On heuristic and linear models of judgment: Mapping the demand for knowledge

Research on judgment and decision making presents a confusing picture of human abilities. For example, much research has emphasized the dysfunctional aspects of judgmental heuristics, and yet, other findings suggest that these can be highly effective. A further line of research has modeled judgment as resulting from as if linear models. This paper illuminates the distinctions in these approaches by providing a common analytical framework based on the central theoretical premise that understanding human performance requires specifying how characteristics of the decision rules people use interact with the demands of the tasks they face. Our work synthesizes the analytical tools of lens model research with novel methodology developed to specify the effectiveness of heuristics in different environments and allows direct comparisons between the different approaches. We illustrate with both theoretical analyses and simulations. We further link our results to the empirical literature by a meta-analysis of lens model studies and estimate both human andheuristic performance in the same tasks. Our results highlight the trade-off betweenlinear models and heuristics. Whereas the former are cognitively demanding, the latterare simple to use. However, they require knowledge and thus maps of when andwhich heuristic to employ.

Detection of moving groups among early type stars

Our procedure to detect moving groups in the solar neighbourhood (Chen et al., 1997) in the four-dimensional space of the stellar velocity components and age has been improved. The method, which takes advantadge of non-parametric estimators of density distribution to avoid any a priori knowledge of the kinematic properties of these stellar groups, now includes the effect of observational errors on the process to select moving group stars, uses a better estimation of the density distribution of the total sample and field stars, and classifies moving group stars using all the available information. It is applied here to an accurately selected sample of early-type stars with known radial velocities and Strömgren photometry. Astrometric data are taken from the HIPPARCOS catalogue (ESA, 1997), which results in an important decrease in the observational errors with respect to ground-based data, and ensures the uniformity of the observed data. Both the improvement of our method and the use of precise astrometric data have allowed us not only to confirm the existence of classical moving groups, but also to detect finer structures that in several cases can be related to kinematic properties of nearby open clusters or associations.

Super-resolution of remotely sensed images with variable-pixel linear reconstruction

This paper describes the development and applications of a super-resolution method, known as Super-Resolution Variable-Pixel Linear Reconstruction. The algorithm works combining different lower resolution images in order to obtain, as a result, a higher resolution image. We show that it can make significant spatial resolution improvements to satellite images of the Earth¿s surface allowing recognition of objects with size approaching the limiting spatial resolution of the lower resolution images. The algorithm is based on the Variable-Pixel Linear Reconstruction algorithm developed by Fruchter and Hook, a well-known method in astronomy but never used for Earth remote sensing purposes. The algorithm preserves photometry, can weight input images according to the statistical significance of each pixel, and removes the effect of geometric distortion on both image shape and photometry. In this paper, we describe its development for remote sensing purposes, show the usefulness of the algorithm working with images as different to the astronomical images as the remote sensing ones, and show applications to: 1) a set of simulated multispectral images obtained from a real Quickbird image; and 2) a set of multispectral real Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) images. These examples show that the algorithm provides a substantial improvement in limiting spatial resolution for both simulated and real data sets without significantly altering the multispectral content of the input low-resolution images, without amplifying the noise, and with very few artifacts.

Linear and nonlinear optical properties of Si nanocrystals in SiO2 deposited by plasma-enhanced chemical-vapor deposition

Linear and nonlinear optical properties of silicon suboxide SiOx films deposited by plasma-enhanced chemical-vapor deposition have been studied for different Si excesses up to 24¿at.¿%. The layers have been fully characterized with respect to their atomic composition and the structure of the Si precipitates. Linear refractive index and extinction coefficient have been determined in the whole visible range, enabling to estimate the optical bandgap as a function of the Si nanocrystal size. Nonlinear optical properties have been evaluated by the z-scan technique for two different excitations: at 0.80¿eV in the nanosecond regime and at 1.50¿eV in the femtosecond regime. Under nanosecond excitation conditions, the nonlinear process is ruled by thermal effects, showing large values of both nonlinear refractive index (n2 ~ ¿10¿8¿cm2/W) and nonlinear absorption coefficient (ß ~ 10¿6¿cm/W). Under femtosecond excitation conditions, a smaller nonlinear refractive index is found (n2 ~ 10¿12¿cm2/W), typical of nonlinearities arising from electronic response. The contribution per nanocrystal to the electronic third-order nonlinear susceptibility increases as the size of the Si nanoparticles is reduced, due to the appearance of electronic transitions between discrete levels induced by quantum confinement.

Shot noise in linear macroscopic resistors

We report on direct experimental evidence of shot noise in a linear macroscopic resistor. The origin of the shot noise comes from the fluctuation of the total number of charge carriers inside the resistor associated with their diffusive motion under the condition that the dielectric relaxation time becomes longer than the dynamic transit time. The present results show that neither potential barriers nor the absence of inelastic scattering are necessary to observe shot noise in electronic devices.

A theoretical and practical study on linear reforms of dual taxes

[cat] En aquest treball extenem les reformes lineals introduïdes per Pfähler (1984) al cas d’impostos duals. Estudiem l’efecte relatiu que els retalls lineals duals d’un impost dual tenen sobre la distribució de la desigualtat -es pot fer un estudi simètric per al cas d’augments d’impostos-. Tambe introduïm mesures del grau de progressivitat d’impostos duals i mostrem que estan connectades amb el criteri de dominació de Lorenz. Addicionalment, estudiem l’elasticitat de la càrrega fiscal de cadascuna de les reformes proposades. Finalment, gràcies a un model de microsimulació i una gran base de dades que conté informació sobre l’IRPF espanyol de l’any 2004, 1) comparem l’efecte que diferents reformes tindrien sobre l’impost dual espanyol i 2) estudiem quina redistribució de la riquesa va suposar la reforma dual de l’IRPF (Llei ’35/2006’) respecte l’anterior impost.

Linear least squares estimation of the first order moving average parameter

We propose an iterative procedure to minimize the sum of squares function which avoids the nonlinear nature of estimating the first order moving average parameter and provides a closed form of the estimator. The asymptotic properties of the method are discussed and the consistency of the linear least squares estimator is proved for the invertible case. We perform various Monte Carlo experiments in order to compare the sample properties of the linear least squares estimator with its nonlinear counterpart for the conditional and unconditional cases. Some examples are also discussed

Herramientas estadísticas para el estudio de perfiles de riesgo

En este documento se ilustra de un modo práctico, el empleo de tres instrumentos que permiten al actuario definir grupos arancelarios y estimar premios de riesgo en el proceso que tasa la clase para el seguro de no vida. El primero es el análisis de segmentación (CHAID y XAID) usado en primer lugar en 1997 por UNESPA en su cartera común de coches. El segundo es un proceso de selección gradual con el modelo de regresión a base de distancia. Y el tercero es un proceso con el modelo conocido y generalizado de regresión linear, que representa la técnica más moderna en la bibliografía actuarial. De estos últimos, si combinamos funciones de eslabón diferentes y distribuciones de error, podemos obtener el aditivo clásico y modelos multiplicativos

Systematic trends in self-consistent calculations of linear quantum wires

Systematic trends in the properties of a linear split-gate heterojunction are studied by solving iteratively the Poisson and Schrödinger equations for different gate potentials and temperatures. A two-dimensional approximation is presented that is much simpler in the numerical implementation and that accurately reproduces all significant trends. In deriving this approximation, we provide a rigorous and quantitative basis for the formulation of models that assumes a two-dimensional character for the electron gas at the junction.

Linear relation between deuteron matter radius and the scattering length

We explain the empirical linear relations between the triplet scattering length, or the asymptotic normalization constant, and the deuteron matter radius using the effective range expansion in a manner similar to a recent paper by Bhaduri et al. We emphasize the corrections due to the finite force range and to shape dependence. The discrepancy between the experimental values and the empirical line shows the need for a larger value of the wound extension, a parameter which we introduce here. Short-distance nonlocality of the n-p interaction is a plausible explanation for the discrepancy.

The groups of Poincaré and Galilei in arbitrary dimensional spaces

In arbitrary dimensional spaces the Lie algebra of the Poincaré group is seen to be a subalgebra of the complex Galilei algebra, while the Galilei algebra is a subalgebra of Poincar algebra. The usual contraction of the Poincar to the Galilei group is seen to be equivalent to a certain coordinate transformation.