82 resultados para financial projection


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This paper explores the origins of Andorra’s financial cluster. It shows that the free movement of currency, the protection of infant industry, and geographical concentration lie at the foundation of the cluster’s competitive advantage. Drawing on a new set of data, the paper also provides for the first time an estimate of the total deposits held by Andorra’s banks between 1931 and 2007. Based on this new information, the paper reaches the conclusion that the development of the cluster went through four distinct phases in which large companies, acting as leaders, played an important role in enhancing the cluster’s business capabilities.

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[spa] Este trabajo realiza un estudio empírico sobre los efectos, que se señalan en las discusiones teóricas, de la utilización del valor razonable (VR) frente al coste histórico (CH), utilizando dos muestras de explotaciones agrícolas, una de las cuales valora sus activos biológicos a CH y la otra a VR. No se encontraron diferencias significativas en los beneficios e ingresos entre ambas muestras, ni siquiera en sus volatilidades. Tampoco se encontraron diferencias significativas en rentabilidad, manipulación contable, ni en el poder de ambos criterios de valoración para predecir los flujos de tesorería. Por el contrario, la mayor parte de los tests realizados revelan un mayor poder de los beneficios calculados bajo el VR para la predicción de los beneficios futuros, respecto de cuando son calculados bajo el CH. El estudio proporciona también evidencia empírica de prácticas contables defectuosas de CH en el sector agrícola, concluyendo que el VR puede representar un criterio de valoración interesante para un sector, como el agrícola, caracterizado por el predominio de pequeñas explotaciones familiares.

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[spa] Este trabajo realiza un estudio empírico sobre los efectos, que se señalan en las discusiones teóricas, de la utilización del valor razonable (VR) frente al coste histórico (CH), utilizando dos muestras de explotaciones agrícolas, una de las cuales valora sus activos biológicos a CH y la otra a VR. No se encontraron diferencias significativas en los beneficios e ingresos entre ambas muestras, ni siquiera en sus volatilidades. Tampoco se encontraron diferencias significativas en rentabilidad, manipulación contable, ni en el poder de ambos criterios de valoración para predecir los flujos de tesorería. Por el contrario, la mayor parte de los tests realizados revelan un mayor poder de los beneficios calculados bajo el VR para la predicción de los beneficios futuros, respecto de cuando son calculados bajo el CH. El estudio proporciona también evidencia empírica de prácticas contables defectuosas de CH en el sector agrícola, concluyendo que el VR puede representar un criterio de valoración interesante para un sector, como el agrícola, caracterizado por el predominio de pequeñas explotaciones familiares.

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There is an intense debate on the convenience of moving from historical cost (HC) toward the fair value (FV) principle. The debate and academic research is usually concerned with financial instruments, but the IAS 41 requirement of fair valuation for biological assets brings it into the agricultural domain. This paper performs an empirical study with a sample of Spanish farms valuing biological assets at HC and a sample applying FV, finding no significant differences between both valuation methods to assess future cash flows. However, most tests reveal more predictive power of future earnings under fair valuation of biological assets, which is not explained by differences in volatility of earnings and profitability. The study also evidences the existence of flawed HC accounting practices for biological assets in agriculture, which suggests scarce information content of this valuation method in the predominant small business units existing in the agricultural sector in advanced Western countries

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It is commonly believed that a fiscal expansion raises interest rates. However, these crowding out effects of deficits have been found to be small or non-existent. One explanation is that financial integration offsets interest rate differentials on globalised bond markets. This paper measures the degree of integration of government bond markets, using spatial modelling techniques to take this spillover on financial markets into account. Our main finding is that the crowding out effect on domestic interest rates is significant, but is reduced by spillover across borders. This spillover is important in major crises or in periods of coordinated policy actions. This result is generally robust to various measures of cross-country linkages. We find spillover to be much stronger among EU countries.

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This paper measures the connectedness in EMU sovereign market volatility between April 1999 and January 2014, in order to monitor stress transmission and to identify episodes of intensive spillovers from one country to the others. To this end, we first perform a static and dynamic analysis to measure the total volatility connectedness in the entire period (the system-wide approach) using a framework recently proposed by Diebold and Yılmaz (2014). Second, we make use of a dynamic analysis to evaluate the net directional connectedness for each country and apply panel model techniques to investigate its determinants. Finally, to gain further insights, we examine the timevarying behaviour of net pair-wise directional connectedness at different stages of the recent sovereign debt crisis.

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Social, technological, and economic time series are divided by events which are usually assumed to be random, albeit with some hierarchical structure. It is well known that the interevent statistics observed in these contexts differs from the Poissonian profile by being long-tailed distributed with resting and active periods interwoven. Understanding mechanisms generating consistent statistics has therefore become a central issue. The approach we present is taken from the continuous-time random-walk formalism and represents an analytical alternative to models of nontrivial priority that have been recently proposed. Our analysis also goes one step further by looking at the multifractal structure of the interevent times of human decisions. We here analyze the intertransaction time intervals of several financial markets. We observe that empirical data describe a subtle multifractal behavior. Our model explains this structure by taking the pausing-time density in the form of a superstatistics where the integral kernel quantifies the heterogeneous nature of the executed tasks. A stretched exponential kernel provides a multifractal profile valid for a certain limited range. A suggested heuristic analytical profile is capable of covering a broader region.