Determining shoal membership using affinity propagation

We propose using the affinity propagation (AP) clustering algorithm for detecting multiple disjoint shoals, and we present an extension of AP, denoted by STAP, that can be applied to shoals that fusion and fission across time. STAP incorporates into AP a soft temporal constraint that takes cluster dynamics into account, encouraging partitions obtained at successive time steps to be consistent with each other. We explore how STAP performs under different settings of its parameters (strength of the temporal constraint, preferences, and distance metric) by applying the algorithm to simulated sequences of collective coordinated motion. We study the validity of STAP by comparing its results to partitioning of the same data obtained from human observers in a controlled experiment. We observe that, under specific circumstances, AP yields partitions that agree quite closely with the ones made by human observers. We conclude that using the STAP algorithm with appropriate parameter settings is an appealing approach for detecting shoal fusion-fission dynamics.

A subalpine rangeland bird community before and after fire: prescribed burning in the Eastern Pyrenees

High mountain rangelands host important populations of threatened bird species, but can be affected by extensive changes in land use. I studied the breeding bird community of two shrubland plots at 1,850–2,100 m a.s.l. in the Pyrenees. Breeding territories were mapped for four years, before and after the prescribed burning, the aim of which was to increase the grazing value of the study area. The most abundant species (reaching ≥3 breeding pairs/10 ha in at least one plot and one year) were Dunnock Prunella modularis, Dartford Warbler Sylvia undata, Stonechat Saxicola torquatus, Rock Bunting Emberiza cia and Ortolan Bunting E. hortulana. The open-shrubland plot contained a similar number of breeding species (10 vs.9), but a lower overall density (23 vs. 28 breeding pairs/10 ha) than the dense-shrubland plot. Most breeding species alsooccurred in winter. After fire, the number of bird species, overall density and conservation value (an index that takes into account all species’ densities and their categories of conservation concern in Europe) decreased, but tended to recover afterwards. These results may help understand the composition and dynamics of bird assemblages in managed mountain areas

Progress in front propagation research

We review the progress in the field of front propagation in recent years. We survey many physical, biophysical and cross-disciplinary applications, including reduced-variable models of combustion flames, Reid's paradox of rapid forest range expansions, the European colonization of North America during the 19th century, the Neolithic transition in Europe from 13 000 to 5000 years ago, the description of subsistence boundaries, the formation of cultural boundaries, the spread of genetic mutations, theory and experiments on virus infections, models of cancer tumors, etc. Recent theoretical advances are unified in a single framework, encompassing very diverse systems such as those with biased random walks, distributed delays, sequential reaction and dispersion, cohabitation models, age structure and systems with several interacting species. Directions for future progress are outlined

Is response to fire influenced by dietary specialization and mobility? A comparative study with multiple animal assemblages

Fire is a major agent involved in landscape transformation and an indirect cause of changes in species composition. Responses to fire may vary greatly depending on life histories and functional traits of species. We have examined the taxonomic and functional responses to fire of eight taxonomic animal groups displaying a gradient of dietary and mobility patterns: Gastropoda, Heteroptera, Formicidae, Coleoptera, Araneae, Orthoptera, Reptilia and Aves. The fieldwork was conducted in a Mediterranean protected area on 3 sites (one unburnt and two burnt with different postfire management practices) with five replicates per site. We collected information from 4606 specimens from 274 animal species. Similarity in species composition and abundance between areas was measured by the Bray-Curtis index and ANOSIM, and comparisons between animal and plant responses by Mantel tests. We analyze whether groups with the highest percentage of omnivorous species, these species being more generalist in their dietary habits, show weak responses to fire (i.e. more similarity between burnt and unburnt areas), and independent responses to changes in vegetation. We also explore how mobility, i.e. dispersal ability, influences responses to fire. Our results demonstrate that differences in species composition and abundance between burnt and unburnt areas differed among groups. We found a tendency towards presenting lower differences between areas for groups with higher percentages of omnivorous species. Moreover, taxa with a higher percentage of omnivorous species had significantly more independent responses of changes in vegetation. High- (e.g. Aves) and low-mobility (e.g. Gastropoda) groups had the strongest responses to fire (higher R scores of the ANOSIM); however, we failed to find a significant general pattern with all the groups according to their mobility. Our results partially support the idea that functional traits underlie the response of organisms to environmental changes caused by fire.

Modelling the disability severity score in motor insurance claims: an application to the Spanish case

Bodily injury claims have the greatest impact on the claim costs of motor insurance companies. The disability severity of motor claims is assessed in numerous European countries by means of score systems. In this paper a zero inflated generalized Poisson regression model is implemented to estimate the disability severity score of victims in-volved in motor accidents on Spanish roads. We show that the injury severity estimates may be automatically converted into financial terms by insurers at any point of the claim handling process. As such, the methodology described may be used by motor insurers operating in the Spanish market to monitor the size of bodily injury claims. By using insurance data, various applications are presented in which the score estimate of disability severity is of value to insurers, either for computing the claim compensation or for claim reserve purposes.

Erwinia amylovora Novel Plasmid pEI70: Complete Sequence, Biogeography, and Role in Aggressiveness in the Fire Blight Phytopathogen

Comparative genomics of several strains of Erwinia amylovora, a plant pathogenic bacterium causal agent of fire blight disease, revealed that its diversity is primarily attributable to the flexible genome comprised of plasmids. We recently identified and sequenced in full a novel 65.8 kb plasmid, called pEI70. Annotation revealed a lack of known virulence-related genes, but found evidence for a unique integrative conjugative element related to that of other plant and human pathogens. Comparative analyses using BLASTN showed that pEI70 is almost entirely included in plasmid pEB102 from E. billingiae, an epiphytic Erwinia of pome fruits, with sequence identities superior to 98%. A duplex PCR assay was developed to survey the prevalence of plasmid pEI70 and also that of pEA29, which had previously been described in several E. amylovora strains. Plasmid pEI70 was found widely dispersed across Europe with frequencies of 5–92%, but it was absent in E. amylovora analyzed populations from outside of Europe. Restriction analysis and hybridization demonstrated that this plasmid was identical in at least 13 strains. Curing E. amylovora strains of pEI70 reduced their aggressiveness on pear, and introducing pEI70 into low-aggressiveness strains lacking this plasmid increased symptoms development in this host. Discovery of this novel plasmid offers new insights into the biogeography, evolution and virulence determinants in E. amylovora

Modelling nitrogen and phosphorus loads in a Mediterranean river catchment (La Tordera, NE Spain)

Human activities have resulted in increased nutrient levels in many rivers all over Europe. Sustainable management of river basins demands an assessment of the causes and consequences of human alteration of nutrient flows, together with an evaluation of management options. In the context of an integrated and interdisciplinary environmental assessment (IEA) of nutrient flows, we present and discuss the application of the nutrient emission model MONERIS (MOdelling Nutrient Emissions into River Systems) to the Catalan river basin, La Tordera (north-east Spain), for the period 1996–2002. After a successful calibration and verification process (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies E=0.85 for phosphorus and E=0.86 for nitrogen), the application of the model MONERIS proved to be useful in estimating nutrient loads. Crucial for model calibration, in-stream retention was estimated to be about 50 % of nutrient emissions on an annual basis. Through this process, we identified the importance of point sources for phosphorus emissions (about 94% for 1996–2002), and diffuse sources, especially inputs via groundwater, for nitrogen emissions (about 31% for 1996–2002). Despite hurdles related to model structure, observed loads, and input data encountered during the modelling process, MONERIS provided a good representation of the major interannual and spatial patterns in nutrient emissions. An analysis of the model uncertainty and sensitivity to input data indicates that the model MONERIS, even in data-starved Mediterranean catchments, may be profitably used by water managers for evaluating quantitative nutrient emission scenarios for the purpose of managing river basins. As an example of scenario modelling, an analysis of the changes in nutrient emissions through two different future scenarios allowed the identification of a set of relevant measures to reduce nutrient loads.

Predicting overall service quality: a structural equation modelling approach

In this article, the results of a modified SERVQUAL questionnaire (Parasuraman et al., 1991) are reported. The modifications consisted in substituting questionnaire items particularly suited to a specific service (banking) and context (county of Girona, Spain) for the original rather general and abstract items. These modifications led to more interpretable factors which accounted for a higher percentage of item variance. The data were submitted to various structural equation models which made it possible to conclude that the questionnaire contains items with a high measurement quality with respect to five identified dimensions of service quality which differ from those specified by Parasuraman et al. And are specific to the banking service. The two dimensions relating to the behaviour of employees have the greatest predictive power on overall quality and satisfaction ratings, which enables managers to use a low-cost reduced version of the questionnaire to monitor quality on a regular basis. It was also found that satisfaction and overall quality were perfectly correlated thus showing that customers do not perceive these concepts as being distinct

Improved understanding of drought controls on seasonal variation in Mediterranean forest canopy CO2 and water fluxes through combined in situ measurements and ecosystem modelling

Water stress is a defining characteristic of Mediterranean ecosystems, and is likely to become more severe in the coming decades. Simulation models are key tools for making predictions, but our current understanding of how soil moisture controls ecosystem functioning is not sufficient to adequately constrain parameterisations. Canopy-scale flux data from four forest ecosystems with Mediterranean-type climates were used in order to analyse the physiological controls on carbon and water flues through the year. Significant non-stomatal limitations on photosynthesis were detected, along with lesser changes in the conductance-assimilation relationship. New model parameterisations were derived and implemented in two contrasting modelling approaches. The effectiveness of two models, one a dynamic global vegetation model ('ORCHIDEE'), and the other a forest growth model particularly developed for Mediterranean simulations ('GOTILWA+'), was assessed and modelled canopy responses to seasonal changes in soil moisture were analysed in comparison with in situ flux measurements. In contrast to commonly held assumptions, we find that changing the ratio of conductance to assimilation under natural, seasonally-developing, soil moisture stress is not sufficient to reproduce forest canopy CO2 and water fluxes. However, accurate predictions of both CO2 and water fluxes under all soil moisture levels encountered in the field are obtained if photosynthetic capacity is assumed to vary with soil moisture. This new parameterisation has important consequences for simulated responses of carbon and water fluxes to seasonal soil moisture stress, and should greatly improve our ability to anticipate future impacts of climate changes on the functioning of ecosystems in Mediterranean-type climates.

Simulation of Delamination Propagation in Composites Under High-Cycle Fatigue by Means of Cohesive-Zone Models

A damage model for the simulation of delamination propagation under high-cycle fatigue loading is proposed. The basis for the formulation is a cohesive law that links fracture and damage mechanics to establish the evolution of the damage variable in terms of the crack growth rate dA/dN. The damage state is obtained as a function of the loading conditions as well as the experimentally-determined coefficients of the Paris Law crack propagation rates for the material. It is shown that by using the constitutive fatigue damage model in a structural analysis, experimental results can be reproduced without the need of additional model-specific curve-fitting parameters

Propagation through fractal media: The Sierpinski gasket and the Koch curve

We present new analytical tools able to predict the averaged behavior of fronts spreading through self-similar spatial systems starting from reaction-diffusion equations. The averaged speed for these fronts is predicted and compared with the predictions from a more general equation (proposed in a previous work of ours) and simulations. We focus here on two fractals, the Sierpinski gasket (SG) and the Koch curve (KC), for two reasons, i.e. i) they are widely known structures and ii) they are deterministic fractals, so the analytical study of them turns out to be more intuitive. These structures, despite their simplicity, let us observe several characteristics of fractal fronts. Finally, we discuss the usefulness and limitations of our approa

Vertical cultural transmission effects on demic front propagation: Theory and application to the Neolithic transition in Europe

It is shown that Lotka-Volterra interaction terms are not appropriate to describe vertical cultural transmission. Appropriate interaction terms are derived and used to compute the effect of vertical cultural transmission on demic front propagation. They are also applied to a specific example, the Neolithic transition in Europe. In this example, it is found that the effect of vertical cultural transmission can be important (about 30%). On the other hand, simple models based on differential equations can lead to large errors (above 50%). Further physical, biophysical, and cross-disciplinary applications are outlined

Bowing the violin : a case study for auditory-motor pattern modelling in the context of music performance

This project addresses methodological and technological challenges in the development of multi-modal data acquisition and analysis methods for the representation of instrumental playing technique in music performance through auditory-motor patterning models. The case study is violin playing: a multi-modal database of violin performances has been constructed by recording different musicians while playing short exercises on different violins. The exercise set and recording protocol have been designed to sample the space defined by dynamics (from piano to forte) and tone (from sul tasto to sul ponticello), for each bow stroke type being played on each of the four strings (three different pitches per string) at two different tempi. The data, containing audio, video, and motion capture streams, has been processed and segmented to facilitate upcoming analyses. From the acquired motion data, the positions of the instrument string ends and the bow hair ribbon ends are tracked and processed to obtain a number of bowing descriptors suited for a detailed description and analysis of the bow motion patterns taking place during performance. Likewise, a number of sound perceptual attributes are computed from the audio streams. Besides the methodology and the implementation of a number of data acquisition tools, this project introduces preliminary results from analyzing bowing technique on a multi-modal violin performance database that is unique in its class. A further contribution of this project is the data itself, which will be made available to the scientific community through the repovizz platform.