How well do individuals predict the selling prices of their homes?

Self-reported home values are widely used as a measure of housing wealth by researchers employing a variety of data sets and studying a number of different individual and household level decisions. The accuracy of this measure is an open empirical question, and requires some type of market assessment of the values reported. In this research, we study the predictive power of self-reported housing wealth when estimating sales prices utilizing the Health and Retirement Study. We find that homeowners, on average, overestimate the value of their properties by between 5% and 10%. More importantly, we are the first to document a strong correlation between accuracy and the economic conditions at the time of the purchase of the property (measured by the prevalent interest rate, the growth of household income, and the growth of median housing prices). While most individuals overestimate the value of their properties, those who bought during more difficult economic times tend to be more accurate, and in some cases even underestimate the value of their house. These results establish a surprisingly strong, likely permanent, and in many cases long-lived, effect of the initial conditions surrounding the purchases of properties, on how individuals value them. This cyclicality of the overestimation of house prices can provide some explanations for the difficulties currently faced by many homeowners, who were expecting large appreciations in home value to rescue them in case of increases in interest rates which could jeopardize their ability to live up to their financial commitments.

An inequality for uniform deviations of sample averages from their means

We derive a new inequality for uniform deviations of averages from their means. The inequality is a common generalization of previous results of Vapnik and Chervonenkis (1974) and Pollard (1986). Usingthe new inequality we obtain tight bounds for empirical loss minimization learning.

Socio-economic inequalities in health in Catalonia

In this paper we measure the degree of income related inequality in mental health as measured by the GHQ instrument and general health as measured by the EQOL-5D instrument for the Catalan population. We find that income is the main contributor to inequality, although the share of inequality in mental health that can be explained by income is much greater than the corresponding share of inequality in general health. We also find that the variation in demographic structure reduces income related inequality in mental health but increases income related inequality in general health. The regional variations in both instruments for health are striking, with the Barcelona districts faring relatively bad with respect to the rest of geographical areas and Lleida being the health region where, all else held equal, the population reports the greatest level of health. A big share of inequality in the two health measures, but specially mental health, is due to the favourable position in both health and income of those who enjoy an indefinite contract with respect to the rest of individuals. We also find that risky working conditions affect both health measures and are able to explain an important share of socio-economic inequality.

Wage inequality in a frictional labor market

Wage inequality in the United States has grown substantially in thepast two decades. Standard supply-demand analysis in the empiricsof inequality (e.g.Katz and Murphy (1992)) indicates that we mayattribute some of this trend to an outward shift in the demand forhigh skilled labor. In this paper we examine a simple static channelin which the wage premium for skill may grow -increased firm entry.We consider a model of wage dispersion where there are two types ofworkers and homogeneous firms must set wages and preferences forwhat type of worker they would like to hire. We find that both thewage differential and the demand for high skill workers can increasewith the proportion of high skill workers -these high skill workerstherefore 'create' their own demand without exogenous factors. Inaddition, within group wage inequality can increase in step with thebetween group wage inequality. Simulations of the model are providedin order to compare the findings with empirical results.

Social spending and demographics: The role of public policies in the intergenerational redistribution of income. Empirical evidence from Spain and Catalonia

The demographic shift underway in Southern Europe requires a revision of some of thefundamental principles of the traditional welfare state. We analyze the evolution of several aspects of welfare and social expenditure over the last two decades. We find that in the context of the present demographic changes and real estate boom current social and pension policy leads to a new distribution of benefits and burdens which is highly intergenerationally unequal. We argue for a revised definition of public policy based on Musgrave's proposition as a possible rule for an intergenerationally fair distribution.

The labor market effects of payroll taxes in a middle-income country: Evidence from Colombia

We use a panel of manufacturing plants from Colombia to analyze how the risein payroll tax rates over the 1980 s and 1990 s affected the labor market.Our estimates indicate that formal wages fall by between 1.4% and 2.3% as aresult of a 10% rise in payroll taxes. This 'less-than-full-shifting' islikely to be the result of weak linkages between benefits and taxes and thepresence of downward wage rigidities induced by a binding minimum wage inColombia. Because the costs of taxation are only partly shifted fromemployers to employees, employment should also fall. Our results indicatethat a 10% increase in payroll taxes lowered formal employment by between4% and 5%. In addition, we find less shifting and larger disemploymenteffects for production than non-production workers. These results suggestthat policies aimed at boosting the relative demand of low-skill workers byreducing social security taxes on those with low earnings may be effectivein a country like Colombia, especially if tax cuts are targeted to indirectbenefits.

Increasing returns, imperfect competition and factor prices

We show how, in general equilibrium models featuring increasing returns, imperfectcompetition and endogenous markups, changes in the scale of economic activity affectincome distribution across factors. Whenever final goods are gross-substitutes (gross-complements), a scale expansion raises (lowers) the relative reward of the scarce factoror the factor used intensively in the sector characterized by a higher degree of product differentiation and higher fixed costs. Under very reasonable hypothesis, our theory suggests that scale is skill-biased. This result provides a microfoundation for the secular increase in the relative demand for skilled labor. Moreover, it constitutes an important link among major explanations for the rise in wage inequality: skill-biased technical change, capital-skill complementarities and international trade. We provide new evidence on the mechanism underlying the skill bias of scale.

Intergenerational mobility and the informative content of surnames

We propose an alternative method for measuring intergenerational mobility. Measurements obtained fromtraditional methods (based on panel data) are scarce, difficult to compare across countries and almost impossible to get across time. In particular, this means that we do not know how intergenerational mobility is correlated with growth, income or the degree of inequality.Our proposal is to measure the informative content of surnames in one census. The more information thesurname has on the income of an individual, the more important is her background in determining her outcomes; and thus, the less mobility there is.The reason is that surnames provide information about family relationships because the distribution ofsurnames is necessarily very skewed. A large percentage of the population is bound to have a very unfrequent surname. For them the partition generated by surnames is very informative on family linkages.First, we develop a model whose endogenous variable is the joint distribution of surnames and income.There, we explore the relationship between mobility and the informative content of surnames. We allow for assortative mating to be a determinant of both.Second, we use our methodology to show that in large Spanish region the informative content of surnamesis large and consistent with the model. We also show that it has increased over time, indicating a substantial drop in the degree of mobility. Finally, using the peculiarities of the Spanish surname convention we show that the degree of assortative mating has also increased over time, in such a manner that might explain the decrease in mobility observed.Our method allows us to provide measures of mobility comparable across time. It should also allow us tostudy other issues related to inheritance.

Does risk aversion or attraction depend on income? An experiment

Does risk attitude (aversion or attraction) vary with the level of the income at risk? About half of our subjects chose to insure all levels, whereas another half chose instead not to insure low levels, but to insure high levels.

Income taxation in a frictional labor market

A new model of wage dispersion is used to examine welfare aspects of income taxation. The model retains the dynamics of wage posting modelswhile exogenizing search e¤ort, therefore allowing more insight into policy issues. The results highlight effects that standard analyses do not take into account. The optimal income tax should depend on an incidenceeffect between workers and firms. This incidence effect arises from firmstrying to lower wages as much as possible. An employment tax proves, incertain cases, to be the best method to encourage labor force participation.

Globalization and culture shaping the gender gap: A comparative analysis of urban Latin America and East Asia (1970 - 2000)

In this paper we present: 1. The available data on comparative gender inequality at themacroeconomic level and 2. Gender inequality measures at the microeconomic and case studylevel. We see that market openness has a significant effect on the narrowing of the human capitalgender gap. Globalization and market openness stand as factors that improve both the humancapital endowments of women and their economic position. But we also see that the effects ofculture and religious beliefs are very different. While Catholicism has a statistically significantinfluence on the improvement of the human capital gender gap, Muslim and Buddhist religiousbeliefs have the opposite effect and increase human capital gender differences.In the second global era, some Catholic Latin American countries benefited from market opennessin terms of the human capital and income gender gap, whereas we find the opposite impact inBuddhist and Muslim countries like China and South Korea where women s economic positionhas worsened in terms of human capital and wage inequality.

Regional differences in socio-economic health inequalities in Spain

This paper reports an analysis of income related health inequalities at the AutonomousCommunity level in Spain using the self assessed health measure in the 2001 edition of theEncuesta Nacional de Salud. We use recently developed methods in order to cardinalise andmodel self assessed health within a regression framework, decompose the sources ofinequality and explain the observed differences across regions. We find that the regions with the highest levels of mean health tend to enjoy the lowest degrees of income related health inequality and vice-versa. The main feature characterizing regions where income related health inequality is low is the absence of a positive gradient between income and health. In turn, the regions where income related health inequality is greater are characterized by a strong and significant positive gradient between health and income. These results suggest that policies aimed at eliminating the gradient between health and income can potentially lead to greate r reductions in socio-economic health inequalities than policies aimed at redistributing income.

Income and body mass index in Europe

The problem of obesity is alarming public health authorities around the world. Therefore, it is important to study its determinants. In this paper we explore the empirical relationship between household income and body mass index (BMI) in nine European Union countries. Our findings suggest that the association is negative for women, but we find no statistically significant relationship for men. However, we show that the different relationship for men and women appears to be driven by the negative relationship for women between BMI and individual income from work. We tentatively conclude that the negative relationship between household income and BMI for women may simply be capturing the wage penalty that obese women suffer in the labor market.

Improving college access and success for low-income students: Evidence from a large need-based grant program

Using comprehensive administrative data on France's single largest financialaid program, this paper provides new evidence on the impact of large-scaleneed-based grant programs on the college enrollment decisions, persistenceand graduation rates of low-income students. We exploit sharp discontinuitiesin the grant eligibility formula to identify the impact of aid on student outcomesat different levels of study. We find that eligibility for an annual cashallowance of 1,500 euros increases college enrollment rates by up to 5 percentagepoints. Moreover, we show that need-based grants have positive effectson student persistence and degree completion.

Socio-economic inequalities in reported depression in Spain : a decomposition approach

Recent evidence questions some conventional view on the existence of income-related inequalities in depression suggesting in turn that other determinants might be in place, such as activity status and educational attainment. Evidence of socio-economic inequalities is especially relevant in countries such as Spain that have a limited coverage of mental health care and are regionally heterogeneous. This paper aims at measuring and explaining the degree of socio-economic inequality in reported depression in Spain. We employ linear probability models to estimate the concentration index and its decomposition drawing from 2003 edition of the Spanish National Health Survey, the most recent representative health survey in Spain. Our findings point towards the existence of avoidable inequalities in the prevalence of reported depression. However, besides ¿pure income effects¿ explaining 37% of inequality, economic activity status (28%), education (15%) and demographics (15%) play also a key encompassing role. Although high income implies higher resources to invest and cure (mental) illness, environmental factors influencing in peoples perceived social status act as indirect path as explaining the prevalence of depression. Finally, we find evidence of a gender effect, gender social-economic inequality in income is mainly avoidable.