Forecasting the Earth"s radiation belts and modeling solar energetic particle events: Recent results from SPACECAST

High-energy charged particles in the van Allen radiation belts and in solar energetic particle events can damage satellites on orbit leading to malfunctions and loss of satellite service. Here we describe some recent results from the SPACECAST project on modelling and forecasting the radiation belts, and modelling solar energetic particle events. We describe the SPACECAST forecasting system that uses physical models that include wave-particle interactions to forecast the electron radiation belts up to 3 h ahead. We show that the forecasts were able to reproduce the >2 MeV electron flux at GOES 13 during the moderate storm of 7-8 October 2012, and the period following a fast solar wind stream on 25-26 October 2012 to within a factor of 5 or so. At lower energies of 10- a few 100 keV we show that the electron flux at geostationary orbit depends sensitively on the high-energy tail of the source distribution near 10 RE on the nightside of the Earth, and that the source is best represented by a kappa distribution. We present a new model of whistler mode chorus determined from multiple satellite measurements which shows that the effects of wave-particle interactions beyond geostationary orbit are likely to be very significant. We also present radial diffusion coefficients calculated from satellite data at geostationary orbit which vary with Kp by over four orders of magnitude. We describe a new automated method to determine the position at the shock that is magnetically connected to the Earth for modelling solar energetic particle events and which takes into account entropy, and predict the form of the mean free path in the foreshock, and particle injection efficiency at the shock from analytical theory which can be tested in simulations.

Forecasting the Earth"s radiation belts and modeling solar energetic particle events: Recent results from SPACECAST

High-energy charged particles in the van Allen radiation belts and in solar energetic particle events can damage satellites on orbit leading to malfunctions and loss of satellite service. Here we describe some recent results from the SPACECAST project on modelling and forecasting the radiation belts, and modelling solar energetic particle events. We describe the SPACECAST forecasting system that uses physical models that include wave-particle interactions to forecast the electron radiation belts up to 3 h ahead. We show that the forecasts were able to reproduce the >2 MeV electron flux at GOES 13 during the moderate storm of 7-8 October 2012, and the period following a fast solar wind stream on 25-26 October 2012 to within a factor of 5 or so. At lower energies of 10- a few 100 keV we show that the electron flux at geostationary orbit depends sensitively on the high-energy tail of the source distribution near 10 RE on the nightside of the Earth, and that the source is best represented by a kappa distribution. We present a new model of whistler mode chorus determined from multiple satellite measurements which shows that the effects of wave-particle interactions beyond geostationary orbit are likely to be very significant. We also present radial diffusion coefficients calculated from satellite data at geostationary orbit which vary with Kp by over four orders of magnitude. We describe a new automated method to determine the position at the shock that is magnetically connected to the Earth for modelling solar energetic particle events and which takes into account entropy, and predict the form of the mean free path in the foreshock, and particle injection efficiency at the shock from analytical theory which can be tested in simulations.

JPEG standard uniform quantization error modeling with applications to sequential and progressive operation modes

In this paper we propose a method for computing JPEG quantization matrices for a given mean square error or PSNR. Then, we employ our method to compute JPEG standard progressive operation mode definition scripts using a quantization approach. Therefore, it is no longer necessary to use a trial and error procedure to obtain a desired PSNR and/or definition script, reducing cost. Firstly, we establish a relationship between a Laplacian source and its uniform quantization error. We apply this model to the coefficients obtained in the discrete cosine transform stage of the JPEG standard. Then, an image may be compressed using the JPEG standard under a global MSE (or PSNR) constraint and a set of local constraints determined by the JPEG standard and visual criteria. Secondly, we study the JPEG standard progressive operation mode from a quantization based approach. A relationship between the measured image quality at a given stage of the coding process and a quantization matrix is found. Thus, the definition script construction problem can be reduced to a quantization problem. Simulations show that our method generates better quantization matrices than the classical method based on scaling the JPEG default quantization matrix. The estimation of PSNR has usually an error smaller than 1 dB. This figure decreases for high PSNR values. Definition scripts may be generated avoiding an excessive number of stages and removing small stages that do not contribute during the decoding process with a noticeable image quality improvement.

Univariate versus multivariate modeling of panel data

Panel data can be arranged into a matrix in two ways, called 'long' and 'wide' formats (LFand WF). The two formats suggest two alternative model approaches for analyzing paneldata: (i) univariate regression with varying intercept; and (ii) multivariate regression withlatent variables (a particular case of structural equation model, SEM). The present papercompares the two approaches showing in which circumstances they yield equivalent?insome cases, even numerically equal?results. We show that the univariate approach givesresults equivalent to the multivariate approach when restrictions of time invariance (inthe paper, the TI assumption) are imposed on the parameters of the multivariate model.It is shown that the restrictions implicit in the univariate approach can be assessed bychi-square difference testing of two nested multivariate models. In addition, commontests encountered in the econometric analysis of panel data, such as the Hausman test, areshown to have an equivalent representation as chi-square difference tests. Commonalitiesand differences between the univariate and multivariate approaches are illustrated usingan empirical panel data set of firms' profitability as well as a simulated panel data.

A panel data analysis of FDI and informal labor markets

The objective of this paper is to examine whether informal labor markets affect the flows of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and also whether this effect is similar in developed and developing countries. With this aim, different public data sources, such as the World Bank (WB), and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) are used, and panel econometric models are estimated for a sample of 65 countries over a 14 year period (1996-2009). In addition, this paper uses a dynamic model as an extension of the analysis to establish whether such an effect exists and what its indicators and significance may be.

Causality and Contagion in EMU Sovereign Debt Markets

This paper contributes to the literature by applying the Granger causality approach and endogenous breakpoint test to offer an operational definition of contagion to examine European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) countries public debt behaviour. A database of yields on 10-year government bonds issued by 11 EMU countries covering fourteen years of monetary union is used. The main results suggest that the 41 new causality patterns, which appeared for the first time in the crisis period, and the intensification of causality recorded in 70% of the cases, provide clear evidence of contagion in the aftermath of the current euro debt crisis.

Study and modeling of the desintegration kinetics of coated paper

The disintegration of recovered paper is the first operation in the preparation of recycled pulp. It is known that the defibering process follows a first order kinetics from which it is possible to obtain the disintegration kinetic constant (KD) by means of different ways. The disintegration constant can be obtained from the Somerville index results (%lsv and from the dissipated energy per volume unit (Ss). The %slv is related to the quantity of non-defibrated paper, as a measure of the non-disintegrated fiber residual (percentage of flakes), which is expressed in disintegration time units. In this work, disintegration kinetics from recycled coated paper has been evaluated, working at 20 revise rotor speed and for different fiber consistency (6, 8, 10, 12 and 14%). The results showed that the values of experimental disintegration kinetic constant, Ko, through the analysis of Somerville index, as function of time. Increased, the disintegration time was drastically reduced. The calculation of the disintegration kinetic constant (modelled Ko), extracted from the Rayleigh’s dissipation function, showed a good correlation with the experimental values using the evolution of the Somerville index or with the dissipated energy

Reliability of the density functional approximation to describe the charge transfer and electrostatic complexes involved in the modeling of organic conducting polymers

Both the intermolecular interaction energies and the geometries for M ̄ thiophene, M ̄ pyrrole, M n+ ̄ thiophene, and M n+ ̄ pyrrole ͑with M = Li, Na, K, Ca, and Mg; and M n+ = Li+ , Na+ , K+ , Ca2+, and Mg2+͒ have been estimated using four commonly used density functional theory ͑DFT͒ methods: B3LYP, B3PW91, PBE, and MPW1PW91. Results have been compared to those provided by HF, MP2, and MP4 conventional ab initio methods. The PBE and MPW1PW91 are the only DFT methods able to provide a reasonable description of the M ̄ complexes. Regarding M n+ ̄ ␲ complexes, the four DFT methods have been proven to be adequate in the prediction of these electrostatically stabilized systems, even though they tend to overestimate the interaction energies.

Ecology of Armillaria species on silver fir (Abies alba) in the Spanish Pyrenees

We describe the distribution and the ecology of three Armillaria species observed in silver fir (Abies alba) forests of the Pyrenees. We surveyed the presence and abundance of Armillaria above and belowground in 29 stands. Isolates were identified by the PCR-RFLP pattern of the IGS-1 region of their ribosomal DNA. We measured several ecological and management parameters of each stand in order to describe Armillaria infected sites. Armillaria cepistipes was the most abundant of three species observed. Armillaria gallica was dominant in soils with a higher pH and at lower elevations. Armillaria ostoyae seemed to be more frequent in stands where A. alba recently increased its dominance relative to other forest tree species. Thinning activities correlated with an increased abundance of Armillaria belowground. In 83% of the stands the same Armillaria species was observed above and belowground. It seems that in a conifer forest, A. cepistipes can be more frequent than A. ostoyae, a virulent conifer pathogen. Since logging is related to a higher abundance of Armillaria in the soil, the particular Armillaria species present in a given stand could be considered an additional site factor when making management decisions.

A comparative study of silver amalgam and compomer as retrograde filling materials in periapical surgery

Objective: A comparative study is made of the histological effects of silver amalgam versus compomer (Dyract®) 90 days after placement as retrograde filling materials in experimental animals. Method: Six Beagle dogs were used, with total pulpectomy and orthograde material filling followed by periapical surgery of the 6 upper and 6 lower incisors (for a total of 72 teeth). Thirty-six teeth corresponded to the right side and were filled with the control material (silver amalgam), while the 36 teeth on the left side were filled with the compomer study material (Dyract®). After three months the animals were sacrificed and the histological study was carried out, with evaluation of bone formation, inflammation, and the tissue in contact with the filler material. The results obtained were subjected to a descriptive and comparative statistical analysis (chi-square test). Results: The samples retrogradely filled with compomer showed significantly greater percentage inflammation (76.19% versus 26.66% in the control group). On the other hand, a large proportion of samples with root cement growth were found in the compomer group. Filler material expulsion was also significantly more common when compomer was used. Conclusions: the comparative study of the histological findings showed greater inflammation but also greater root cement growth in the compomer group versus the controls

Assignment markets with the same core

[spa] En el contexto de los juegos de asignación bilaterales, estudiamos el conjunto de matrices asociadas a mercados de asignación con el mismo nucleo. Se proporcionan condiciones sobre las entradas de la matriz que aseguran que los juegos de asignación asociados tienen el mismo núcleo. Se prueba que este conjunto de matrices que dan lugar al mismo núcleo forman un semirretículo con un número finito de elementos minimales y un único máximo. Se da una caracterización de estos elementos minimales. También se proporciona una condición suficiente para obtener un retículo.

Multi-sided Böhm-Bawerk assignment markets: the core

[cat] En aquest treball introduïm la classe de "multi-sided Böhm-Bawerk assignment games", que generalitza la coneguda classe de jocs d’assignació de Böhm-Bawerk bilaterals a situacions amb un nombre arbitrari de sectors. Trobem els extrems del core de qualsevol multi-sided Böhm-Bawerk assignment game a partir d’un joc convex definit en el conjunt de sectors enlloc del conjunt de venedors i compradors. Addicionalment estudiem quan el core d’aquests jocs d’assignació és estable en el sentit de von Neumann-Morgenstern.

Consistency and the core of multi-sided assignment markets

[cat] En aquest treball es demostra que en el domini dels jocs d’assignació equilibrats multisectorials (Quint, 1991), el core és l’única solució no buida que satisfà derived consistency i projection consistency. També es caracteritza el core en tota la classe dels jocs d’assignació multisectorials amb els axiomes de singleness best, individual antimonotonicity i derived consistency. Com a casos particulars, s’obtenen dues noves axiomàtiques del core per als jocs d’assignació bilaterals (Shapley and Shubik, 1972).

Assignment markets with the same core

[spa] En el contexto de los juegos de asignación bilaterales, estudiamos el conjunto de matrices asociadas a mercados de asignación con el mismo nucleo. Se proporcionan condiciones sobre las entradas de la matriz que aseguran que los juegos de asignación asociados tienen el mismo núcleo. Se prueba que este conjunto de matrices que dan lugar al mismo núcleo forman un semirretículo con un número finito de elementos minimales y un único máximo. Se da una caracterización de estos elementos minimales. También se proporciona una condición suficiente para obtener un retículo.