Ecological fallacy in a time series context: evidence from the Spanish regional unemployment rates

The ecological fallacy (EF) is a common problem regional scientists have to deal with when using aggregated data in their analyses. Although there is a wide number of studies considering different aspects of this problem, little attention has been paid to the potential negative effects of the EF in a time series context. Using Spanish regional unemployment data, this paper shows that EF effects are not only observed at the cross-section level, but also in a time series framework. The empirical evidence obtained shows that analytical regional configurations are the least susceptible to time effects relative to both normative and random regional configurations, while normative configurations are an improvement over random ones.

Low-mass diffraction dissociation at the LHC ; role of the background

A dual model with a nonlinear proton Regge trajectory in the missing mass (M_X^2) channel is constructed. A background based on a direct-channel exotic trajectory, developed and applied earlier for the inclusive electron-proton cross section description in the nucleon resonance region, is used. The parameters of the model are determined from the extrapolations to earlier experiments. Predictions for the low-mass (2 < M_X^2 < 8GeV^2) diffraction dissociation cross sections at the LHC energies are given.