Ignoring information in binary choice with continuous variables: When is less 'more'?

When can a single variable be more accurate in binary choice than multiple sources of information? We derive analytically the probability that a single variable (SV) will correctly predict one of two choices when both criterion and predictor are continuous variables. We further provide analogous derivations for multiple regression (MR) and equal weighting (EW) and specify the conditions under which the models differ in expected predictive ability. Key factors include variability in cue validities, intercorrelation between predictors, and the ratio of predictors to observations in MR. Theory and simulations are used to illustrate the differential effects of these factors. Results directly address why and when one-reason decision making can be more effective than analyses that use more information. We thus provide analytical backing to intriguing empirical results that, to date, have lacked theoretical justification. There are predictable conditions for which one should expect less to be more.

Periodic Solutions in Low-Dimensional Climatic Models

Classic climatic models use constitutive laws without any response time. A more realistic approach to the natural processes governing climate dynamics must introduce response time for heat and radiation fluxes. Extended irreversible thermodynamics (EIT) is a good thermodynamical framework for introducing nonclassical constitutive laws. In the present study EIT has been used to analyze a Budyko–Sellers one-dimensional energybalance model developed by G. R. North. The results present self-sustained periodic oscillations when the response time is greater than a critical value. The high-frequency (few kiloyears) damped and nondamped oscillations obtained can be related to abrupt climatic changes without any variation in the external forcing of the system

Second differential of the entropy as a criterion for the stability in low-dimensional climate models

The second differential of the entropy is used for analysing the stability of a thermodynamic climatic model. A delay time for the heat flux is introduced whereby it becomes an independent variable. Two different expressions for the second differential of the entropy are used: one follows classical irreversible thermodynamics theory; the second is related to the introduction of response time and is due to the extended irreversible thermodynamics theory. the second differential of the classical entropy leads to unstable solutions for high values of delay times. the extended expression always implies stable states for an ice-free earth. When the ice-albedo feedback is included, a discontinuous distribution of stable states is found for high response times. Following the thermodynamic analysis of the model, the maximum rates of entropy production at the steady state are obtained. A latitudinally isothermal earth produces the extremum in global entropy production. the material contribution to entropy production (by which we mean the production of entropy by material transport of heat) is a maximum when the latitudinal distribution of temperatures becomes less homogeneous than present values

Changes in leisure time and occupational physical activity over 8 years: The Cornellà health Interview Survey Follow-Up Study

Aim: To describe changes in leisure time and occupational physical activity status in an urban Mediterranean population-based cohort, and to evaluate sociodemographic, health-related and lifestyle correlates of such changes. Methods: Data for this study come from the Cornellè Health Interview Survey Follow-Up Study, a prospective cohort study of a representative sample (n¿=¿2500) of the population. Participants in the analysis reported here include 1246 subjects (567 men and 679 women) who had complete data on physical activity at the 1994 baseline survey and at the 2002 follow-up. We fitted Breslow-Cox regression models to assess the association between correlates of interest and changes in physical activity. Results: Regarding leisure time physical activity, 61.6% of cohort members with ¿sedentary¿ habits in 1994 changed their status to ¿light/moderate¿ physical activity in 2002, and 70% who had ¿light/moderate¿ habits in 1994 did not change their activity level. Regarding occupational physical activity, 74.4% of cohort members who were ¿active¿ did not change their level of activity, and 64.3% of participants with ¿sedentary¿ habits in 1994 changed to ¿active¿ occupational physical activity. No clear correlates of change in physical activity were identified in multivariate analyses. Conclusion: While changes in physical activity are evident in this population-based cohort, no clear determinants of such changes were recognised. Further longitudinal studies including other potential individual and contextual determinants are needed to better understand determinants of changes in physical activity at the population level.

Nonlinear inverse dynamic models of gas sensing systems based on chemical sensor arrays for quantitative measurements

Gas sensing systems based on low-cost chemical sensor arrays are gaining interest for the analysis of multicomponent gas mixtures. These sensors show different problems, e.g., nonlinearities and slow time-response, which can be partially solved by digital signal processing. Our approach is based on building a nonlinear inverse dynamic system. Results for different identification techniques, including artificial neural networks and Wiener series, are compared in terms of measurement accuracy.

A time-domain method for the analysis of thermal impedance response preserving the convolution form

The study of the thermal behavior of complex packages as multichip modules (MCM¿s) is usually carried out by measuring the so-called thermal impedance response, that is: the transient temperature after a power step. From the analysis of this signal, the thermal frequency response can be estimated, and consequently, compact thermal models may be extracted. We present a method to obtain an estimate of the time constant distribution underlying the observed transient. The method is based on an iterative deconvolution that produces an approximation to the time constant spectrum while preserving a convenient convolution form. This method is applied to the obtained thermal response of a microstructure as analyzed by finite element method as well as to the measured thermal response of a transistor array integrated circuit (IC) in a SMD package.

Non-constant discounting in finite horizon: The free terminal time case

This paper derives the HJB (Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman) equation for sophisticated agents in a finite horizon dynamic optimization problem with non-constant discounting in a continuous setting, by using a dynamic programming approach. A simple example is used in order to illustrate the applicability of this HJB equation, by suggesting a method for constructing the subgame perfect equilibrium solution to the problem.Conditions for the observational equivalence with an associated problem with constantdiscounting are analyzed. Special attention is paid to the case of free terminal time. Strotz¿s model (an eating cake problem of a nonrenewable resource with non-constant discounting) is revisited.

Nonideal particle distributions from kinetic freeze-out models

In fluid dynamical models the freeze-out of particles across a three-dimensional space-time hypersurface is discussed. The calculation of final momentum distribution of emitted particles is described for freeze-out surfaces, with both spacelike and timelike normals, taking into account conservation laws across the freeze-out discontinuity.

Time-dependent couplings and crossover length scales in nonequilibrium surface roughening

We show that time-dependent couplings may lead to nontrivial scaling properties of the surface fluctuations of the asymptotic regime in nonequilibrium kinetic roughening models. Three typical situations are studied. In the case of a crossover between two different rough regimes, the time-dependent coupling may result in anomalous scaling for scales above the crossover length. In a different setting, for a crossover from a rough to either a flat or damping regime, the time-dependent crossover length may conspire to produce a rough surface, although the most relevant term tends to flatten the surface. In addition, our analysis sheds light into an existing debate in the problem of spontaneous imbibition, where time-dependent couplings naturally arise in theoretical models and experiments.

Intensity correlation functions of dye lasers: Comparison of colored-gain-noise and colored-loss-noise models

The intensity correlation functions C(t) for the colored-gain-noise model of dye lasers are analyzed and compared with those for the loss-noise model. For correlation times ¿ larger than the deterministic relaxation time td, we show with the use of the adiabatic approximation that C(t) values coincide for both models. For small correlation times we use a method that provides explicit expressions of non-Markovian correlation functions, approximating simultaneously short- and long-time behaviors. Comparison with numerical simulations shows excellent results simultaneously for short- and long-time regimes. It is found that, when the correlation time of the noise increases, differences between the gain- and loss-noise models tend to disappear. The decay of C(t) for both models can be described by a time scale that approaches the deterministic relaxation time. However, in contrast with the loss-noise model, a secondary time scale remains for large times for the gain-noise model, which could allow one to distinguish between both models.

Percolation and cluster Monte Carlo dynamics for spin models

A general scheme for devising efficient cluster dynamics proposed in a previous paper [Phys. Rev. Lett. 72, 1541 (1994)] is extensively discussed. In particular, the strong connection among equilibrium properties of clusters and dynamic properties as the correlation time for magnetization is emphasized. The general scheme is applied to a number of frustrated spin models and the results discussed.

Invaded cluster dynamics for frustrated models

The invaded cluster (IC) dynamics introduced by Machta et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 75, 2792 (1995)] is extended to the fully frustrated Ising model on a square lattice. The properties of the dynamics that exhibits numerical evidence of self-organized criticality are studied. The fluctuations in the IC dynamics are shown to be intrinsic of the algorithm and the fluctuation-dissipation theorem is no longer valid. The relaxation time is found to be very short and does not present a critical size dependence.

Exact long-time behavior of a network of oscillators under random fields

We present an exact solution for the order parameters that characterize the stationary behavior of a population of Kuramotos phase oscillators under random external fields [Y. Kuramoto, in International Symposium on Mathematical Problems in Theoretical Physics, Lecture Notes in Physics, Vol. 39 (Springer, Berlin, 1975), p. 420]. From these results it is possible to generate the phase diagram of models with an arbitrary distribution of random frequencies and random fields.

Non-constant discounting in finite horizon: The free terminal time case

This paper derives the HJB (Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman) equation for sophisticated agents in a finite horizon dynamic optimization problem with non-constant discounting in a continuous setting, by using a dynamic programming approach. A simple example is used in order to illustrate the applicability of this HJB equation, by suggesting a method for constructing the subgame perfect equilibrium solution to the problem.Conditions for the observational equivalence with an associated problem with constantdiscounting are analyzed. Special attention is paid to the case of free terminal time. Strotz¿s model (an eating cake problem of a nonrenewable resource with non-constant discounting) is revisited.

The european higher education area at work: Lights and shadows defining continuous assessment

The aim of this paper is to analyse how learning assessment, particularly the Continuous Assessment system, has been defined in the Public Administration and Management Diploma Course of the University of Barcelona (Spain). This course was a pioneering experiment at this university in implementing the guidelines of the European Higher Education Area (EHEA), and thus represents a good case study for verifying whether one of the cornerstones of the EHEA has been accomplished with success. Using data obtained from the Teaching Plans elaborated by the lecturers of each subject, we are able to establish that the CA system has been progressively accepted to such an extent that it is now the assessment formula used by practically all of the lecturers, conforming in this way to the protocols laid down by the Faculty of Law in which this diploma course is taught. Nevertheless, we find that high dispersion exists in how Continuous Assessment is actually defined. Indeed, it seems that there is no unified view of how Continuous Assessment should be performed. This dispersion, however, seems to diminish over time and raises some questions about the advisability of agreement on criteria, considering the potential which CA has as a pedagogical tool. Moreover, we find that the Unique Assessment system, which students may also apply for, is an option chosen only by a minority, with lecturers usually defining it as merely a theoretical and/or practical test, of little innovation in relation to traditional tests.