Spatial Exploration of Age Distribution in Catalan Municipalities

This paper takes the shelf and digs into the complex population’s age structure of Catalan municipalities for the year 2009. Catalonia is a very heterogeneous territory, and age pyramids vary considerably across different areas of the territory, existing geographical factors shaping municipalities’ age distributions. By means of spatial statistics methodologies, this piece of research tries to assess which spatial factors determine the location, scale and shape of local distributions. The results show that there exist different distributional patterns across the geography according to specific local determinants. Keywords: Spatial Models. JEL Classification: C21.

Epidemiology of measles virus outbreaks in Catalonia: importance of immunization in the elimination era

Eradicating measles represents a major public health achievement, yet outbreaks still occur in territories where endemic measles virus (MV) had been eliminated. In Catalonia from the year 2000 cases have occurred as isolated cases or small outbreaks, both linked to imported cases up to the end of 2006 when a large outbreak started out affecting mainly children ≤15m. In consequence, immunization schedule was amended lowering first dose to 12m. Again new MV importations from neighboring countries triggered another outbreak on November 2010 with a different age distribution sparing small children from infection. Differences in incidence (IR), rate ratio (RR) and 95% CI and hospitalization rate (HR) by age group were determined. Statistic z was used for comparing proportions. Total number of confirmed cases was 305 vs 381 in 2006; mean age 20 yrs (SD 14.8yrs; 3m -51yrs) vs 15m (SD13.1yrs; 1m-50yrs). Highest proportion of cases was set in ≥25yrs (47%) vs 24.2% in 2006 (p<0.001). Difference in IR for ≤ 15m was statistically significant (49/100,000 vs 278.2/100,000; RR:3.9; 95%CI 2.9-5.4) and in HR 30.2% vs 15.7% (p<0.001). The change of the month of administration of the first dose proved successful. Given the current epidemiological situation, continued awareness and efforts to reach young adult population are needed to stop the spread of the virus.

Epidemiology of measles virus outbreaks in Catalonia: importance of immunization in the elimination era

Eradicating measles represents a major public health achievement, yet outbreaks still occur in territories where endemic measles virus (MV) had been eliminated. In Catalonia from the year 2000 cases have occurred as isolated cases or small outbreaks, both linked to imported cases up to the end of 2006 when a large outbreak started out affecting mainly children ≤15m. In consequence, immunization schedule was amended lowering first dose to 12m. Again new MV importations from neighboring countries triggered another outbreak on November 2010 with a different age distribution sparing small children from infection. Differences in incidence (IR), rate ratio (RR) and 95% CI and hospitalization rate (HR) by age group were determined. Statistic z was used for comparing proportions. Total number of confirmed cases was 305 vs 381 in 2006; mean age 20 yrs (SD 14.8yrs; 3m -51yrs) vs 15m (SD13.1yrs; 1m-50yrs). Highest proportion of cases was set in ≥25yrs (47%) vs 24.2% in 2006 (p<0.001). Difference in IR for ≤ 15m was statistically significant (49/100,000 vs 278.2/100,000; RR:3.9; 95%CI 2.9-5.4) and in HR 30.2% vs 15.7% (p<0.001). The change of the month of administration of the first dose proved successful. Given the current epidemiological situation, continued awareness and efforts to reach young adult population are needed to stop the spread of the virus.

Polygenic determinants of white matter volume derived from GWAS lack reproducibility in a replicate sample

A recent publication reported an exciting polygenic effect of schizophrenia (SCZ) risk variants, identified by a large genome-wide association study (GWAS), on total brain and white matter volumes in schizophrenic patients and, even more prominently, in healthy subjects. The aim of the present work was to replicate and then potentially extend these findings. According to the original publication, polygenic risk scores using single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) information of SCZ GWAS (polygenic SCZ risk scores; PSS) were calculated in 122 healthy subjects, enrolled in a structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) study. These scores were computed based on P-values and odds ratios available through the Psychiatric GWAS Consortium. In addition, polygenic white matter scores (PWM) were calculated, using the respective SNP subset in the original publication. None of the polygenic scores, either PSS or PWM, were found to be associated with total brain, white matter or gray matter volume in our replicate sample. Minor differences between the original and the present study that might have contributed to lack of reproducibility (but unlikely explain it fully), are number of subjects, ethnicity, age distribution, array technology, SNP imputation quality and MRI scanner type. In contrast to the original publication, our results do not reveal the slightest signal of association of the described sets of GWAS-identified SCZ risk variants with brain volumes in adults. Caution is indicated in interpreting studies building on polygenic risk scores without replication sample.

Optimal latent period in a bacteriophage population model structured by infection-age

We study the lysis timing of a bacteriophage population by means of a continuously infection-age-structured population dynamics model. The features of the model are the infection process of bacteria, the natural death process, and the lysis process which means the replication of bacteriophage viruses inside bacteria and the destruction of them. We consider that the length of the lysis timing (or latent period) is distributed according to a general probability distribution function. We have carried out an optimization procedure and we have found the latent period corresponding to the maximal fitness (i.e. maximal growth rate) of the bacteriophage population.

Population genetic structure and demography analysis in palinurus elephas populations from atlantic and mediterranean waters

Report for the scientific sojourn at the University of Reading, United Kingdom, from January until May 2008. The main objectives have been firstly to infer population structure and parameters in demographic models using a total of 13 microsatellite loci for genotyping approximately 30 individuals per population in 10 Palinurus elephas populations both from Mediterranean and Atlantic waters. Secondly, developing statistical methods to identify discrepant loci, possibly under selection and implement those methods using the R software environment. It is important to consider that the calculation of the probability distribution of the demographic and mutational parameters for a full genetic data set is numerically difficult for complex demographic history (Stephens 2003). The Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC), based on summary statistics to infer posterior distributions of variable parameters without explicit likelihood calculations, can surmount this difficulty. This would allow to gather information on different demographic prior values (i.e. effective population sizes, migration rate, microsatellite mutation rate, mutational processes) and assay the sensitivity of inferences to demographic priors by assuming different priors.

Quantifying quantitative literacy: Age heaping and the history of human capital

Age data frequently display excess frequencies at round or attractive ages, such as even numbers and multiples of five. This phenomenon of age heaping has been viewed as a problem in previous research, especially in demography and epidemiology. We see it as an opportunity and propose its use as a measure of human capital that can yield comparable estimates across a wide range of historical contexts. A simulation study yields methodological guidelines for measuring and interpreting differences in ageheaping, while analysis of contemporary and historical datasets demonstrates the existence of a robust correlation between age heaping and literacy at both the individual and aggregate level. To illustrate the method, we generate estimates of human capital in Europe over the very long run, which support the hypothesis of a major increase in human capital preceding the industrial revolution.

On homology searches by protein Blast and the characterization of the age of genes

Background: It has been shown in a variety of organisms, including mammals, that genes that appeared recently in evolution, for example orphan genes, evolve faster than older genes. Low functional constraints at the time of origin of novel genes may explain these results. However, this observation has been recently attributed to an artifact caused by the inability of Blast to detect the fastest genes in different eukaryotic genomes. Distinguishing between these two possible explanations would be of great importance for any studies dealing with the taxon distribution of proteins and the origin of novel genes. Results: Here we used simulations of protein sequences to examine the capacity of Blast to detect proteins of diverse evolutionary rates in the different species of an eukaryotic phylogenetic tree that included metazoans, fungi and plants. We simulated the evolution of protein genes with the same evolutionary rates than those observed in functional mammalian genes and with among-site rate heterogeneity. Under these conditions, we found that only a very small percentage of simulated ancestral eukaryotic proteins was affected by the Blast artifact. We show that the good detectability of Blast is due to the heterogeneity of protein evolutionary rates at different sites, since only a small conserved motif in a sequence suffices to detect its homologues. Our results indicate that Blast, at least when applied within eukaryotes, only misses homologues of extremely fast-evolving sequences, which are rare in the mammalian genome, as well as sequences evolving homogeneously or pseudogenes.Conclusion: Although great care should be exercised in the recognition of remote homologues, most functional mammalian genes can be detected in eukaryotic genomes by Blast. That is, the majority of functional mammalian genes are not as fast as for not being detected in other metazoans, fungi or plants, if they had been present in these organisms. Thus, the correlation previously found between age and rate seems not to be due to a pure Blast artifact, at least for mammals. This may have important implications to understand the mechanisms by which novel genes originate.

Tissue distribution of retinoids in common dolphins (Delphinus delphis).

Exposure to organochlorines induces retinoid deficiency in mammals; hence, retinoids are potential biomarkers of the impact of these pollutants. Appropriate target tissues to monitor retinoids in cetaceans have not been properly identified because of a lack of information on the contribution of each tissue to total body retinoids. Therefore, we have addressed this issue by studying the contribution of the main body tissues to retinoids in 21 common dolphins obtained from incidental catches and in apparent good health and nutritive condition. Although concentrations in the liver were highest, those in blubber were also high and accounted for 43% of the total retinoid load of the compartments examined. As blubber can be obtained using non-invasive biopsy techniques, this tissue is proposed as a reliable indicator of retinoid status in cetaceans. However, blubber topographical variation in structure and composition requires standardization of sampling sites. Retinoid concentrations did not differ significantly between sexes or with body size for any of the tissues, but the lipid content of blubber strongly influenced these concentrations. Biopsies from healthy, free-ranging individuals are preferred to samples from stranded animals. Further research on the influence of factors (age, sex, reproductive condition, diet) that potentially affect retinoid levels is required to implement the use of retinoids as biomarkers of pollutant exposure in cetaceans.

Hydrological evidence for a North Atlantic oscillation during the Little Ice Age outside its range observed since 1850.

An annual-resolved precipitation reconstruction for the last 800 yr in Southern Spain has been performed using stable carbon isotope (δ13C) of Pinus nigra tree rings. The reconstruction exhibits high- to low-frequency variability and distinguishes a Little Ice Age (LIA, AD 13501850) characterized by lower averaged rainfall than both in the transition from the Medieval Climate Anomaly to the LIA and in the 20th century. The driest conditions are recorded during the Maunder solar Minimum (mid 17thearly 18th centuries), in good agreement with the Spanish documentary archive. Similar linkage between solar activity (maximum/minimum) and precipitation (increase/decrease) is observed throughout the entire LIA. Additionally, the relationship between the hydrological pattern in the Iberian Peninsula and Morocco during the LIA suggests different spatial distribution of precipitation in the south-eastern sector of the North Atlantic region such as it is known currently. Whereas in the instrumental record the precipitation evolves similarly in both regions and opposite to the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) index, the coldest periods of the LIA shows a contrasting pattern with drier conditions in the South of Spain and wetter in Northern Africa. We suggest an extreme negative NAO conditions, accompanied by a southward excursion of the winter rainfall band beyond that observed in the last century, can explain this contrast. The sustained NAO conditions could have been triggered by solar minima and higher volcanic activity during the LIA.

Optimal latent period in a bacteriophage population model structured by infection-age

We study the lysis timing of a bacteriophage population by means of a continuously infection-age-structured population dynamics model. The features of the model are the infection process of bacteria, the death process, and the lysis process which means the replication of bacteriophage viruses inside bacteria and the destruction of them. The time till lysis (or latent period) is assumed to have an arbitrary distribution. We have carried out an optimization procedure, and we have found that the latent period corresponding to maximal fitness (i.e. maximal growth rate of the bacteriophage population) is of fixed length. We also study the dependence of the optimal latent period on the amount of susceptible bacteria and the number of virions released by a single infection. Finally, the evolutionarily stable strategy of the latent period is also determined as a fixed period taking into account that super-infections are not considered