Herramientas estadísticas para el estudio de perfiles de riesgo

En este documento se ilustra de un modo práctico, el empleo de tres instrumentos que permiten al actuario definir grupos arancelarios y estimar premios de riesgo en el proceso que tasa la clase para el seguro de no vida. El primero es el análisis de segmentación (CHAID y XAID) usado en primer lugar en 1997 por UNESPA en su cartera común de coches. El segundo es un proceso de selección gradual con el modelo de regresión a base de distancia. Y el tercero es un proceso con el modelo conocido y generalizado de regresión linear, que representa la técnica más moderna en la bibliografía actuarial. De estos últimos, si combinamos funciones de eslabón diferentes y distribuciones de error, podemos obtener el aditivo clásico y modelos multiplicativos

Option valuation as an expectation in the complex domain: The Black-Scholes case

It is very well known that the first succesful valuation of a stock option was done by solving a deterministic partial differential equation (PDE) of the parabolic type with some complementary conditions specific for the option. In this approach, the randomness in the option value process is eliminated through a no-arbitrage argument. An alternative approach is to construct a replicating portfolio for the option. From this viewpoint the payoff function for the option is a random process which, under a new probabilistic measure, turns out to be of a special type, a martingale. Accordingly, the value of the replicating portfolio (equivalently, of the option) is calculated as an expectation, with respect to this new measure, of the discounted value of the payoff function. Since the expectation is, by definition, an integral, its calculation can be made simpler by resorting to powerful methods already available in the theory of analytic functions. In this paper we use precisely two of those techniques to find the well-known value of a European call

Prices of medicines: a case-study on the impact of the rate-of-return regulation in the United Kingdom

This work carries out an empirical evaluation of the impact of the main mechanism for regulating the prices of medicines in the UK on a variety ofpharmaceutical price indices. The empirical evidence shows that the overall impact of the rate of return cap appears to have been slight or even null, and in any case that the impact would differ across therapeutic areas. These empiricalfindings suggest that the price regulation has managed to encourage UK-based firms¿ diversification in many therapeutic areas

The fossil record and evolution of freshwater plants: A review

Palaeobotany applied to freshwater plants is an emerging field of palaeontology. Hydrophytic plants reveal evolutionary trends of their own, clearly distinct from those of the terrestrial and marine flora. During the Precambrian, two groups stand out in the fossil record of freshwater plants: the Cyanobacteria (stromatolites) in benthic environments and the prasinophytes (leiosphaeridian acritarchs) in transitional planktonic environments. During the Palaeozoic, green algae (Chlorococcales, Zygnematales, charophytes and some extinct groups) radiated and developed the widest range of morphostructural patterns known for these groups. Between the Permian and Early Cretaceous, charophytes dominated macrophytic associations, with the consequence that over tens of millions of years, freshwater flora bypassed the dominance of vascular plants on land. During the Early Cretaceous, global extension of the freshwater environments is associated with diversification of the flora, including new charophyte families and the appearance of aquatic angiosperms and ferns for the first time. Mesozoic planktonic assemblages retained their ancestral composition that was dominated by coenobial Chlorococcales, until the appearance of freshwater dinoflagellates in the Early Cretaceous. In the Late Cretaceous, freshwater angiosperms dominated almost all macrophytic communities worldwide. The Tertiary was characterised by the diversification of additional angiosperm and aquatic fern lineages, which resulted in the first differentiation of aquatic plant biogeoprovinces. Phytoplankton also diversified during the Eocene with the development of freshwater diatoms and chrysophytes. Diatoms, which were exclusively marine during tens of millions of years, were dominant over the Chlorococcales during Neogene and in later assemblages. During the Quaternary, aquatic plant communities suffered from the effects of eutrophication, paludification and acidification, which were the result of the combined impact of glaciation and anthropogenic disturbance.

Shaping mechanisms of metal specificity in a family of metazoan Metallothioneins: evolutionary differentiation of Mollusc MTs.

Background: The degree of metal binding specificity in metalloproteins such as metallothioneins (MTs) can be crucial for their functional accuracy. Unlike most other animal species, pulmonate molluscs possess homometallic MT isoforms loaded with Cu+ or Cd2+. They have, so far, been obtained as native metal-MT complexes from snail tissues, where they are involved in the metabolism of the metal ion species bound to the respective isoform. However, it has not as yet been discerned if their specific metal occupation is the result of a rigid control of metal availability, or isoform expression programming in the hosting tissues or of structural differences of the respective peptides determining the coordinative options for the different metal ions. In this study, the Roman snail (Helix pomatia) Cu-loaded and Cd-loaded isoforms (HpCuMT and HpCdMT) were used as model molecules in order t o elucidate the biochemical and evolutionary mechanisms permitting pulmonate MTs to achieve specificity for their cognate metal ion. Results: HpCuMT and HpCdMT were recombinantly synthesized in the presence of Cd2+, Zn2+ or Cu2+ and corresponding metal complexes analysed by electrospray mass spectrometry and circular dichroism (CD) and ultra violet-visible (UV-Vis) spectrophotometry. Both MT isoforms were only able to form unique, homometallic and stable complexes (Cd6-HpCdMT and Cu12-HpCuMT) with their cognate metal ions. Yeast complementation assays demonstrated that the two isoforms assumed metal-specific functions, in agreement with their binding preferences, in heterologous eukaryotic environments. In the snail organism, the functional metal specificity of HpCdMT and HpCuMT was contributed by metal-specific transcription programming and cell-specific expression. Sequence elucidation and phylogenetic analysis of MT isoforms from a number of snail species revealed that they possess an unspecific and two metal-specific MT isoforms, whose metal specificity was achieved exclusively by evolutionary modulation of non-cysteine amino acid positions. Conclusion: The Roman snail HpCdMT and HpCuMT isoforms can thus be regarded as prototypes of isoform families that evolved genuine metal-specificity within pulmonate molluscs. Diversification into these isoforms may have been initiated by gene duplication, followed by speciation and selection towards opposite needs for protecting copper-dominated metabolic pathways from nonessential cadmium. The mechanisms enabling these proteins to be metal-specific could also be relevant for other metalloproteins.

Comparative genomics of the odorant-binding and chemosensory protein gene families across the arthropoda: origin and evolutionary history of the chemosensory system

Chemoreception is a biological process essential for the survival of animals, as it allows the recognition of important volatile cues for the detection of food, egg-laying substrates, mates or predators, among other purposes. Furthermore, its role in pheromone detection may contribute to evolutionary processes such as reproductive isolation and speciation. This key role in several vital biological processes makes chemoreception a particularly interesting system for studying the role of natural selection in molecular adaptation. Two major gene families are involved in the perireceptor events of the chemosensory system: the odorant-binding protein (OBP) and chemosensory protein (CSP) families. Here, we have conducted an exhaustive comparative genomic analysis of these gene families in twenty Arthropoda species. We show that the evolution of the OBP and CSP gene families is highly dynamic, with a high number of gains and losses of genes, pseudogenes and independent origins of subfamilies. Taken together, our data clearly support the birth-and-death model for the evolution of these gene families with an overall high gene-turnover rate. Moreover, we show that the genome organization of the two families is significantly more clustered than expected by chance and, more important, that this pattern appears to be actively maintained across the Drosophila phylogeny. Finally, we suggest the homologous nature of the OBP and CSP gene families, dating back their MRCA (most recent common ancestor) to 380¿420 Mya, and we propose a scenario for the origin and diversification of these families.

Schmidtea mediterranea phylogeography: an old species surviving on a few mediterranean islands?

Schmidtea mediterranea (Platyhelminthes, Tricladida, Continenticola) is found in scattered localities on a few islands and in coastal areas of the western Mediterranean. Although S. mediterranea is the object of many regeneration studies, little is known about its evolutionary history. Its present distribution has been proposed to stem from the fragmentation and migration of the Corsica-Sardinia microplate during the formation of the western Mediterranean basin, which implies an ancient origin for the species. To test this hypothesis, we obtained a large number of samples from across its distribution area. Using known and new molecular markers and, for the first time in planarians, a molecular clock, we analysed the genetic variability and demographic parameters within the species and between its sexual and asexual populations to estimate when they diverged. Results: A total of 2 kb from three markers (COI, CYB and a nuclear intron N13) was amplified from ~200 specimens. Molecular data clustered the studied populations into three groups that correspond to the west, central and southeastern geographical locations of the current distribution of S. mediterranea. Mitochondrial genes show low haplotype and nucleotide diversity within populations but demonstrate higher values when all individuals are considered. The nuclear marker shows higher values of genetic diversity than the mitochondrial genes at the population level, but asexual populations present lower variability than the sexual ones. Neutrality tests are significant for some populations. Phylogenetic and dating analyses show the three groups to be monophyletic, with the west group being the basal group. The time when the diversification of the species occurred is between ~20 and ~4 mya, although the asexual nature of the western populations could have affected the dating analyses. Conclusions: S. mediterranea is an old species that is sparsely distributed in a harsh habitat, which is probably the consequence of the migration of the Corsica-Sardinia block. This species probably adapted to temperate climates in the middle of a changing Mediterranean climate that eventually became dry and hot. These data also suggest that in the mainland localities of Europe and Africa, sexual individuals of S. mediterranea are being replaced by asexual individuals that are either conspecific or are from other species that are better adapted to the Mediterranean climate.

Comparative genomic analysis of the odorant-binding protein family in 12 Drosophila genomes: purifying selection and birth-and-death evolution

Background: Chemoreception is a widespread mechanism that is involved in critical biologic processes, including individual and social behavior. The insect peripheral olfactory system comprises three major multigene families: the olfactory receptor (Or), the gustatory receptor (Gr), and the odorant-binding protein (OBP) families. Members of the latter family establish the first contact with the odorants, and thus constitute the first step in the chemosensory transduction pathway.Results: Comparative analysis of the OBP family in 12 Drosophila genomes allowed the identification of 595 genes that encode putative functional and nonfunctional members in extant species, with 43 gene gains and 28 gene losses (15 deletions and 13 pseudogenization events). The evolution of this family shows tandem gene duplication events, progressive divergence in DNA and amino acid sequence, and prevalence of pseudogenization events in external branches of the phylogenetic tree. We observed that the OBP arrangement in clusters is maintained across the Drosophila species and that purifying selection governs the evolution of the family; nevertheless, OBP genes differ in their functional constraints levels. Finally, we detect that the OBP repertoire evolves more rapidly in the specialist lineages of the Drosophila melanogaster group (D. sechellia and D. erecta) than in their closest generalists.Conclusion: Overall, the evolution of the OBP multigene family is consistent with the birth-and-death model. We also found that members of this family exhibit different functional constraints, which is indicative of some functional divergence, and that they might be involved in some of the specialization processes that occurred through the diversification of the Drosophila genus.

Confusió i borsa

En aquest article es conceptualitza la confusió en termes d'incertesa, considerant posteriorment com intervé en el procés de formació de creences i en la presa de decisions d'inversió i distingint tres tipus d'estratègies inversores, la diversificació, la concentració en empreses confiant en el pla empresarial i en la capacitat de gestió i, finalment, el seguidisme, referent a l'estratègia basada en confiar en tercers (rumors, notícies, experts, gurus ...). D'acord amb aquesta anàlisi, s'estableix la influència de la informació i la confusió en formació de les bombolles financeres i s'il·lustra amb l'exemple de la bombolla immobiliària i el crac borsari de 2008 a Espanya.

Herramientas estadísticas para el estudio de perfiles de riesgo

En este documento se ilustra de un modo práctico, el empleo de tres instrumentos que permiten al actuario definir grupos arancelarios y estimar premios de riesgo en el proceso que tasa la clase para el seguro de no vida. El primero es el análisis de segmentación (CHAID y XAID) usado en primer lugar en 1997 por UNESPA en su cartera común de coches. El segundo es un proceso de selección gradual con el modelo de regresión a base de distancia. Y el tercero es un proceso con el modelo conocido y generalizado de regresión linear, que representa la técnica más moderna en la bibliografía actuarial. De estos últimos, si combinamos funciones de eslabón diferentes y distribuciones de error, podemos obtener el aditivo clásico y modelos multiplicativos