Optimal fiscal policy in overlapping generations models

[eng] This paper provides, from a theoretical and quantitative point of view, an explanation of why taxes on capital returns are high (around 35%) by analyzing the optimal fiscal policy in an economy with intergenerational redistribution. For this purpose, the government is modeled explicitly and can choose (and commit to) an optimal tax policy in order to maximize society's welfare. In an infinitely lived economy with heterogeneous agents, the long run optimal capital tax is zero. If heterogeneity is due to the existence of overlapping generations, this result in general is no longer true. I provide sufficient conditions for zero capital and labor taxes, and show that a general class of preferences, commonly used on the macro and public finance literature, violate these conditions. For a version of the model, calibrated to the US economy, the main results are: first, if the government is restricted to a set of instruments, the observed fiscal policy cannot be disregarded as sub optimal and capital taxes are positive and quantitatively relevant. Second, if the government can use age specific taxes for each generation, then the age profile capital tax pattern implies subsidizing asset returns of the younger generations and taxing at higher rates the asset returns of the older ones.

Scaling and data collapse for the mean exit time of asset prices

We study theoretical and empirical aspects of the mean exit time (MET) of financial time series. The theoretical modeling is done within the framework of continuous time random walk. We empirically verify that the mean exit time follows a quadratic scaling law and it has associated a prefactor which is specific to the analyzed stock. We perform a series of statistical tests to determine which kind of correlation are responsible for this specificity. The main contribution is associated with the autocorrelation property of stock returns. We introduce and solve analytically both two-state and three-state Markov chain models. The analytical results obtained with the two-state Markov chain model allows us to obtain a data collapse of the 20 measured MET profiles in a single master curve.

Random diffusion and leverage effect in financial markets

We prove that Brownian market models with random diffusion coefficients provide an exact measure of the leverage effect [J-P. Bouchaud et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 87, 228701 (2001)]. This empirical fact asserts that past returns are anticorrelated with future diffusion coefficient. Several models with random diffusion have been suggested but without a quantitative study of the leverage effect. Our analysis lets us to fully estimate all parameters involved and allows a deeper study of correlated random diffusion models that may have practical implications for many aspects of financial markets.

The relationship of capitalization period length with market portfolio composition and betas

Beta coefficients are not stable if we modify the observation periods of the returns. The market portfolio composition also varies, whereas changes in the betas are the same, whether they are calculated as regression coefficients or as a ratio of the risk premiums. The instantaneous beta, obtained when the capitalization frequency approaches infinity, may be a useful tool in portfolio selection.

EULAR recommendations for the management of large-vessel vasculitis.

Objectives: To develop European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) recommendations for the management of large vessel vasculitis. Methods: An expert group (10 rheumatologists, 3 nephrologists, 2 immunolgists, 2 internists representing 8 European countries and the USA, a clinical epidemiologist and a representative from a drug regulatory agency) identified 10 topics for a systematic literature search through a modified Delphi technique. In accordance with standardised EULAR operating procedures, recommendations were derived for the management of large vessel vasculitis. In the absence of evidence, recommendations were formulated on the basis of a consensus opinion. Results: Seven recommendations were made relating to the assessment, investigation and treatment of patients with large vessel vasculitis. The strength of recommendations was restricted by the low level of evidence and EULAR standardised operating procedures. Conclusions: On the basis of evidence and expert consensus, management recommendations for large vessel vasculitis have been formulated and are commended for use in everyday clinical practice.

EULAR recommendations for the management of primary small and medium vessel vasculitis.

Objectives: To develop European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) recommendations for the management of small and medium vessel vasculitis. Methods: An expert group (consisting of 10 rheumatologists, 3 nephrologists, 2 immunologists, 2 internists representing 8 European countries and the USA, a clinical epidemiologist and a representative from a drug regulatory agency) identified 10 topics for a systematic literature search using a modified Delphi technique. In accordance with standardised EULAR operating procedures, recommendations were derived for the management of small and medium vessel vasculitis. In the absence of evidence, recommendations were formulated on the basis of a consensus opinion. Results: In all, 15 recommendations were made for the management of small and medium vessel vasculitis. The strength of recommendations was restricted by low quality of evidence and by EULAR standardised operating procedures. Conclusions: On the basis of evidence and expert consensus, recommendations have been made for the evaluation, investigation, treatment and monitoring of patients with small and medium vessel vasculitis for use in everyday clinical practice.

Optimal fiscal policy in overlapping generations models

[eng] This paper provides, from a theoretical and quantitative point of view, an explanation of why taxes on capital returns are high (around 35%) by analyzing the optimal fiscal policy in an economy with intergenerational redistribution. For this purpose, the government is modeled explicitly and can choose (and commit to) an optimal tax policy in order to maximize society's welfare. In an infinitely lived economy with heterogeneous agents, the long run optimal capital tax is zero. If heterogeneity is due to the existence of overlapping generations, this result in general is no longer true. I provide sufficient conditions for zero capital and labor taxes, and show that a general class of preferences, commonly used on the macro and public finance literature, violate these conditions. For a version of the model, calibrated to the US economy, the main results are: first, if the government is restricted to a set of instruments, the observed fiscal policy cannot be disregarded as sub optimal and capital taxes are positive and quantitatively relevant. Second, if the government can use age specific taxes for each generation, then the age profile capital tax pattern implies subsidizing asset returns of the younger generations and taxing at higher rates the asset returns of the older ones.

Does human capital stimulate investment in physical capital?: Evidence from a cost system framework

The direct effect of human capital on economic growth has been widely analysed in the economic literature. This paper, however, focuses on its indirect effect as a stimulus for private investment in physical capital. The methodological framework used is the duality theory, estimating a cost system aggregated with human capital. Empirical evidence is given for Spain for the period 1980-2000. We provide evidence on the indirect effect of human capital in making private capital investment more attractive. Among the main explanations forthis process, we observe that higher worker skill levels enable higher returns to be extracted from investment in physical capital.

Clusters of entrepreneurship

Employment growth is strongly predicted by smaller average establishment size, both acrosscities and across industries within cities, but there is little consensus on why this relationshipexists. Traditional economic explanations emphasize factors that reduce entry costs or raiseentrepreneurial returns, thereby increasing net returns and attracting entrepreneurs. A secondclass of theories hypothesizes that some places are endowed with a greater supply of entrepreneurship. Evidence on sales per worker does not support the higher returns for entrepreneurshiprationale. Our evidence suggests that entrepreneurship is higher when fixed costs are lower andwhen there are more entrepreneurial people.

Uncertainty, electoral incentives and political myopia

We study the determinants of political myopia in a rational model of electoral accountability where the key elements are informational frictions and uncertainty. We build aframework where political ability is ex-ante unknown and policy choices are not perfectlyobservable. On the one hand, elections improve accountability and allow to keep well-performing incumbents. On the other, politicians invest too little in costly policies withfuture returns in an attempt to signal high ability and increase their reelection probability.Contrary to the conventional wisdom, uncertainty reduces political myopia and may, undersome conditions, increase social welfare. We use the model to study how political rewardscan be set so as to maximise social welfare and the desirability of imposing a one-term limitto governments. The predictions of our theory are consistent with a number of stylised factsand with a new empirical observation documented in this paper: aggregate uncertainty, measured by economic volatility, is associated to better fiscal discipline in a panel of 20 OECDcountries.

Do walking strategies to increase physical activity reduce reported sitting in workplaces: a randomized control trial

Background: Interventions designed to increase workplace physical activity may not automatically reduce high volumes of sitting, a behaviour independently linked to chronic diseases such as obesity and type II diabetes. This study compared the impact two different walking strategies had on step counts and reported sitting times. Methods: Participants were white-collar university employees (n = 179; age 41.3 ± 10.1 years; 141 women), who volunteered and undertook a standardised ten-week intervention at three sites. Preintervention step counts (Yamax SW-200) and self-reported sitting times were measured over five consecutive workdays. Using pre-intervention step counts, employees at each site were randomly allocated to a control group (n = 60; maintain normal behaviour), a route-based walking group (n = 60; at least 10 minutes sustained walking each workday) or an incidental walking group (n = 59; walking in workday tasks). Workday step counts and reported sitting times were re-assessed at the beginning, mid- and endpoint of intervention and group mean± SD steps/day and reported sitting times for pre-intervention and intervention measurement points compared using a mixed factorial ANOVA; paired sample-t-tests were used for follow-up, simple effect analyses. Results: A significant interactive effect (F = 3.5; p < 0.003) was found between group and step counts. Daily steps for controls decreased over the intervention period (-391 steps/day) and increased for route (968 steps/day; t = 3.9, p < 0.000) and incidental (699 steps/day; t = 2.5, p < 0.014) groups. There were no significant changes for reported sitting times, but average values did decrease relative to the control (routes group = 7 minutes/day; incidental group = 15 minutes/day). Reductions were most evident for the incidental group in the first week of intervention, where reported sitting decreased by an average of 21 minutes/day (t = 1.9; p < 0.057). Conclusion: Compared to controls, both route and incidental walking increased physical activity in white-collar employees. Our data suggests that workplace walking, particularly through incidental movement, also has the potential to decrease employee sitting times, but there is a need for on-going research using concurrent and objective measures of sitting, standing and walking.

Tema y narración en Eyes Wide Shut

A partir de la complejidad argumental y temática de la película Eyes Wide Shut, dirigida por Stanley Kubrick, se presenta una propuesta interpretativa que analiza la relación entre el tema de la película, la trama narrativa y la novela en que se basa, Traumnovelle (Relato soñado), de Arthur Schnitzler. La estructura argumental se sostiene en un elemento temático específico, los impulsos sexuales de una pareja –y los sueños y las fantasías vinculados–, en una trama en la que se suceden episodios que representan estos impulsos. Las escenas proyectan las tendencias del inconsciente de los personajes (en sueños, en fantasías y también en situaciones dudosamente reales) de forma cada vez más intensa, hasta llegar al anticlímax de cotidianidad con que concluye la película.

Le bon vin d’Orleans, le punays lac de Sorbone et la mode de Bretaigne: sociocentrisme lúdic i ambivalència als blasons populars del Pantagruel de Rabelais, amb mostres de versions en diferents llengües

En aquest article es presenta una selecció d’un corpus extret del Pantagruel, en el qual els personatges de Rabelais ataquen o afalaguen, grotescament i hiperbòlica, en el més pur estil pantagruèlic, les altres nacions o viles. Per a aquests epítets ètnics, Rabelais reutilitza el blasó popular (blason populaire), en una fusió total de la lloança i la injúria. En el nostre treball comprovarem si la visió sociocèntrica que el blasonador aplica al blasonat, així com el propòsit lúdic, han aconseguit ser traslladats a les versions catalana (Miquel-Àngel Sánchez Férriz, 1985), espanyola (Alicia Yllera, 2003), italiana (Mario Bonfantini, 1953) i anglesa (Burton Raffel, 1991).

Assessing farmers' vulnerability to climate change : a case study in Karnataka, India

In the context of observed climate change impacts and their effect on agriculture and crop production, this study intends to assess the vulnerability of rural livelihoods through a study case in Karnataka, India. The social approach of climate change vulnerability in this study case includes defining and exploring factors that determine farmers’ vulnerability in four villages. Key informant interviews, farmer workshops and structured household interviews were used for data collection. To analyse the data, we adapted and applied three vulnerability indices: Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI), LVI-IPCC and the Livelihood Effect Index (LEI), and used descriptive statistical methods. The data was analysed at two scales: whole sample-level and household level. The results from applying the indices for the whole-sample level show that this community's vulnerability to climate change is moderate, whereas the household-level results show that most of the households' vulnerability is high-very high, while 15 key drivers of vulnerability were identified. Results and limitations of the study are discussed under the rural livelihoods framework, in which the indices are based, allowing a better understanding of the social behaviouraltrends, as well as an holistic and integrated view of the climate change, agriculture, and livelihoods processes shaping vulnerability. We conclude that these indices, although a straightforward method to assess vulnerability, have limitations that could account for inaccuracies and inability to be standardised for benchmarking, therefore we stress the need for further research.

Diagnosis, prevention and treatment of hepatorenal syndrome in cirrhosis

Hepatorenal syndrome (HRS) is a serious complication of end-stage liver disease, occurring mainly in patients with advanced cirrhosis and ascites, who have marked circulatory dysfunction,1 as well as in patients with acute liver failure.2 In spite of its functional nature, HRS is associated with a poor prognosis,3 4 and the only effective treatment is liver transplantation. During the 56th Meeting of the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases, the International Ascites Club held a Focused Study Group (FSG) on HRS for the purpose of reporting the results of an international workshop and to reach a consensus on a new definition, criteria for diagnosis and recommendations on HRS treatment. A similar workshop was held in Chicago in 1994 in which standardised nomenclature and diagnostic criteria for refractory ascites and HRS were established.5 The introduction of innovative treatments and improvements in our understanding of the pathogenesis of HRS during the previous decade led to an increasing need to undertake a new consensus meeting. This paper reports the scientific rationale behind the new definitions and recommendations. The international workshop included four issues debated by four panels of experts (see Acknowledgements). The issues were: (1) evidence-based HRS pathogenesis; (2) treatment of HRS using vasoconstrictors; (3) other HRS treatments using transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic stent-shunt (TIPS) and extracorporeal albumin dialysis (ECAD); and (4) new definitions and diagnostic criteria for HRS and recommendations for its treatment.