Conditional predictive density evaluation in the presence of instabilities

We propose new methods for evaluating predictive densities. The methods includeKolmogorov-Smirnov and Cram?r-von Mises-type tests for the correct specification ofpredictive densities robust to dynamic mis-specification. The novelty is that the testscan detect mis-specification in the predictive densities even if it appears only overa fraction of the sample, due to the presence of instabilities. Our results indicatethat our tests are well sized and have good power in detecting mis-specification inpredictive densities, even when it is time-varying. An application to density forecastsof the Survey of Professional Forecasters demonstrates the usefulness of the proposedmethodologies.

Traces of functions in Fock spaces on lattices of critical density

Following a scheme of Levin we describe the values that functions in Fock spaces take on lattices of critical density in terms of both the size of the values and a cancelation condition that involves discrete versions of the Cauchy and Beurling-Ahlfors transforms.

A consistent extension of the local spin density approximation to account for quantum dot mass and dielectric mismatches

A consistent extension of local spin density approximation (LSDA) to account for mass and dielectric mismatches in nanocrystals is presented. The extension accounting for variable effective mass is exact. Illustrative comparisons with available configuration interaction calculations show that the approach is also very reliable when it comes to account for dielectric mismatches. The modified LSDA is as fast and computationally low demanding as LSDA. Therefore, it is a tool suitable to study large particle systems in inhomogeneous media without much effort.

Minimal requirements for parameters to be used for the development of predictive models for microbial source tracking. The example of the pair somatic coliphages and phages infecting Bacteroides

Several methods and approaches for measuring parameters to determine fecal sources of pollution in water have been developed in recent years. No single microbial or chemical parameter has proved sufficient to determine the source of fecal pollution. Combinations of parameters involving at least one discriminating indicator and one universal fecal indicator offer the most promising solutions for qualitative and quantitative analyses. The universal (nondiscriminating) fecal indicator provides quantitative information regarding the fecal load. The discriminating indicator contributes to the identification of a specific source. The relative values of the parameters derived from both kinds of indicators could provide information regarding the contribution to the total fecal load from each origin. It is also essential that both parameters characteristically persist in the environment for similar periods. Numerical analysis, such as inductive learning methods, could be used to select the most suitable and the lowest number of parameters to develop predictive models. These combinations of parameters provide information on factors affecting the models, such as dilution, specific types of animal source, persistence of microbial tracers, and complex mixtures from different sources. The combined use of the enumeration of somatic coliphages and the enumeration of Bacteroides-phages using different host specific strains (one from humans and another from pigs), both selected using the suggested approach, provides a feasible model for quantitative and qualitative analyses of fecal source identification.

A performance lower bound for quadratic timing recovery accounting for the symbol transition density

The symbol transition density in a digitally modulated signal affects the performance of practical synchronization schemes designed for timing recovery. This paper focuses on the derivation of simple performance limits for the estimation of the time delay of a noisy linearly modulated signal in the presence of various degrees of symbol correlation produced by the varioustransition densities in the symbol streams. The paper develops high- and low-signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) approximations of the so-called (Gaussian) unconditional Cramér–Rao bound (UCRB),as well as general expressions that are applicable in all ranges of SNR. The derived bounds are valid only for the class of quadratic, non-data-aided (NDA) timing recovery schemes. To illustrate the validity of the derived bounds, they are compared with the actual performance achieved by some well-known quadratic NDA timing recovery schemes. The impact of the symbol transitiondensity on the classical threshold effect present in NDA timing recovery schemes is also analyzed. Previous work on performancebounds for timing recovery from various authors is generalized and unified in this contribution.

Reconstruction of the join time-delay Doppler-scale reflectivity density in the wide-band regime. A frame theory based approach

The inverse scattering problem concerning the determination of the joint time-delayDoppler-scale reflectivity density characterizing continuous target environments is addressed by recourse to the generalized frame theory. A reconstruction formula,involving the echoes of a frame of outgoing signals and its corresponding reciprocalframe, is developed. A ‘‘realistic’’ situation with respect to the transmission ofa finite number of signals is further considered. In such a case, our reconstruction formula is shown to yield the orthogonal projection of the reflectivity density onto a subspace generated by the transmitted signals.

Reliability of the density functional approximation to describe the charge transfer and electrostatic complexes involved in the modeling of organic conducting polymers

Both the intermolecular interaction energies and the geometries for M ̄ thiophene, M ̄ pyrrole, M n+ ̄ thiophene, and M n+ ̄ pyrrole ͑with M = Li, Na, K, Ca, and Mg; and M n+ = Li+ , Na+ , K+ , Ca2+, and Mg2+͒ have been estimated using four commonly used density functional theory ͑DFT͒ methods: B3LYP, B3PW91, PBE, and MPW1PW91. Results have been compared to those provided by HF, MP2, and MP4 conventional ab initio methods. The PBE and MPW1PW91 are the only DFT methods able to provide a reasonable description of the M ̄ complexes. Regarding M n+ ̄ ␲ complexes, the four DFT methods have been proven to be adequate in the prediction of these electrostatically stabilized systems, even though they tend to overestimate the interaction energies.

Minimal requirements for parameters to be used for the development of predictive models for microbial source tracking. The example of the pair somatic coliphages and phages infecting Bacteroides

Several methods and approaches for measuring parameters to determine fecal sources of pollution in water have been developed in recent years. No single microbial or chemical parameter has proved sufficient to determine the source of fecal pollution. Combinations of parameters involving at least one discriminating indicator and one universal fecal indicator offer the most promising solutions for qualitative and quantitative analyses. The universal (nondiscriminating) fecal indicator provides quantitative information regarding the fecal load. The discriminating indicator contributes to the identification of a specific source. The relative values of the parameters derived from both kinds of indicators could provide information regarding the contribution to the total fecal load from each origin. It is also essential that both parameters characteristically persist in the environment for similar periods. Numerical analysis, such as inductive learning methods, could be used to select the most suitable and the lowest number of parameters to develop predictive models. These combinations of parameters provide information on factors affecting the models, such as dilution, specific types of animal source, persistence of microbial tracers, and complex mixtures from different sources. The combined use of the enumeration of somatic coliphages and the enumeration of Bacteroides-phages using different host specific strains (one from humans and another from pigs), both selected using the suggested approach, provides a feasible model for quantitative and qualitative analyses of fecal source identification.

Local thermodynamics and the generalized Gibbs-Duhem equation in systems with long-range interactions

The local thermodynamics of a system with long-range interactions in d dimensions is studied using the mean-field approximation. Long-range interactions are introduced through pair interaction potentials that decay as a power law in the interparticle distance. We compute the local entropy, Helmholtz free energy, and grand potential per particle in the microcanonical, canonical, and grand canonical ensembles, respectively. From the local entropy per particle we obtain the local equation of state of the system by using the condition of local thermodynamic equilibrium. This local equation of state has the form of the ideal gas equation of state, but with the density depending on the potential characterizing long-range interactions. By volume integration of the relation between the different thermodynamic potentials at the local level, we find the corresponding equation satisfied by the potentials at the global level. It is shown that the potential energy enters as a thermodynamic variable that modifies the global thermodynamic potentials. As a result, we find a generalized Gibbs-Duhem equation that relates the potential energy to the temperature, pressure, and chemical potential. For the marginal case where the power of the decaying interaction potential is equal to the dimension of the space, the usual Gibbs-Duhem equation is recovered. As examples of the application of this equation, we consider spatially uniform interaction potentials and the self-gravitating gas. We also point out a close relationship with the thermodynamics of small systems.

Differential growth responses to water balance of coexisting deciduous tree species are linked to wood density in a Bolivian tropical dry forest

A seasonal period of water deficit characterizes tropical dry forests (TDFs). There, sympatric tree species exhibit a diversity of growth rates, functional traits, and responses to drought, suggesting that each species may possess different strategies to grow under different conditions of water availability. The evaluation of the long-term growth responses to changes in the soil water balance should provide an understanding of how and when coexisting tree species respond to water deficit in TDFs. Furthermore, such differential growth responses may be linked to functional traits related to water storage and conductance. We used dendrochronology and climate data to retrospectively assess how the radial growth of seven coexisting deciduous tree species responded to the seasonal soil water balance in a Bolivian TDF. Linear mixed-effects models were used to quantify the relationships between basal area increment and seasonal water balance. We related these relationships with wood density and sapwood production to assess if they affect the growth responses to climate. The growth of all species responded positively to water balance during the wet season, but such responses differed among species as a function of their wood density. For instance, species with a strong growth response to water availability averaged a low wood density which may facilitate the storage of water in the stem. By contrast, species with very dense wood were those whose growth was less sensitive to water availability. Coexisting tree species thus show differential growth responses to changes in soil water balance during the wet season. Our findings also provide a link between wood density, a trait related to the ability of trees to store water in the stem, and wood formation in response to water availability.

Lung CD57+ cell density is increased in very severe COPD

Among all inflammatory cells involved in COPD, those with a cytolytic or elastolytic activity are thought to play a key role in the pathogenesis of the disease. However, there is no data about the infiltration of cells expressing the CD57 marker in small airways and parenchyma of COPD patients. In this study, surgical specimens from 43 subjects undergoing lung resection due to lung cancer (9 non-smokers, 18 smokers without COPD and 16 smokers with moderate COPD) and 16 patients undergoing double lung transplantation for very severe COPD were examined. CD57+ cells, neutrophils, macrophages and mast cells infiltrating bronchioles (epithelium, smooth muscle and connective tissue) and parenchymal interstitium were localized and quantified by immunohistochemical analysis. Compared to the other groups, the small airways of very severe COPD patients showed a significantly higher density of CD57+ cells, mainly infiltrated in the connective tissue (p=0.001), and a significantly higher density of neutrophils located characteristically in the epithelium (p=0.037). Also, the density of neutrophils was significantly higher in parenchyma of very severe COPD patients compared with the rest of the groups (p=0.001). Finally, there were significant correlations between the bronchiolar density of CD57+ cells and the FEV1 values (R=-0.43, p=0.022), as well as between the parenchymal density of neutrophils and macroscopic emphysema degree (R=0.43, p=0.048) in COPD groups. These results show that CD57+ cells may be involved in COPD pathogenesis, especially in the most severe stages of the disease.

Tailoring the surface density of silicon nanocrystals embedded in SiOx single layers

In this article, we explore the possibility of modifying the silicon nanocrystal areal density in SiOx single layers, while keeping constant their size. For this purpose, a set of SiOx monolayers with controlled thickness between two thick SiO2 layers has been fabricated, for four different compositions (x=1, 1.25, 1.5, or 1.75). The structural properties of the SiO x single layers have been analyzed by transmission electron microscopy (TEM) in planar view geometry. Energy-filtered TEM images revealed an almost constant Si-cluster size and a slight increase in the cluster areal density as the silicon content increases in the layers, while high resolution TEM images show that the size of the Si crystalline precipitates largely decreases as the SiO x stoichiometry approaches that of SiO2. The crystalline fraction was evaluated by combining the results from both techniques, finding a crystallinity reduction from 75% to 40%, for x = 1 and 1.75, respectively. Complementary photoluminescence measurements corroborate the precipitation of Si-nanocrystals with excellent emission properties for layers with the largest amount of excess silicon. The integrated emission from the nanoaggregates perfectly scales with their crystalline state, with no detectable emission for crystalline fractions below 40%. The combination of the structural and luminescence observations suggests that small Si precipitates are submitted to a higher compressive local stress applied by the SiO2 matrix that could inhibit the phase separation and, in turn, promotes the creation of nonradiative paths.

Changes in the phenolic content of low density lipoprotein after olive oil consumption in men. A randomized crossover controlled trial

Olive oil decreases the risk of CVD. This effect may be due to the fatty acid profile of the oil, but it may also be due to its antioxidant content which differs depending on the type of olive oil. In this study, the concentrations of oleic acid and antioxidants (phenolic compounds and vitamin E) in plasma and LDL were compared after consumption of three similar olive oils, but with differences in their phenolic content. Thirty healthy volunteers participated in a placebo-controlled, double-blind, crossover, randomized supplementation trial. Virgin, common, and refined olive oils were administered during three periods of 3 weeks separated by a 2-week washout period. Participants were requested to ingest a daily dose of 25 ml raw olive oil, distributed over the three meals of the day, during intervention periods. All three olive oils caused an increase in plasma and LDL oleic acid (P,0·05) content. Olive oils rich in phenolic compounds led to an increase in phenolic compounds in LDL (P,0·005). The concentration of phenolic compounds in LDL was directly correlated with the phenolic concentration in the olive oils. The increase in the phenolic content of LDL could account for the increase of the resistance of LDL to oxidation, and the decrease of the in vivo oxidized LDL, observed in the frame of this trial. Our results support the hypothesis that a daily intake of virgin olive oil promotes protective LDL changes ahead of its oxidation.

Characterization of Mechanically Alloyed Nanocrystalline Fe(Al): Crystallite Size and Dislocation Density

A nanostructured disordered Fe(Al) solid solution was obtained from elemental powders of Fe and Al using a high-energy ball mill. The transformations occurring in the material during milling were studied with the use of X-ray diffraction. In addition lattice microstrain, average crystallite size, dislocation density, and the lattice parameter were determined. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) was employed to examine the morphology of the samples as a function of milling times. Thermal behaviour of the milled powders was examined by differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). The results, as well as dissimilarity between calorimetric curves of the powders after 2 and 20 h of milling, indicated the formation of a nanostructured Fe(Al) solid solution