Predictive ability of severe rainfall events over Catalonia for the year 2008

This paper analyses the predictive ability of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) and the so-called "poor-man" rainfall probabilistic forecasts (RPF). With this aim, the full set of warnings issued by the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC) for potentially-dangerous events due to severe precipitation has been analysed for the year 2008. For each of the 37 warnings, the QPFs obtained from the limited-area model MM5 have been verified against hourly precipitation data provided by the rain gauge network covering Catalonia (NE of Spain), managed by SMC. For a group of five selected case studies, a QPF comparison has been undertaken between the MM5 and COSMO-I7 limited-area models. Although MM5's predictive ability has been examined for these five cases by making use of satellite data, this paper only shows in detail the heavy precipitation event on the 9¿10 May 2008. Finally, the "poor-man" rainfall probabilistic forecasts (RPF) issued by SMC at regional scale have also been tested against hourly precipitation observations. Verification results show that for long events (>24 h) MM5 tends to overestimate total precipitation, whereas for short events (¿24 h) the model tends instead to underestimate precipitation. The analysis of the five case studies concludes that most of MM5's QPF errors are mainly triggered by very poor representation of some of its cloud microphysical species, particularly the cloud liquid water and, to a lesser degree, the water vapor. The models' performance comparison demonstrates that MM5 and COSMO-I7 are on the same level of QPF skill, at least for the intense-rainfall events dealt with in the five case studies, whilst the warnings based on RPF issued by SMC have proven fairly correct when tested against hourly observed precipitation for 6-h intervals and at a small region scale. Throughout this study, we have only dealt with (SMC-issued) warning episodes in order to analyse deterministic (MM5 and COSMO-I7) and probabilistic (SMC) rainfall forecasts; therefore we have not taken into account those episodes that might (or might not) have been missed by the official SMC warnings. Therefore, whenever we talk about "misses", it is always in relation to the deterministic LAMs' QPFs.

Semiclassical theory of shot noise in ballistic n+in+ semiconductor structures: relevance of Pauli and long range Coulomb interactions

We work out a semiclassical theory of shot noise in ballistic n+-i-n+ semiconductor structures aiming at studying two fundamental physical correlations coming from Pauli exclusion principle and long-range Coulomb interaction. The theory provides a unifying scheme which, in addition to the current-voltage characteristics, describes the suppression of shot noise due to Pauli and Coulomb correlations in the whole range of system parameters and applied bias. The whole scenario is summarized by a phase diagram in the plane of two dimensionless variables related to the sample length and contact chemical potential. Here different regions of physical interest can be identified where only Coulomb or only Pauli correlations are active, or where both are present with different relevance. The predictions of the theory are proven to be fully corroborated by Monte Carlo simulations.

The Effect of a threshold proportional reinsurance strategy on ruin probabilities

[spa] En un modelo de Poisson compuesto, definimos una estrategia de reaseguro proporcional de umbral : se aplica un nivel de retención k1 siempre que las reservas sean inferiores a un determinado umbral b, y un nivel de retención k2 en caso contrario. Obtenemos la ecuación íntegro-diferencial para la función Gerber-Shiu, definida en Gerber-Shiu -1998- en este modelo, que nos permite obtener las expresiones de la probabilidad de ruina y de la transformada de Laplace del momento de ruina para distintas distribuciones de la cuantía individual de los siniestros. Finalmente presentamos algunos resultados numéricos.

Petróleo y gas en África: viejas realidades, nuevos escenarios

[cat] En els últims temps es parla molt del nou paper dels hidrocarburs d'Àfrica, fins i tot s'al·ludeix a un oil rush o a un african oil scramble , que inevitablement desembocarà en una confrontació bipolar entre la Xina i els Estats Units, pel control de les reserves de petroli del subsòl del continent africà. Així, el propòsit d'aquest text és, en primer lloc, realitzar una anàlisi descriptiva que ajudi a valorar la hipòtesi d'aquest african oil scramble. A continuación, amb les dades obtingudes, es discutirà sobre la possibilitat de que aquest fenomen desemboqui en un escenari de confrontació xinoamericana. Aquesta especulació ens durà a concloure que hi ha suficients indicis per a argumentar que el joc petrolífer africà podria desenvolupar-se en un escenari marcat per la multilateralitat.

La probabilidad de supervivencia en un modelo con reaseguro proporcional de umbral

[spa] En este artículo presentamos una nueva estrategia de reaseguro, a la que denominamos estrategia de reaseguro umbral, que actúa de forma diferente en función del nivel de las reservas. Así, para unos niveles de las reservas inferiores a un determinado nivel, el gestor decide aplicar un reaseguro proporcional, y para niveles superiores, al considerar que se ha alcanzado cierta solvencia en la cartera, opta por no ceder ningún porcentaje del riesgo. El análisis del efecto de la introducción del reaseguro umbral sobre la probabilidad de supervivencia, y su comparación con el reaseguro proporcional y la opción de no reasegurar, nos permite hallar estrategias de reaseguro equivalentes desde el punto de vista de la solvencia. Palabras clave: teoría del riesgo, reaseguro de umbral, reaseguro proporcional, probabilidad de supervivencia.

Reparto de dividendos en una cartera de seguros no vida : obtención de la barrera constante óptima bajo criterios económico-actuariales

Consideramos el proceso clásico del riesgo modificado con la introducción de una barrera dedividendos constante, de tal forma que cuando el proceso de reservas alcanza la barrera se pagandividendos hasta la ocurrencia del siguiente siniestro. En la literatura actuarial se plantea el cálculo de W(u,b) definida como la esperanza del valor actual, a un tanto constante, de los dividendos repartidos hasta el momento de ruina en un modelo con barrera constante b(t)=b. Se calcula el valor de la barrera que maximiza dicha esperanza. En este trabajo se realizan dos contribuciones en este tema. En primer lugar se profundiza en el análisis de W(u,b), proponiéndose combinaciones de las variables de control que proporcionan resultados económicamente óptimos. En segundo lugar se definen nuevas medidas relacionadas con W(u,b) que la complementan y pueden ayudar al decisor en el proceso de definición de las variables de control.

Discrete analysis of dividend payments in a non-life insurance portfolio

The process of free reserves in a non-life insurance portfolio as defined in the classical model of risk theory is modified by the introduction of dividend policies that set maximum levels for the accumulation of reserves. The first part of the work formulates the quantification of the dividend payments via the expectation of their current value under diferent hypotheses. The second part presents a solution based on a system of linear equations for discrete dividend payments in the case of a constant dividend barrier, illustrated by solving a specific case.

Density modes in spherical 4He shells

We compute the density-fluctuation spectrum of spherical 4HeN shells adsorbed on the outer surface of Cn fullerenes. The excitation spectrum is obtained within the random-phase approximation, with particle-hole elementary excitations and effective interaction extracted from a density-functional description of the shell structure. The presence of one or two solid helium layers adjacent to the adsorbing fullerene is phenomenologically accounted for. We illustrate our results for a selection of numbers of adsorbed atoms on C20, C60, and C120. The hydrodynamical model that has proven successful to describe helium excitations in the bulk and in restricted geometries permits to perform a rather exhaustive analysis of various fluid spherical systems, namely, spheres, cavities, free bubbles, and bound shells of variable size.

Velocity cross-correlations and atomic momentum transfer in simple liquids with different potential cores

Time correlation functions between the velocity of a tagged particle and velocities of particles within specified ranges of initial separations have been obtained by molecular dynamics simulation. These correlation functions have allowed us to analyze the momentum transfer between particles in different coordination shells. Two simple liquids at very different densities and two purely repulsive potentials with very different softnesses have been considered. The longitudinal correlations, which are the velocity cross-correlations along the initial direction defined by the centers of two given particles, have been calculated separately. It has been proven that these correlations should be attributed to particles both in front of and behind the central one. As with propagating longitudinal modes, they are strongly dependent on the softness of the potential core. Some characteristic features of the velocity correlation functions after the initial rise should be related to nonlongitudinal correlations. It has been shown that velocity cross-correlations between distinct particles cannot only be attributed to the direct interactions among particles, but also to the motions induced by the movement of a tagged particle on their neighbors.

Organisational adaptation of multi-agent systems in a peer-to-peer scenario

Organisations in Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) have proven to be successful in regulating agent societies. Nevertheless, changes in agents' behaviour or in the dynamics of the environment may lead to a poor fulfilment of the system's purposes, and so the entire organisation needs to be adapted. In this paper we focus on endowing the organisation with adaptation capabilities, instead of expecting agents to be capable of adapting the organisation by themselves. We regard this organisational adaptation as an assisting service provided by what we call the Assistance Layer. Our generic Two Level Assisted MAS Architecture (2-LAMA) incorporates such a layer. We empirically evaluate this approach by means of an agent-based simulator we have developed for the P2P sharing network domain. This simulator implements 2-LAMA architecture and supports the comparison between different adaptation methods, as well as, with the standard BitTorrent protocol. In particular, we present two alternatives to perform norm adaptation and one method to adapt agents'relationships. The results show improved performance and demonstrate that the cost of introducing an additional layer in charge of the system's adaptation is lower than its benefits.

The Effect of a threshold proportional reinsurance strategy on ruin probabilities

[spa] En un modelo de Poisson compuesto, definimos una estrategia de reaseguro proporcional de umbral : se aplica un nivel de retención k1 siempre que las reservas sean inferiores a un determinado umbral b, y un nivel de retención k2 en caso contrario. Obtenemos la ecuación íntegro-diferencial para la función Gerber-Shiu, definida en Gerber-Shiu -1998- en este modelo, que nos permite obtener las expresiones de la probabilidad de ruina y de la transformada de Laplace del momento de ruina para distintas distribuciones de la cuantía individual de los siniestros. Finalmente presentamos algunos resultados numéricos.

La probabilidad de supervivencia en un modelo con reaseguro proporcional de umbral

[spa] En este artículo presentamos una nueva estrategia de reaseguro, a la que denominamos estrategia de reaseguro umbral, que actúa de forma diferente en función del nivel de las reservas. Así, para unos niveles de las reservas inferiores a un determinado nivel, el gestor decide aplicar un reaseguro proporcional, y para niveles superiores, al considerar que se ha alcanzado cierta solvencia en la cartera, opta por no ceder ningún porcentaje del riesgo. El análisis del efecto de la introducción del reaseguro umbral sobre la probabilidad de supervivencia, y su comparación con el reaseguro proporcional y la opción de no reasegurar, nos permite hallar estrategias de reaseguro equivalentes desde el punto de vista de la solvencia. Palabras clave: teoría del riesgo, reaseguro de umbral, reaseguro proporcional, probabilidad de supervivencia.

Reparto de dividendos en una cartera de seguros no vida : obtención de la barrera constante óptima bajo criterios económico-actuariales

Consideramos el proceso clásico del riesgo modificado con la introducción de una barrera dedividendos constante, de tal forma que cuando el proceso de reservas alcanza la barrera se pagandividendos hasta la ocurrencia del siguiente siniestro. En la literatura actuarial se plantea el cálculo de W(u,b) definida como la esperanza del valor actual, a un tanto constante, de los dividendos repartidos hasta el momento de ruina en un modelo con barrera constante b(t)=b. Se calcula el valor de la barrera que maximiza dicha esperanza. En este trabajo se realizan dos contribuciones en este tema. En primer lugar se profundiza en el análisis de W(u,b), proponiéndose combinaciones de las variables de control que proporcionan resultados económicamente óptimos. En segundo lugar se definen nuevas medidas relacionadas con W(u,b) que la complementan y pueden ayudar al decisor en el proceso de definición de las variables de control.

Discrete analysis of dividend payments in a non-life insurance portfolio

The process of free reserves in a non-life insurance portfolio as defined in the classical model of risk theory is modified by the introduction of dividend policies that set maximum levels for the accumulation of reserves. The first part of the work formulates the quantification of the dividend payments via the expectation of their current value under diferent hypotheses. The second part presents a solution based on a system of linear equations for discrete dividend payments in the case of a constant dividend barrier, illustrated by solving a specific case.

Comparative effects of oleoyl-estrone and a specific b3-adrenergic agonist (CL316, 243) on the expression of genes involved in energy metabolism of rat white adipose tissue

Background: The combination of oleoyl-estrone (OE) and a selective b3-adrenergic agonist (B3A; CL316,243) treatment in rats results in a profound and rapid wasting of body reserves (lipid). Methods: In the present study we investigated the effect of OE (oral gavage) and/or B3A (subcutaneous constant infusion) administration for 10 days to overweight male rats, compared with controls, on three distinct white adipose tissue (WAT) sites: subcutaneous inguinal, retroperitoneal and epididymal. Tissue weight, DNA (and, from these values cellularity), cAMP content and the expression of several key energy handling metabolism and control genes were analyzed and computed in relation to the whole site mass. Results: Both OE and B3A significantly decreased WAT mass, with no loss of DNA (cell numbers). OE decreased and B3A increased cAMP. Gene expression patterns were markedly different for OE and B3A. OE tended to decrease expression of most genes studied, with no changes (versus controls) of lipolytic but decrease of lipogenic enzyme genes. The effects of B3A were widely different, with a generalized increase in the expression of most genes, including the adrenergic receptors, and, especially the uncoupling protein UCP1. Discussion: OE and B3A, elicit widely different responses in WAT gene expression, end producing similar effects, such as shrinking of WAT, loss of fat, maintenance of cell numbers. OE acted essentially on the balance of lipolysislipogenesis and the blocking of the uptake of substrates; its decrease of synthesis favouring lipolysis. B3A induced a shotgun increase in the expression of most regulatory systems in the adipocyte, an effect that in the end favoured again the loss of lipid; this barely selective increase probably produces inefficiency, which coupled with the increase in UCP1 expression may help WAT to waste energy through thermogenesis. Conclusions: There were considerable differences in the responses of the three WAT sites. OE in general lowered gene expression and stealthily induced a substrate imbalance. B3A increasing the expression of most genes enhanced energy waste through inefficiency rather than through specific pathway activation. There was not a synergistic effect between OE and B3A in WAT, but their combined action increased WAT energy waste.