A finite-population revenue management model and a risk-ratio procedure for the joint estimation of population size and parameters

Many dynamic revenue management models divide the sale period into a finite number of periods T and assume, invoking a fine-enough grid of time, that each period sees at most one booking request. These Poisson-type assumptions restrict the variability of the demand in the model, but researchers and practitioners were willing to overlook this for the benefit of tractability of the models. In this paper, we criticize this model from another angle. Estimating the discrete finite-period model poses problems of indeterminacy and non-robustness: Arbitrarily fixing T leads to arbitrary control values and on the other hand estimating T from data adds an additional layer of indeterminacy. To counter this, we first propose an alternate finite-population model that avoids this problem of fixing T and allows a wider range of demand distributions, while retaining the useful marginal-value properties of the finite-period model. The finite-population model still requires jointly estimating market size and the parameters of the customer purchase model without observing no-purchases. Estimation of market-size when no-purchases are unobservable has rarely been attempted in the marketing or revenue management literature. Indeed, we point out that it is akin to the classical statistical problem of estimating the parameters of a binomial distribution with unknown population size and success probability, and hence likely to be challenging. However, when the purchase probabilities are given by a functional form such as a multinomial-logit model, we propose an estimation heuristic that exploits the specification of the functional form, the variety of the offer sets in a typical RM setting, and qualitative knowledge of arrival rates. Finally we perform simulations to show that the estimator is very promising in obtaining unbiased estimates of population size and the model parameters.

World population growth and fertility patterns, 1960-2000. A simple model explaining the evolution of world's fertility during the second half of the 20th Century

In this paper we attempt to describe the general reasons behind the world populationexplosion in the 20th century. The size of the population at the end of the century inquestion, deemed excessive by some, was a consequence of a dramatic improvementin life expectancies, attributable, in turn, to scientific innovation, the circulation ofinformation and economic growth. Nevertheless, fertility is a variable that plays acrucial role in differences in demographic growth. We identify infant mortality, femaleeducation levels and racial identity as important exogenous variables affecting fertility.It is estimated that in poor countries one additional year of primary schooling forwomen leads to 0.614 child less per couple on average (worldwide). While it may bepossible to identify a global tendency towards convergence in demographic trends,particular attention should be paid to the case of Africa, not only due to its differentdemographic patterns, but also because much of the continent's population has yet toexperience improvement in quality of life generally enjoyed across the rest of theplanet.

Patterns of variability of retinol levels in a harbour porpoise population from an unpolluted environment

Organochlorine compounds (OC) are known to induce vitamin A (retinoids) deficiency in mammals, which may be associated with impairment of immunocompetence, reproduction and growth. This makes retinoids a potentially useful biomarker of organochlorine impact on marine mammals. However, use of retinoids as a biomarker requires knowledge about its intrapopulation patterns of variation in natural conditions, information which is not currently available. We investigated these patterns in a cetacean population living in an unpolluted environment. 100 harbour porpoises Phocoena phocoena from West Greenland were sampled during the 1995 hunting season. Sex, age, morphometrics, nutritive condition, and retinol (following saponification) and OC levels in blubber were determined for each individual. OC levels found were extremely low and therefore considered unlikely to affect the population adversely: mean blubber concentrations, expressed on an extractable basis, were 2.04 (SD = 1.1) ppm for PCBs and 2.76 (SD = 1.66) ppm for tDDT. The mean blubber retinol concentration for the overall population was 59.66 (SD = 45.26) mu g g(-1). Taking into account the high contribution of blubber to body mass, blubber constitutes a significant body site for retinoid deposition in harbour porpoises. Retinol concentrations did not differ significantly between geographical regions or sexes, but they did correlate significantly (p <0.001) with age. Body condition, measured by determining the lipid content of the blubber, did not have a significant effect on retinol levels but the individuals examined were considered to be in an overall good nutritive condition. It is concluded that measurement of retinol concentrations in blubber samples is feasible and has a potential for use as a biomarker of organochlorine exposure in cetaceans. However, in order to do so, biological information, particularly age, is critical for the correct assessment of physiological impact

Linkages of dietary patterns, international trade and land use: the case of olive oil in the European Union

Within only two decades olive oil developed from a niche product which could hardly be found in food stores outside the producing regions towards an integrated component in the diets of industrial countries. This paper discusses the impacts of the promotion of the “healthy Mediterranean diet” on land use and agro-ecosystems in the producing countries. It examines the dynamics of olive oil production, trade and consumption in the EU15 in the period 1972 to 2003 and the links between dietary patterns, trade and land use. It analyses the underlying socio-economic driving forces behind the increasing spatial disconnect between production and consumption of olive oil in the EU15 and in particular in Spain, the world largest producer during the last three decades. In the observed period olive oil consumption increased 16 fold in the non-producing EU15 countries. In the geographically limited producing regions like Spain, the 5 fold increase in export production was associated with the rapid industrialization of olive production, the conversion of vast Mediterranean landscapes to olive monocultures and a range of environmental pressures. High amounts of subsidies of the European Common Agricultural Policy and feedback loops within production and consumption systems were driving the transformation of the olive oil system. Our analysis indicates the process of change was not immediately driven by increases in demand for olive oil in non-producing countries, but rather by the institutional setting of the European Union and by concerted political interventions.

What do women do? World population growth and fertility patterns, 1960-2000

In this paper we attempt to describe the general picture reasons behind the world population explosion during the 20th century. In general we comment that if, according to some, at the end of the 20th century there were too many people, this was has a consequence of scientific innovation, circulation of information, and economic growth, leading to a dramatic improvement in life expectancies. Nevertheless, a crucial variable shaping differences in demographic growth is fertility. In this paper we identify as important exogenous variables affecting fertility female education levels, infant mortality, and racial identity and diversity. It is estimated that three additional years of schooling for mothers leads on average (at the world level ) to one child less per couple. Even if we can identify a worldwide trend towards convergence in demographic trends, the African case needs to be given more attention, not only because of its different demographic patterns, but also because this is the continent where the worldwide movement towards a higher quality of life has not yet been achieved for an important share of the world's population.

Technology educational affordance: Bridging the gap between patterns of interaction and technology usage

Peer-reviewed

Teaching, sustainability and environment in UPC buildings

Universities must motivate future professionals so that they are able to apply their experience over and beyond the scientific and technological context. These professionals should also be trained so that they are aware of the current position as regards the economy and limited energy resources, and they must be creative, knowledgeable and committed if they are to rethink the current model.The Departments of Architectural Technology II and Applied Physics, in collaboration with the Interdisciplinary Centre of Technology, Innovation and Education for Sustainability (CITIES), believed that students could be given the opportunity to specialise in the area of sustainable development by means of their final theses [2]. With this objective in mind, a line of theses called Energy Assessments was created as part of the Plan for Resource Consumption Efficiency (PECR). The line was based on a learning strategy that focused on the student.The teaching staff was able to observe that, in terms of cognitive aspects, the students improved their knowledge of environmental issues and the associated skills, and that they were more able to solve problems in the area of sustainability and had greater concerns about this subject matter after having completed their theses.

Endogenous population subgroups: the best population partition and optimal number of groups

The aim of this paper is to suggest a method to find endogenously the points that group the individuals of a given distribution in k clusters, where k is endogenously determined. These points are the cut-points. Thus, we need to determine a partition of the N individuals into a number k of groups, in such way that individuals in the same group are as alike as possible, but as distinct as possible from individuals in other groups. This method can be applied to endogenously identify k groups in income distributions: possible applications can be poverty

Psychological aspects of the experiences of athletes at the Olympic Villages: issues and challenges

Article providing the athlete perspective on Olympic Villages. This article was published in the book entitled "Olympic Villages: a hundred years of urban planning and shared experiences" compiling the papers given at the 1997 International Symposium on International Chair in Olympism (IOC-UAB).

Comparing Governmental Agendas: Evolution of the Prioritization of Issues in the USA and Spain

This paper is the first step in a long term project investigating policy stability and change in Spain from an agenda setting perspective and comparing the Spanish policy agenda to that of other advanced democracies. Here we begin to compare the allocation of issue attention in Spain and the USA by comparing the substance of annual President and Prime Minister speeches from 1982 to 2005. Existing research argues that the public agenda has become more crowded, competitive and volatile in recent years. We find that in both countries there has been a transformation of the political agenda towards an increasing diversity of issues. However, most of the volatility in executive attention seems to be explained by salient events rather than by issue crowding. We conclude by discussing some limitations of executive speeches as a measure of governmental issue attention and directions for future research.

Comparing the early research performance of PhD graduates in labor economics in Europe and the USA

This paper analyzes the early research performance of PhD graduates in labor economics, addressing the following questions: Are there major productivity differences between graduates from American and European institutions? If so, how relevant is the quality of the training received (i.e. ranking of institution and supervisor) and the research environment in the subsequent job placement institution? The population under study consists of labor economics PhD graduates who received their degree in the years 2000 to 2005 in Europe or the USA. Research productivity is evaluated alternatively as the number of publications or the quality-adjusted number of publications of an individual. When restricting the analysis to the number of publications, results suggest a higher productivity by graduates from European universities than from USA universities, but this difference vanishes when accounting for the quality of the publication. The results also indicate that graduates placed at American institutions, in particular top ones, are likely to publish more quality-adjusted articles than their European counterparts. This may be because, when hired, they already have several good acceptances or because of more focused research efforts and clearer career incentives.

Chaos and order in the contemporary city. The impact of urban spatial structure on population density and commuting distance in Barcelona, 1986-2001.

One of the criticisms leveled at the model of dispersed city found all over the world is its unarticulated, random, and undifferentiated nature. To check this idea in the Barcelona Metropolitan Region, we estimated the impact of the urban spatial structure (CBD, subcenters and transportation infrastructures) over the population density and commuting distance. The results are unfavorable to the hypothesis of the increasing destructuring of cities given that the explanatory capacity of both functions improves over time, both when other control variables are not included and when they are included.

Adaption of Courses and Learning Environment to the User Context in dotLRN

The explosive growth of Internet during the last years has been reflected in the ever-increasing amount of the diversity and heterogeneity of user preferences, types and features of devices and access networks. Usually the heterogeneity in the context of the users which request Web contents is not taken into account by the servers that deliver them implying that these contents will not always suit their needs. In the particular case of e-learning platforms this issue is especially critical due to the fact that it puts at stake the knowledge acquired by their users. In the following paper we present a system that aims to provide the dotLRN e-learning platform with the capability to adapt to its users context. By integrating dotLRN with a multi-agent hypermedia system, online courses being undertaken by students as well as their learning environment are adapted in real time

An analysis of the metabolic patterns of two rural communities affected by soy expansion in the North of Argentina

The soy expansion model in Argentina generates structural changes in traditional lifestyles that can be associated with different biophysical and socioeconomic impacts. To explore this issue, we apply an innovative method for integrated assessment - the Multi Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM) framework - to characterize two communities in the Chaco Region, Province of Formosa, North of Argentina. These communities have recently experienced the expansion of soy production, altering their economic activity, energy consumption patterns, land use, and human time allocation. The integrated characterization presented in the paper illustrates the differences (biophysical, socioeconomic, and historical) between the two communities that can be associated with different responses. The analysis of the factors behind these differences has important policy implications for the sustainable development of local communities in the area.

Debt and deficit fluctuations and the structure of bond markets

This paper tests for the market environment within which US fiscal policyoperates, that is we test for the incompleteness of the US government bondmarket. We document the stochastic properties of US debt and deficits andthen consider the ability of competing optimal tax models to account forthis behaviour. We show that when a government pursues an optimal taxpolicy and issues a full set of contingent claims, the value of debthas the same or less persistence than other variables in the economyand declines in response to higher deficit shocks. By contrast, ifgovernments only issue one-period risk free bonds (incomplete markets),debt shows more persistence than other variables and it increases inresponse to expenditure shocks. Maintaining the hypothesis of Ramseybehavior, US data conflicts.