94 resultados para Bayesian hierarchical modelling


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Intra-urban inequalities in mortality have been infrequently analysed in European contexts. The aim of the present study was to analyse patterns of cancer mortality and their relationship with socioeconomic deprivation in small areas in 11 Spanish cities

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This paper presents a new numerical program able to model syntectonic sedimentation. The new model combines a discrete element model of the tectonic deformation of a sedimentary cover and a process-based model of sedimentation in a single framework. The integration of these two methods allows us to include the simulation of both sedimentation and deformation processes in a single and more effective model. The paper describes briefly the antecedents of the program, Simsafadim-Clastic and a discrete element model, in order to introduce the methodology used to merge both programs to create the new code. To illustrate the operation and application of the program, analysis of the evolution of syntectonic geometries in an extensional environment and also associated with thrust fault propagation is undertaken. Using the new code, much more complex and realistic depositional structures can be simulated together with a more complex analysis of the evolution of the deformation within the sedimentary cover, which is seen to be affected by the presence of the new syntectonic sediments.

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Water stress is a defining characteristic of Mediterranean ecosystems, and is likely to become more severe in the coming decades. Simulation models are key tools for making predictions, but our current understanding of how soil moisture controls ecosystem functioning is not sufficient to adequately constrain parameterisations. Canopy-scale flux data from four forest ecosystems with Mediterranean-type climates were used in order to analyse the physiological controls on carbon and water flues through the year. Significant non-stomatal limitations on photosynthesis were detected, along with lesser changes in the conductance-assimilation relationship. New model parameterisations were derived and implemented in two contrasting modelling approaches. The effectiveness of two models, one a dynamic global vegetation model ('ORCHIDEE'), and the other a forest growth model particularly developed for Mediterranean simulations ('GOTILWA+'), was assessed and modelled canopy responses to seasonal changes in soil moisture were analysed in comparison with in situ flux measurements. In contrast to commonly held assumptions, we find that changing the ratio of conductance to assimilation under natural, seasonally-developing, soil moisture stress is not sufficient to reproduce forest canopy CO2 and water fluxes. However, accurate predictions of both CO2 and water fluxes under all soil moisture levels encountered in the field are obtained if photosynthetic capacity is assumed to vary with soil moisture. This new parameterisation has important consequences for simulated responses of carbon and water fluxes to seasonal soil moisture stress, and should greatly improve our ability to anticipate future impacts of climate changes on the functioning of ecosystems in Mediterranean-type climates.

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This project addresses methodological and technological challenges in the development of multi-modal data acquisition and analysis methods for the representation of instrumental playing technique in music performance through auditory-motor patterning models. The case study is violin playing: a multi-modal database of violin performances has been constructed by recording different musicians while playing short exercises on different violins. The exercise set and recording protocol have been designed to sample the space defined by dynamics (from piano to forte) and tone (from sul tasto to sul ponticello), for each bow stroke type being played on each of the four strings (three different pitches per string) at two different tempi. The data, containing audio, video, and motion capture streams, has been processed and segmented to facilitate upcoming analyses. From the acquired motion data, the positions of the instrument string ends and the bow hair ribbon ends are tracked and processed to obtain a number of bowing descriptors suited for a detailed description and analysis of the bow motion patterns taking place during performance. Likewise, a number of sound perceptual attributes are computed from the audio streams. Besides the methodology and the implementation of a number of data acquisition tools, this project introduces preliminary results from analyzing bowing technique on a multi-modal violin performance database that is unique in its class. A further contribution of this project is the data itself, which will be made available to the scientific community through the repovizz platform.