When do central banks prefer to intervene secretly?

Central banks often intervene secretly in the foreign exchange market. This secrecy seems to be at odds with the signalling channel. In this article we will analyse when a central bank intervening in the foreign exchange rate market purely through the signalling channel would prefer to act secretly or publicly. By using a microstructure model, we will show that the consistency of the intervention with fundamentals, the volume of noise trading, the weight given to the effectiveness of intervention and the degree of superior information held by the central bank will influence the decision to intervene secretly or publicly. Keywords: foreign exchange intervention, market microstructure. JEL Classifi…cation: D82, E58, F31, G14.

Co-movements between US and UK stock prices: the roles of macroeconomic information and time-series varying conditional correlations

This paper provides evidence on the sources of co-movement in monthly US and UK stock price movements by investigating the role of macroeconomic and financial variables in a bivariate system with time-varying conditional correlations. Crosscountry communality in response is uncovered, with changes in the US Federal Funds rate, UK bond yields and oil prices having similar negative effects in both markets. Other variables also play a role, especially for the UK market. These effects do not, however, explain the marked increase in cross-market correlations observed from around 2000, which we attribute to time variation in the correlations of shocks to these markets. A regime-switching smooth transition model captures this time variation well and shows the correlations increase dramatically around 1999-2000. JEL classifications: C32, C51, G15 Keywords: international stock returns, DCC-GARCH model, smooth transition conditional correlation GARCH model, model evaluation.

Deconstructing Shocks and Persistence in OECD Real Exchange Rates

This paper analyzes the persistence of shocks that affect the real exchange rates for a panel of seventeen OECD developed countries during the post-Bretton Woods era. The adoption of a panel data framework allows us to distinguish two different sources of shocks, i.e. the idiosyncratic and the common shocks, each of which may have di¤erent persistence patterns on the real exchange rates. We first investigate the stochastic properties of the panel data set using panel stationarity tests that simultaneously consider both the presence of cross-section dependence and multiple structural breaks that have not received much attention in previous persistence analyses. Empirical results indicate that real exchange rates are non-stationary when the analysis does not account for structural breaks, although this conclusion is reversed when they are modeled. Consequently, misspecification errors due to the non-consideration of structural breaks leads to upward biased shocks' persistence measures. The persistence measures for the idiosyncratic and common shocks have been estimated in this paper always turn out to be less than one year.

Economic effects of road accessibility in the Pyrenees: user perspective

At present, Spain faces one of the key moments in planning the future design of the infrastructure network. As a consequence of the critical role played by haulage in intra-European trade, the most important investments are those that guarantee that road haulage traffic can move freely at the borders. That is why it is necessary to make serious evaluations of the economic and social profitability of these investments. Normally the most significant social benefit of investment projects in transport infrastructure is time saving, which in turn changes traffic intensity. In this article we analyse the changes in the user excess caused by public investment in transport infrastructure planned by the Spanish government and which will be located on the border between Spain and France. In particular, we study the increase in network user surplus for HGV traffic in the Spanish and French border zones in the Pyrenees.

New evidence of the real interest rate parity for OECD countries using panel unit root tests with breaks

This paper tests for real interest parity (RIRP) among the nineteen major OECD countries over the period 1978:Q2-1998:Q4. The econometric methods applied consist of combining the use of several unit root or stationarity tests designed for panels valid under cross-section dependence and presence of multiple structural breaks. Our results strongly support the fulfillment of the weak version of the RIRP for the studied period once dependence and structural breaks are accounted for.

Treball de recerca: tant tu com jo

Treball de recerca realitzat per alumnes d’ensenyament secundari i guardonat amb un Premi CIRIT per fomentar l'esperit científic del Jovent l’any 2008. La pastilla anticonceptiva masculina és un producte químicament possible però encara no llençat al mercat. El motiu de la recerca ha estat investigar per comprovar si el disseny d’una campanya de màrqueting tindria èxit en la promoció d’aquest producte. En primer lloc, s’ha dut a terme una recerca teòrica sobre l’anticoncepció i el màrqueting. En segon lloc, s’ha realitzat un treball de camp en dues parts. D’una banda s’han confeccionat enquestes avaluant l’acceptació del producte en la població. De l’altra s’han realitzat entrevistes a professionals: sexòleg-psicòleg, ginecòleg, publicista i farmacèutica.Posteriorment s’ha dissenyat la campanya de màrqueting, gravat l’espot televisiu i dissenyat una pàgina web.

The Mediterranean in an Age of Globalisation

This paper reflects the contents of the Plenary Lecture addressed to the participants of the 2nd Graduate Conference, European Consortium for Political Science, Universitat Autonòma de Barcelona, 25 August 2008

Stock market integration between new EU member states and the Euro-zone

This paper measures the degree in stock market integration between five Eastern European countries and the Euro-zone. A potentially gradual transition in correlations is accommodated by smooth transition conditional correlation models. We find that the correlation between stock markets has increased from 2001 to 2007. In particular, the Czech and Polish markets show a higher correlation to the Euro-zone. However, this is not a broad-based phenomenon across Eastern Europe. We also find that the increase in correlations is not a reflection of a world-wide phenomenon of financial integration but appears to be specific to the European market. JEL classifications: C32; C51; F36; G15 Keywords: Multivariate GARCH; Smooth Transition Conditional Correlation; Stock Return Comovement; New EU Members.

Progress Towards to Equity Market Integration in Eastern Europe

The advent of the European Union has decreased the diversification benefits available from country based equity market indices in the region. This paper measures the increase in stock integration between the three largest new EU members (Hungary, the Czech Republic and Poland who joined in May 2004) and the Euro-zone. A potentially gradual transition in correlations is accommodated in a single VAR model by embedding smooth transition conditional correlation models with fat tails, spillovers, volatility clustering, and asymmetric volatility effects. At the country market index level all three Eastern European markets show a considerable increase in correlations in 2006. At the industry level the dates and transition periods for the correlations differ, and the correlations are lower although also increasing. The results show that sectoral indices in Eastern European markets may provide larger diversification opportunities than the aggregate market. JEL classifications: C32; C51; F36; G15 Keywords: Multivariate GARCH; Smooth Transition Conditional Correlation; Stock Return Comovement; Sectoral correlations; New EU Members

Incidència social i ecològica de l'ús del biodièsel

Treball de recerca realitzat per una alumna d’ensenyament secundari i guardonat amb un Premi CIRIT per fomentar l'esperit científic del Jovent l’any 2008. S’analitza com pot afectar l’ús dels biocombustibles, i més concretament del biodièsel, en l’economia global i de la Unió Europea; en l’agricultura dels països subdesenvolupats, i en la possible millora ecològica del planeta.

Why the EU does not Have an Independent Competition Agency: French Interests and Transaction Costs in Early European Integration

A major achievement of new institutionalism in economics and political science is the formalisation of the idea that certain policies are more efficient when administered by a politically independent organisation. Based on this insight, several policy actors and scholars criticise the European Community for relying too much on a multi-task, collegial, and politicised organisation, the European Commission. This raises important questions, some constitutional (who should be able to change the corresponding procedural rules?) and some political-economic (is Europe truly committed to free and competitive markets?). Though acknowledging the relevance of legal and normative arguments, this paper contributes to the debate with a positive political-scientific perspective. Based on the view that institutional equilibria raise the question of equilibrium institutions, it shows that collegiality was (a) an equilibrium institution during the Paris negotiations of 1950-51; and (b) an institutional equilibrium for the following 50 years. The conclusion points to some recent changes in the way that European competition policy is implemented, and discusses how these affect the “constitutional” principle of collegial European governance.

Xilax, creació i llançament d'un producte nou

Treball de recerca realitzat per un alumne d’ensenyament secundari i guardonat amb un Premi CIRIT per fomentar l'esperit científic del Jovent l’any 2008. S’ha desenvolupat el llançament d’un nou producte al mercat farmacèutic, concretament un xiclet. Per començar s’ha estudiat la composició química del xiclet i com actua de vehicle de principis actius des del punt de vista farmacològic. Simultàniament s’ha dissenyat un xiclet amb propietats terapèutiques, assegurant-se que no existeix al mercat i que és innovador. A partir de la definició del producte i de l’anàlisi dels mètodes tradicionals de fabricació, s’ha optimitzat el procés de fabricació per control de variables. Quan s’ha tingut el prototipus del producte, s’ha avaluat en relació amb els objectius marcats. Finalment s’ha estudiat la viabilitat econòmica. Després d’haver refusat diferents idees de nou producte, per no innovadores o per inviables, s’ha pogut optimitzar el procés de fabricació, s’han ajustat les variables i s’ha obtingut el producte definit com a objectiu. L’estudi de viabilitat econòmica el fa rentable, i està a punt per a la comercialització.

The international trade as the sole engine of growth for an economy

Can international trade act as the sole engine of growth for an economy? If yes, what are the mechanisms through which trade operates in transmitting permanent growth? This paper answers these questions with two simple two-country models, in which only one country enjoys sustained growth in autarky. The models differ in the assumptions on technical change, which is either labour- or capital-augmenting. In both cases, the stagnant economy imports growth by trading. In the first model, growth is transmitted because of permanent increases in the trade volume. In the alternative framework, the stagnant economy imports sustained growth because its terms of trade permanently improve.

La recerca d'una regulació del comerç internacional de diamants

Els esforços de les campanyes fetes per les ONG van portar a un primer plànol internacional els diamants de guerra - els conflictes lligats als conflictes armats -a finals dels anys noranta. Com a resposta, es va formar el Procés de Kimberley (PK), un fòrum negociador entre estats, ONG i indústria, per debatre possibles solucions que posessin fre al comerç de diamants de guerra. Menys de tres anys després es va adoptar un sistema voluntari de certificació internacional anomenat Sistema de Certificació del Procés de Kimberley (SCPK). El SCPK regula el comerç de diamants en brut certificant tots els diamants legals. Aquest article repassa el problema dels diamants de guerra, explica com una campanya internacional va despertar la consciència sobre el problema, i com el procés de recerca de solucions va culminar en el PK. L’ anàlisi es centra en els diferents actors implicats (ONG, estats i indústria) i les seves interaccions canviants al llarg de la campanya i dels esforços realitzats per crear una regulació internacional. Com a conclusió, es destaquen algunes lliçons fonamentals, en termes analítics i d’acció, derivats d’aquest estudi de cas.

The Quest for Regulating the Global Diamond Trade

Campaign efforts by NGOs initially put conflict diamonds on the global radar screen in the late 1990s. In response, the Kimberley Process (KP), a negotiation forum between states, NGOs, and industry, was formed to discuss possible solutions to curb the trade in conflict diamonds. Less than three years later, a voluntary, global certification named the Kimberley Process Certification Scheme (KPCS) was adopted. The KPCS regulates the trade of rough diamonds by certifying all legitimate diamonds. This paper outlines the problem of conflict diamonds, how a global campaign raised awareness about the issue, and how the process of solution building unfolded in the KP. My analysis focuses on the diverse set of actors (NGOs, states, and industry) and their changing interactions over the course of the campaign and global regulation efforts. I conclude with several key lessons that capture important elements observed in this case study.