'Biased' Risk Perceptions of Longevity and Disability in Old Age

Rational learning theories postulate that information channels and cognitive biases such as individual optimism may influence an individual¿s assessment of the risk of undesired events, especially with regard to those that have a cumulative nature. This is the case with disability in old age, which may take place upon survival to an advanced age, and such factors have been regarded as responsible for certain individual behaviours (for example, the limited incidence of insurance purchase). This paper examines the determinants of individual perceptions with regard to disability in old age and longevity. The cumulative nature of such perceptions of risk is tested, and potential biases are identified, including `optimism¿ and a set of information determinants. Empirical evidence from a representative survey of Catalonia is presented to illustrate these effects. The findings from this research suggest a significant overestimation of disability in old age, yet this is not the case with longevity. Furthermore, individual perceptions with regard to disability in old age, unlike those with regard to longevity, exhibit on aggregate an `optimistic bias¿ and, are perceived as `cumulative risks¿. Gender influences the perceived risk of disability in old age at a population level but not at the individual level, and the opposite holds true for age. Finally, self-reported health status is the main variable behind risk perceptions at both the individual and population level.

'Biased' Risk Perceptions of Longevity and Disability in Old Age

Rational learning theories postulate that information channels and cognitive biases such as individual optimism may influence an individual¿s assessment of the risk of undesired events, especially with regard to those that have a cumulative nature. This is the case with disability in old age, which may take place upon survival to an advanced age, and such factors have been regarded as responsible for certain individual behaviours (for example, the limited incidence of insurance purchase). This paper examines the determinants of individual perceptions with regard to disability in old age and longevity. The cumulative nature of such perceptions of risk is tested, and potential biases are identified, including `optimism¿ and a set of information determinants. Empirical evidence from a representative survey of Catalonia is presented to illustrate these effects. The findings from this research suggest a significant overestimation of disability in old age, yet this is not the case with longevity. Furthermore, individual perceptions with regard to disability in old age, unlike those with regard to longevity, exhibit on aggregate an `optimistic bias¿ and, are perceived as `cumulative risks¿. Gender influences the perceived risk of disability in old age at a population level but not at the individual level, and the opposite holds true for age. Finally, self-reported health status is the main variable behind risk perceptions at both the individual and population level.

Estudi sobre el perfil de persones grans amb dependència del servei d'ajuda a domicili del Consell Comarcal d'Osona i el tipus de suport formal i informal

The aim of this study is to determine the profile of dependent elderly people users of the home care services (SAD) of the regional council in Osona (Consell Comarcal d´Osona) , and the characteristics of formal and informal types of support they use. Methodology. An observational study of a transversal format has been carried out, with retrospective and descriptive purposes. The target population is 63 people (26 men and 37 women) included in the program of the regional SAD They have a recognized dependence grade approved by the law 39 /2006, December 14th , promoting the individual autonomy and care of elderly people in a dependent situation. The data were collected by social workers of basic social services, first with a home visit and followed by handed out questionnaires, specifically designed for this study, in order to obtain information on socio-demographic characteristics, and the type of support formal and informal. The obtained results on the SAD users are women in a 58.7% and a 41.3 % are men. The 84% of the total sampling are 80 years old and more, being the average age of 85.2 years old. 45% of them are married, 41% are widows and widowers and 14% are single. 54% are rated with severe dependence (grade II), 42.8% with high dependence (grade III). 86% live accompanied. 100% have an informal caregiver and a 95% of the times, the caregiver is a relative who in 73% of the cases the dedication time is permanent. The coverage of the SAD has an average of 4.27 hours per week and per user. The formal services most used are the technical (62%), also the assessment of an occupational therapist at home (57%) and the telecare service in a (56%). Conclusions. The SAD is used primarily for women in an advanced age and severe dependence. The informal assistance structures have an informal caregiver, being a member of the family mostly, living with the dependent, and mainly in a permanent dedication basis. The SAD has a varied intensity in each case. The formal support services complementary to the SAD, are largely used in all cases.

Do the interactions between glucocorticoids and sex hormones regulate the development of the metabolic syndrome?

The metabolic syndrome is basically a maturity-onset disease. Typically, its manifestations begin to flourish years after the initial dietary or environmental aggression began. Since most hormonal, metabolic, or defense responses are practically immediate, the procrastinated response do not seem justified. Only in childhood, the damages of the metabolic syndrome appear with minimal delay. Sex affects the incidence of the metabolic syndrome, but this is more an effect of timing than absolute gender differences, females holding better than males up to menopause, when the differences between sexes tend to disappear. The metabolic syndrome is related to an immune response, countered by a permanent increase in glucocorticoids, which keep the immune system at bay but also induce insulin resistance, alter the lipid metabolism, favor fat deposition, mobilize protein, and decrease androgen synthesis. Androgens limit the operation of glucocorticoids, which is also partly blocked by estrogens, since they decrease inflammation (which enhances glucocorticoid release). These facts suggest that the appearance of the metabolic syndrome symptoms depends on the strength (i.e., levels) of androgens and estrogens. The predominance of glucocorticoids and the full manifestation of the syndrome in men are favored by decreased androgen activity. Low androgens can be found in infancy, maturity, advanced age, or because of their inhibition by glucocorticoids (inflammation, stress, medical treatment). Estrogens decrease inflammation and reduce the glucocorticoid response. Low estrogen (infancy, menopause) again allow the predominance of glucocorticoids and the manifestation of the metabolic syndrome. It is postulated that the equilibrium between sex hormones and glucocorticoids may be a critical element in the timing of the manifestation of metabolic syndrome-related pathologies.

Hipertensión arterial y enfermedad de Alzheimer

Hypertension (HT) is the most prevalent cardiovascular risk factor associated with dementia and Alzheimer disease (AD). The evidence about the association within hight blood pressure (BP) level in the middle age and dementia and Alzheimer’s disease incidence in the advanced age has increased. Longitudinal studies show that in the previous years of onset AD, BP is similar or lower in the patients who develop AD with regard to those who not develop. When patients has developed AD the case is the same that the previous one. Most studies show that BP reduction is beneficious to prevent cognitive impairment, dementia and AD. Is spite of some discordant studies, health authorities recommend to treat isolated systolic HT with an ‘A’ evidence degree, level 1, to prevent AD. Animal experimentation prove different ways to act of antihypertensive drugs in the AD prevention and has established the pathophysiological bases in this relation, until now only showed through various clinical studies

Estudi sobre el perfil de persones grans amb dependència del servei d'ajuda a domicili del Consell Comarcal d'Osona i el tipus de suport formal i informal

The aim of this study is to determine the profile of dependent elderly people users of the home care services (SAD) of the regional council in Osona (Consell Comarcal d´Osona) , and the characteristics of formal and informal types of support they use. Methodology. An observational study of a transversal format has been carried out, with retrospective and descriptive purposes. The target population is 63 people (26 men and 37 women) included in the program of the regional SAD They have a recognized dependence grade approved by the law 39 /2006, December 14th , promoting the individual autonomy and care of elderly people in a dependent situation. The data were collected by social workers of basic social services, first with a home visit and followed by handed out questionnaires, specifically designed for this study, in order to obtain information on socio-demographic characteristics, and the type of support formal and informal. The obtained results on the SAD users are women in a 58.7% and a 41.3 % are men. The 84% of the total sampling are 80 years old and more, being the average age of 85.2 years old. 45% of them are married, 41% are widows and widowers and 14% are single. 54% are rated with severe dependence (grade II), 42.8% with high dependence (grade III). 86% live accompanied. 100% have an informal caregiver and a 95% of the times, the caregiver is a relative who in 73% of the cases the dedication time is permanent. The coverage of the SAD has an average of 4.27 hours per week and per user. The formal services most used are the technical (62%), also the assessment of an occupational therapist at home (57%) and the telecare service in a (56%). Conclusions. The SAD is used primarily for women in an advanced age and severe dependence. The informal assistance structures have an informal caregiver, being a member of the family mostly, living with the dependent, and mainly in a permanent dedication basis. The SAD has a varied intensity in each case. The formal support services complementary to the SAD, are largely used in all cases.

Real equilibrium exchange rates. A panel data approach for advanced and emerging economies.

Based on an behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model, this paper examines the determinants of the real effective exchange rate and evaluates the degree of misalignment of a group of currencies since 1980. Within a panel cointegration setting, we estimate the relationship between exchange rate and a set of economic fundamentals, such as traded-nontraded productivity differentials and the stock of foreign assets. Having ascertained the variables are integrated and cointegrated, the long-run equilibrium value of the fundamentals are estimated and used to derive equilibrium exchange rates and misalignments. Although there is statistical homogeneity, some structural differences were found to exist between advanced and emerging economies.

The black-white test score gap widens with age?

We re-examine the theoretical concept of a production function for cognitive achievement, and argue that an indirect production function that depends upon the variables that constrain parents' choices is both moretractable from an econometric point of view, and more interesting from an economic point of view than is a direct production function that depends upon a detailed list of direct inputs such as number of books in the household. We estimate flexible econometric models of indirect production functions for two achievement measures from the Woodcock-Johnson Revised battery, using data from two waves of the Child Development Supplement to the PSID. Elasticities of achievement measures with respect to family income and parents' educational levels are positive and significant. Gaps between scores of black and white children narrow or remain constant as children grow older, a result that differs from previous findings in the literature. The elasticities of achievement scores with respect to family income are substantially higher for children of black families, and there are some notable difference in elasticities with respect to parents' educational levels across blacks and whites.

Regulation in the Age of Globalization: The Difussion of Regulatory Agencies across Europe and Latin America

One of the most notable characteristics of the change in governance of the past two decades has been the restructuring of the state, most notably the delegation of authority from politicians and ministries to technocrats and regulatory agencies. Our unique dataset on the extent of these reforms in seven sectors in 36 countries reveals the widespread diffusion of these reforms in recent decades. In 1986 there were only 23 agencies across these sectors and countries (less than one agency per country); by 2002 this number had increased more than seven-fold, to 169. On average these 36 countries each have more than four agencies in the seven sectors studied. Yet the widespread diffusion of these reforms is characterized by cross-regional and cross-sectoral variations. Our data reveal two major variations: first, reforms are more widespread in economic regulation that in social spheres; second, regulatory agencies in the social spheres are more widespread in Europe than in Latin America. Why these variations in the spread of the reforms? In this paper we present for the first time the regulatory gaps across regions and sectors and then move on to offer some explanations for these gaps in a way that sheds some light on the nature of these reforms and on their limits. Our explanatory framework combines diffusion and structural explanations and in doing so sheds new light on the global diffusion of public policy ideas.

Old age mortality: a state of the art

This Phd research report aims to obtain a better understanding of the recent changes in mortality of the elderly population in developed countries. It’s essence will be a critical thinking, without performing empirical work, which means that the analysis and concepts of the actual demographic literature will form the main body of this work. There are two central questions: Which age and cause specific mortality trends caused these recent changes in the life expectancy?Did the increase in life expectancy of the elderly population accelerate, continue or decline in recent years?”

The Mediterranean in an Age of Globalisation

This paper reflects the contents of the Plenary Lecture addressed to the participants of the 2nd Graduate Conference, European Consortium for Political Science, Universitat Autonòma de Barcelona, 25 August 2008

Development of advanced silicon radiation detectors for high energy physics and medical imaging

The 1st chapter of this work presents the different experiments and collaborations in which I am involved during my PhD studies of Physics. Following those descriptions, the 2nd chapter is dedicated to how the radiation affects the silicon sensors, as well as some experimental measurements carried out at CERN (Geneve, Schwitzerland) and IFIC (Valencia, Spain) laboratories. Besides the previous investigation results, this chapter includes the most recent scientific papers appeared in the latest RD50 (Research & Development #50) Status Report, published in January 2007, as well as some others published this year. The 3rd and 4th are dedicated to the simulation of the electrical behavior of solid state detectors. In chapter 3 are reported the results obtained for the illumination of edgeless detectors irradiated at different fluences, in the framework of the TOSTER Collaboration. The 4th chapter reports about simulation design, simulation and fabrication of a novel 3D detector developed at CNM for ions detection in the future ITER fusion reactor. This chapter will be extended with irradiation simulations and experimental measurements in my PhD Thesis.

Asynchronous growth and competition in a two-sex age-structured population model

Asynchronous exponential growth has been extensively studied in population dynamics. In this paper we find out the asymptotic behaviour in a non-linear age-dependent model which takes into account sexual reproduction interactions. The main feature of our model is that the non-linear process converges to a linear one as the solution becomes large, so that the population undergoes asynchronous growth. The steady states analysis and the corresponding stability analysis are completely made and are summarized in a bifurcation diagram according to the parameter R0. Furthermore the effect of intraspecific competition is taken into account, leading to complex dynamics around steady states.

Optimal latent period in a bacteriophage population model structured by infection-age

We study the lysis timing of a bacteriophage population by means of a continuously infection-age-structured population dynamics model. The features of the model are the infection process of bacteria, the natural death process, and the lysis process which means the replication of bacteriophage viruses inside bacteria and the destruction of them. We consider that the length of the lysis timing (or latent period) is distributed according to a general probability distribution function. We have carried out an optimization procedure and we have found the latent period corresponding to the maximal fitness (i.e. maximal growth rate) of the bacteriophage population.

Like milk or wine: Does firm performance improve with age?

Our empirical literature review shows that little is known about how firm performance changes with age, presumably because of the paucity of data on firm age. For Spanish manufacturing firms, we analyse the firm performance related to firm age between 1998 and 2006. We find evidence that firms improve with age, because ageing firms are observed to have steadily increasing levels of productivity, higher profits, larger size, lower debt ratios, and higher equity ratios. Furthermore, older firms are better able to convert sales growth into subsequent growth of profits and productivity. On the other hand, we also found evidence that firm performance deteriorates with age. Older firms have lower expected growth rates of sales, profits and productivity, they have lower profitability levels (when other variables such as size are controlled for), and also that they appear to be less capable to convert employment growth into growth of sales, profits and productivity.