Out-of-sample forecast tests robust to the choice of window size

This paper proposes new methodologies for evaluating out-of-sample forecastingperformance that are robust to the choice of the estimation window size. The methodologies involve evaluating the predictive ability of forecasting models over a wide rangeof window sizes. We show that the tests proposed in the literature may lack the powerto detect predictive ability and might be subject to data snooping across differentwindow sizes if used repeatedly. An empirical application shows the usefulness of themethodologies for evaluating exchange rate models' forecasting ability.

On the tractability of the piecewise-linear approximation for general discrete-choice network revenue management

The choice network revenue management (RM) model incorporates customer purchase behavioras customers purchasing products with certain probabilities that are a function of the offeredassortment of products, and is the appropriate model for airline and hotel network revenuemanagement, dynamic sales of bundles, and dynamic assortment optimization. The underlyingstochastic dynamic program is intractable and even its certainty-equivalence approximation, inthe form of a linear program called Choice Deterministic Linear Program (CDLP) is difficultto solve in most cases. The separation problem for CDLP is NP-complete for MNL with justtwo segments when their consideration sets overlap; the affine approximation of the dynamicprogram is NP-complete for even a single-segment MNL. This is in contrast to the independentclass(perfect-segmentation) case where even the piecewise-linear approximation has been shownto be tractable. In this paper we investigate the piecewise-linear approximation for network RMunder a general discrete-choice model of demand. We show that the gap between the CDLP andthe piecewise-linear bounds is within a factor of at most 2. We then show that the piecewiselinearapproximation is polynomially-time solvable for a fixed consideration set size, bringing itinto the realm of tractability for small consideration sets; small consideration sets are a reasonablemodeling tradeoff in many practical applications. Our solution relies on showing that forany discrete-choice model the separation problem for the linear program of the piecewise-linearapproximation can be solved exactly by a Lagrangian relaxation. We give modeling extensionsand show by numerical experiments the improvements from using piecewise-linear approximationfunctions.

Movement evaluation of overerupted upper molars with absolute anchorage: An in-vitro study

Introduction: The overeruption of upper molars due to the premature loss of antagonist teeth can be treated with the help of miniscrews. The aim of this study was to evaluate the movement of a typodont molar according to the biomechanical approach used with miniscrews. Study design: The study was conducted with four plaster models filled with typodont wax. In each model we used one absolute anchorage on the palatal side and another on the buccal side in different positions, thus generating four different biomechanical systems. A force of 150 g was applied to each side of the resin tooth. Periapical radiographs were taken preintrusion and immediately after completion of the intrusion. Photographs were taken in both the sagittal and occlusal planes every 3 min. The radiographic films and photographs were measured and compared. Results: A vertical movement of the molar was observed in all the models, with system 4 showing the greatest movement. Rotation in the occlusal plane only occurred in system 2, while in system 1 there was a change in the axial axis of 37 degrees. Conclusions: The anchorage site and the combination of forces applied may determine the resulting tooth movement

Cooperation and game theory, free software or the #15m movement: Two examples for universities

Closing talk of the Open Access Week 2011 at the UOC, by Josep Jover. Why do altruistic strategies beat selfish ones in the spheres of both free software and the #15m movement? The #15m movement, like software but unlike tangible goods, cannot be owned. It can be used (by joining it) by an indeterminate number of people without depriving anyone else of the chance to do the same. And that turns everything on its head: how universities manage information and what their mission is in this new society. In the immediate future, universities will be valued not for the information they harbour, which will always be richer and more extensive beyond their walls, but rather for their capacity to create critical masses, whether of knowledge research, skill-building, or networks of peers... universities must implement the new model or risk becoming obsolete.

ZigBee/ZigBee PRO security assessment based on compromised cryptographic keys

Sensor networks have many applications in monitoring and controlling of environmental properties such as sound, acceleration, vibration and temperature. Due to limitedresources in computation capability, memory and energy, they are vulnerable to many kinds of attacks. The ZigBee specification based on the 802.15.4 standard, defines a set of layers specifically suited to sensor networks. These layers support secure messaging using symmetric cryptographic. This paper presents two different ways for grabbing the cryptographic key in ZigBee: remote attack and physical attack. It also surveys and categorizes some additional attacks which can be performed on ZigBee networks: eavesdropping, spoofing, replay and DoS attacks at different layers. From this analysis, it is shown that some vulnerabilities still in the existing security schema in ZigBee technology.

Programa de Càlcul Nutricional Professional (PCN Pro)

Aplicació de càlcul nutricional que permet les següents funcionalitats: Gestió d’Individus/Pacients permet organitzar els pacients en carpetes i subcarpetes, podent incorporar un històric de dades antropomètriques i dietètic i calcular els següents dades: IMC (Índex de Massa Corporal), Índex Cintura / Maluc, Estima el pes ideal orientatiu, Estimació de Despesa Energètica per: Harris-Benedict, FAO-OMS, Mifflin-St. Jeor. En base a la informació introduïda a la pestanya Activitat Física estima també la despesa energètica tenint en compte l’activitat física realitzada per l’individu (permet estimar la despesa energètica per 605 activitats).Estimació de necessitats energètiques en malalts per Long et al. i Ireton-Jones amb la base del càlcul del Metabolisme Basal de Harris-Benedict. Introduint els plecs (Plec Pectoral, Plec Bíceps, Plec Abdominal, Plec Supraespinal, Plec Cuixa anterior, Plec Cama medial, Plec Subescapular, Plec Tricipital), els diàmetres (Diàmetre Antero-Posterior Tòrax, Diàmetre Sagital, Diàmetre Húmer, Diàmetre Fèmur, Diàmetre Biacromial, Diàmetre Transversal Tòrax, Diàmetre Biileocrestal) i els perímetres (Perímetre Braç flexionat, Perímetre Braç, Perímetre Canell, Perímetre Cuixa, Perímetre Cama, Perímetre Tòrax) el programa és capaç de calcular el % de greix, massa òssia, massa muscular i massa residual per diferents fórmules (% Gas Yuhasz, % Gras Faulkner, % Gras Siri, % Gras Brozek, Distribució corporal de Drinkwater). També calcula el perímetre muscular del braç i la cama. També calcula el Pes Objectiu en relació a un % Greix objectiu, calculant quin pes hauria de tenir el pacient per un % de Greix donat.

Common Variants of TLR1 Associate with Organ Dysfunction and Sustained Pro- Inflammatory Responses during Sepsis

Background: Toll-like receptors (TLRs) are critical components for host pathogen recognition and variants in genes participating in this response influence susceptibility to infections. Recently, TLR1 gene polymorphisms have been found correlated with whole blood hyper-inflammatory responses to pathogen-associated molecules and associated with sepsis-associated multiorgan dysfunction and acute lung injury (ALI). We examined the association of common variants of TLR1 gene with sepsis-derived complications in an independent study and with serum levels for four inflammatory biomarker among septic patients. Methodology/Principal Findings: Seven tagging single nucleotide polymorphisms of the TLR1 gene were genotyped in samples from a prospective multicenter case-only study of patients with severe sepsis admitted into a network of intensive care units followed for disease severity. Interleukin (IL)-1 b, IL-6, IL-10, and C-reactive protein (CRP) serum levels were measured at study entry, at 48 h and at 7th day. Alleles -7202G and 248Ser, and the 248Ser-602Ile haplotype were associated with circulatory dysfunction among severe septic patients (0.001<=p <= 0.022), and with reduced IL-10 (0.012<= p <=0.047) and elevated CRP (0.011<= p <=0.036) serum levels during the first week of sepsis development. Additionally, the -7202GG genotype was found to be associated with hospital mortality (p =0.017) and ALI (p =0.050) in a combined analysis with European Americans, suggesting common risk effects among studies Conclusions/Significance: These results partially replicate and extend previous findings, supporting that variants of TLR1 gene are determinants of severe complications during sepsis.

The determinants of contractual choice for private involvement in infrastructure projects in the United States

Reliance on private partners to help provide infrastructure investment and service delivery is increasing in the United States. Numerous studies have examined the determinants of the degree of private participation in infrastructure projects as governed by contract type. We depart from this simple public/private dichotomy by examining a rich set of contractual arrangements. We utilize both municipal and state-level data on 472 projects of various types completed between 1985 and 2008. Our estimates indicate that infrastructure characteristics, particularly those that reflect stand alone versus network characteristics, are key factors influencing the extent of private participation. Fiscal variables, such as a jurisdiction’s relative debt level, and basic controls, such as population and locality of government, increase the degree of private participation, while a greater tax burden reduces private participation.

Recovery Risk and Labor Costs in Public-Private Partnerships : Contractual Choice in the US Water industry

We use an ordered logistic model to empirically examine the factors that explain varying degrees of private involvement in the U.S. water sector through public-private partnerships. Our estimates suggest that a variety of factors help explain greater private participation in this sector. We find that the risk to private participants regarding cost recovery is an important driver of private participation. The relative cost of labor is also a key factor in determining the degree of private involvement in the contract choice. When public wages are high relative to private wages, private participation is viewed as a source of cost savings. We thus find two main drivers of greater private involvement: one encouraging private participation by reducing risk, and another encouraging government to seek out private participation in lowering costs.

PARCES. Programa de Acompañamiento en pro del Rendimiento Académico en la Educación Superior.

Aplicación móvil de apoyo al seguimiento del rendimiento académico de los estudiantes del campus universitario ITFIP, Institución de Educación Superior Colombiana

PARCES : Programa de acompañamiento en pro del rendimiento académico en la educación superior

Solució mòbil (Android) aplicada al campus universitari del ITFIP (Universidad Colombiana) com a eina de suport per al seguiment del rendiment acadèmic d'estudiants com a estratègia per reduir els nivells de deserció.

The L-type voltage-gated calcium channel modulates microglial pro-inflammatory activity

Under pathological conditions, microglia, the resident CNS immune cells, become reactive and release pro-inflammatory cytokines and neurotoxic factors. We investigated whether this phenotypic switch includes changes in the expression of the L-type voltage-gated calcium channel (VGCC) in a rat model of N-methyl-d-aspartate-induced hippocampal neurodegeneration. Double immunohistochemistry and confocal microscopy evidenced that activated microglia express the L-type VGCC. We then analyzed whether BV2 microglia express functional L-type VGCC, and investigated the latter's role in microglial cytokine release and phagocytic capacity. Activated BV2 microglia express the CaV1.2 and CaV1.3 subunits of the L-type VGCC determined by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction, Western blot and immunocytochemistry. Depolarization with KCl induced a Ca2+ entry facilitated by Bay k8644 and partially blocked with nifedipine, which also reduced TNF-α and NO release by 40%. However, no nifedipine effect on BV2 microglia viability or phagocytic capacity was observed. Our results suggest that in CNS inflammatory processes, the L-type VGCC plays a specific role in the control of microglial secretory activity.

Assessing functional relations in single-case designs: Quantitative proposals in the context of the evidence-based movement

In the context of the evidence-based practices movement, the emphasis on computing effect sizes and combining them via meta-analysis does not preclude the demonstration of functional relations. For the latter aim, we propose to augment the visual analysis to add consistency to the decisions made on the existence of a functional relation without losing sight of the need for a methodological evaluation of what stimuli and reinforcement or punishment are used to control the behavior. Four options for quantification are reviewed, illustrated, and tested with simulated data. These quantifications include comparing the projected baseline with the actual treatment measurements, on the basis of either parametric or nonparametric statistics. The simulated data used to test the quantifications include nine data patterns in terms of the presence and type of effect and comprising ABAB and multiple baseline designs. Although none of the techniques is completely flawless in terms of detecting a functional relation only when it is present but not when it is absent, an option based on projecting split-middle trend and considering data variability as in exploratory data analysis proves to be the best performer for most data patterns. We suggest that the information on whether a functional relation has been demonstrated should be included in meta-analyses. It is also possible to use as a weight the inverse of the data variability measure used in the quantification for assessing the functional relation. We offer an easy to use code for open-source software for implementing some of the quantifications.

Consumer valuation of energy-saving features of residential air conditioners with hedonic and choice models

The promotion of energy-efficient appliances is necessary to reduce the energetic and environmental burden of the household sector. However, many studies have reported that a typical consumer underestimates the benefits of energy-saving investment on the purchase of household electric appliances. To analyze this energy-efficiency gap problem, many scholars have estimated implicit discount rates that consumers use for energy-consuming durables. Although both hedonic and choice models have been used in previous studies, a comparison between two models has not yet been done. This study uses point of sale data about Japanese residential air conditioners and estimates implicit discounts rates with both hedonic and choice models. Both models demonstrate that a typical consumer underinvests in energy efficiency. Although choice models estimate a lower implicit discount rate than hedonic models, the latter models estimate the values of other product characteristics more consistently than choice models.