of the method are automation and speed-up of sample preparation, by the reduction of extraction volumes for all matrices, the fast separation of a wide spectrum of antibiotics by using ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography, its sensitivity (limits of detection in the low ng/L range) and selectivity (due to the use of tandem mass spectrometry) The inclusion of β-lactam antibiotics (penicillins and cephalosporins), which are compounds difficult to analyze in multi-residue methods due to their instability in water matrices, and some antibiotics metabolites are other important benefits of the method developed. As part of the validation procedure, the method developed was applied to the analysis of antibiotics residues in hospital, urban influent and effluent wastewaters as well as in river water samples