Projeccions de canvi climatic per a Catalunya (NE Península Ibèrica). Part II: sintetitzant diverses metodologies = Climate change projections for Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula). Part II: Integrating several methodologies

The publication of the fourth IPCC report, as well as the number of research results reported in recent years about the regionalization of climate projections, were the driving forces to justify the update of the report on climate change in Catalonia. Specifically, the new IPCC report contains new climate projections at global and continental scales, while several international projects (especially European projects PRUDENCE and ENSEMBLES) have produced continental-scale climate projections, which allow for distinguishing between European regions. For Spain, some of these results have been included in a document commissioned by the“State Agency of Meteorology”. In addition, initiatives are being developed within Catalonia (in particular, by the Meteorological Service of Catalonia) to downscale climate projections in this area. The present paper synthesizes results of these and other previously published studies, as well as our own analysis of results of the ENSEMBLES project. The aim is to propose scenarios of variation in temperature and rainfall in Catalonia during the 21st Century. Thus, by the middle of this century temperatures could rise up to 2 C compared with that of the late 20th Century. These increases would probably be higher in summer than in winter, generalized across the territory but less pronounced in coastal areas. Rainfall, however, would not change much, but it could slightly decrease. Towards the end of the 21st Century, temperatures could rise to about 5 C above that of the last century, while the average rainfall could decrease by more than 10%. Increases in temperature would be higher in summer and in areas further from the coast. Rainfall would decrease especially during the summer, while it could even increase in winter in mountainous areas such as the Pyrenees.

Estimation of Water Circulation in a Mediterranean Salt Marsh and its Relationship with Flooding Causes

Variations in water volume in small depressions in Mediterranean salt marshes in Girona (Spain) are described and the potential causes for these variations analysed. Although the basins appear to be endorrheic, groundwater circulation is intense, as estimated from the difference between water volume observed and that expected from the balance precipitation / evaporation. The rate of variation in volume (VR = AV / VAt) may be used to estimate groundwater supply ('circulation'), since direct measurements of this parameter are impossible. Volume.conductivity figures can also be used to estimate the quantity of circulation, and to investigate the origin of water supplied to the system. The relationships between variations in the volume of water in the basins and the main causes of flooding are also analysed. Sea storms, rainfall levels and strong, dry northerly winds are suggested as the main causes of the variations in the volumes of basins. The relative importance assigned to these factors has changed, following the recent regulation of freshwater flows entering the system

Multimorbidity patterns in a national representative sample of the Spanish adult population.

BACKGROUND: In the context of population aging, multimorbidity has emerged as a growing concern in public health. However, little is known about multimorbidity patterns and other issues surrounding chronic diseases. The aim of our study was to examine multimorbidity patterns, the relationship between physical and mental conditions and the distribution of multimorbidity in the Spanish adult population. METHODS: Data from this cross-sectional study was collected from the COURAGE study. A total of 4,583 participants from Spain were included, 3,625 aged over 50. An exploratory factor analysis was conducted to detect multimorbidity patterns in the population over 50 years of age. Crude and adjusted binary logistic regressions were performed to identify individual associations between physical and mental conditions. RESULTS: THREE MULTIMORBIDITY PATTERNS ROSE: 'cardio-respiratory' (angina, asthma, chronic lung disease), 'mental-arthritis' (arthritis, depression, anxiety) and the 'aggregated pattern' (angina, hypertension, stroke, diabetes, cataracts, edentulism, arthritis). After adjusting for covariates, asthma, chronic lung disease, arthritis and the number of physical conditions were associated with depression. Angina and the number of physical conditions were associated with a higher risk of anxiety. With regard to multimorbidity distribution, women over 65 years suffered from the highest rate of multimorbidity (67.3%). CONCLUSION: Multimorbidity prevalence occurs in a high percentage of the Spanish population, especially in the elderly. There are specific multimorbidity patterns and individual associations between physical and mental conditions, which bring new insights into the complexity of chronic patients. There is need to implement patient-centered care which involves these interactions rather than merely paying attention to individual diseases.