Predictive ability of severe rainfall events over Catalonia for the year 2008

This paper analyses the predictive ability of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) and the so-called "poor-man" rainfall probabilistic forecasts (RPF). With this aim, the full set of warnings issued by the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC) for potentially-dangerous events due to severe precipitation has been analysed for the year 2008. For each of the 37 warnings, the QPFs obtained from the limited-area model MM5 have been verified against hourly precipitation data provided by the rain gauge network covering Catalonia (NE of Spain), managed by SMC. For a group of five selected case studies, a QPF comparison has been undertaken between the MM5 and COSMO-I7 limited-area models. Although MM5's predictive ability has been examined for these five cases by making use of satellite data, this paper only shows in detail the heavy precipitation event on the 9¿10 May 2008. Finally, the "poor-man" rainfall probabilistic forecasts (RPF) issued by SMC at regional scale have also been tested against hourly precipitation observations. Verification results show that for long events (>24 h) MM5 tends to overestimate total precipitation, whereas for short events (¿24 h) the model tends instead to underestimate precipitation. The analysis of the five case studies concludes that most of MM5's QPF errors are mainly triggered by very poor representation of some of its cloud microphysical species, particularly the cloud liquid water and, to a lesser degree, the water vapor. The models' performance comparison demonstrates that MM5 and COSMO-I7 are on the same level of QPF skill, at least for the intense-rainfall events dealt with in the five case studies, whilst the warnings based on RPF issued by SMC have proven fairly correct when tested against hourly observed precipitation for 6-h intervals and at a small region scale. Throughout this study, we have only dealt with (SMC-issued) warning episodes in order to analyse deterministic (MM5 and COSMO-I7) and probabilistic (SMC) rainfall forecasts; therefore we have not taken into account those episodes that might (or might not) have been missed by the official SMC warnings. Therefore, whenever we talk about "misses", it is always in relation to the deterministic LAMs' QPFs.

Trends in indices of daily precipitation extremes in Catalonia (NE Spain), 1951-2003

The aim of this paper is to quantitatively characterize the climatology of daily precipitation indices in Catalonia (northeastern Iberian Peninsula) from 1951 to 2003. This work has been performed analyzing a subset of the ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices) precipitation indices calculated from a new interpolated dataset of daily precipitation, namely SPAIN02, regular at 0.2° horizontal resolution (around 20 km) and from two high-quality stations: the Ebro and Fabra observatories. Using a jack-knife technique, we have found that the sampling error of the SPAIN02 regional averaged is relatively low. The trend analysis has been implemented using a Circular Block Bootstrap procedure applicable to non-normal distributions and autocorrelated series. A running trend analysis has been applied to analyze the trend persistence. No general trends at a regional scale are observed, considering the annual or the seasonal regional averaged series of all the indices for all the time windows considered. Only the consecutive dry days index (CDD) at annual scale shows a locally coherent spatial trend pattern; around 30% of the Catalonia area has experienced an increase of around 2¿3 days decade¿1. The Ebro and Fabra observatories show a similar CDD trend, mainly due to the summer contribution. Besides this, a significant decrease in total precipitation (around ¿10 mm decade¿1) and in the index "highest precipitation amount in five-day period" (RX5DAY, around ¿5 mm decade¿1), have been found in summer for the Ebro observatory.

Mathematics in Catalonia: 1996-2002

The aim of this article is to present the main conclusions of the Report on research in Catalonia for the area of mathematics**. The report was prepared by Joaquim Bruna, Marta Sanz, Joan de Solà-Morales and the author of this text, and published by the Institute for Catalan Studies in 1998. In the report, scientific activity in the area of mathematics was measured essentially by examining two parameters: papers published in specialised journals and doctoral theses read. It should be recognised that a considerable amount of activity in the field of mathematics consists of applying existing knowledge to the resolution of practical technological problems that arise in particular companies. This kind of scientific activity was not measured in any way in the report due to the difficulty of obtaining objective data. This article is divided into the following sections: human resources, scientific production, funding, research publications, research centres, and conclusions.

Monitoring mortality as an indicator of influenza in Catalonia, Spain.

This study aimed to investigate the behaviour of two indicators of influenza activity in the area of Barcelona and to evaluate the usefulness of modelling them to improve the detection of influenza epidemics. DESIGN: Descriptive time series study using the number of deaths due to all causes registered by funeral services and reported cases of influenza-like illness. The study concentrated on five influenza seasons, from week 45 of 1988 to week 44 of 1993. The weekly number of deaths and cases of influenza-like illness registered were processed using identification of a time series ARIMA model. SETTING: Six large towns in the Barcelona province which have more than 60,000 inhabitants and funeral services in all of them. MAIN RESULTS: For mortality, the proposed model was an autoregressive one of order 2 (ARIMA (2,0,0)) and for morbidity it was one of order 3 (ARIMA (3,0,0)). Finally, the two time series were analysed together to facilitate the detection of possible implications between them. The joint study of the two series shows that the mortality series can be modelled separately from the reported morbidity series, but the morbidity series is influenced as much by the number of previous cases of influenza reported as by the previous mortality registered. CONCLUSIONS: The model based on general mortality is useful for detecting epidemic activity of influenza. However, because there is not an absolute gold standard that allows definition of the beginning of the epidemic, the final decision of when it is considered an epidemic and control measures recommended should be taken after evaluating all the indicators included in the influenza surveillance programme.

Rockfall monitoring by Terrestrial Laser Scanning ¿ case study of the basaltic rock face at Castellfollit de la Roca (Catalonia, Spain)

This case study deals with a rock face monitoring in urban areas using a Terrestrial Laser Scanner. The pilot study area is an almost vertical, fifty meter high cliff, on top of which the village of Castellfollit de la Roca is located. Rockfall activity is currently causing a retreat of the rock face, which may endanger the houses located at its edge. TLS datasets consist of high density 3-D point clouds acquired from five stations, nine times in a time span of 22 months (from March 2006 to January 2008). The change detection, i.e. rockfalls, was performed through a sequential comparison of datasets. Two types of mass movement were detected in the monitoring period: (a) detachment of single basaltic columns, with magnitudes below 1.5 m3 and (b) detachment of groups of columns, with magnitudes of 1.5 to 150 m3. Furthermore, the historical record revealed (c) the occurrence of slab failures with magnitudes higher than 150 m3. Displacements of a likely slab failure were measured, suggesting an apparent stationary stage. Even failures are clearly episodic, our results, together with the study of the historical record, enabled us to estimate a mean detachment of material from 46 to 91.5 m3 year¿1. The application of TLS considerably improved our understanding of rockfall phenomena in the study area.

Rockfall induced seismic signals: case study in Montserrat, Catalonia

After a rockfall event, a usual post event survey includes qualitative volume estimation, trajectory mapping and determination of departing zones. However, quantitative measurements are not usually made. Additional relevant quantitative information could be useful in determining the spatial occurrence of rockfall events and help us in quantifying their size. Seismic measurements could be suitable for detection purposes since they are non invasive methods and are relatively inexpensive. Moreover, seismic techniques could provide important information on rockfall size and location of impacts. On 14 February 2007 the Avalanche Group of the University of Barcelona obtained the seismic data generated by an artificially triggered rockfall event at the Montserrat massif (near Barcelona, Spain) carried out in order to purge a slope. Two 3 component seismic stations were deployed in the area about 200 m from the explosion point that triggered the rockfall. Seismic signals and video images were simultaneously obtained. The initial volume of the rockfall was estimated to be 75 m3 by laser scanner data analysis. After the explosion, dozens of boulders ranging from 10¿4 to 5 m3 in volume impacted on the ground at different locations. The blocks fell down onto a terrace, 120 m below the release zone. The impact generated a small continuous mass movement composed of a mixture of rocks, sand and dust that ran down the slope and impacted on the road 60 m below. Time, time-frequency evolution and particle motion analysis of the seismic records and seismic energy estimation were performed. The results are as follows: 1 ¿ A rockfall event generates seismic signals with specific characteristics in the time domain; 2 ¿ the seismic signals generated by the mass movement show a time-frequency evolution different from that of other seismogenic sources (e.g. earthquakes, explosions or a single rock impact). This feature could be used for detection purposes; 3 ¿ particle motion plot analysis shows that the procedure to locate the rock impact using two stations is feasible; 4 ¿ The feasibility and validity of seismic methods for the detection of rockfall events, their localization and size determination are comfirmed.

Syntaxonomic conspectus of the vegetation of Catalonia and Andorra. I: Hygrophilous herbaceous communities.

The first part of a general survey of the vegetation of Catalonia andAndorra, this paper reports all the phytocoenological associations and subassociations recorded in this area. For each community, we provide the correct name and usual synonyms, its typification (where appropriate), all the references including relevés, and the most outstanding features of its structure, species composition, ecology, distribution and diversity. Moreover, associations and subassociations are ordered appropriately in a syntaxonomic scheme. Syntaxonomic ranks are considered in a fairly broad, conservative sense. This classification established 101 associations, which correspond to the classes Lemnetea, Zosteretea, Potametea, Littorelletea, Montio-Cardaminetea, Phragmiti-Magnocaricetea, Scheuchzerio-Caricetea, Isoeto-Nanojuncetea and Molinio-Arrhenatheretea.

Reinventar la metròpoli: Barcelona i el model de la Greater London Authority

La dècada de 1980 va significar un punt i a part per als governs metropolitans. Després de viure una època daurada durant els 60 i 70, la reestructuració del sistema politicoeconòmic va comportar que les estructures de govern metropolità fossin qüestionades i fins i tot suprimides. Quan tot semblava indicar que restarien només com a record, la lògica de competència entre grans ciutats i la necessitat de reinventar-se en base a un desenvolupament sostenible va suposar un inesperat renaixement de la política metropolitana. Si fins aleshores la seva necessitat s'havia justificat bàsicament des d'un punt de vista funcional, seguint pautes tecnòcrates i burocratitzades, la nova metropolítica se centra en la competitivitat i en la sostenibilitat, alhora que posa èmfasi en assajar mètodes de governança. Londres, ciutat que presenta certs paral·lelismes històrics amb Barcelona, ha estat una ciutat pionera i de la seva experiència es pot aprendre per la capital catalana

An epidemiological study of dental agenesis in a primary health area in Spain: estimated prevalence and associated factors

Objectives: To evaluate the prevalence of dental agenesis and its possible association with other developmental dental anomalies and systemic entities. Setting and Sample Population: Descriptive transversal study, for which 1518 clinical records, of patients visited by the Odontological Service of the Primary Health Centre of Cassà de la Selva (Girona-Spain) between December 2002 and February 2006 were reviewed. The data were recorded in relation to the oral and dental anomalies and the associated systemic entities, between the ones referred as concomitant in literature. Results: Values of 9.48% (7.25% excluding the third molars) for dental agenesis and 0.39% for oligodontia were obtained. The presence of dental agenesis concomitant with some other forms of oral and dental anomalies was observed. Attention must be drawn to the fact that a greater number of concomitant systemic entities were observed in those patients that presented a severe phenotypical pattern of dental agenesis. Conclusions: The results of the present study do not differ from the ones reported in studies of similar characteristics among Occidental and Spanish populations. The relationship observed between certain systemic entities and developmental dental anomalies suggest a possible common genetic etiology

From Master Plan to punctual interventions. Slums in Barcelona

The sloppy process of urbanization that took place in the outskirts of Barcelona from mid XIXth to mid XXth century resulted on large informal slums with evident urban deficiencies. The Metropolitan Masterplan of 1976 and its subsequent amendments could only partially improve the conditions of these areas of the city. Since 2005 some initiatives, in which local community or academic research played an important role, were undertaken following a tactical approach. The paper summarizes six proposed strategies that are a reaction to the traditional planning and zoning approach for the area. Some of them are currently been discussed or have already been included in the planning framework of the city.

Laboratory diagnosis of brucellosis in a rural endemic area in northeastern Spain

Sera obtained from 62 patients from four mountain counties in Catalonia (Northeastern Spain), in whom brucellosis had been diagnosed on the basis of clinical evidence and/or personal history, were analyzed using the rose Bengal test, standard serum agglutination test (SAT), Coombs" test, ELISA, and complement fixation. The diagnosis was further confirmed through blood cultures. Clinical evidence, epidemiology, and the results from serologic tests were used to assign patients to one of two groups: group 1 (n = 38) patients had primary infections, whereas group 2 (n = 24) patients had been previously exposed to the microorganism, i.e. re-infection of group 2 individuals occurred after long periods of time during which no active infection by Brucella had been detected. Receivingoperating charts (ROC) were used to determine the diagnostic value of the different tests and to establish discriminant values. Blood culture was a valuable diagnostic tool in group 1 (0.92 sensitivity) but was inappropriate in group 2 (0.08). The combination of positive rose Bengal test and agglutination ≥1/160 was valid for diagnosis in group 1. In group 2, agglutination < 1/160 (including negative agglutination) did not rule out brucellosis. The combination of positive rose Bengal test and Coombs" test ≥1/320 was the best diagnostic criterion (0.8 specificity; 1 sensitivity). ELISA (for IgG, IgM, or both) did not improve diagnostic accuracy

Cost-effectiveness of early detection of breast cancer in Catalonia (Spain)

Background: Breast cancer (BC) causes more deaths than any other cancer among women in Catalonia. Early detection has contributed to the observed decline in BC mortality. However, there is debate on the optimal screening strategy. We performed an economic evaluation of 20 screening strategies taking into account the cost over time of screening and subsequent medical costs, including diagnostic confirmation, initial treatment, follow-up and advanced care. Methods: We used a probabilistic model to estimate the effect and costs over time of each scenario. The effect was measured as years of life (YL), quality-adjusted life years (QALY), and lives extended (LE). Costs of screening and treatment were obtained from the Early Detection Program and hospital databases of the IMAS-Hospital del Mar in Barcelona. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was used to compare the relative costs and outcomes of different scenarios. Results: Strategies that start at ages 40 or 45 and end at 69 predominate when the effect is measured as YL or QALYs. Biennial strategies 50-69, 45-69 or annual 45-69, 40-69 and 40-74 were selected as cost-effective for both effect measures (YL or QALYs). The ICER increases considerably when moving from biennial to annual scenarios. Moving from no screening to biennial 50-69 years represented an ICER of 4,469€ per QALY. Conclusions: A reduced number of screening strategies have been selected for consideration by researchers, decision makers and policy planners. Mathematical models are useful to assess the impact and costs of BC screening in a specific geographical area.

A detailed stream sediment Geochemical survey in the Canoves St. Pere de Vilamajor area (Montseny massif. NE Spain)

Se ha realizado una prospección geoquímica táctica de sedimentos aluviales en el Brea de Cánoves-St. Pere de Vilamajor (Macizo del Montseny, Barcelona), como consecuencia de una exploración geoquimica estratégica de sedimentos aluviales previa, en la que se localizó un Brea anómala en Pb, Zn, Cu, As, Cd, Ni, y Co. El Brea estudiada tiene 35 km2 y esta constituida por materiales sedimentarios y volcánicos del Paleozoico, metamorfizados en mayor o menor grado e intruidos por el granito de Vallfornés, y materiales detríticos terciarios...