Unemployment, growth and fiscal policy: new insights on the hysteresis hypothesis

We develop a growth model with unemployment due to imperfections in the labor market. In this model, wage inertia and balanced budget rules cause a complementarity between capital and employment capable of explaining the existence of multiple equilibrium paths. Hysteresis is viewed as the result of a selection between these diferent equilibrium paths. We use this model to argue that, in contrast to the US, those fiscal policies followed by most of the European countries after the shocks of the 1970’s may have played a central role in generating hysteresis.

Reconocimiento geofísico del deslizamiento de Rosiana (depresión de Tirajana, Gran Canaria)

The landslide of Rosiana is considered the largest slope movement amongst those known in historical times in Gran Canana, Canary Islands. It has been activated at least 4 times in the last century, and in the movement of 1956, when about 3.106 m3 of materials were involved, 250 people had to be evacuated and many buildings were destroyed. The present geological hazard has lead to specific studies of the phenomenon which, once characterised, can be used as a guide for the scientific and technical works that are to be made in this or similar areas. This paper wants to increase the knowledge about the unstable mass of Rosiana by using geophysical techniques based on the method of seismic by refraction. The geophysical measues have been interpreted with the aid of the available geomorphologic data, thus obtaining a first approximation to the geometry of the slope movements

Socio-economic benefits of using space technologies to monitor and respond to earthquakes

Earthquakes represent a major hazard for populations around the world, causing frequent loss of life,human suffering and enormous damage to homes, other buildings and infrastructure. The Technology Resources forEarthquake Monitoring and Response (TREMOR) Team of 36 space professionals analysed this problem over thecourse of the International Space University Summer Session Program and published their recommendations in the formof a report. The TREMOR Team proposes a series of space- and ground-based systems to provide improved capabilityto manage earthquakes. The first proposed system is a prototype earthquake early-warning system that improves theexisting knowledge of earthquake precursors and addresses the potential of these phenomena. Thus, the system willat first enable the definitive assessment of whether reliable earthquake early warning is possible through precursormonitoring. Should the answer be affirmative, the system itself would then form the basis of an operational earlywarningsystem. To achieve these goals, the authors propose a multi-variable approach in which the system will combine,integrate and process precursor data from space- and ground-based seismic monitoring systems (already existing andnew proposed systems) and data from a variety of related sources (e.g. historical databases, space weather data, faultmaps). The second proposed system, the prototype earthquake simulation and response system, coordinates the maincomponents of the response phase to reduce the time delays of response operations, increase the level of precisionin the data collected, facilitate communication amongst teams, enhance rescue and aid capabilities and so forth. It isbased in part on an earthquake simulator that will provide pre-event (if early warning is proven feasible) and post-eventdamage assessment and detailed data of the affected areas to corresponding disaster management actors by means of ageographic information system (GIS) interface. This is coupled with proposed mobile satellite communication hubs toprovide links between response teams. Business- and policy-based implementation strategies for these proposals, suchas the establishment of a non-governmental organisation to develop and operate the systems, are included.

Valores medios del coeficiente de atenuación de las ondas Rayleigh para Europa occidental

En este estudio presentamos los valores medios del coeficiente de atenuación de las ondas Rayleigh para Europa occidental, obtenidos a partir del estudio de tres terremotos situados en las Azores, Sicilia y Mar Negro y registrados por estaciones europeas. Los resultados presentan una gran dispersión, mostrando claramente la inhomogeneidad de la zona. Para el terremoto del Atlántico, los resultados son muy coherentes y presentan unos valores del coeficiente de atenuación comparables, aunque ligeramente superiores para periodos cortos, a los haliados para la region estable de la placa Euroasiática.

Anelasticidad de la zona estable euroasiática y de la zona europea occidental

La teoria de inversión en su forma estocastica ha sido aplicada a dos conjuntos de coeficientes de atenuación de las ondas de Rayleigh correspondientes a la zona estable Euroasiatica y a la zona Europea Occidental. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que las propiedades anelásticas bajo dichas zonas son distintas. Europa Occidental se halla caracterizada por valores mas bajos de los factores especificos de calidad de las ondas de cizalla(Qbeta) que los correspondientes a la zona Estable Euroasiática. Las profundiades a las que los valores de Qbeta decrecen más rápidamente son alrededorde 60 km para Europa Occidental y de 40 km para la zona Estable Euroasiática. La comparación con un estudio de atenuación en el Océano Atlántico muestra que los coeficientes de atenuación correspondientes a la zona Europea Occidental pueden ser considerados representativos para dicha zona.

Can a Halo CME from the limb be geoeffective?

The probability for a halo coronal mass ejection (CME) to be geoeffective is assumed to be higher the closer the CME launch site is located to the solar central meridian. However, events far from the central meridian may produce severe geomagnetic storms, like the case in April 2000. In this work, we study the possible geoeffectiveness of full halo CMEs with the source region situated at solar limb. For this task, we select all limb full halo (LFH) CMEs that occurred during solar cycle 23, and we search for signatures of geoeffectiveness between 1 and 5 days after the first appearance of each CME in the LASCO C2 field of view. When signatures of geomagnetic activity are observed in the selected time window, interplanetary data are carefully analyzed in order to look for the cause of the geomagnetic disturbance. Finally, a possible association between geoeffective interplanetary signatures and every LFH CME in solar cycle 23 is checked in order to decide on the CME's geoeffectiveness. After a detailed analysis of solar, interplanetary, and geomagnetic data, we conclude that of the 25 investigated events, there are only four geoeffective LFH CMEs, all coming from the west limb. The geoeffectiveness of these events seems to be moderate, turning to intense in two of them as a result of cumulative effects from previous mass ejections. We conclude that ejections from solar locations close to the west limb should be considered in space weather, at least as sources of moderate disturbances.

Heat pulse line-source method to determine thermal conductivity of consolidated rocks

An instrument designed to measure thermal conductivity of consolidated rocks, dry or saturated, using a transient method is presented. The instrument measures relative values of the thermal conductivity, and it needs calibration to obtain absolute values. The device can be used as heat pulse line source and as continuous heat line source. Two parameters to determine thermal conductivity are proposed: TMAX, in heat pulse line source, and SLOPE, in continuous heat line source. Its performance is better, and the operation simpler, in heat pulse line-source mode with a measuring time of 170 s and a reproducibility better than 2.5%. The sample preparation is very simple on both modes. The performance has been tested with a set of ten rocks with thermal conductivity values between 1.4 and 5.2 W m¿1 K¿1 which covers the usual range for consolidated rocks.

Réplica a las objeciones presentadas por el Sr. Juan Ullastre a la parte gráfica que ilustra un artículo de geofísica del Berguedá y Solsonés (Pre-Pirineo Catalán)

El comentario que con el título de 'Objeciones a la parte gráfica .que ilustra un artículo de geofísica del Berguedá y Solsonés' realiza J.Ullastre a nuestro artículo 'Aportaciones de la prospección geofísica al estudio del subsuelo del Berguedá y Solsonés' publicado en el volumen 27 de esta revista dedicado en homenaje al Dr Oriol Riba, presenta algunos aspectos formales y otros de fondo que merece la pena puntualizar.

Modelización Gravimétrica 3D del diapiro de Cardona, Cuenca del Ebro (NE de España)

En este trabajo se presentan los resultados derivados de la interpretacón de 320 estaciones gravimétricas realizadas sobre el diapiro de Cardona con el objetivo de obtener información sobre su geometría tridimensional. Para obtener una distribución tridimensional de la masa salina que explique las anomalías observadas se ha aplicado un método iterativo de ajustes sucesivos basado en un algoritmo de inversión automática. Esta metodología ha mostrado ser muy rápida, fácil de usar y con suficiente poder de resolución para perfilar no sólo la geometría del cuerpo salino, sino también la de estructuras similares. El diapiro salino de Cardona presenta un mínimo gravimétrico relacionado con el anticlinal de Pins-Cardona que se prolonga hacia el SW. El análisis cualitativo de la anomalía residual permite apreciar que el diapiro muestra una cierta vergencia hacia sur con un flanco sureste subvertical y un flanco noroeste con pendientes más suaves.

Can a Halo CME from the limb be geoeffective?

The probability for a halo coronal mass ejection (CME) to be geoeffective is assumed to be higher the closer the CME launch site is located to the solar central meridian. However, events far from the central meridian may produce severe geomagnetic storms, like the case in April 2000. In this work, we study the possible geoeffectiveness of full halo CMEs with the source region situated at solar limb. For this task, we select all limb full halo (LFH) CMEs that occurred during solar cycle 23, and we search for signatures of geoeffectiveness between 1 and 5 days after the first appearance of each CME in the LASCO C2 field of view. When signatures of geomagnetic activity are observed in the selected time window, interplanetary data are carefully analyzed in order to look for the cause of the geomagnetic disturbance. Finally, a possible association between geoeffective interplanetary signatures and every LFH CME in solar cycle 23 is checked in order to decide on the CME's geoeffectiveness. After a detailed analysis of solar, interplanetary, and geomagnetic data, we conclude that of the 25 investigated events, there are only four geoeffective LFH CMEs, all coming from the west limb. The geoeffectiveness of these events seems to be moderate, turning to intense in two of them as a result of cumulative effects from previous mass ejections. We conclude that ejections from solar locations close to the west limb should be considered in space weather, at least as sources of moderate disturbances.

Forecasting the Earth"s radiation belts and modeling solar energetic particle events: Recent results from SPACECAST

High-energy charged particles in the van Allen radiation belts and in solar energetic particle events can damage satellites on orbit leading to malfunctions and loss of satellite service. Here we describe some recent results from the SPACECAST project on modelling and forecasting the radiation belts, and modelling solar energetic particle events. We describe the SPACECAST forecasting system that uses physical models that include wave-particle interactions to forecast the electron radiation belts up to 3 h ahead. We show that the forecasts were able to reproduce the >2 MeV electron flux at GOES 13 during the moderate storm of 7-8 October 2012, and the period following a fast solar wind stream on 25-26 October 2012 to within a factor of 5 or so. At lower energies of 10- a few 100 keV we show that the electron flux at geostationary orbit depends sensitively on the high-energy tail of the source distribution near 10 RE on the nightside of the Earth, and that the source is best represented by a kappa distribution. We present a new model of whistler mode chorus determined from multiple satellite measurements which shows that the effects of wave-particle interactions beyond geostationary orbit are likely to be very significant. We also present radial diffusion coefficients calculated from satellite data at geostationary orbit which vary with Kp by over four orders of magnitude. We describe a new automated method to determine the position at the shock that is magnetically connected to the Earth for modelling solar energetic particle events and which takes into account entropy, and predict the form of the mean free path in the foreshock, and particle injection efficiency at the shock from analytical theory which can be tested in simulations.

Forecasting the Earth"s radiation belts and modeling solar energetic particle events: Recent results from SPACECAST

High-energy charged particles in the van Allen radiation belts and in solar energetic particle events can damage satellites on orbit leading to malfunctions and loss of satellite service. Here we describe some recent results from the SPACECAST project on modelling and forecasting the radiation belts, and modelling solar energetic particle events. We describe the SPACECAST forecasting system that uses physical models that include wave-particle interactions to forecast the electron radiation belts up to 3 h ahead. We show that the forecasts were able to reproduce the >2 MeV electron flux at GOES 13 during the moderate storm of 7-8 October 2012, and the period following a fast solar wind stream on 25-26 October 2012 to within a factor of 5 or so. At lower energies of 10- a few 100 keV we show that the electron flux at geostationary orbit depends sensitively on the high-energy tail of the source distribution near 10 RE on the nightside of the Earth, and that the source is best represented by a kappa distribution. We present a new model of whistler mode chorus determined from multiple satellite measurements which shows that the effects of wave-particle interactions beyond geostationary orbit are likely to be very significant. We also present radial diffusion coefficients calculated from satellite data at geostationary orbit which vary with Kp by over four orders of magnitude. We describe a new automated method to determine the position at the shock that is magnetically connected to the Earth for modelling solar energetic particle events and which takes into account entropy, and predict the form of the mean free path in the foreshock, and particle injection efficiency at the shock from analytical theory which can be tested in simulations.

Estructura y relleno sedimentario de la semifosa neógena de Vilanova (Garraf, Barcelona)

En el presente trabajo se aborda el estudio de una cuenca sedimentaria mediante la utilización conjunta de técnicas de cartografía geológica y datos de subsuelo, provenientes del análisis de sondeos mecánicos y de la determinación de las anomalías de la gravedad. La cuenca presenta una geometría asimétrica en forma de semigraben orientado segun la dirección regional ENE-OSO, controlado por fallas normales en dicha dirección en su límite NO, mientras que por el SE está delimitado por una discordancia. La existencia de un sistema asociado de fracturas, ortogonalmente dispuestas, complica el dispositivo anterior, resultando un basamento estructurado en bloques que configuran pequeñas subcuencas. La modelización gravimétrica de la cuenca en 3D ha permitido obtener un modelo de gran resolución para la geometria del basamento. El modelo geofísico obtenido ha sido contrastado con los datos provenientes de los sondeos...

Prospección gravimétrica en el sistema transversal catalán

En el presente trabajo se plantea la elaboración e interpretación del mapa de anomalas de Bouguer del Sistema Transversal Catalán. La característica más destacada del mapa es el marcado dominio de la tendencia regional, producida por el aumento de grosor de la corteza terrestre hacia el NW. La sustracción de este efecto regional se ha realizado utilizando el método de ajuste a superficies polinómicas por mínimos cuadrados. La interpretacin cuantitativa del mapa de anomalas residuales obtenido refleja la estructura en bloques del basamento.

Estructura y relleno sedimentario de la semifosa neógena de Vilanova (Garraf, Barcelona)

En el presente trabajo se aborda el estudio de una cuenca sedimentaria mediante la utilización conjunta de técnicas de cartografía geológica y datos de subsuelo, provenientes del análisis de sondeos mecánicos y de la determinación de las anomalías de la gravedad. La cuenca presenta una geometría asimétrica en forma de semigraben orientado segun la dirección regional ENE-OSO, controlado por fallas normales en dicha dirección en su límite NO, mientras que por el SE está delimitado por una discordancia. La existencia de un sistema asociado de fracturas, ortogonalmente dispuestas, complica el dispositivo anterior, resultando un basamento estructurado en bloques que configuran pequeñas subcuencas. La modelización gravimétrica de la cuenca en 3D ha permitido obtener un modelo de gran resolución para la geometria del basamento. El modelo geofísico obtenido ha sido contrastado con los datos provenientes de los sondeos...