A proposal for a new specification for a conditionally heteroskedastic variance model: the Quadratic Moving-Average Conditional Heteroskedasticity and an application to the D. Mark-U.S. dollar Exchange Rate

Ever since the appearance of the ARCH model [Engle(1982a)], an impressive array of variance specifications belonging to the same class of models has emerged [i.e. Bollerslev's (1986) GARCH; Nelson's (1990) EGARCH]. This recent domain has achieved very successful developments. Nevertheless, several empirical studies seem to show that the performance of such models is not always appropriate [Boulier(1992)]. In this paper we propose a new specification: the Quadratic Moving Average Conditional heteroskedasticity model. Its statistical properties, such as the kurtosis and the symmetry, as well as two estimators (Method of Moments and Maximum Likelihood) are studied. Two statistical tests are presented, the first one tests for homoskedasticity and the second one, discriminates between ARCH and QMACH specification. A Monte Carlo study is presented in order to illustrate some of the theoretical results. An empirical study is undertaken for the DM-US exchange rate.

The Determinants of pricing in pharmaceuticals: are U.S. prices really higher than those of Canada?

This paper studies price determination in pharmaceutical markets using data for 25 countries, six years and a comprehensive list of products from the MIDAS IMS database. We show that market power and the quality of the product has a significantly positive impact of prices. The nationality of the producer appears to have a small and often insignificant impact on prices, which suggests that countries which regulates prices have relatively little power to do it in a way that advances narrow national interest. We produce a theoretical explanation for this phenomenon based on the fact that low negotiated prices in a country would have a knock-on effect in other markets, and is thus strongly resisted by producers. Another key finding is that the U.S. has prices that are not significantly higher than those of countries with similar income levels. This, together with the former observation on the effect of the nationality of producers casts doubt on the ability of countries to purs

Determinació de la ubicació estructural dels ions Yb3+ i Nb3+ en Yb:RTP, Nb:RTP i (Nb,Yb):RTP

Estudi elaborat a partir d’una estada al Stony Brook University al juliol del 2006. El RbTiOPO4 (RTP) monocristal•lí és un material d' òptica no lineal molt rellevant i utilitzat en la tecnologia làser actual, químicament molt estable i amb unes propietats físiques molt destacades, entre elles destaquen els alts coeficients electro-òptics i l'alt llindar de dany òptic que presenta. En els últims anys s’està utilitzant tecnològicament en aplicacions d'òptica no lineal en general i electro-òptiques en particular. En alguns casos ja ha substituït, millorant prestacions, a materials tals com el KTP o el LNB(1). Dopant RTP amb ions lantànids (Ln3+) (2-4), el material es converteix en un material làser auto-doblador de freqüència, combinant les seves propietats no lineals amb les de matriu làser. El RTP genera radiació de segon harmònic (SHG) a partir d’un feix fonamental amb longituds d’ona inferiors a 990 nm, que és el límit que presenta el KTP.La determinació de la ubicació estructural i l’estudi de l'entorn local del ions actius làser és de fonamental importància per a la correcta interpretació de les propietats espectroscòpiques d’aquest material. Mesures de difracció de neutrons sobre mostra de pols cristal•lí mostren que els ions Nb5+ i Ln3+ només substitueixin posicions de Ti4+ (8-9). Estudis molt recents d'EPR (electron paramagnetic resonance) semblen indicar que quan la concentració d'ió Ln3+ es baixa, aquest ió presenta la tendència a substituir l'ió alcalí present a l'estructura (10).Després dels resultats obtinguts en el present treball a partir de la tècnica EXAFS a la instal•lació sincrotò del Brookhaven National Laboratory/State University of New York (Stony Brook) es pot concloure definitivament que els ions Nb s’ubiquen en la posició Ti (1) i que els ions Yb3+ es distribueixen paritariament en les dues posicions del Ti (1 i 2). Aquests resultats aporten una valuosa informació per a la correcta interpretació dels espectres, tant d’absorció com d’emissió, del material i per la avaluació dels paràmetres del seu comportament durant l'acció làser.

The Role of model uncertainty and learning in the U.S. postwar policy response to oil prices

This paper studies optimal monetary policy in a framework that explicitly accounts for policymakers' uncertainty about the channels of transmission of oil prices into the economy. More specfically, I examine the robust response to the real price of oil that US monetary authorities would have been recommended to implement in the period 1970 2009; had they used the approach proposed by Cogley and Sargent (2005b) to incorporate model uncertainty and learning into policy decisions. In this context, I investigate the extent to which regulator' changing beliefs over different models of the economy play a role in the policy selection process. The main conclusion of this work is that, in the specific environment under analysis, one of the underlying models dominates the optimal interest rate response to oil prices. This result persists even when alternative assumptions on the model's priors change the pattern of the relative posterior probabilities, and can thus be attributed to the presence of model uncertainty itself.

Fiscal policy, foresight and the trade balance in the U.S.

This paper investigates the effects of fiscal policy on the trade balance using a structural factor model. A fiscal policy shock worsens the trade balance and produces an appreciation of the domestic currency but the effects are quantitatively small. The findings match the theoretical predictions of the standard Mundell-Fleming model, although fiscal policy should not be considered one of the main causes of the large US external deficit. My conclusions differ from those reached using VAR models since the fiscal shock, possibly due to fiscal foresight, is nonfundamental for the variables typically used in open economy VARs.

Los alumnos de la E.U.E CRUZ ROJA en Madrid : evolución histórica, visión antropológica

L'objectiu principal d'aquest treball és mostrar la història de l'Escola Universitària d'Infermeria de Creu Roja a Madrid, a través dels alumnes que s'han format en ella, des de 1918 fins a l'època actual.

La sintaxis de los determinantes en el Cantar de Mío Cid

Comunicació on s'analitza l'article en el 'Cantar del Mio Cid' i el sistema de demostratius en l'espanyol medieval

Statistical Analysis of Eco-Toxicologic Data of Mammals from a Polluted Area

Several eco-toxicological studies have shown that insectivorous mammals, due to theirfeeding habits, easily accumulate high amounts of pollutants in relation to other mammal species. To assess the bio-accumulation levels of toxic metals and their in°uenceon essential metals, we quantified the concentration of 19 elements (Ca, K, Fe, B, P,S, Na, Al, Zn, Ba, Rb, Sr, Cu, Mn, Hg, Cd, Mo, Cr and Pb) in bones of 105 greaterwhite-toothed shrews (Crocidura russula) from a polluted (Ebro Delta) and a control(Medas Islands) area. Since chemical contents of a bio-indicator are mainly compositional data, conventional statistical analyses currently used in eco-toxicology can givemisleading results. Therefore, to improve the interpretation of the data obtained, weused statistical techniques for compositional data analysis to define groups of metalsand to evaluate the relationships between them, from an inter-population viewpoint.Hypothesis testing on the adequate balance-coordinates allow us to confirm intuitionbased hypothesis and some previous results. The main statistical goal was to test equalmeans of balance-coordinates for the two defined populations. After checking normality,one-way ANOVA or Mann-Whitney tests were carried out for the inter-group balances