Prediction of Childhood Asthma Using Conditional Probability and Discrete Event Simulation

Abstract: Asthma prevalence in children and adolescents in Spain is 10-17%. It is the most common chronic illness during childhood. Prevalence has been increasing over the last 40 years and there is considerable evidence that, among other factors, continued exposure to cigarette smoke results in asthma in children. No statistical or simulation model exist to forecast the evolution of childhood asthma in Europe. Such a model needs to incorporate the main risk factors that can be managed by medical authorities, such as tobacco (OR = 1.44), to establish how they affect the present generation of children. A simulation model using conditional probability and discrete event simulation for childhood asthma was developed and validated by simulating realistic scenario. The parameters used for the model (input data) were those found in the bibliography, especially those related to the incidence of smoking in Spain. We also used data from a panel of experts from the Hospital del Mar (Barcelona) related to actual evolution and asthma phenotypes. The results obtained from the simulation established a threshold of a 15-20% smoking population for a reduction in the prevalence of asthma. This is still far from the current level in Spain, where 24% of people smoke. We conclude that more effort must be made to combat smoking and other childhood asthma risk factors, in order to significantly reduce the number of cases. Once completed, this simulation methodology can realistically be used to forecast the evolution of childhood asthma as a function of variation in different risk factors.

Epigenetic alterations in hippocampus of SAMP8 senescent mice and modulation by voluntary physical exercise.

The senescence-accelerated SAMP8 mouse model displays features of cognitive decline and Alzheimer's disease. With the purpose of identifying potential epigenetic markers involved in aging and neurodegeneration, here we analyzed the expression of 84 mature miRNAs, the expression of histone-acetylation regulatory genes and the global histone acetylation in the hippocampus of 8-month-old SAMP8 mice, using SAMR1 mice as control. We also examined the modulation of these parameters by 8 weeks of voluntary exercise. Twenty-one miRNAs were differentially expressed between sedentary SAMP8 and SAMR1 mice and seven miRNAs were responsive to exercise in both strains. SAMP8 mice showed alterations in genes involved in protein acetylation homeostasis such as Sirt1 and Hdac6 and modulation of Hdac3 and Hdac5 gene expression by exercise. Global histone H3 acetylation levels were reduced in SAMP8 compared with SAMR1 mice and reached control levels in response to exercise. In sum, data presented here provide new candidate epigenetic markers for aging and neurodegeneration and suggest that exercise training may prevent or delay some epigenetic alterations associated with accelerated aging.

Epigenetic alterations in hippocampus of SAMP8 senescent mice and modulation by voluntary physical exercise.

The senescence-accelerated SAMP8 mouse model displays features of cognitive decline and Alzheimer's disease. With the purpose of identifying potential epigenetic markers involved in aging and neurodegeneration, here we analyzed the expression of 84 mature miRNAs, the expression of histone-acetylation regulatory genes and the global histone acetylation in the hippocampus of 8-month-old SAMP8 mice, using SAMR1 mice as control. We also examined the modulation of these parameters by 8 weeks of voluntary exercise. Twenty-one miRNAs were differentially expressed between sedentary SAMP8 and SAMR1 mice and seven miRNAs were responsive to exercise in both strains. SAMP8 mice showed alterations in genes involved in protein acetylation homeostasis such as Sirt1 and Hdac6 and modulation of Hdac3 and Hdac5 gene expression by exercise. Global histone H3 acetylation levels were reduced in SAMP8 compared with SAMR1 mice and reached control levels in response to exercise. In sum, data presented here provide new candidate epigenetic markers for aging and neurodegeneration and suggest that exercise training may prevent or delay some epigenetic alterations associated with accelerated aging.

Sherali-Adams Relaxations and Indistinguishability in Counting Logics

Two graphs with adjacency matrices $\mathbf{A}$ and $\mathbf{B}$ are isomorphic if there exists a permutation matrix $\mathbf{P}$ for which the identity $\mathbf{P}^{\mathrm{T}} \mathbf{A} \mathbf{P} = \mathbf{B}$ holds. Multiplying through by $\mathbf{P}$ and relaxing the permutation matrix to a doubly stochastic matrix leads to the linear programming relaxation known as fractional isomorphism. We show that the levels of the Sherali--Adams (SA) hierarchy of linear programming relaxations applied to fractional isomorphism interleave in power with the levels of a well-known color-refinement heuristic for graph isomorphism called the Weisfeiler--Lehman algorithm, or, equivalently, with the levels of indistinguishability in a logic with counting quantifiers and a bounded number of variables. This tight connection has quite striking consequences. For example, it follows immediately from a deep result of Grohe in the context of logics with counting quantifiers that a fixed number of levels of SA suffice to determine isomorphism of planar and minor-free graphs. We also offer applications in both finite model theory and polyhedral combinatorics. First, we show that certain properties of graphs, such as that of having a flow circulation of a prescribed value, are definable in the infinitary logic with counting with a bounded number of variables. Second, we exploit a lower bound construction due to Cai, Fürer, and Immerman in the context of counting logics to give simple explicit instances that show that the SA relaxations of the vertex-cover and cut polytopes do not reach their integer hulls for up to $\Omega(n)$ levels, where $n$ is the number of vertices in the graph.

Discrete devaluations and multiple equilibria in a first generation model of currency crises

The first generation models of currency crises have often been criticized because they predict that, in the absence of very large triggering shocks, currency attacks should be predictable and lead to small devaluations. This paper shows that these features of first generation models are not robust to the inclusion of private information. In particular, this paper analyzes a generalization of the Krugman-Flood-Garber (KFG) model, which relaxes the assumption that all consumers are perfectly informed about the level of fundamentals. In this environment, the KFG equilibrium of zero devaluation is only one of many possible equilibria. In all the other equilibria, the lack of perfect information delays the attack on the currency past the point at which the shadow exchange rate equals the peg, giving rise to unpredictable and discrete devaluations.

Statistical mechanics of multi-edge networks

Statistical properties of binary complex networks are well understood and recently many attempts have been made to extend this knowledge to weighted ones. There are, however, subtle yet important considerations to be made regarding the nature of the weights used in this generalization. Weights can be either continuous or discrete magnitudes, and in the latter case, they can additionally have undistinguishable or distinguishable nature. This fact has not been addressed in the literature insofar and has deep implications on the network statistics. In this work we face this problem introducing multiedge networks as graphs where multiple (distinguishable) connections between nodes are considered. We develop a statistical mechanics framework where it is possible to get information about the most relevant observables given a large spectrum of linear and nonlinear constraints including those depending both on the number of multiedges per link and their binary projection. The latter case is particularly interesting as we show that binary projections can be understood from multiedge processes. The implications of these results are important as many real-agent-based problems mapped onto graphs require this treatment for a proper characterization of their collective behavior.

A parameterization method for the computation of invariant tori and their whiskers in quasi-periodic maps: explorations and mechanisms for the breakdown of hyperbolicity

In two previous papers [J. Differential Equations, 228 (2006), pp. 530 579; Discrete Contin. Dyn. Syst. Ser. B, 6 (2006), pp. 1261 1300] we have developed fast algorithms for the computations of invariant tori in quasi‐periodic systems and developed theorems that assess their accuracy. In this paper, we study the results of implementing these algorithms and study their performance in actual implementations. More importantly, we note that, due to the speed of the algorithms and the theoretical developments about their reliability, we can compute with confidence invariant objects close to the breakdown of their hyperbolicity properties. This allows us to identify a mechanism of loss of hyperbolicity and measure some of its quantitative regularities. We find that some systems lose hyperbolicity because the stable and unstable bundles approach each other but the Lyapunov multipliers remain away from 1. We find empirically that, close to the breakdown, the distances between the invariant bundles and the Lyapunov multipliers which are natural measures of hyperbolicity depend on the parameters, with power laws with universal exponents. We also observe that, even if the rigorous justifications in [J. Differential Equations, 228 (2006), pp. 530-579] are developed only for hyperbolic tori, the algorithms work also for elliptic tori in Hamiltonian systems. We can continue these tori and also compute some bifurcations at resonance which may lead to the existence of hyperbolic tori with nonorientable bundles. We compute manifolds tangent to nonorientable bundles.

Statistical mechanics of multi-edge networks

Statistical properties of binary complex networks are well understood and recently many attempts have been made to extend this knowledge to weighted ones. There are, however, subtle yet important considerations to be made regarding the nature of the weights used in this generalization. Weights can be either continuous or discrete magnitudes, and in the latter case, they can additionally have undistinguishable or distinguishable nature. This fact has not been addressed in the literature insofar and has deep implications on the network statistics. In this work we face this problem introducing multiedge networks as graphs where multiple (distinguishable) connections between nodes are considered. We develop a statistical mechanics framework where it is possible to get information about the most relevant observables given a large spectrum of linear and nonlinear constraints including those depending both on the number of multiedges per link and their binary projection. The latter case is particularly interesting as we show that binary projections can be understood from multiedge processes. The implications of these results are important as many real-agent-based problems mapped onto graphs require this treatment for a proper characterization of their collective behavior.

'Situaciones problema' y desarrollo de la competencia motriz en educación física escolar: cuestiones didácticas = Problem situations and developing motor competence in Physical Education at school: didactic questions

From the areas of motor learning and the teaching of Physical Education we promote coherent methodological orientationswith the present curricular guide that are focused in such a way so that the student is able to act independently. In thissense we may consider the problem situations as a good example for methodological proposals. So as to determine its useand adequateness for Physical Education it is conveniente to analyse the characteristics of the motor tasks that areproposed as well as the features of the teaching intervention in such a way as to ease the adquisition and development ofthe motor competence of the students

Irregular to regular sampling, denoising and deconvolution

We propose a restoration algorithm for band limited images that considers irregular(perturbed) sampling, denoising, and deconvolution. We explore the application of a family ofregularizers that allow to control the spectral behavior of the solution combined with the irregular toregular sampling algorithms proposed by H.G. Feichtinger, K. Gr¨ochenig, M. Rauth and T. Strohmer.Moreover, the constraints given by the image acquisition model are incorporated as a set of localconstraints. And the analysis of such constraints leads to an early stopping rule meant to improvethe speed of the algorithm. Finally we present experiments focused on the restoration of satellite images, where the micro-vibrations are responsible of the type of distortions we are considering here. We will compare results of the proposed method with previous methods and show an extension tozoom.

Gender inequalities in occupational health related to the unequal distribution of working and employment conditions: a systematic review

Gender inequalities exist in work life, but little is known about their presence in relation to factors examined in occupation health settings. The aim of this study was to identify and summarize the working and employment conditions described as determinants of gender inequalities in occupational health in studies related to occupational health published between 1999 and 2010. A systematic literature review was undertaken of studies available in MEDLINE, EMBASE, Sociological Abstracts, LILACS, EconLit and CINAHL between 1999 and 2010. Epidemiologic studies were selected by applying a set of inclusion criteria to the title, abstract, and complete text. The quality of the studies was also assessed. Selected studies were qualitatively analysed, resulting in a compilation of all differences between women and men in the prevalence of exposure to working and employment conditions and work-related health problems as outcomes. Most of the 30 studies included were conducted in Europe (n=19) and had a cross-sectional design (n=24). The most common topic analysed was related to the exposure to work-related psychosocial hazards (n=8). Employed women had more job insecurity, lower control, worse contractual working conditions and poorer self-perceived physical and mental health than men did. Conversely, employed men had a higher degree of physically demanding work, lower support, higher levels of effort-reward imbalance, higher job status, were more exposed to noise and worked longer hours than women did. This systematic review has identified a set of working and employment conditions as determinants of gender inequalities in occupational health from the occupational health literature. These results may be useful to policy makers seeking to reduce gender inequalities in occupational health, and to researchers wishing to analyse these determinants in greater depth.

Do walking strategies to increase physical activity reduce reported sitting in workplaces: a randomized control trial

Background: Interventions designed to increase workplace physical activity may not automatically reduce high volumes of sitting, a behaviour independently linked to chronic diseases such as obesity and type II diabetes. This study compared the impact two different walking strategies had on step counts and reported sitting times. Methods: Participants were white-collar university employees (n = 179; age 41.3 ± 10.1 years; 141 women), who volunteered and undertook a standardised ten-week intervention at three sites. Preintervention step counts (Yamax SW-200) and self-reported sitting times were measured over five consecutive workdays. Using pre-intervention step counts, employees at each site were randomly allocated to a control group (n = 60; maintain normal behaviour), a route-based walking group (n = 60; at least 10 minutes sustained walking each workday) or an incidental walking group (n = 59; walking in workday tasks). Workday step counts and reported sitting times were re-assessed at the beginning, mid- and endpoint of intervention and group mean± SD steps/day and reported sitting times for pre-intervention and intervention measurement points compared using a mixed factorial ANOVA; paired sample-t-tests were used for follow-up, simple effect analyses. Results: A significant interactive effect (F = 3.5; p < 0.003) was found between group and step counts. Daily steps for controls decreased over the intervention period (-391 steps/day) and increased for route (968 steps/day; t = 3.9, p < 0.000) and incidental (699 steps/day; t = 2.5, p < 0.014) groups. There were no significant changes for reported sitting times, but average values did decrease relative to the control (routes group = 7 minutes/day; incidental group = 15 minutes/day). Reductions were most evident for the incidental group in the first week of intervention, where reported sitting decreased by an average of 21 minutes/day (t = 1.9; p < 0.057). Conclusion: Compared to controls, both route and incidental walking increased physical activity in white-collar employees. Our data suggests that workplace walking, particularly through incidental movement, also has the potential to decrease employee sitting times, but there is a need for on-going research using concurrent and objective measures of sitting, standing and walking.

Physical performance of biodegradable films intended for antimicrobial food packaging

Antimicrobial films were prepared by including enterocins to alginate, polyvinyl alcohol (PVOH), and zein films. The physical performance of the films was assessed by measuring color, microstructure (SEM), water vapor permeability (WVP), and tensile properties. All studied biopolymers showed poor WVP and limited tensile properties. PVOH showed the best performance exhibiting the lowest WVP values, higher tensile properties, and flexibility among studied biopolymers. SEM of antimicrobial films showed increased presence of voids and pores as a consequence of enterocin addition. However, changes in microstructure did not disturb WVP of films. Moreover, enterocin-containing films showed slight improvement compared to control films. Addition of enterocins to PVOH films had a plasticizing effect, by reducing its tensile strength and increasing the strain at break. The presence of enterocins had an important effect on tensile properties of zein films by significantly reducing its brittleness. Addition of enterocins, thus, proved not to disturb the physical performance of studied biopolymers. Development of new antimicrobial biodegradable packaging materials may contribute to improving food safety while reducing environmental impact derived from packaging waste.

J2 effect and elliptic inclined periodic orbits in the collision three-body problem

The existence of a new class of inclined periodic orbits of the collision restricted three-body problem is shown. The symmetric periodic solutions found are perturbations of elliptic kepler orbits and they exist only for special values of the inclination and are related to the motion of a satellite around an oblate planet

Beaming into the rat world: enabling real-time intereaction between rat and human each at their own scale

Immersive virtual reality (IVR) typically generates the illusion in participants that they are in the displayed virtual scene where they can experience and interact in events as if they were really happening. Teleoperator (TO) systems place people at a remote physical destination embodied as a robotic device, and where typically participants have the sensation of being at the destination, with the ability to interact with entities there. In this paper, we show how to combine IVR and TO to allow a new class of application. The participant in the IVR is represented in the destination by a physical robot (TO) and simultaneously the remote place and entities within it are represented to the participant in the IVR. Hence, the IVR participant has a normal virtual reality experience, but where his or her actions and behaviour control the remote robot and can therefore have physical consequences. Here, we show how such a system can be deployed to allow a human and a rat to operate together, but the human interacting with the rat on a human scale, and the rat interacting with the human on the rat scale. The human is represented in a rat arena by a small robot that is slaved to the human"s movements, whereas the tracked rat is represented to the human in the virtual reality by a humanoid avatar. We describe the system and also a study that was designed to test whether humans can successfully play a game with the rat. The results show that the system functioned well and that the humans were able to interact with the rat to fulfil the tasks of the game. This system opens up the possibility of new applications in the life sciences involving participant observation of and interaction with animals but at human scale.